I will be doing live commentary of the ladies free taking place at the 2009 Cup of China. Below is the startlist and note that Binshu Xu has withdrawn.
WD Binshu XU CHN
12 37.08
2 Diane SZMIETT CAN
11 44.24
3 Bingwa GENG CHN
10 47.64
4 Beatrisa LIANG USA
9 50.76
5 Yan LIU CHN
8 51.28
6 Joannie ROCHETTE CAN
7 52.12
Warm-Up Group 2
7 Fumie SUGURI JPN
6 55.46
8 Rachael FLATT USA
5 58.80
9 Akiko SUZUKI JPN
4 59.52
10 Carolina KOSTNER ITA
3 61.12
11 Kiira KORPI FIN
2 61.20
12 Mirai NAGASU USA
1 62.20
Warm-up group 1 has taken to the ice. Geng in red, yellow, and black dress. Liang in dark blue. Liang-clean 2A.
Rochette in same blue dress from WTT. Yan Liu in red.
Warm-up has concluded.
Diane Szmiett (Canada)
white and silver dress
3Z-OK
3S-solid
3F-leaning forward but held on; possible hand down
3T+2T+2T-good
3S(swingy free leg but held on)+2T-landed
2A+2A+SEQ-little speed coming out of either jump
Very poor spiral
3T-held on, big smile
Footwork not musical, slow
Last spin traveled back to Canada
TES: 55.64
PCS: 44.40
Total: 100.04
Grand Total: 144.28
Bingwa Geng (China)
3Z+2T-good takeoff edge, forward on landing of 3Z
3F-long entrance, fell out of but rotated
3S-fall; possible UR
2A+2T-good
good spin combo
Spiral sequence-extension needs improvement
3Z-good; possible slight UR
2A-step out
3T-fall
good donut spin
footwork is fairly simplistic
Weak layback position; great speed going into catch foot and Bielmann spins
TES: 38.28
PCS: 37.28
Ded: -2.00
Total: 73.56
Grand Total: 121.20
Rank: 2
Beatrisa Liang (USA)
3Z-fall; possible UR
3F-preceded by spiral; swingy free leg but good
1R-three turn entrance into it
2A-good control of landing edge
deathdrop to pancake spin-good
3F+2T-good
Spiral-extension is not as strong as 2007 IIRC but is decent
3Z+2T-good; possibly double footed first jump
footwork-good in places; intensity and speed not continuous
3T-held on
good final spin combo
TES: 39.15
PCS: 42.48
Ded: -1.00
Total: 80.63
Grand Total: 131.39
Rank: 2
Yan Liu (China)
2Z-very simplistic entrance
1F
3R+2A+SEQ-little speed coming out of either jump but clean jumping pass
Weak Bielmann
Adequate spiral
3S+2T+1R-popped last jump but otherwise good
3T+2A+SEQ-good
2A-low but clean
Footwork is extremely bland
2S-preceded by spiral; bailed out mid air and it will be counted UR as a single salchow
Final spin combo-traveled
Fairly clean skater but her transitions mark should be no higher than a 1.0. There was nothing interesting going on in-between her major elements.
TES: 39.84
PCS: 41.68
Total: 81.52
Grand Total: 132.80
Rank: 2
Joannie Rochette (Canada)
3Z-forward on landing; possible UR
3F-lovely
3R-good
good fast spin
Adequate spiral placed at awkward point in the music
3Z+2T-decent; possible UR
3T+2S+SEQ-I'm not positive if first jump was 3T but I think it was
2A-fall backward
3S-good
Very detailed program choreographically and demonstrated tremendous use of skating skills and transitions. Interpretation of the music is very strong also.
TES: 53.42
PCS: 58.64
Ded: -1.00
Total: 111.06
Grand Total: 163.18
Rank: 1
Warm-up group two out on ice. Suzuki singled flip. Kostner in same dress from TEB. Kostner just took a hard fall on 3R.
Nagasu in red. Korpi in same dress from TEB. Nagasu just landed 3Z. One minute left in warm-up.
Fumie Suguri (Japan)
3Z+2T-slight flutz but good
3F-held on; possible two-foot
2A-lovely
Good speed in spin
Relatively weak spiral
3S-UR, struggled valiantly to keep free leg up off the ice
1Z-flutzed
3F-heavily two-footed; possible UR
2A+2A+SEQ-good
Footwork didn't always correspond to intensity of music
Final spin combo-good speed, some positions weak
TES: 39.89
PCS: 50.64
Total: 90.53
Grand Total: 145.99
Rank: 2
Rachael Flatt (USA)
Dressed in red and gold
2A-preceded by spiral; landed
3F+2T-a little off on 3F landing but otherwise good
3Z-step out, possible UR, way off-axis in air
Spin combos weak positions
3R-solid
2Z
3F-step out
3S+2T+2R-landed
Very nice footwork, the only remotely interesting aspect of the program choreographically.
Not a great skate. I would say this is the flattest of Flatt's programs so far, footwork excepted. Jumps look lower and not as centered in the air.
TES: 48.51
PCS: 50.40
Total: 98.91
Grand Total: 157.71
Rank: 2
Akiko Suzuki (Japan)
3Z+2T-swingy free leg on lutz but otherwise OK
2A+2A+SEQ-good
Good centering on spin; positions weak
Adequate spiral
3F-very calm landing
3Z-good landing; possible flutz
3R+2A+SEQ-somewhat wild landing on 2A but clean
3S-low but landed cleanly
Excellent energy in footwork
Lovely program!
TES: 64.58
PCS: 52.56
Total: 117.14
Grand Total: 176.66
Rank: 1
Carolina Kostner (Italy)
3F-fall out; possible UR
1Z
2A+2T-nice
Good position on camel; sit spin not low enough
Excellent spiral; nice transition with choreography between Y-scale spiral and standard spiral
3T-good
3R-unsteady but held on
2A-wobbled on landing and sharply put free leg down onto the ice
3S-fall; possible UR
Great footwork; lots of one foot skating
Good speed and expression throughout
TES: 38.38
PCS: 55.68
Ded: -1.00
Total: 93.08
Grand Total: 154.18
Rank: 4
Kiira Korpi (Finland)
2Z-rough landing
3S+2T-good
3R-good
good spin combo
1S-Bailed out mid-air; landed on two feet
Adequate spiral
3R+2T+2R-clean
2A+2T-good
Flying sit spin-doesn't maintain speed and low position when she changes her arms and focus to the side
Footwork fairly simplistic
2A-held on
Much improved from TEB. Expression and maturity has improved as well.
TES: 49.51
PCS: 52.56
Total: 102.07
Grand Total: 163.27
Rank: 2
Mirai Nagasu (USA)
3Z+2T+2R(looked UR)-otherwise clean
2A+3T(borderline for downgrade)-wobbly landing
3F(possible UR)+2T-landed
Good spins as usual
Great spiral extension
3Z-slightly off-axis landing but held on
3R-bailed out mid-air and fell
2A-low but landed
3T-UR
Excellent final spin
TES: 42.90
PCS: 51.28
Ded: -1.00
Total: 93.18
Grand Total: 155.38
Rank: 5
Final Standings
1 Akiko SUZUKI JPN 176.66
2 Kiira KORPI FIN 163.27
3 Joannie ROCHETTE CAN 163.18 7 2
4 Rachael FLATT USA 157.71 5 5
5 Mirai NAGASU USA 155.38 1 6
6 Carolina KOSTNER ITA 154.18 3 7
7 Fumie SUGURI JPN 145.99 6 8
8 Diane SZMIETT CAN 144.28 11 4
9 Yan LIU CHN 132.80 8 9
10 Beatrisa LIANG USA 131.39 9 10
11 Bingwa GENG CHN 121.20 10 11
Congratulations Akiko!
Showing posts with label Carolina Kostner. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Carolina Kostner. Show all posts
Friday, October 30, 2009
COC Ladies SP Commentary
Here is my commentary for the ladies SP which took place earlier today in Beijing. I am watching this event without knowing the results beforehand and this page will be updated as I see the competitors skate.
Skate Order:
Warm-Up Group 1
1.) Bingwa Geng (China)
2.) Binshu Xu (China)
3.) Yan Liu (China)
4.) Diane Szmiett (Canada)
5.) Beatrisa Liang (USA)
6.) Mirai Nagasu (USA)
Arena is about half full. Same arena as last year's Cup of China. Binshu Xu in pink top with blue skirt. Yan Liu in light blue. Szmiett in red; Liang in black; Nagasu in black and gold.
Liang looks a little out of shape but just landed a triple toe. Nagasu did a triple flip which looked slightly UR. Yan Liu stumbled out of her triple loop slightly.
Nagasu did a triple lutz with a slight fall out and inside edge takeoff. Liu (I believe) did a 3Z at the end of the warm-up.
Bingwa Geng (China)
Purple dress
Looks like a young Caroline Zhang, and is skating to Meditation from Thais
3S-good steps before, entrance was long but the jump had great height and a good landing
3Z-fall out, +1T-won't get credit for 2nd jump, put her foot down in-between, takeoff edge looked clean
2A-lovely
spiral-extension is good, not great
Footwork-nice
Good donut spin
Layback position is too turned in but her Bielmann is great
Nice ending pose
She will get marked down quite a bit for her mistake on the triple lutz but otherwise a very nice performance. Geng could be a legitimate contender at major competitions in the future. Good choreography, nice use of arms, and did express herself well in places.
TES: 28.20
PCS: 19.44
Total: 47.64
PCS are a little low IMO but scores at this event were rather tight last year.
Binshu Xu (China)
3T-fall; likely UR
3S-solid; slightly UR
spin combo-good speed; weak positions on layback and Bielmann
spiral-extension is decent; skating edge is very wobbly
2A-nice
last spin combo-good speed but traveled
Very weak projection to the audience.
TES: 19.36
PCS: 18.72
Ded: -1.00
Total: 37.08
Rank: 2
Yan Liu (China)
IIRC the same as last year's SP
3Z+2T-a little slow coming out of 3Z and possibly flutzed; otherwise clean
3R-good
Rough transition from standard spiral to catch-foot spiral
2A-coming after front spiral; very good
good layback to catch-foot spin
footwork-relatively easy and not very continuous
Very flat program artistically; she is a mature skater but has no relation to the audience whatsoever. However, it was a very fluid, clean skate, and it was certainly one of her best short programs as of late.
TES: 30.00
PCS: 21.28
Total: 51.28
Rank: 1
Diane Szmiett (Canada)
Skating to West Side Story
3F+2T-long entrance but otherwise good
3Z-two footed first and then fell
2A-fell out of
spin combo-traveled in beginning but centered it afterward
Very poor attempt at Charlotte Spiral (if that was even what she was trying)
Relatively slow footwork
Great speed in catch foot spin at the end
No emotional depth to program; speed is decent.
TES: 25.08
PCS: 21.16
Ded: -2.00
Total: 44.24
Rank: 3
Beatrisa Liang (USA)
Tango de Roxanne
3Z+2T-good
3F-little wobbly, very slight UR
layback to catch foot spin combo-very good
spiral-good extension
2A- step out
good spin combo
footwork-fall
This program is a great one for her and really enables her to showcase expression, drama, and musicality. A shame about the mistakes at the end but at least it started off well.
TES: 29.04
PCS: 22.72
Ded: -1.00
Total: 50.76
Rank: 2
Mirai Nagasu (USA)
Pirates of the Carribean soundtrack
3Z(likely UR)+2T-landed; also looked flutzed
3F-good
Spiral-great extension and speed
layback to catch-foot to Bielmann spin-excellent
2A-from Ina Bauer-very good
footwork-good energy
Good last spin combo
Her growth spurt has caused her to under rotate jumps more so than when she was tinier but it has helped her out tremendously with speed. She travels across the rink very quickly no matter if it is stroking, footwork, or gliding across the ice. Good skate.
TES: 37.40 ( I guess she got the lutz credited?)
PCS: 24.80
Total: 62.20 (Nice!)
Rank: 1
Warm-Up Group 2
7.) Akiko Suzuki (Japan)
8.) Fumie Suguri (Japan)
9.) Kiira Korpi (Finland)
10.) Rachael Flatt (USA)
11.) Joannie Rochette (Canada)
12.) Carolina Kostner (Italy)
Flatt in pink; Korpi in a light green/yellow; Rochette in black.
Flatt did 2A; landed but looked low. It looked like Rochette did 3Z+3T with a slight wobble on the landing of the 2nd jump. Flatt doubled her lutz. Flatt just did 3Z; looked lower than usual but landed.
Akiko Suzuki (Japan)
3Z+2T-slight loss of speed coming out of 3Z but otherwise good
3F-good
flying camel-slightly off balance but got her centering back
Spiral sequence-adequate
2A-good control on the landing edge
spin combo-good speed but traveled towards the end
footwork-very fluid, creative, and fast
Good last spin combo
Very nice performance. Suzuki has great expression and she is very musical. Great attack with the footwork and showed a lot of character in the section immediately following the triple flip. Spins and spirals were not nearly as strong as Nagasu's.
TES: 34.40
PCS: 25.12
Total: 59.52
Rank: 2
Fumie Suguri (Japan)
Good expression at the start
3F(slight UR)+2T-good speed coming out
3Z-flutz, double-footed, possible UR
Spiral sequence-adequate
2A-great height; slight wobble on landing
Combo spin-good speed but lost speed when grabbing her leg in the catch foot layback position
Footwork-good movements but slow
Finished after music
TES: 30.38
PCS: 25.08
Total: 55.46
Rank: 3
Kiira Korpi (Finland)
3Z(possible flutz; hand down)+2T
3R-good; three-turn entrance
Good continuous speed in spin combo
2A-solid
Spiral sequence-decent
Flying sit spin-nice low position
footwork-good
Good speed in final spin
Improved expression but still bland in places.
TES: 34.80
PCS: 26.40
Total: 61.20
Rank: 2
Score is higher than she deserved in my opinion. Her PCS should be in line with those received by Nagasu and Suzuki, not ahead of.
Rachael Flatt (USA)
3F(forward on landing, possible UR)+2T
3Z-solid
flying camel
Spiral sequence-adequate
Good position on layback; speed could be improved
2A-forward on landing; held on
Improved footwork from previous seasons
A cute program that has potential but Flatt will need to sell it even more to bring the entertaining concept home. All of her jumps looked lower.
TES: 33.40
PCS: 25.40
Total: 58.80
Rank: 4
Joannie Rochette (Canada)
Music is to La Cumparsita
2Z-opened up in air
3F-good but didn't add in a combo
1A
Adequate spiral
Footwork a bit slow in places
Spins were all OK
The program is very well choreographed, and she does have the most mature presentation that we have seen today. Perhaps this whole battle with landing the 3-3 is messing with her nerves? In that case, she should just stick to a triple lutz+double toe, something she does consistently in the long.
TES: 23.92
PCS: 28.20
Total: 52.12
Rank: 6
Carolina Kostner (Italy)
3F+2T-good
3T-solid
Spiral-great speed and extension
2A-solid
Spin combo a little slow
Flying deathdrop-sit spin position should be lower
Good attack in footwork
Good presentation.
Interesting jump layout! She seems to be saying to hell with the 3/3 and is putting the triple toe in as a solo jump. It will put her behind in base value but a clean program will keep her competitive because of her high PCS scores.
TES: 31.80
PCS: 29.32
Total: 61.12
Rank: 3
Good thing I didn't have any money riding on this competition. Also, AKIKO SUZUKI WAS ROBBED!!!!!.
That is all.
Skate Order:
Warm-Up Group 1
1.) Bingwa Geng (China)
2.) Binshu Xu (China)
3.) Yan Liu (China)
4.) Diane Szmiett (Canada)
5.) Beatrisa Liang (USA)
6.) Mirai Nagasu (USA)
Arena is about half full. Same arena as last year's Cup of China. Binshu Xu in pink top with blue skirt. Yan Liu in light blue. Szmiett in red; Liang in black; Nagasu in black and gold.
Liang looks a little out of shape but just landed a triple toe. Nagasu did a triple flip which looked slightly UR. Yan Liu stumbled out of her triple loop slightly.
Nagasu did a triple lutz with a slight fall out and inside edge takeoff. Liu (I believe) did a 3Z at the end of the warm-up.
Bingwa Geng (China)
Purple dress
Looks like a young Caroline Zhang, and is skating to Meditation from Thais
3S-good steps before, entrance was long but the jump had great height and a good landing
3Z-fall out, +1T-won't get credit for 2nd jump, put her foot down in-between, takeoff edge looked clean
2A-lovely
spiral-extension is good, not great
Footwork-nice
Good donut spin
Layback position is too turned in but her Bielmann is great
Nice ending pose
She will get marked down quite a bit for her mistake on the triple lutz but otherwise a very nice performance. Geng could be a legitimate contender at major competitions in the future. Good choreography, nice use of arms, and did express herself well in places.
TES: 28.20
PCS: 19.44
Total: 47.64
PCS are a little low IMO but scores at this event were rather tight last year.
Binshu Xu (China)
3T-fall; likely UR
3S-solid; slightly UR
spin combo-good speed; weak positions on layback and Bielmann
spiral-extension is decent; skating edge is very wobbly
2A-nice
last spin combo-good speed but traveled
Very weak projection to the audience.
TES: 19.36
PCS: 18.72
Ded: -1.00
Total: 37.08
Rank: 2
Yan Liu (China)
IIRC the same as last year's SP
3Z+2T-a little slow coming out of 3Z and possibly flutzed; otherwise clean
3R-good
Rough transition from standard spiral to catch-foot spiral
2A-coming after front spiral; very good
good layback to catch-foot spin
footwork-relatively easy and not very continuous
Very flat program artistically; she is a mature skater but has no relation to the audience whatsoever. However, it was a very fluid, clean skate, and it was certainly one of her best short programs as of late.
TES: 30.00
PCS: 21.28
Total: 51.28
Rank: 1
Diane Szmiett (Canada)
Skating to West Side Story
3F+2T-long entrance but otherwise good
3Z-two footed first and then fell
2A-fell out of
spin combo-traveled in beginning but centered it afterward
Very poor attempt at Charlotte Spiral (if that was even what she was trying)
Relatively slow footwork
Great speed in catch foot spin at the end
No emotional depth to program; speed is decent.
TES: 25.08
PCS: 21.16
Ded: -2.00
Total: 44.24
Rank: 3
Beatrisa Liang (USA)
Tango de Roxanne
3Z+2T-good
3F-little wobbly, very slight UR
layback to catch foot spin combo-very good
spiral-good extension
2A- step out
good spin combo
footwork-fall
This program is a great one for her and really enables her to showcase expression, drama, and musicality. A shame about the mistakes at the end but at least it started off well.
TES: 29.04
PCS: 22.72
Ded: -1.00
Total: 50.76
Rank: 2
Mirai Nagasu (USA)
Pirates of the Carribean soundtrack
3Z(likely UR)+2T-landed; also looked flutzed
3F-good
Spiral-great extension and speed
layback to catch-foot to Bielmann spin-excellent
2A-from Ina Bauer-very good
footwork-good energy
Good last spin combo
Her growth spurt has caused her to under rotate jumps more so than when she was tinier but it has helped her out tremendously with speed. She travels across the rink very quickly no matter if it is stroking, footwork, or gliding across the ice. Good skate.
TES: 37.40 ( I guess she got the lutz credited?)
PCS: 24.80
Total: 62.20 (Nice!)
Rank: 1
Warm-Up Group 2
7.) Akiko Suzuki (Japan)
8.) Fumie Suguri (Japan)
9.) Kiira Korpi (Finland)
10.) Rachael Flatt (USA)
11.) Joannie Rochette (Canada)
12.) Carolina Kostner (Italy)
Flatt in pink; Korpi in a light green/yellow; Rochette in black.
Flatt did 2A; landed but looked low. It looked like Rochette did 3Z+3T with a slight wobble on the landing of the 2nd jump. Flatt doubled her lutz. Flatt just did 3Z; looked lower than usual but landed.
Akiko Suzuki (Japan)
3Z+2T-slight loss of speed coming out of 3Z but otherwise good
3F-good
flying camel-slightly off balance but got her centering back
Spiral sequence-adequate
2A-good control on the landing edge
spin combo-good speed but traveled towards the end
footwork-very fluid, creative, and fast
Good last spin combo
Very nice performance. Suzuki has great expression and she is very musical. Great attack with the footwork and showed a lot of character in the section immediately following the triple flip. Spins and spirals were not nearly as strong as Nagasu's.
TES: 34.40
PCS: 25.12
Total: 59.52
Rank: 2
Fumie Suguri (Japan)
Good expression at the start
3F(slight UR)+2T-good speed coming out
3Z-flutz, double-footed, possible UR
Spiral sequence-adequate
2A-great height; slight wobble on landing
Combo spin-good speed but lost speed when grabbing her leg in the catch foot layback position
Footwork-good movements but slow
Finished after music
TES: 30.38
PCS: 25.08
Total: 55.46
Rank: 3
Kiira Korpi (Finland)
3Z(possible flutz; hand down)+2T
3R-good; three-turn entrance
Good continuous speed in spin combo
2A-solid
Spiral sequence-decent
Flying sit spin-nice low position
footwork-good
Good speed in final spin
Improved expression but still bland in places.
TES: 34.80
PCS: 26.40
Total: 61.20
Rank: 2
Score is higher than she deserved in my opinion. Her PCS should be in line with those received by Nagasu and Suzuki, not ahead of.
Rachael Flatt (USA)
3F(forward on landing, possible UR)+2T
3Z-solid
flying camel
Spiral sequence-adequate
Good position on layback; speed could be improved
2A-forward on landing; held on
Improved footwork from previous seasons
A cute program that has potential but Flatt will need to sell it even more to bring the entertaining concept home. All of her jumps looked lower.
TES: 33.40
PCS: 25.40
Total: 58.80
Rank: 4
Joannie Rochette (Canada)
Music is to La Cumparsita
2Z-opened up in air
3F-good but didn't add in a combo
1A
Adequate spiral
Footwork a bit slow in places
Spins were all OK
The program is very well choreographed, and she does have the most mature presentation that we have seen today. Perhaps this whole battle with landing the 3-3 is messing with her nerves? In that case, she should just stick to a triple lutz+double toe, something she does consistently in the long.
TES: 23.92
PCS: 28.20
Total: 52.12
Rank: 6
Carolina Kostner (Italy)
3F+2T-good
3T-solid
Spiral-great speed and extension
2A-solid
Spin combo a little slow
Flying deathdrop-sit spin position should be lower
Good attack in footwork
Good presentation.
Interesting jump layout! She seems to be saying to hell with the 3/3 and is putting the triple toe in as a solo jump. It will put her behind in base value but a clean program will keep her competitive because of her high PCS scores.
TES: 31.80
PCS: 29.32
Total: 61.12
Rank: 3
Good thing I didn't have any money riding on this competition. Also, AKIKO SUZUKI WAS ROBBED!!!!!.
That is all.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
2009 Cup of China-Ladies Preview
Rachael Flatt (USA)
The two-time U.S. silver medalist is consistent, reliable, and yes, flat. However, with Sasha Cohen's withdrawal from Trophée Eric Bompard and both Mao Asada and Carolina Kostner's respective meltdowns at COR and TEB, Flatt has a very strong opportunity of qualifying to the Grand Prix Final after missing the final last year by two placements. Flatt won her first U.S. silver medal in 2008, skating a clean long program which contained seven triple jumps. Subsequently competing at the World Junior Championships, she repeated the same clean skate and defeated both Mirai Nagasu and Caroline Zhang to win the title. Flatt once again settled for silver at this year's U.S. Championships, missing the gold medal in a very controversial loss to Alissa Czisny. Flatt went onto the 2009 World Championships and finished 5th in her first try. Flatt has competed twice since the conclusion of last season in summer events, including the Colorado Championships and the Golden West competition, beating Alexe Gilles at the former and Caroline Zhang and Mirai Nagasu at the latter. Flatt showed visible improvement in her swing-themed short program with her presentation and speed, but reverted back to her fairly mundane style in the long program, choreographed to Rachmaninoff's "Rhapsody on a Theme of Paganini."
While Flatt's style is not necessarily bad - she actually does make a fairly strong effort to use facial expression and relate to the music - her lines are impeded by her rather awkwardly proportioned body. Her neck is very short; thus, when her shoulders lift, even just ever so slightly, it creates a very distorted line of both her back and overall upper body. She is not an exceptionally flexible skater, nor a very fast one. However, Rachael Flatt made it to the top five at last year's worlds in spite of these flaws, and her innate ability to compete and remain in the moment when the pressure mounts has been her ace in the hole thus far in her career. She has also been remarkable in avoiding major injury as a figure skater, something that has also been advantageous to Flatt against her fellow adversaries. Flatt is doubtful to reach the medals stand in Vancouver, but she stands a solid chance of claiming an Olympic berth in Spokane come nationals. One of her closest competitors for one of those spots, Mirai Nagasu, will be competing against Flatt at this competition, and it will be intriguing to see who is ahead at this stage in the game.
Carolina Kostner (Italy)
For more info on Kostner see the TEB preview post for the ladies. The two-time world medalist has quite a ways to go when it comes to returning to peak form after her sixth place finish just over a week ago in Paris. For Kostner to have any chance at qualifying to the Grand Prix Final, she would need to win this event, a tough task in of itself, and then hope that others meltdown at future Grand Prixs so that she could qualify. While one can argue several different ways regarding why Kostner was overscored at the 2008 worlds, it certainly did help her that she was the bronze medalist from the Grand Prix Final and the current European champion heading into those Championships. Now that the Grand Prix Final is most likely out of the question, winning Europeans will be of the utmost importance for Kostner heading into Vancouver. Kostner should be able to win a European title very easily at her optimum, but she is still capable of losing gold at that event, doing so last year to Laura Lepisto.
Both of Carolina's programs that she debuted in Paris are hardly her best; they don't appear as well composed or emotionally inspired as several previous programs of hers, including her "Canon" short and "Memories of a Geisha" long from the 2006/2007 season. Her low finish in Paris is, while a setback reputation-wise, by no means an indication that she has glossed herself out of the picture for an Olympic medal. In 2004, Kostner only finished 7th at Cup of Russia and went on to defeat Michelle Kwan for the bronze medal at worlds. Similarly in 2007, Kostner did pull off a bronze medal at Cup of China, but she was competing against a very weak field and skated extremely poorly in the free. She would later go on to win the world silver medal that season. Kostner has already been making several changes to her jumps since moving to Frank Carroll (such as taking a more fluid entrance to her triple flip and not telegraphing), and consistency with these changes naturally take time, as her warm-ups looked excellent in Paris but during her competitive skates her nerves ended up taking center ice. Kostner is never strong at her first event of the season, but does often improve for her second. In this all important Olympic season, she needs that to be the case here.
Mirai Nagasu (USA)
Although a seemingly benevolent, dainty personality, the 2008 U.S. Champion has not been one to hide her emotions or thoughts to the public. Nagasu arrived to her free skate at last year's U.S. Championships in tears, but finished the program without a major error and beamed with pride. Recently, during the U.S. Olympic Media Summit, Nagasu arose concern in the skating community with her comment, "...I'm not very smart and I'm not very pretty and there's nothing else that stands out about me besides my skating." Nagasu was also the only skater to vocal her concern over what Sasha Cohen's comeback would mean for her Olympic chances. Nagasu came out of nowhere to win the gold medal at the U.S. Championships on the junior level in 2007, defeating heavy favorite Caroline Zhang in the process. The following year, she shocked many once again by taking the senior U.S. title, but was age-ineligible to compete at the 2008 World Championships. The following year, a disastrous 8th place showing at the NHK Trophy continued to fire off tensions between Nagasu and her then coach, Charlene Wong, largely because Nagasu was opting out of resting a severe ankle injury. Nagasu toughed it out in her free skate at the U.S. Championships, finishing 5th, and upon concluding her season, she decided it was best to resume her skating under the tutelage of Frank Carroll.
Judging by the recent Golden West competition, Nagasu does not look as strong as Flatt overall, but does have several things going for her. Nagasu has routinely been plagued by under rotated jumps that often stem from a lack of amplitude, but at Golden West her jumps looked visibly higher and stronger. Her Carmen long program also looks to have great potential, and the music arrangement of the program has several of the more unused selections of the score. Nagasu has a fairly steep hill to climb to make the Olympic team, but appears to have started off on the right off toward getting to the top of the hill, something that cannot be said for many of the athletes vying for tickets to Vancouver.
Joannie Rochette (Canada)
Although some past Olympic and world champions have peaked at 15 or 16, Joannie Rochette has taken the slow and steady route to peaking at the ripe old age of 23, having just won a world silver medal. Rochette earned her first world championship medal on her eighth try and comes toward this season with what will likely be her last opportunity to win an Olympic medal. While debuting her new long program to "Samson and Delilah" at the recent Japan Open, Rochette looked fit, confident, and polished. Rochette landed all seven triples and scored a 126.39, the highest free skate for her in an international competition to date. Rochette certainly needs to be mindful of not peaking too early; however, one shouldn't be too concerned because she did perform expertly at last year's Skate Canada and, with one exception (Grand Prix Final), maintained that level of solidity throughout the season's entirety.
With Mao Asada and Carolina Kostner struggling and Sasha Cohen's "comeback" in question, Rochette has found herself with more than just a realistic aspiration of winning an Olympic medal. At this point, it looks as though Rochette is the only woman capable of even challenging South Korean superstar Yu-Na Kim for the gold, although Kim still is the unwavering frontrunner at this point. Once noted for her inconsistency, Rochette has worked diligently to correct this foible. The current world silver medalist remarked in a recent CTV Olympics article that touring with Stars and Ice in Canada has been beneficial to her psych and that the presence of media attention motivates her to perform at a superior level. Her mindset is obviously working, but will she keep her confidence intact when faced with skating for an Olympic medal in her home country? We shall see.
Fumie Suguri (Japan)
It hasn't exactly been smooth sailing for Suguri since winning her world silver medal in 2006, but she shocked many when she won the silver medal at the 2008/2009 Japanese nationals, defeating Miki Ando, Akiko Suzuki, and Yukari Nakano. Suguri qualified to the 2009 World Championships, her first worlds since 2006, and she also qualified to the Four Continents team, a competition where she placed 6th. Battling a shoulder injury, Suguri had a relatively shaky long program at the World Championships and was unable to muster anything better than an 8th place finish. Suguri stands a decent chance of making the Olympic team, a chance which she hopes to augment by moving to Alexei Mishin, coach of Evgeni Plushenko. Upon changing coaches, Suguri also scrapped both of her scheduled programs for the 2009/2010 season and has replaced them with a short program to "Air on the G String" and "Tocatta and Fugue" by Bach and a long program to Khachaturian's "Spartacus."
Suguri performed poorly at the recent Finlandia Trophy, finishing 7th against a weak field. However, once adjusted to all of her changes, Suguri should be a force to be reckoned with for a spot on the Olympic team. She only finished 8th at her opening event of the 2005/2006 Olympic season, Skate Canada, but stunned all by winning the Japanese nationals, defeating the then reigning Grand Prix Final champion Mao Asada and eventual Olympic champion Shizuka Arakawa. With Miki Ando and Mao Asada near locks for the team (even with Asada's issues, she has far too much recognition and stardom to be left off), Fumie Suguri is in a race for the third ticket with Yukari Nakano and Akiko Suzuki, the latter of whom she will compete against this week. Suguri may not be primed to do well this week if Finlandia Trophy is any indication, but she has proven capable of sneaking up on her rivals when something big is on the line and can certainly do that again with jump doctor Mishin by her side.
Akiko Suzuki (Japan)
Suzuki had her best season to date last year, winning a silver medal at the NHK Trophy and achieving a 4th place finish at the Japanese nationals. Much like Joannie Rochette, Suzuki has been slower in reaching her peak, and part of this is because of an eating disorder she suffered from in 2003, which kept her out of competition for the 2003/2004 season. Suzuki was inspired by Shizuka Arakawa's 2004 world title and became motivated to give the sport another try. Although success was slow to come after that, she did improve dramatically for last season and made the most out of her year. Suzuki does stand a legitimate chance of making the Olympic team, and were it not for a (perhaps unfairly) downgraded triple salchow in her long program at Japanese nationals, she may have been a part of the 2009 world championship team. Suzuki is set to debut her new programs for the first time internationally in China, which are a short program to Andalucia and a long program to West Side Story. Former world champion ice dancer turned choreographer Shae-Lynn Bourne worked with Suzuki on her long program for this season and praised Suzuki's skating ability and work ethic on a Japanese television fluff. Suzuki already has had a good start to her season, winning a regional championship in Japan with a score higher than what she received at last year's Japanese nationals. Suzuki is a solid jumper and an attractive artist; she should do well here if her consistency from last season is any indication. As the Japanese Skating Federation appears to be making much of their Olympic team decisions based on Grand Prix results, Suzuki wants to leave her first major event of the season with a bang.
Predicted Standings
5th: Mirai Nagasu (USA)
6th; Fumie Suguri (Japan)
That is all.
The two-time U.S. silver medalist is consistent, reliable, and yes, flat. However, with Sasha Cohen's withdrawal from Trophée Eric Bompard and both Mao Asada and Carolina Kostner's respective meltdowns at COR and TEB, Flatt has a very strong opportunity of qualifying to the Grand Prix Final after missing the final last year by two placements. Flatt won her first U.S. silver medal in 2008, skating a clean long program which contained seven triple jumps. Subsequently competing at the World Junior Championships, she repeated the same clean skate and defeated both Mirai Nagasu and Caroline Zhang to win the title. Flatt once again settled for silver at this year's U.S. Championships, missing the gold medal in a very controversial loss to Alissa Czisny. Flatt went onto the 2009 World Championships and finished 5th in her first try. Flatt has competed twice since the conclusion of last season in summer events, including the Colorado Championships and the Golden West competition, beating Alexe Gilles at the former and Caroline Zhang and Mirai Nagasu at the latter. Flatt showed visible improvement in her swing-themed short program with her presentation and speed, but reverted back to her fairly mundane style in the long program, choreographed to Rachmaninoff's "Rhapsody on a Theme of Paganini."
While Flatt's style is not necessarily bad - she actually does make a fairly strong effort to use facial expression and relate to the music - her lines are impeded by her rather awkwardly proportioned body. Her neck is very short; thus, when her shoulders lift, even just ever so slightly, it creates a very distorted line of both her back and overall upper body. She is not an exceptionally flexible skater, nor a very fast one. However, Rachael Flatt made it to the top five at last year's worlds in spite of these flaws, and her innate ability to compete and remain in the moment when the pressure mounts has been her ace in the hole thus far in her career. She has also been remarkable in avoiding major injury as a figure skater, something that has also been advantageous to Flatt against her fellow adversaries. Flatt is doubtful to reach the medals stand in Vancouver, but she stands a solid chance of claiming an Olympic berth in Spokane come nationals. One of her closest competitors for one of those spots, Mirai Nagasu, will be competing against Flatt at this competition, and it will be intriguing to see who is ahead at this stage in the game.
Carolina Kostner (Italy)
For more info on Kostner see the TEB preview post for the ladies. The two-time world medalist has quite a ways to go when it comes to returning to peak form after her sixth place finish just over a week ago in Paris. For Kostner to have any chance at qualifying to the Grand Prix Final, she would need to win this event, a tough task in of itself, and then hope that others meltdown at future Grand Prixs so that she could qualify. While one can argue several different ways regarding why Kostner was overscored at the 2008 worlds, it certainly did help her that she was the bronze medalist from the Grand Prix Final and the current European champion heading into those Championships. Now that the Grand Prix Final is most likely out of the question, winning Europeans will be of the utmost importance for Kostner heading into Vancouver. Kostner should be able to win a European title very easily at her optimum, but she is still capable of losing gold at that event, doing so last year to Laura Lepisto.
Both of Carolina's programs that she debuted in Paris are hardly her best; they don't appear as well composed or emotionally inspired as several previous programs of hers, including her "Canon" short and "Memories of a Geisha" long from the 2006/2007 season. Her low finish in Paris is, while a setback reputation-wise, by no means an indication that she has glossed herself out of the picture for an Olympic medal. In 2004, Kostner only finished 7th at Cup of Russia and went on to defeat Michelle Kwan for the bronze medal at worlds. Similarly in 2007, Kostner did pull off a bronze medal at Cup of China, but she was competing against a very weak field and skated extremely poorly in the free. She would later go on to win the world silver medal that season. Kostner has already been making several changes to her jumps since moving to Frank Carroll (such as taking a more fluid entrance to her triple flip and not telegraphing), and consistency with these changes naturally take time, as her warm-ups looked excellent in Paris but during her competitive skates her nerves ended up taking center ice. Kostner is never strong at her first event of the season, but does often improve for her second. In this all important Olympic season, she needs that to be the case here.
Mirai Nagasu (USA)
Although a seemingly benevolent, dainty personality, the 2008 U.S. Champion has not been one to hide her emotions or thoughts to the public. Nagasu arrived to her free skate at last year's U.S. Championships in tears, but finished the program without a major error and beamed with pride. Recently, during the U.S. Olympic Media Summit, Nagasu arose concern in the skating community with her comment, "...I'm not very smart and I'm not very pretty and there's nothing else that stands out about me besides my skating." Nagasu was also the only skater to vocal her concern over what Sasha Cohen's comeback would mean for her Olympic chances. Nagasu came out of nowhere to win the gold medal at the U.S. Championships on the junior level in 2007, defeating heavy favorite Caroline Zhang in the process. The following year, she shocked many once again by taking the senior U.S. title, but was age-ineligible to compete at the 2008 World Championships. The following year, a disastrous 8th place showing at the NHK Trophy continued to fire off tensions between Nagasu and her then coach, Charlene Wong, largely because Nagasu was opting out of resting a severe ankle injury. Nagasu toughed it out in her free skate at the U.S. Championships, finishing 5th, and upon concluding her season, she decided it was best to resume her skating under the tutelage of Frank Carroll.
Judging by the recent Golden West competition, Nagasu does not look as strong as Flatt overall, but does have several things going for her. Nagasu has routinely been plagued by under rotated jumps that often stem from a lack of amplitude, but at Golden West her jumps looked visibly higher and stronger. Her Carmen long program also looks to have great potential, and the music arrangement of the program has several of the more unused selections of the score. Nagasu has a fairly steep hill to climb to make the Olympic team, but appears to have started off on the right off toward getting to the top of the hill, something that cannot be said for many of the athletes vying for tickets to Vancouver.
Joannie Rochette (Canada)
Although some past Olympic and world champions have peaked at 15 or 16, Joannie Rochette has taken the slow and steady route to peaking at the ripe old age of 23, having just won a world silver medal. Rochette earned her first world championship medal on her eighth try and comes toward this season with what will likely be her last opportunity to win an Olympic medal. While debuting her new long program to "Samson and Delilah" at the recent Japan Open, Rochette looked fit, confident, and polished. Rochette landed all seven triples and scored a 126.39, the highest free skate for her in an international competition to date. Rochette certainly needs to be mindful of not peaking too early; however, one shouldn't be too concerned because she did perform expertly at last year's Skate Canada and, with one exception (Grand Prix Final), maintained that level of solidity throughout the season's entirety.
With Mao Asada and Carolina Kostner struggling and Sasha Cohen's "comeback" in question, Rochette has found herself with more than just a realistic aspiration of winning an Olympic medal. At this point, it looks as though Rochette is the only woman capable of even challenging South Korean superstar Yu-Na Kim for the gold, although Kim still is the unwavering frontrunner at this point. Once noted for her inconsistency, Rochette has worked diligently to correct this foible. The current world silver medalist remarked in a recent CTV Olympics article that touring with Stars and Ice in Canada has been beneficial to her psych and that the presence of media attention motivates her to perform at a superior level. Her mindset is obviously working, but will she keep her confidence intact when faced with skating for an Olympic medal in her home country? We shall see.
Fumie Suguri (Japan)
It hasn't exactly been smooth sailing for Suguri since winning her world silver medal in 2006, but she shocked many when she won the silver medal at the 2008/2009 Japanese nationals, defeating Miki Ando, Akiko Suzuki, and Yukari Nakano. Suguri qualified to the 2009 World Championships, her first worlds since 2006, and she also qualified to the Four Continents team, a competition where she placed 6th. Battling a shoulder injury, Suguri had a relatively shaky long program at the World Championships and was unable to muster anything better than an 8th place finish. Suguri stands a decent chance of making the Olympic team, a chance which she hopes to augment by moving to Alexei Mishin, coach of Evgeni Plushenko. Upon changing coaches, Suguri also scrapped both of her scheduled programs for the 2009/2010 season and has replaced them with a short program to "Air on the G String" and "Tocatta and Fugue" by Bach and a long program to Khachaturian's "Spartacus."
Suguri performed poorly at the recent Finlandia Trophy, finishing 7th against a weak field. However, once adjusted to all of her changes, Suguri should be a force to be reckoned with for a spot on the Olympic team. She only finished 8th at her opening event of the 2005/2006 Olympic season, Skate Canada, but stunned all by winning the Japanese nationals, defeating the then reigning Grand Prix Final champion Mao Asada and eventual Olympic champion Shizuka Arakawa. With Miki Ando and Mao Asada near locks for the team (even with Asada's issues, she has far too much recognition and stardom to be left off), Fumie Suguri is in a race for the third ticket with Yukari Nakano and Akiko Suzuki, the latter of whom she will compete against this week. Suguri may not be primed to do well this week if Finlandia Trophy is any indication, but she has proven capable of sneaking up on her rivals when something big is on the line and can certainly do that again with jump doctor Mishin by her side.
Akiko Suzuki (Japan)
Suzuki had her best season to date last year, winning a silver medal at the NHK Trophy and achieving a 4th place finish at the Japanese nationals. Much like Joannie Rochette, Suzuki has been slower in reaching her peak, and part of this is because of an eating disorder she suffered from in 2003, which kept her out of competition for the 2003/2004 season. Suzuki was inspired by Shizuka Arakawa's 2004 world title and became motivated to give the sport another try. Although success was slow to come after that, she did improve dramatically for last season and made the most out of her year. Suzuki does stand a legitimate chance of making the Olympic team, and were it not for a (perhaps unfairly) downgraded triple salchow in her long program at Japanese nationals, she may have been a part of the 2009 world championship team. Suzuki is set to debut her new programs for the first time internationally in China, which are a short program to Andalucia and a long program to West Side Story. Former world champion ice dancer turned choreographer Shae-Lynn Bourne worked with Suzuki on her long program for this season and praised Suzuki's skating ability and work ethic on a Japanese television fluff. Suzuki already has had a good start to her season, winning a regional championship in Japan with a score higher than what she received at last year's Japanese nationals. Suzuki is a solid jumper and an attractive artist; she should do well here if her consistency from last season is any indication. As the Japanese Skating Federation appears to be making much of their Olympic team decisions based on Grand Prix results, Suzuki wants to leave her first major event of the season with a bang.
Predicted Standings
Gold: Joannie Rochette (Canada)
Silver: Rachael Flatt (USA)
Bronze: Akiko Suzuki (Japan)
4th: Carolina Kostner (Italy)5th: Mirai Nagasu (USA)
6th; Fumie Suguri (Japan)
That is all.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
TEB Preview-Ladies
Ladies
Mao Asada (Japan)
The Olympic season has finally arrived for the 19-year-old Japanese superstar, who will aim to live up to the expectations of a proud nation hoping that the 2008 world champion will dethrone her top rival, Yu-Na Kim, for the 2010 Olympic gold medal. Asada was formerly under the tutelage of Rafael Artunian, who led her to the 2007 world silver medal and two Japanese national championships. However, after Asada's 2007 nationals win, the Japanese Skating Federation pulled her from Artunian and sent her to the Four Continents and World Championships without a permanent coach. Nevertheless, she went on to win both competitions. The JSF later paired Asada with legendary Russian coach Tatiana Tarasova, who has taken Asada away from the more lyrical style of her youth to a much more dramatic presentation, something many fans have voiced their disapproval over. Asada's time with Tarasova has been hot and cold thus far, with high points that include her win (defeating Yu-Na Kim in her come country) at the 2008 Grand Prix Final, and becoming the second lady to break 200 points at the 2009 World Team Trophy. However, Asada was left off the podium in Los Angeles, despite not skating poorly, and received her lowest long program score since 2006 at the recent Japan Open.
Asada's attempts to land two triple axels in her long program are admirable, but the great risk involved often proves to be much more of a detriment than a reward. She is bound to pop, under rotate, or fall on one of them (exceptions being 2005 Japanese Nationals and 2008 Grand Prix Final), and more often than not, the mistake comes on the second attempt. It was also perplexing when, at the Japan Open, Asada missed her inconsistent triple salchow, trying that jump in favor of her consistently secure triple loop. Practice videos of Asada's jumps aired just prior to the Japan Open showed her to be in fine condition, but her jumps at the Japan Open were labored and were vacant of their usual spring. However, her artistry in her "Bells of Moscow" long program showed a marked improvement from last year's long to "Masquerade Waltz." Asada performed poorly at this event last year, which was her first event of the 2008/2009 season, and cannot afford to do the same this season with a sinificantly deeper field competing. However, it is worth noting that Asada's second competition of the season has historically been significantly stronger than her first.
Elene Gedevanishvili (Georgia)
The Georgian firecracker is wildly talented and wildly inconsistent, having finished 10th at this year's worlds, just after failing to qualify for the free skate at the 2009 Europeans. Gedevanishvili has competed at an Olympics once before, in 2006, where she shockingly qualified to the final group for the free skate and ended up placing 10th. Currently training under 1982 world champion Elaine Zayak in New Jersey, Gedevanishvili is a spunky skater with a solid triple lutz and triple toe+triple toe combination. The 19-year-old Tbilisi native has already competed once since last year's worlds, at the 2009 Moran Memorial, where she finished ahead of Ashley Wagner in the free skate, but behind behind her in the short program and overall. Gedevanishvili has a solid combination of athleticism, flexibility, and personality, but will need to gain consistency and refine her posture and transitions between elements if she is to stick around and skate onto the podium at a future World Championships or Olympic Games. Gedevanishvili's performances in Los Angeles appeared to significantly increase her confidence level, and a strong placement in Paris (preferably in the top five) would allow the judges to have more faith in Gedevanishvili's potentially strong but divergent skating.
Alexe Gilles (USA)
Gilles is one of the tallest ladies figure skaters to have ever made it to the competitive ranks domestically and internationally, standing at 5'7''. This added height allows Gilles to have jumps that are nothing short of breathtaking when landed, particularly her triple lutz, but it also impedes her consistency. Gilles competed at the Colorado Championships this summer, where she defeated two-time U.S. silver medalist Rachael Flatt in the short, but fell behind her in the long program and overall. The bronze medalist from last year's Junior Grand Prix Final and 9th place finisher from the 2009 U.S. Championships, Gilles has the opportunity for this to be somewhat of a breakthrough season, but only somewhat, because it's unlikely she will make the Olympic team. She was granted her first senior Grand Prix assignment, being this competition, in the spring and was eventually added to the Skate America roster when Michelle Kwan announced her decision not to return to competitive skating. A solid finish here will be a tall order for Gilles, as she is competing against seven creditable skaters and five especially formidable ladies (Asada, Kim, Kostner, Nakano, and Zhang). Regardless of placement, this competition will be of tremendous service to Gilles's development, and it will give her an idea of how she stacks up with some of the top female figure skaters in the world.
Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
The pride of South Korea will take to the ice for the first time since her victory at the 2009 World Championships, where she won her first world title by an astounding 16.42 points, breaking the then existing world record by over eight marks. Kim has been one of the few skaters to have avoided summer competitions, and comes to Paris to debut her new short program to themes from "James Bond" and her long program to Gershwin's "Piano Concerto in F." Orser lauded Kim's new programs in an Icenetwork article back in July; however, Kim critiqued them in a more staid manner in a recent interview, commenting "Though I am under the apprehension that both programs of this season are less gorgeous than those of last season, I will prepare them well and do my best as I have done before."
Although Kim is perhaps not as talented a skater technically speaking as Asada, she is able to work the code of points in her favor more so than her top rival. An example of this is that receives nearly unanimous level fours for her non-jump elements, even while some of her spin and spiral postitions don't achieve the prettiest shapes. The code of points also aids her in the fact that she can switch her problematic triple loop with an easier, quality double axel, which doesn't end up costing her much at all. Kim's speed, detailed choreography, and committed expression enabled her to receive the highest program component marks of every phase of every competition she competed in last season. Kim should continue to bank on those high program component marks, but it is unlikely that one will see Kim score jaw-droppingly high artistic marks, like the 68.40 PCS score she received for her long program at 2009 worlds, especially if she is not to skate a clean short program and have a commanding lead after that phase.
One concept Kim must continue to be mindful about to ensure herself success in Vancouver is to train well, but not overtrain and risk serious injury. Kim's back was a huge source of pain for her prior to the 2007 and 2008 World Championships, both competitions of which she was capable of winning, but did not. Kim peaked herself at exactly the right time last season, but it could be difficult to achieve that masterful pacing again, considering all of the pressure from the people of South Korea and Kim's constant drive to push to envelope further (notice how she claimed that she now aims for 215 points instead of just 200 in the article linked earlier in this commentary). Kim is generally strong, albeit unspectacular, at her first event. While this is precisely how she should desire to perform early in the season, such a performance is not always indicative of the culmination of her year, as was the case with her 2007/2008 season.
Kiira Korpi (Finland)
Korpi missed the Grand Prix portion of the season last year due to injury, but recovered in time to defeat Laura Lepisto at the 2009 Finnish Championships to win her first Finnish senior national title. However, because the criteria for selecting the world team was largely based on the results of the 2009 European Championships, Korpi was not chosen to compete in Los Angeles because of her 5th place finish at that event - the lowest placement of the three Finnish women (Korpi, Lepisto, Susanna Poykio) competing there. Korpi has already gotten her feet wet this season, competing at the Nebelhorn Trophy and Finlandia Trophy, where she placed 2nd and 3rd, respectively. It seems likely that Laura Lepisto will secure one of the two berths available for the Finnish women intending to compete at the 2010 Olympic Games, which means that Korpi will need to fend off current European bronze medalist Susanna Poykio for the second spot. This should prove to be an interesting battle, as both skaters are very comparable in their overall consistency and potential. Poykio may have had the upper hand when it came to last year's Europeans, where Korpi (in the video shown above) took a devastating fall into the boards in her long program, but Poykio didn't exactly show the world that she was of the best use to the Finnish team in Los Angeles with 13th place finish, a placement even lower than Carolina Kostner and her epic long program meltdown. Korpi's competitions in the early part of the season are great opportunities for building confidence, but shouldn't have much impact on whether she is named to the Olympic team or not. Peaking as close to the Olympics as possible will be of the utmost importance for Korpi to return to a second Olympic Games, and to improve on her 16th place finish from 2006.
Carolina Kostner (Italy)
As dream of a city Los Angeles was for Yu-Na Kim, it was a living nightmare for Carolina Kostner. Entering the long program in 5th place, Kostner appeared rattled by Kim's thunderous ovation, as the 22-year-old Italian went on to skate her worst long program in memory, one which contained zero clean triple jumps. The performance dropped Kostner to 12th, understandably prompting her to make a coaching change from Michael Huth to Frank Carroll, who is currently coaching Evan Lysacek and Mirai Nagasu also. Kostner could be the ultimate Olympic dark horse if she is somehow able to gain consistency, confidence, and competitive fire by Vancouver.
Kostner skates with blinding speed, has creditable height on her triples, and is armed with a strong sense of musicality, which, coupled with strong poltical favor from Italian ISU head Ottavio Cinquanta, make it foolish for one to count her out of the medal picture in Vancouver. A recent training video from an Italian television network shows Kostner to have made several changes to her skating in the short time she has had with Frank Carroll, including having more fluid entrances to her flip and loop, and adding the triple toe as a solo jump. She did not show a triple flip+triple toe combination, and given her recent troubles with that combination (having only one out 10 successful triple+triple combination attempts last season), Kostner may be going back to an easier triple flip+double toe combination and putting the triple toe in place of her double axel solo jump in the long program.
Kostner has been wise to let both of her programs be of a more classical genre this season, as classical programs, such as her 2007 Canon short program, aptly suit her artistry. Kostner will debut her short program to Tchaikovsky's "Chopin Nocturne and Violin Concerto" and her long program to Bach's "Air on a G String" and Vivaldi's "Cello Concerto" in Paris. If recent history is any indication, Kostner will not be in strong form here, as her opening performances during several previous seasons have been of particular sloppiness. Little is known of whether Kostner will be able to come back from her Los Angeles catastrophe and skate of quality worthy of making the Olympic podium, but one will be able to start finding out after this weekend. Kostner has many opportunities in her favor to make the Olympic podium; all she has to do is trust herself and take them.
Yukari Nakano (Japan)
Nakano is generally strong early in the season, but was not so at the recent Japan Open, scoring below 100 points with a technically and choreographically fireless long program to "The Firebird." Her debut of her new long program was of particular disappointment to many of Nakano's fans, as she has enhanced her style over the past several seasons, and showed an especially mature presentation in her long program to the ballet score of "Giselle" last season. Nakano has had an impressive career, but one that has had many unerasable disappointments, which include her falling short of an Olympic team that she probably should have been on in 2006 (instead of Miki Ando who finished 15th in Turino), and missing a world championship medal in 2008 in a controversial result. Most recently, Nakano led the field after the short program at the Japanese nationals in December 2008, but ended up skating one of her weakest long programs in memory, dropping to 5th place and being left off of the world championship team.
Nakano has several lovely aspects to her skating, all of which are marred by her greatest trademark and weakness, her leg wrap. Skaters typically cross their legs tightly in the air for a jump, but for whatever peculiar reason, Nakano developed a technique where her left leg crosses over her right thigh, thus creating a distracting line and providing an impediment to the rotation speed of her jumps. She is immune from using that technique on her salchow jump and also on her triple axel, a jump she has not landed cleanly in well over a year.
As far as placements are concerned for this competition, it is worth noting that Nakano improved very quickly at the beginning of last season, when she performed poorly at a minor competition in Japan before going on to skate strongly and place second at Skate America. Nakano was also strong at her opening Grand Prix event in 2007, Skate Canada, and thus could be in for a good competition here despite her poor outing in Japan just weeks ago.
Caroline Zhang (USA)
Zhang will be returning to competition after a raucous off-season, which included two coaching changes (one to Charlene Wong and one back to her original coach, Mingzhu Li), a torn meniscus, and a third place finish (behind Rachael Flatt and Mirai Nagasu) at the Golden West competition last month. Zhang had a bittersweet 2008/2009 season, missing the world championship team while going on to prove in nearly every way possible, whether it be Alissa Czisny's short program meltdown in Los Angeles, Zhang's fourth place finish against a deep field at the Four Continents Championships, or Zhang attaining the top technical score in her free skate at the World Team Trophy, that she deserved to compete in Los Angeles.
Zhang has certain aspects to her skating that are absolutely spellbinding, and other aspects that earn her a plethora of scornful remarks from observers. Zhang can bend her body limitlessly, but skates slower than Carolina Kostner does in slow motion and has an extremely awkward technique on her flip and lutzes, where she twists her hips and kicks her leg up to the ceiling, a technique dubbed the "mule kick" by critics. The main issue with Zhang is that she has been said to have an extremely difficult time breaking out of her confort zone, which is certainly an evident reality when considering the lack of improvement in many aspects of her skating over the past few seasons in terms of speed, transitions, the mule kick, and presentation. Zhang is notorious for flutzing, but was credited with a clean lutz at the Golden West competition. However, she received an "!" call for her flip at that competition, which was also a call she received at this year's U.S. nationals.
Zhang was far from her optimum at her first competition last season, Skate Canada, which seemed to play a factor in how she was scored at nationals relative to Alissa Czisny, who outscored Zhang in the long program despite only landing three triples to Zhang's six. Zhang seems to be marked more favorably internationally than she is domestically, an oddity which she would like to reverse for the time being to earn an Olympic berth. As nationals results are frequently based off of Grand Prix results when it comes to someone being favored on the second mark, two quality performances are necessary for Zhang in Paris.
Predicted Standings-Ladies
Gold: Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
Silver: Mao Asada (Japan)
Bronze: Yukari Nakano (Japan)
4th: Carolina Kostner (Italy)
5th: Caroline Zhang (USA)
6th: Elene Gedevanishvili (Georgia)
That is all.
Mao Asada (Japan)
The Olympic season has finally arrived for the 19-year-old Japanese superstar, who will aim to live up to the expectations of a proud nation hoping that the 2008 world champion will dethrone her top rival, Yu-Na Kim, for the 2010 Olympic gold medal. Asada was formerly under the tutelage of Rafael Artunian, who led her to the 2007 world silver medal and two Japanese national championships. However, after Asada's 2007 nationals win, the Japanese Skating Federation pulled her from Artunian and sent her to the Four Continents and World Championships without a permanent coach. Nevertheless, she went on to win both competitions. The JSF later paired Asada with legendary Russian coach Tatiana Tarasova, who has taken Asada away from the more lyrical style of her youth to a much more dramatic presentation, something many fans have voiced their disapproval over. Asada's time with Tarasova has been hot and cold thus far, with high points that include her win (defeating Yu-Na Kim in her come country) at the 2008 Grand Prix Final, and becoming the second lady to break 200 points at the 2009 World Team Trophy. However, Asada was left off the podium in Los Angeles, despite not skating poorly, and received her lowest long program score since 2006 at the recent Japan Open.
Asada's attempts to land two triple axels in her long program are admirable, but the great risk involved often proves to be much more of a detriment than a reward. She is bound to pop, under rotate, or fall on one of them (exceptions being 2005 Japanese Nationals and 2008 Grand Prix Final), and more often than not, the mistake comes on the second attempt. It was also perplexing when, at the Japan Open, Asada missed her inconsistent triple salchow, trying that jump in favor of her consistently secure triple loop. Practice videos of Asada's jumps aired just prior to the Japan Open showed her to be in fine condition, but her jumps at the Japan Open were labored and were vacant of their usual spring. However, her artistry in her "Bells of Moscow" long program showed a marked improvement from last year's long to "Masquerade Waltz." Asada performed poorly at this event last year, which was her first event of the 2008/2009 season, and cannot afford to do the same this season with a sinificantly deeper field competing. However, it is worth noting that Asada's second competition of the season has historically been significantly stronger than her first.
Elene Gedevanishvili (Georgia)
The Georgian firecracker is wildly talented and wildly inconsistent, having finished 10th at this year's worlds, just after failing to qualify for the free skate at the 2009 Europeans. Gedevanishvili has competed at an Olympics once before, in 2006, where she shockingly qualified to the final group for the free skate and ended up placing 10th. Currently training under 1982 world champion Elaine Zayak in New Jersey, Gedevanishvili is a spunky skater with a solid triple lutz and triple toe+triple toe combination. The 19-year-old Tbilisi native has already competed once since last year's worlds, at the 2009 Moran Memorial, where she finished ahead of Ashley Wagner in the free skate, but behind behind her in the short program and overall. Gedevanishvili has a solid combination of athleticism, flexibility, and personality, but will need to gain consistency and refine her posture and transitions between elements if she is to stick around and skate onto the podium at a future World Championships or Olympic Games. Gedevanishvili's performances in Los Angeles appeared to significantly increase her confidence level, and a strong placement in Paris (preferably in the top five) would allow the judges to have more faith in Gedevanishvili's potentially strong but divergent skating.
Alexe Gilles (USA)
Gilles is one of the tallest ladies figure skaters to have ever made it to the competitive ranks domestically and internationally, standing at 5'7''. This added height allows Gilles to have jumps that are nothing short of breathtaking when landed, particularly her triple lutz, but it also impedes her consistency. Gilles competed at the Colorado Championships this summer, where she defeated two-time U.S. silver medalist Rachael Flatt in the short, but fell behind her in the long program and overall. The bronze medalist from last year's Junior Grand Prix Final and 9th place finisher from the 2009 U.S. Championships, Gilles has the opportunity for this to be somewhat of a breakthrough season, but only somewhat, because it's unlikely she will make the Olympic team. She was granted her first senior Grand Prix assignment, being this competition, in the spring and was eventually added to the Skate America roster when Michelle Kwan announced her decision not to return to competitive skating. A solid finish here will be a tall order for Gilles, as she is competing against seven creditable skaters and five especially formidable ladies (Asada, Kim, Kostner, Nakano, and Zhang). Regardless of placement, this competition will be of tremendous service to Gilles's development, and it will give her an idea of how she stacks up with some of the top female figure skaters in the world.
Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
The pride of South Korea will take to the ice for the first time since her victory at the 2009 World Championships, where she won her first world title by an astounding 16.42 points, breaking the then existing world record by over eight marks. Kim has been one of the few skaters to have avoided summer competitions, and comes to Paris to debut her new short program to themes from "James Bond" and her long program to Gershwin's "Piano Concerto in F." Orser lauded Kim's new programs in an Icenetwork article back in July; however, Kim critiqued them in a more staid manner in a recent interview, commenting "Though I am under the apprehension that both programs of this season are less gorgeous than those of last season, I will prepare them well and do my best as I have done before."
Although Kim is perhaps not as talented a skater technically speaking as Asada, she is able to work the code of points in her favor more so than her top rival. An example of this is that receives nearly unanimous level fours for her non-jump elements, even while some of her spin and spiral postitions don't achieve the prettiest shapes. The code of points also aids her in the fact that she can switch her problematic triple loop with an easier, quality double axel, which doesn't end up costing her much at all. Kim's speed, detailed choreography, and committed expression enabled her to receive the highest program component marks of every phase of every competition she competed in last season. Kim should continue to bank on those high program component marks, but it is unlikely that one will see Kim score jaw-droppingly high artistic marks, like the 68.40 PCS score she received for her long program at 2009 worlds, especially if she is not to skate a clean short program and have a commanding lead after that phase.
One concept Kim must continue to be mindful about to ensure herself success in Vancouver is to train well, but not overtrain and risk serious injury. Kim's back was a huge source of pain for her prior to the 2007 and 2008 World Championships, both competitions of which she was capable of winning, but did not. Kim peaked herself at exactly the right time last season, but it could be difficult to achieve that masterful pacing again, considering all of the pressure from the people of South Korea and Kim's constant drive to push to envelope further (notice how she claimed that she now aims for 215 points instead of just 200 in the article linked earlier in this commentary). Kim is generally strong, albeit unspectacular, at her first event. While this is precisely how she should desire to perform early in the season, such a performance is not always indicative of the culmination of her year, as was the case with her 2007/2008 season.
Kiira Korpi (Finland)
Korpi missed the Grand Prix portion of the season last year due to injury, but recovered in time to defeat Laura Lepisto at the 2009 Finnish Championships to win her first Finnish senior national title. However, because the criteria for selecting the world team was largely based on the results of the 2009 European Championships, Korpi was not chosen to compete in Los Angeles because of her 5th place finish at that event - the lowest placement of the three Finnish women (Korpi, Lepisto, Susanna Poykio) competing there. Korpi has already gotten her feet wet this season, competing at the Nebelhorn Trophy and Finlandia Trophy, where she placed 2nd and 3rd, respectively. It seems likely that Laura Lepisto will secure one of the two berths available for the Finnish women intending to compete at the 2010 Olympic Games, which means that Korpi will need to fend off current European bronze medalist Susanna Poykio for the second spot. This should prove to be an interesting battle, as both skaters are very comparable in their overall consistency and potential. Poykio may have had the upper hand when it came to last year's Europeans, where Korpi (in the video shown above) took a devastating fall into the boards in her long program, but Poykio didn't exactly show the world that she was of the best use to the Finnish team in Los Angeles with 13th place finish, a placement even lower than Carolina Kostner and her epic long program meltdown. Korpi's competitions in the early part of the season are great opportunities for building confidence, but shouldn't have much impact on whether she is named to the Olympic team or not. Peaking as close to the Olympics as possible will be of the utmost importance for Korpi to return to a second Olympic Games, and to improve on her 16th place finish from 2006.
Carolina Kostner (Italy)
As dream of a city Los Angeles was for Yu-Na Kim, it was a living nightmare for Carolina Kostner. Entering the long program in 5th place, Kostner appeared rattled by Kim's thunderous ovation, as the 22-year-old Italian went on to skate her worst long program in memory, one which contained zero clean triple jumps. The performance dropped Kostner to 12th, understandably prompting her to make a coaching change from Michael Huth to Frank Carroll, who is currently coaching Evan Lysacek and Mirai Nagasu also. Kostner could be the ultimate Olympic dark horse if she is somehow able to gain consistency, confidence, and competitive fire by Vancouver.
Kostner skates with blinding speed, has creditable height on her triples, and is armed with a strong sense of musicality, which, coupled with strong poltical favor from Italian ISU head Ottavio Cinquanta, make it foolish for one to count her out of the medal picture in Vancouver. A recent training video from an Italian television network shows Kostner to have made several changes to her skating in the short time she has had with Frank Carroll, including having more fluid entrances to her flip and loop, and adding the triple toe as a solo jump. She did not show a triple flip+triple toe combination, and given her recent troubles with that combination (having only one out 10 successful triple+triple combination attempts last season), Kostner may be going back to an easier triple flip+double toe combination and putting the triple toe in place of her double axel solo jump in the long program.
Kostner has been wise to let both of her programs be of a more classical genre this season, as classical programs, such as her 2007 Canon short program, aptly suit her artistry. Kostner will debut her short program to Tchaikovsky's "Chopin Nocturne and Violin Concerto" and her long program to Bach's "Air on a G String" and Vivaldi's "Cello Concerto" in Paris. If recent history is any indication, Kostner will not be in strong form here, as her opening performances during several previous seasons have been of particular sloppiness. Little is known of whether Kostner will be able to come back from her Los Angeles catastrophe and skate of quality worthy of making the Olympic podium, but one will be able to start finding out after this weekend. Kostner has many opportunities in her favor to make the Olympic podium; all she has to do is trust herself and take them.
Yukari Nakano (Japan)
Nakano is generally strong early in the season, but was not so at the recent Japan Open, scoring below 100 points with a technically and choreographically fireless long program to "The Firebird." Her debut of her new long program was of particular disappointment to many of Nakano's fans, as she has enhanced her style over the past several seasons, and showed an especially mature presentation in her long program to the ballet score of "Giselle" last season. Nakano has had an impressive career, but one that has had many unerasable disappointments, which include her falling short of an Olympic team that she probably should have been on in 2006 (instead of Miki Ando who finished 15th in Turino), and missing a world championship medal in 2008 in a controversial result. Most recently, Nakano led the field after the short program at the Japanese nationals in December 2008, but ended up skating one of her weakest long programs in memory, dropping to 5th place and being left off of the world championship team.
Nakano has several lovely aspects to her skating, all of which are marred by her greatest trademark and weakness, her leg wrap. Skaters typically cross their legs tightly in the air for a jump, but for whatever peculiar reason, Nakano developed a technique where her left leg crosses over her right thigh, thus creating a distracting line and providing an impediment to the rotation speed of her jumps. She is immune from using that technique on her salchow jump and also on her triple axel, a jump she has not landed cleanly in well over a year.
As far as placements are concerned for this competition, it is worth noting that Nakano improved very quickly at the beginning of last season, when she performed poorly at a minor competition in Japan before going on to skate strongly and place second at Skate America. Nakano was also strong at her opening Grand Prix event in 2007, Skate Canada, and thus could be in for a good competition here despite her poor outing in Japan just weeks ago.
Caroline Zhang (USA)
Zhang will be returning to competition after a raucous off-season, which included two coaching changes (one to Charlene Wong and one back to her original coach, Mingzhu Li), a torn meniscus, and a third place finish (behind Rachael Flatt and Mirai Nagasu) at the Golden West competition last month. Zhang had a bittersweet 2008/2009 season, missing the world championship team while going on to prove in nearly every way possible, whether it be Alissa Czisny's short program meltdown in Los Angeles, Zhang's fourth place finish against a deep field at the Four Continents Championships, or Zhang attaining the top technical score in her free skate at the World Team Trophy, that she deserved to compete in Los Angeles.
Zhang has certain aspects to her skating that are absolutely spellbinding, and other aspects that earn her a plethora of scornful remarks from observers. Zhang can bend her body limitlessly, but skates slower than Carolina Kostner does in slow motion and has an extremely awkward technique on her flip and lutzes, where she twists her hips and kicks her leg up to the ceiling, a technique dubbed the "mule kick" by critics. The main issue with Zhang is that she has been said to have an extremely difficult time breaking out of her confort zone, which is certainly an evident reality when considering the lack of improvement in many aspects of her skating over the past few seasons in terms of speed, transitions, the mule kick, and presentation. Zhang is notorious for flutzing, but was credited with a clean lutz at the Golden West competition. However, she received an "!" call for her flip at that competition, which was also a call she received at this year's U.S. nationals.
Zhang was far from her optimum at her first competition last season, Skate Canada, which seemed to play a factor in how she was scored at nationals relative to Alissa Czisny, who outscored Zhang in the long program despite only landing three triples to Zhang's six. Zhang seems to be marked more favorably internationally than she is domestically, an oddity which she would like to reverse for the time being to earn an Olympic berth. As nationals results are frequently based off of Grand Prix results when it comes to someone being favored on the second mark, two quality performances are necessary for Zhang in Paris.
Predicted Standings-Ladies
Gold: Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
Silver: Mao Asada (Japan)
Bronze: Yukari Nakano (Japan)
4th: Carolina Kostner (Italy)
5th: Caroline Zhang (USA)
6th: Elene Gedevanishvili (Georgia)
That is all.
Friday, October 9, 2009
2009 Trophée Bompard Preview
There are six total Grand Prixs which are contested in six successive weeks in the fall prior to the final. Each skater or pair/dance team is assigned a maximum of two Grand Prixs, and those who have two Grand Prixs are the only ones with feasible chances to qualify to the Grand Prix Final. The top three finishers from last year's worlds do not compete at the same events, and the same is true for the 4th-6th place finishers. Other factors that determine whether a skater receives two Grand Prix assignments include ISU world ranking, season's best total from last year, and placement at last season's Worlds, Grand Prix Final, and Junior Grand Prix Final. Inevitably, the strength of the competition is greater at some events, particularly when skaters become injured and have to withdraw from a competition. Nonetheless, all events are weighted equally. There is a points system alotted to determine who will compete at the Grand Prix Final, set to take place in Tokyo this December. A first place finish receives 15 points, 2nd place 13 points, 3rd place 11 points, 4th place nine, 5th place seven, 6th place five, 7th place four, and 8th place three. The top six skaters or pair/dance teams in each discipline qualify to the final and all competitors enter the competition with a clean sleight.
The 2009 Trophée Bompard will be contested next week in Paris, France, and will serve as the first major competition of the season, with five world champions scheduled to compete. Although the skaters don't wish to be at their optimum at this time, they still want to be in good enough form to place at this competition, and preferably medal, so as to augment their chances of qualifying to the Grand Prix Final. While it is not the end of the earth if a skater doesn't qualify to the Final, it is of his own benefit to do so to allow for greater confidence and political backing at the skater's national championship and onward to the Olympic Games.
In the pairs event, current two-time world champions Aliona Savchenko and Robin Szolkowy of Germany are coming off of a victory at the Nebelhorn Trophy just two weeks ago. However, their shaky long program at that competition means there is much room for improvement at this competition, although looking at the competition it is unlikely the German pair will be defeated regardless of how they skate.
The 2007 world champion Brian Joubert will be competing at his home Grand Prix event for the 2nd straight year, and Joubert is hardly immune to nerves associated with a home crowd, finishing 4th at this event last year and suffering a defeat to relative unknown Florent Amodio at the French Masters competition just recently. Joubert will not be competing against Amodio at this competition, but should face tight competition from 2009 World Junior Champion Adam Rippon, 2008 European Champion Tomas Verner and compatriots Yannick Ponsero (2009 French Champion) and Alban Preaubert (2006 Grand Prix Finalist).
Canada's premier ice dance team, Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir, will be competing for the first time since last year's World Championships, where they edged training partners Meryl Davis and Charlie White by a mere .04. The Canadians were not present at the Grand Prix last season because Virtue underwent surgery on her legs after it was discovered that she has an unusual condition where her legs were unable to expand and contract normally. Virtue and Moir should have an easy victory at this event, although the French will be well represented by Nathalie Pechalat and Fabien Bourzat, who snuck into the top five at last year's World Championships.
The ladies event is often jokingly referred to as the "ladiezzzz event" by fans, but the competition will be anything other than a snooze fest in Paris, where the deepest ladies Grand Prix field among the six events will take the ice. Defending world champion Yu-Na Kim will face off her top rival, Japan's Mao Asada, while in the process debuting her new programs. Asada recently performed her long program at the Japan Open, but will debut her short program in Paris. Italy's Carolina Kostner is making her first competitive appearence since her nightmare free skate in Los Angeles, where she dropped from 5th place in the short program to 12th overall with a disastrous skate. Three-time Japanese world team member Yukari Nakano and current U.S. bronze medalist Caroline Zhang will also look to stir up the standings. The 2006 Olympic silver medalist, Sasha Cohen, was slated to have Trophée Eric Bompard be her return to competition, but she recently withdrew due to tendonitis in her right calf.
In my next post, I will breakdown of the competitiors who will be competing in each discipline, and my predictions as to where each skater will finish in Paris.
That is all.
The 2009 Trophée Bompard will be contested next week in Paris, France, and will serve as the first major competition of the season, with five world champions scheduled to compete. Although the skaters don't wish to be at their optimum at this time, they still want to be in good enough form to place at this competition, and preferably medal, so as to augment their chances of qualifying to the Grand Prix Final. While it is not the end of the earth if a skater doesn't qualify to the Final, it is of his own benefit to do so to allow for greater confidence and political backing at the skater's national championship and onward to the Olympic Games.
In the pairs event, current two-time world champions Aliona Savchenko and Robin Szolkowy of Germany are coming off of a victory at the Nebelhorn Trophy just two weeks ago. However, their shaky long program at that competition means there is much room for improvement at this competition, although looking at the competition it is unlikely the German pair will be defeated regardless of how they skate.
The 2007 world champion Brian Joubert will be competing at his home Grand Prix event for the 2nd straight year, and Joubert is hardly immune to nerves associated with a home crowd, finishing 4th at this event last year and suffering a defeat to relative unknown Florent Amodio at the French Masters competition just recently. Joubert will not be competing against Amodio at this competition, but should face tight competition from 2009 World Junior Champion Adam Rippon, 2008 European Champion Tomas Verner and compatriots Yannick Ponsero (2009 French Champion) and Alban Preaubert (2006 Grand Prix Finalist).
Canada's premier ice dance team, Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir, will be competing for the first time since last year's World Championships, where they edged training partners Meryl Davis and Charlie White by a mere .04. The Canadians were not present at the Grand Prix last season because Virtue underwent surgery on her legs after it was discovered that she has an unusual condition where her legs were unable to expand and contract normally. Virtue and Moir should have an easy victory at this event, although the French will be well represented by Nathalie Pechalat and Fabien Bourzat, who snuck into the top five at last year's World Championships.
The ladies event is often jokingly referred to as the "ladiezzzz event" by fans, but the competition will be anything other than a snooze fest in Paris, where the deepest ladies Grand Prix field among the six events will take the ice. Defending world champion Yu-Na Kim will face off her top rival, Japan's Mao Asada, while in the process debuting her new programs. Asada recently performed her long program at the Japan Open, but will debut her short program in Paris. Italy's Carolina Kostner is making her first competitive appearence since her nightmare free skate in Los Angeles, where she dropped from 5th place in the short program to 12th overall with a disastrous skate. Three-time Japanese world team member Yukari Nakano and current U.S. bronze medalist Caroline Zhang will also look to stir up the standings. The 2006 Olympic silver medalist, Sasha Cohen, was slated to have Trophée Eric Bompard be her return to competition, but she recently withdrew due to tendonitis in her right calf.
In my next post, I will breakdown of the competitiors who will be competing in each discipline, and my predictions as to where each skater will finish in Paris.
That is all.
Friday, April 3, 2009
Final Post of the Season
Unfortunately, I will be temporarily closing down this blog because the season, with the exception of the fairly inconsequential ISU Team Trophy coming up, has terminated. I will plan to post again in October 2009 when the Grand Prix series begins.
I was in attendance at the 2009 World Figure Skating Championships last week for the ladies short, dance free, and ladies free. As you all know the results and happenings of the competition, my own miscellaneous thoughts:
That is all.
I was in attendance at the 2009 World Figure Skating Championships last week for the ladies short, dance free, and ladies free. As you all know the results and happenings of the competition, my own miscellaneous thoughts:
- Yu-Na Kim's performances, especially the SP, were magical. She owned the triple+triple combo and her overall presence was quite comparable to when Katarina Witt was skating. To see her skate well was not really a surprise, as during both the short and long program Kim nailed jump after jump in warm-up, with the exception of falling on the back-end of a triple flip+triple toe towards the end of her long program warm-up. The energy she brought to the ice during her short program was astounding, and had the audience in the palm of her hand throughout the entire skate. There was one moment before she took to her step sequence in the short where the audience cheered for her and her face just lit up; she was clearly having an incredible time out there. Her long was brilliant too, and while it was a wee bit disappointing not to see her go for broke and try the loop, I loved the Ina Bauer into the double axel with the spiral coming out of it. There was quite a bit of national pride at skate amongst the fans in the building; the Korean fans went absolutely nuts when Kim finished but a contingent of Japanese fans sitting behind me didn't even bother to stand after either program of Kim's.
- Joannie Rochette was wonderful, but it's a shame that her long, a performance I was really looking forward to, failed to live up to its potential. Her short was very elegant, especially with the beautiful spiral out of the double axel, and her very precise, nuanced choreography. I actually never witnessed her trying a triple lutz+triple toe in the short program warm-up, so I was surprised to see her stating in an article after the SP had concluded that she was planning on going for it in the competition. Her long warm-up was very good, but her skate was a bit tentative with two relatively major errors. I think what is most impressive about Joannie's skating is her great amplitude on her jumps, and the beautiful use of her arms and her back.
- Miki Ando did two flawless, rotated triple lutz+triple loops during warm-up for her SP, so it was a real shame to see that the one she did in competition was under rotated on the second jump. Miki looks far more impressive live than on TV, as she really has decent posture, great speed, and great height and ice coverage on her triple jumps. While I personally didn't care for her SP, her LP was excellent, and I don't just mean the jumps. While I usually find Miki's skating to revolve around the triple jumps, (BTW she never tried a quad salchow in warm-up), she had great facial expression and I thought her last step sequence was very dynamic and strong. She certainly didn't have the most difficult choreography, but she absolutely sold what she could out of that performance.
- Mao Asada probably had the most disciplined warm-ups of any of the ladies, trying triple jumps right and left. She looked good during her SP warm-up, landing triple flip+triple loop and a couple triple lutzes. Unfortunately, towards the end of the warm-up the lutz came away from her, stepping out of one attempt and doubling another. The latter mistake came back when she skated her program, but otherwise she was quite lovely. The thing that differentiates Mao so much from Kim is that she skates like no one is watching her, whereas Kim skates like she wants to bring the house down. Asada, while very beautiful, had a sense of predictability in her programs this year that made her less exciting to watch than Kim in my opinion. During the warm-up for her long, Mao landed two beautiful triple axels, both unquestionably rotated and cleanly landed. While her first 3A in her long was fine, she seemed to be too far back in the air to cleanly complete the second. While I don't despise her "Masquerade" long as some other fans do, I think that the major weakness of the program is Mao's absence of a slow section. The choreography is difficult, but unfortunately she makes it look difficult because she doesn't have any time to rest. Her step sequence was the best choreographic passage of the program; very dynamic, intricate, and it went with the music. Kim and Asada had no collisions or near-collisions during either warm-up; if anything Asada was intentionally avoiding Kim.
- Rachael Flatt's artistry is entirely in her face. What is lacking with her is that her arms are fairly stiff, and she holds a lot of tension in her shoulders and upper back, thus causing her to look shorter. It was particularly obvious in the short, when Joannie skated directly after Rachael, with Joannie having a really straight back and Rachael being more hunched over. With that said, Rachael was very wise to switch her long program back to last year's "Romantic Rhapsody" because that one had superior choreography and was a superior music choice as well. Rachael should absolutely be commended for her continued strength as a competitor, and her long program seemed to get stronger as it went. Her triple+triple is an area for concern, however, because she missed it both times in competition. She completed one 3/3 in the short program and long program warm-ups, but both times the triple toe was noticeably under rotated.
- Laura Lepisto has improved her artistry; I believe I noticed more emotion and presence than at Europeans and other previous competitions. Her weakness in presentation, like Flatt, is her relatively stiff arms. She landed a beautiful triple toe+triple toe during the SP warm-up but only did a triple toe+double toe during the competition. She has nice technique, and is a very clean skater who I will look forward to seeing more of in the future.
- Alena Leonova was most enjoyable to see. I was not a happy soul when she beat Caroline Zhang and Ashley Wagner for the world junior title, but all of that disappointment went away when I saw her short program. Sometimes, you just like to see a skater who isn't so technically polished, but really fights for everything and who clearly enjoys skating. She really just looked like she was at the World Championship for the first time and she was going to enjoy every bit of it. Her spirals and spin positions are unquestionably in need of improvement, but her jumps are quite solid (a slight exception being the lutz) and she reminded be quite a bit of Stephanie Rosenthal from 2006 Nationals in terms of her ability to show that she enjoys skating.
- Fumie Suguri's skating, sadly, made me wish Yukari Nakano had been there instead. While Suguri did skate with some palpable fire in her short program, her Otonal long program was quite a festival of boredom. However, technically she was pretty strong, and her soft landings to her jumps are absolutely one of the strongest points to her skating, and such a quality was something that not many of the other girls had. She and Ando came very late to the SP warm-up, and Suguri herself was marked with going overtime by a second during her SP. I was looking at the clock as Suguri finished her SP. She reached her ending pose at 2:50, but the clock strangely went on an extra second to 2:51, thus incurring a deduction for being overtime.
- It was great to see Sarah Meier back in action, and I thoroughly impressed at how steady and relatively fit she looked considering her injuries and lack of training time. She looked very solid throughout her warm-ups and competition skates, and I particularly enjoyed her long program (the same LP she did last year), which had a particularly nice step sequence.
- Elene Gedevanishvilli has great spark and energy to her skating, and had a particularly nice triple lutz and triple toe+triple toe combination in her long program. She has excellent speed, just needs to polish her positions and improve her consistency.
- Alissa Czisny looked excellent during the SP warm-up, not missing a thing. After her triple lutz+double toe in the short, I thought we were in for an excellent program until Czisny held on to her triple flip entrance edge way too long (and thus too close to the boards), and she tried to get her weight forward to compensate for the lack of room she had, thus ending up falling. Her long program warm-up was also strong, landing the triple toe+double toe+double toe that she didn't do in her actual skate. Czisny landed two clean triple lutz+double toe combinations in her long, in addition to a triple flip. Her triple loop was noticeably under rotated, and was rightfully downgraded. While Czisny is a very elegant skater, she really does lack speed in comparison with the top women. I think that could play a part into why her jumps are so wonky, considering that she often goes into her jumps with fairly slow and tentative entrances.
- According to Philip Hersh's latest article, Carolina Kostner was not injured and this is most surprising. Kostner really needs to invigorate her training habits, because in the warm-up for the long program, I looked at her fairly closely and never saw a triple+triple attempt or a triple lutz attempt. I also didn't see a triple+triple attempt during her short, although if I remember correctly she did do a clean lutz during the warm-up. Her PCS score of 58.48 for her long program was absolutely absurd, although thankfully inconsequential to the final outcome. I actually was very disappointed when Kostner skated so poorly in the long, because I find her "Dumky Trio" long to be very elegant, yet fiery.
That is all.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
2009 World Figure Skating Championships-Ladies Preview
The 2009 World Figure Skating Championships will truly be a world competition, with female skaters from Japan, South Korea, Canada, United States, Finland, and Italy expected to contend for the top ranks at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, California, beginning on March 27th. The former powers of women's figure skating, the United States and Russia, have since demolished. But where popularity and success of the sport has declined there, in Asia it has done nothing but blossom. Prior to 2005, South Korea and figure skating would never be placed in the same sentence. Four years later, Yu-Na Kim has become one of the most recognizable athletes in Korean history, and with that, figure skating has become a colossally popular sport in that nation. Japan began to seriously follow the sport when Midori Ito emerged as a world champion in 1989, going on to win Olympic silver in 1992. After a drought of talent, the prospects for Japanese figure skating looked benign when several veterans and newcomers started accumulating success around 2002. However, it wasn't until a young, dainty girl by the name of Mao Asada started attempting triple axels at the age of 13, when Japan knew it had found its next ice queen. Heading into these World Championships, the two skaters will continue their electrifying rivalry to determine who is the best ladies figure skater in the world. Kim, expressive and dramatic, and Asada, light and airy, will be the contenders to beat at these World Championships and at the Olympic Games next February.
However, just because ladies skating has been dominated by the "Asian Invasion" doesn't mean that it ends there. Joannie Rochette of Canada will have something to say about a 1-2 finish for Kim and Asada, as she has beat Asada twice this season. Carolina Kostner of Italy split the two skaters at last year's World Championships, but that time it was Kim who had to settle for 3rd while battling a nagging back injury. The story lines fail to just end at who will receive gold, silver, and bronze, however. Three countries will be battling each other to secure a high enough finish (a combined placement of 13 from the two skaters of that country) to get three Olympic berths in 2010. Finland and Canada could realistically do without a third berth, but the United States would love more than anything to snatch it. With there being an immensely deep pool of talented yet inconsistent U.S. ladies skaters, and also adding in the potential comebacks of Sasha Cohen or Michelle Kwan, a third Olympic spot would be most desirable for the U.S. The reasoning is such that because all of the U.S. girls are roughly on the same plane in terms of their medal prospects, it doesn't hurt to send one more girl who may just have a Paul Wylie-esque Olympics.
With all of that said, one can never forget how truly prestigious the World Figure Skating Championships are. Skaters should be thrilled that they have even made it to Worlds, as several world-class skaters will not be able to make such a statement. Notable competitors absent from the world championship include Kiira Korpi, Kimmie Meissner, Mirai Nagasu, Yukari Nakano, Akiko Suzuki, Ashley Wagner, and Caroline Zhang. The cold, harsh reality is such that even if some of these aforementioned names will be in Vancouver, it will come at the expense of another skater who is equally as deserving.
Skaters Featured In Post
Miki Ando (Japan)
Mao Asada (Japan)
Alissa Czisny (USA)
Rachael Flatt (USA)
Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
Carolina Kostner (Italy)
Laura Lepisto (Finland)
Sarah Meier (Switzerland)
Cynthia Phaneuf (Canada)
Susanna Poykio (Finland)
Joannie Rochette (Canada)
Fumie Suguri (Japan)
Red indicates commentary of skater is featured in part 1 of post
Blue indicates commentary of skater is featured in part 2 of post
Miki Ando (Japan)
Expectations Coming In: Miki Ando has had an unsteady season thus far, finishing 6th out of six skaters at the Grand Prix Final and 3rd at the Japanese Nationals, barely finishing high enough to make the world team. She is a former world champion from 2007, but has seldom skated to that level since.
Pros: At her peak, Miki Ando has the capability to shove past her competitors with remarkable skates. The three best overall competitions of Miki's career: 2006 Skate America, 2007 World Championships, and the 2008 Japanese Nationals, all came when Miki wasn't favored to win. Considered an underdog in L.A., Miki could place highly with triple-triple combinations, an improved long program to the music of Camille Saint-Seans' "Organ Symphony," and a possible quadruple salchow jump. Ando will be one of the most experienced ladies competing in Los Angeles, and over the years has made noticeable improvement in her non-jump elements, notably her spins and footwork. Miki's total average score this season, a 165.85, is the 4th highest among the women competing in L.A. and is higher than that of last year's silver medalist, Carolina Kostner.
Cons: Ando has only been credited with landing one triple-triple combination among five attempts this season. Over a span of four competitions, Ando had a total of 15 jumps downgraded, and her possibly attempting a quadruple salchow in Los Angeles could backfire if the jump gets downgraded and if the element has a faulty landing. Ando was heavily criticized for her lack of artistry during CBC's coverage of the Grand Prix Final, with the normally benevolent Tracy Wilson commenting during her final step sequence, "This is the first time it's feeling to me [in the program] that she's starting to feel the music." While her PCS marks hover in the 55-56 range in the long program, they are not to the level of the 60+ PCS marks that go to the long programs of Mao Asada, Yu-Na Kim, and Joannie Rochette. The validity of Miki's ticket to L.A. has been a hot debate amongst skating fans, as many feel that Akiko Suzuki was under marked at Japanese Nationals and thus should have finished ahead of Ando's sub par performance.
Outlook: Ando's decision to include the quad should come on the basis of how her other elements, specifically jumps, are looking. Ando's scoring sheets have been littered with "<"s, although Miki is a skater who only needs to rotate her jumps ever so slightly more to get full credit, as opposed to a true chronic under rotater like Mirai Nagasu. If she still feels that she is at risk for receiving downgrades and lower levels (she received two level 2s during her free at GPF), than Ando might as well try the quad, as she would have nothing to lose to try such a daunting skill (other than injury). While much is up in the air regarding Ando's potential placement, there is one thing that is for certain. Miki does her best when she is the underdog. Making the world team as the third-ranked Japanese skater, and doing so by only .11 of a point, makes her exactly that.
Mao Asada (Japan)
Expectations Coming In: Asada is the reigning world champion, winning the title after suffering a horrific fall on a triple axel attempt and going on to skate brilliantly throughout the rest of the program. She has had an up-and-down season, winning the Grand Prix Final but only placing 3rd at the Four Continents Championships. With her recent loss in Vancouver, she will not be the favorite to win in Los Angeles.
Pros: The only woman at the World Championships who will even attempt a triple axel, Mao takes it a step further, attempting two in her long program. She landed both triple axels cleanly at the Grand Prix Final, going on to defeat Yu-Na Kim in her home country. Asada is known to be an exceptionally complete skater, with tremendous jumps, spins, footwork, and artistry. Asada is capable of landing triple-triple combinations in both programs, and no longer receives a deduction for flutzing. Asada also looks toward high GOEs for her jump combinations, where she often adds a Tano-style arm to her double jumps.
Cons: Asada performed poorly (by her standards) at the recent Four Continents Championships, and was rumored to be suffering a knee injury. Asada has not been credited with one triple-triple combination since last year's worlds, and out of seven triple axel attempts this season only four were ratified. Turning away from the technical standpoint of Asada's skating, her long program to the music of Aram Khachaturian's "Masquerade" has been criticized as bleak and desolate. Unfortunately, the program highlights Asada's weakness in not being able to relate to the audience as much as Yu-Na Kim, and her PCS marks were lower than Kim at the Grand Prix Final in both programs. In terms of averages this season, Asada's total score is 180.947, a full 7.86 points behind Kim's total average and only .975 ahead of Rochette's.
Outlook: If past history means anything, Asada will look improved from her Four Continents showing. Earlier this season, Asada improved dramatically between her season opener at Trophee Eric Bombard to the NHK Trophy, which was only two weeks later. Mao has performed very well at the last two world championships, and just to show those who wish to write her off, Asada still scored a very respectable 109.47 at this season's Trophee Eric Bombard, after what was undoubtedly one of the weakest skates in her career. However, Kim's victory in Vancouver does mean that Asada will have an uphill battle to defend her title. In that sense, a little reverse psychology could save the day. Midori Ito was overwhelmed by the monstrosity of pressure from the Japanese media at the 1992 Olympics, and she was entering the games as the 1989 World Champion and having finished off the podium at the 1991 Worlds. Considering how insufferable it could be for a two-time and reigning world champion heading into the Olympics, it may actually be a blessing in disguise if Asada is not crowned champion of the world in 2009.
Alissa Czisny (USA)
Expectations Going In: Czisny has showcased creditable improvement this year, with that rise meeting with a U.S. National title in January. However, her win in Cleveland was considered extremely debatable, mainly due to her substantially higher PCS marks in the long program. Going on to Four Continents Championships, two relatively shaky skates put her in 9th place overall, and will need to do much better to help assure the United States of three Olympic spots.
Pros: Take away the jumps, and Czisny is one of the finest skaters in the world. Armed with legs that extend to tomorrow and a quiet, serene elegance, Alissa has worked with Brian Boitano and his former coach, Linda Leaver, to improve her jumping technique and her ability to focus in competition. Alissa's inordinate spins, posture, and musicality have made it clear that if nothing else, the judges do still reward her with decent marks even if she skates less than lovely. This is evidenced by the fact that despite a flawed long program at the Four Continents Championships, she scored higher PCS marks than Cynthia Phaneuf, Caroline Zhang, Rachael Flatt, and Akiko Suzuki in that portion of the competition.
Cons: Many are fearful that Alissa's past inconsistencies will continue in California, where arguably the biggest test of her career will be placed. Czisny does not have a triple salchow in her jumping repertoire, and occasionally receives an "!" edge penalty on her triple flip. Czisny only has a 54% hit record of her triple jumps this season ( statistic doesn't include the summer B-competitions that she attended), and this is only with Alissa attempting five triples in the long program, when most of the other top ladies are doing six or seven. Czisny's clean short at the U.S. Nationals was the first time she had done a faultless short in a major competition since 2005 Skate Canada. Czisny's total score at the Four Continents Championships was her international seasons best score, where she still finished a disappointing 9th.
Outlook: Many think that the ship has already sailed regarding the United States' hope for three ladies spots in Vancouver next year, and the reason why is because Caroline Zhang wasn't on board. Czisny's worth as national champion, in addition to her spot on the world team, weakened when Zhang outscored Czisny by 11.41 points at 4CCs, putting Zhang's seasons best at 5th while putting Czisny's at 14th. Despite all of her past troubles and the controversy, Czisny will be going to Los Angeles to compete at her 2nd world championship, and if she does precisely what she didn't do in Tokyo at her first world championship (where she finished in 15th place) she should do just fine. First off, a clean short is a must. If nothing else, a clean short should get her into the final group for the free skate, which would help boost her PCS marks in the long. As far as the long program is concerned, Czisny has hinted that she will upgrade the content of her long program. The safest and most intelligent way to do this would probably be to replace one of her double axels with a triple loop. The loop has been her steadiest jump this season, and considering that even her double axels aren't particularly solid, she would have little to lose by making such a change. While Czisny's potential placement is still very much unclear, the judges have reiterated their appreciation for her elegant line and will reward her if she is to skate well.
Rachael Flatt (USA)
Expectations Going In: Flatt has lost the two U.S. titles by meager margins, but looking at the overall results this season she is going to worlds as the top American. Rachael is generally known to peak when it is most important, and she is a very strong jumper. However, her artistry, spins and speed take her out of immediate medal contention.
Pros: Flatt has triple-triple combinations planned in both programs, and has done seven clean triples in her long program more than once. Her choice to revert back to last year's long program to Mathieu's "Romantic Rhapsody" looks to be a good one in terms of boosting that critical second mark. Flatt peaked late in the season last year, arguably delivering the best skates of her career to win the world junior title ahead of Caroline Zhang and Mirai Nagasu. With many of her rivals known to fall apart in one way or another when the pressure is on, Flatt's consistency could dodge challenges from her fellow competitors to ensure a strong placement, as is her intelligent working of the code of points.
Cons: Flatt is heavily reliant on the triple jumps to get her a competitive score, but unfortunately Rachael has only managed one successful triple-triple combination this entire season. Flatt doesn't lengthen through her spine as she skates, thus creating the image of pore posture. Among other things, Flatt has been widely criticized for her generic programs, lack of speed, and unpolished positions in her spins and spirals. At the recent Four Continents Championships, Flatt's PCS marks in the long reflected these aforementioned areas that are in need of improvement, only scoring 51.04, the 9th highest PCS total of the free skate. Rachael has also received several "!" and even "e" wrong-edge deductions for her lutz.
Overall: Flatt's overall finish in Los Angeles could have quite a bit to do with how skaters like Ando, Lepisto, Phaneuf, and Suguri perform. Unfortunately, Rachel's scoring potential is not of top caliber because she lacks an overall signature to her skating, and she is not exempt to downgrades and wrong-edge deductions. While a medal may not be forthcoming, a high placement around 5th-7th could be there for her if she skates at her apex in California, and if other competitors open the door Rachael will be sure to walk through. Flatt is in many ways the polar opposite of Czisny, as Rachael is consistent yet unpolished whereas the reverse is true for Alissa. The two are capable of placing a combined 13th to get three Olympic spots, and Flatt will look to make as little mistakes as possible to take the pressure off of Alissa to complete the task at hand.
Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
Expectations Going In: Kim was a favorite to win the last two world championships, but a back injury impeded her abilities, thus forcing her to settle for bronze in both cases. An astoundingly popular athlete in her home country, Kim hopes that the third time will be the charm in Los Angeles. Despite a loss at home during the Grand Prix Final, her victory at the Four Continents Championships against a deep field cements her status as favorite at worlds.
Pros: Blessed with immaculate security on her jumps, improved spins and spirals and a true sense of musicality in her programs, the two-time Grand Prix Final Champion has the highest total average score this season, a 188.805. While Asada may have the advantage in quantity, Kim will make that up with the quality of her elements, with +1 and +2 GOEs frequently flocking to her triple-triple combinations, triple lutzes, and double axels. Her PCS marks in the long program have not been below 60 for the entirety of this season, and she is less prone to getting downgrades and wrong-edge deductions than many of her other top competitors. Kim holds the two highest scores in the short program (72.24 and 71.95) and the highest free skate mark (133.70) in the history of the current judging system.
Cons: Despite winning the 2009 Four Continents title with room to spare, Kim did have notable mistakes in the long program, falling and under rotating her triple loop and also under rotating her triple lutz. The triple loop has been Kim's chief weakness throughout her career, and has not landed the jump in competition since November 2007. Kim's back has been a source of injury for her, and despite being a strong favorite for the title the last two years, she was injured and suffered errors in the long (2007) and the short (2008), that prevented her from winning. Yu-Na is not the most technically polished skater out there, which is evident in many of her spin and spiral positions.
Outlook: The first task that is in order for Kim to win her first world title is to say farewell to the triple loop. Practise reports indicate that Kim can do the jump, and she has landed it twice in competition, but it has become an enormous psychological obstacle for her. Luckily, switching a double axel should save the day, as she has done at many past championships. Her double axel in place of the triple loop in the long at this season's Grand Prix Final received a +1.80 GOE, thus receiving a total of 5.30 points for the element. The most Kim has ever received for a triple loop is 5.50 points, so realistically the risk isn't worth the reward. Where Kim will look to blast through her competition is in the short program, where a score of 70 is possible. However, leading after the short is also a double-edged sword, as proven with her faulty long programs after being in the lead at the 2007 Worlds and 2008 Grand Prix Final. A few minor errors aside, Kim looks healthy and fit this season and Brian Orser will look to peak her at just the right time so that the 2009 world title will be hers for the taking.
Carolina Kostner (Italy)
Expectations Going In: Kostner has two world medals, a bronze from 2005 and a silver from 2008. Kostner is expected to be sturdy medal threat in L.A., although the top spot on the podium will continue to be elusive for the Italian. Kostner has not had the best season, as evidenced by her losing the European title to Laura Lepisto. Thus, a world medal of any color will be considered an accomplishment.
Pros: With speed that puts Apollo Anton Ohno to shame, Kostner is a fine jumper and is known for her excpetional spiral and step sequences. Kostner frequently scores above 110 points in the free because she is usually immune to under rotating jumps, and receiving wrong-edge penalties on either her lutz or flip. Having graduated from being a newcomer, Kostner is now an experienced veteran and will be entering her 7th world championship in March. Having not had such an excellent season, she won't have as much pressure as skaters like Asada, Kim, and Rochette. Kostner took advantage of a poor short program from Joannie Rochette at the Grand Prix Final to win the bronze medal, despite Carolina having a fairly rough long program herself.
Cons: Kostner has poor technique on her double axel jump, and often breaks flow and telegraphs the entrances to many of her jumping passes. Carolina is not known to be the best spinner, and on that note, she recently lost the European title on the basis that she wasn't given any credit for a combination spin in the long program (she apparently did too many revolutions to count the spin as a sit spin combination, and instead it was counted as an extra combination spin). Kostner has struggled with skating cleanly at the world championships, let alone in both programs. Many consider her silver medal from last year's worlds to be a ludicrous result, and it is rumored that the ISU took a lot of criticism for the result as well.
Outlook: If it is to be assumed that Kim and Asada are to finish 1-2 (which is by no means a guarantee), Joannie Rochette should prove to be Kostner's toughest rival for the bronze medal. Per the results of the season, Rochette looks to have a distinct advantage over Kostner, as Rochette has a 179.973 seasons average as opposed to Kostner's 164.228. Kostner will come into L.A. as somewhat of an outside medal threat, but she should continue to be the only European lady capable of medaling at the world championship, something that could help her out politically. Nerves have impeded her progress on the world stage, which is a real shame. Her 2007 worlds short program showed to everyone that in the event where she is to relax and just skate, the result is sublime.
Part 2 to come shortly.
That is all.
However, just because ladies skating has been dominated by the "Asian Invasion" doesn't mean that it ends there. Joannie Rochette of Canada will have something to say about a 1-2 finish for Kim and Asada, as she has beat Asada twice this season. Carolina Kostner of Italy split the two skaters at last year's World Championships, but that time it was Kim who had to settle for 3rd while battling a nagging back injury. The story lines fail to just end at who will receive gold, silver, and bronze, however. Three countries will be battling each other to secure a high enough finish (a combined placement of 13 from the two skaters of that country) to get three Olympic berths in 2010. Finland and Canada could realistically do without a third berth, but the United States would love more than anything to snatch it. With there being an immensely deep pool of talented yet inconsistent U.S. ladies skaters, and also adding in the potential comebacks of Sasha Cohen or Michelle Kwan, a third Olympic spot would be most desirable for the U.S. The reasoning is such that because all of the U.S. girls are roughly on the same plane in terms of their medal prospects, it doesn't hurt to send one more girl who may just have a Paul Wylie-esque Olympics.
With all of that said, one can never forget how truly prestigious the World Figure Skating Championships are. Skaters should be thrilled that they have even made it to Worlds, as several world-class skaters will not be able to make such a statement. Notable competitors absent from the world championship include Kiira Korpi, Kimmie Meissner, Mirai Nagasu, Yukari Nakano, Akiko Suzuki, Ashley Wagner, and Caroline Zhang. The cold, harsh reality is such that even if some of these aforementioned names will be in Vancouver, it will come at the expense of another skater who is equally as deserving.
Skaters Featured In Post
Miki Ando (Japan)
Mao Asada (Japan)
Alissa Czisny (USA)
Rachael Flatt (USA)
Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
Carolina Kostner (Italy)
Laura Lepisto (Finland)
Sarah Meier (Switzerland)
Cynthia Phaneuf (Canada)
Susanna Poykio (Finland)
Joannie Rochette (Canada)
Fumie Suguri (Japan)
Red indicates commentary of skater is featured in part 1 of post
Blue indicates commentary of skater is featured in part 2 of post
Miki Ando (Japan)
Expectations Coming In: Miki Ando has had an unsteady season thus far, finishing 6th out of six skaters at the Grand Prix Final and 3rd at the Japanese Nationals, barely finishing high enough to make the world team. She is a former world champion from 2007, but has seldom skated to that level since.
Pros: At her peak, Miki Ando has the capability to shove past her competitors with remarkable skates. The three best overall competitions of Miki's career: 2006 Skate America, 2007 World Championships, and the 2008 Japanese Nationals, all came when Miki wasn't favored to win. Considered an underdog in L.A., Miki could place highly with triple-triple combinations, an improved long program to the music of Camille Saint-Seans' "Organ Symphony," and a possible quadruple salchow jump. Ando will be one of the most experienced ladies competing in Los Angeles, and over the years has made noticeable improvement in her non-jump elements, notably her spins and footwork. Miki's total average score this season, a 165.85, is the 4th highest among the women competing in L.A. and is higher than that of last year's silver medalist, Carolina Kostner.
Cons: Ando has only been credited with landing one triple-triple combination among five attempts this season. Over a span of four competitions, Ando had a total of 15 jumps downgraded, and her possibly attempting a quadruple salchow in Los Angeles could backfire if the jump gets downgraded and if the element has a faulty landing. Ando was heavily criticized for her lack of artistry during CBC's coverage of the Grand Prix Final, with the normally benevolent Tracy Wilson commenting during her final step sequence, "This is the first time it's feeling to me [in the program] that she's starting to feel the music." While her PCS marks hover in the 55-56 range in the long program, they are not to the level of the 60+ PCS marks that go to the long programs of Mao Asada, Yu-Na Kim, and Joannie Rochette. The validity of Miki's ticket to L.A. has been a hot debate amongst skating fans, as many feel that Akiko Suzuki was under marked at Japanese Nationals and thus should have finished ahead of Ando's sub par performance.
Outlook: Ando's decision to include the quad should come on the basis of how her other elements, specifically jumps, are looking. Ando's scoring sheets have been littered with "<"s, although Miki is a skater who only needs to rotate her jumps ever so slightly more to get full credit, as opposed to a true chronic under rotater like Mirai Nagasu. If she still feels that she is at risk for receiving downgrades and lower levels (she received two level 2s during her free at GPF), than Ando might as well try the quad, as she would have nothing to lose to try such a daunting skill (other than injury). While much is up in the air regarding Ando's potential placement, there is one thing that is for certain. Miki does her best when she is the underdog. Making the world team as the third-ranked Japanese skater, and doing so by only .11 of a point, makes her exactly that.
Mao Asada (Japan)
Expectations Coming In: Asada is the reigning world champion, winning the title after suffering a horrific fall on a triple axel attempt and going on to skate brilliantly throughout the rest of the program. She has had an up-and-down season, winning the Grand Prix Final but only placing 3rd at the Four Continents Championships. With her recent loss in Vancouver, she will not be the favorite to win in Los Angeles.
Pros: The only woman at the World Championships who will even attempt a triple axel, Mao takes it a step further, attempting two in her long program. She landed both triple axels cleanly at the Grand Prix Final, going on to defeat Yu-Na Kim in her home country. Asada is known to be an exceptionally complete skater, with tremendous jumps, spins, footwork, and artistry. Asada is capable of landing triple-triple combinations in both programs, and no longer receives a deduction for flutzing. Asada also looks toward high GOEs for her jump combinations, where she often adds a Tano-style arm to her double jumps.
Cons: Asada performed poorly (by her standards) at the recent Four Continents Championships, and was rumored to be suffering a knee injury. Asada has not been credited with one triple-triple combination since last year's worlds, and out of seven triple axel attempts this season only four were ratified. Turning away from the technical standpoint of Asada's skating, her long program to the music of Aram Khachaturian's "Masquerade" has been criticized as bleak and desolate. Unfortunately, the program highlights Asada's weakness in not being able to relate to the audience as much as Yu-Na Kim, and her PCS marks were lower than Kim at the Grand Prix Final in both programs. In terms of averages this season, Asada's total score is 180.947, a full 7.86 points behind Kim's total average and only .975 ahead of Rochette's.
Outlook: If past history means anything, Asada will look improved from her Four Continents showing. Earlier this season, Asada improved dramatically between her season opener at Trophee Eric Bombard to the NHK Trophy, which was only two weeks later. Mao has performed very well at the last two world championships, and just to show those who wish to write her off, Asada still scored a very respectable 109.47 at this season's Trophee Eric Bombard, after what was undoubtedly one of the weakest skates in her career. However, Kim's victory in Vancouver does mean that Asada will have an uphill battle to defend her title. In that sense, a little reverse psychology could save the day. Midori Ito was overwhelmed by the monstrosity of pressure from the Japanese media at the 1992 Olympics, and she was entering the games as the 1989 World Champion and having finished off the podium at the 1991 Worlds. Considering how insufferable it could be for a two-time and reigning world champion heading into the Olympics, it may actually be a blessing in disguise if Asada is not crowned champion of the world in 2009.
Alissa Czisny (USA)
Expectations Going In: Czisny has showcased creditable improvement this year, with that rise meeting with a U.S. National title in January. However, her win in Cleveland was considered extremely debatable, mainly due to her substantially higher PCS marks in the long program. Going on to Four Continents Championships, two relatively shaky skates put her in 9th place overall, and will need to do much better to help assure the United States of three Olympic spots.
Pros: Take away the jumps, and Czisny is one of the finest skaters in the world. Armed with legs that extend to tomorrow and a quiet, serene elegance, Alissa has worked with Brian Boitano and his former coach, Linda Leaver, to improve her jumping technique and her ability to focus in competition. Alissa's inordinate spins, posture, and musicality have made it clear that if nothing else, the judges do still reward her with decent marks even if she skates less than lovely. This is evidenced by the fact that despite a flawed long program at the Four Continents Championships, she scored higher PCS marks than Cynthia Phaneuf, Caroline Zhang, Rachael Flatt, and Akiko Suzuki in that portion of the competition.
Cons: Many are fearful that Alissa's past inconsistencies will continue in California, where arguably the biggest test of her career will be placed. Czisny does not have a triple salchow in her jumping repertoire, and occasionally receives an "!" edge penalty on her triple flip. Czisny only has a 54% hit record of her triple jumps this season ( statistic doesn't include the summer B-competitions that she attended), and this is only with Alissa attempting five triples in the long program, when most of the other top ladies are doing six or seven. Czisny's clean short at the U.S. Nationals was the first time she had done a faultless short in a major competition since 2005 Skate Canada. Czisny's total score at the Four Continents Championships was her international seasons best score, where she still finished a disappointing 9th.
Outlook: Many think that the ship has already sailed regarding the United States' hope for three ladies spots in Vancouver next year, and the reason why is because Caroline Zhang wasn't on board. Czisny's worth as national champion, in addition to her spot on the world team, weakened when Zhang outscored Czisny by 11.41 points at 4CCs, putting Zhang's seasons best at 5th while putting Czisny's at 14th. Despite all of her past troubles and the controversy, Czisny will be going to Los Angeles to compete at her 2nd world championship, and if she does precisely what she didn't do in Tokyo at her first world championship (where she finished in 15th place) she should do just fine. First off, a clean short is a must. If nothing else, a clean short should get her into the final group for the free skate, which would help boost her PCS marks in the long. As far as the long program is concerned, Czisny has hinted that she will upgrade the content of her long program. The safest and most intelligent way to do this would probably be to replace one of her double axels with a triple loop. The loop has been her steadiest jump this season, and considering that even her double axels aren't particularly solid, she would have little to lose by making such a change. While Czisny's potential placement is still very much unclear, the judges have reiterated their appreciation for her elegant line and will reward her if she is to skate well.
Rachael Flatt (USA)
Expectations Going In: Flatt has lost the two U.S. titles by meager margins, but looking at the overall results this season she is going to worlds as the top American. Rachael is generally known to peak when it is most important, and she is a very strong jumper. However, her artistry, spins and speed take her out of immediate medal contention.
Pros: Flatt has triple-triple combinations planned in both programs, and has done seven clean triples in her long program more than once. Her choice to revert back to last year's long program to Mathieu's "Romantic Rhapsody" looks to be a good one in terms of boosting that critical second mark. Flatt peaked late in the season last year, arguably delivering the best skates of her career to win the world junior title ahead of Caroline Zhang and Mirai Nagasu. With many of her rivals known to fall apart in one way or another when the pressure is on, Flatt's consistency could dodge challenges from her fellow competitors to ensure a strong placement, as is her intelligent working of the code of points.
Cons: Flatt is heavily reliant on the triple jumps to get her a competitive score, but unfortunately Rachael has only managed one successful triple-triple combination this entire season. Flatt doesn't lengthen through her spine as she skates, thus creating the image of pore posture. Among other things, Flatt has been widely criticized for her generic programs, lack of speed, and unpolished positions in her spins and spirals. At the recent Four Continents Championships, Flatt's PCS marks in the long reflected these aforementioned areas that are in need of improvement, only scoring 51.04, the 9th highest PCS total of the free skate. Rachael has also received several "!" and even "e" wrong-edge deductions for her lutz.
Overall: Flatt's overall finish in Los Angeles could have quite a bit to do with how skaters like Ando, Lepisto, Phaneuf, and Suguri perform. Unfortunately, Rachel's scoring potential is not of top caliber because she lacks an overall signature to her skating, and she is not exempt to downgrades and wrong-edge deductions. While a medal may not be forthcoming, a high placement around 5th-7th could be there for her if she skates at her apex in California, and if other competitors open the door Rachael will be sure to walk through. Flatt is in many ways the polar opposite of Czisny, as Rachael is consistent yet unpolished whereas the reverse is true for Alissa. The two are capable of placing a combined 13th to get three Olympic spots, and Flatt will look to make as little mistakes as possible to take the pressure off of Alissa to complete the task at hand.
Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
Expectations Going In: Kim was a favorite to win the last two world championships, but a back injury impeded her abilities, thus forcing her to settle for bronze in both cases. An astoundingly popular athlete in her home country, Kim hopes that the third time will be the charm in Los Angeles. Despite a loss at home during the Grand Prix Final, her victory at the Four Continents Championships against a deep field cements her status as favorite at worlds.
Pros: Blessed with immaculate security on her jumps, improved spins and spirals and a true sense of musicality in her programs, the two-time Grand Prix Final Champion has the highest total average score this season, a 188.805. While Asada may have the advantage in quantity, Kim will make that up with the quality of her elements, with +1 and +2 GOEs frequently flocking to her triple-triple combinations, triple lutzes, and double axels. Her PCS marks in the long program have not been below 60 for the entirety of this season, and she is less prone to getting downgrades and wrong-edge deductions than many of her other top competitors. Kim holds the two highest scores in the short program (72.24 and 71.95) and the highest free skate mark (133.70) in the history of the current judging system.
Cons: Despite winning the 2009 Four Continents title with room to spare, Kim did have notable mistakes in the long program, falling and under rotating her triple loop and also under rotating her triple lutz. The triple loop has been Kim's chief weakness throughout her career, and has not landed the jump in competition since November 2007. Kim's back has been a source of injury for her, and despite being a strong favorite for the title the last two years, she was injured and suffered errors in the long (2007) and the short (2008), that prevented her from winning. Yu-Na is not the most technically polished skater out there, which is evident in many of her spin and spiral positions.
Outlook: The first task that is in order for Kim to win her first world title is to say farewell to the triple loop. Practise reports indicate that Kim can do the jump, and she has landed it twice in competition, but it has become an enormous psychological obstacle for her. Luckily, switching a double axel should save the day, as she has done at many past championships. Her double axel in place of the triple loop in the long at this season's Grand Prix Final received a +1.80 GOE, thus receiving a total of 5.30 points for the element. The most Kim has ever received for a triple loop is 5.50 points, so realistically the risk isn't worth the reward. Where Kim will look to blast through her competition is in the short program, where a score of 70 is possible. However, leading after the short is also a double-edged sword, as proven with her faulty long programs after being in the lead at the 2007 Worlds and 2008 Grand Prix Final. A few minor errors aside, Kim looks healthy and fit this season and Brian Orser will look to peak her at just the right time so that the 2009 world title will be hers for the taking.
Carolina Kostner (Italy)
Expectations Going In: Kostner has two world medals, a bronze from 2005 and a silver from 2008. Kostner is expected to be sturdy medal threat in L.A., although the top spot on the podium will continue to be elusive for the Italian. Kostner has not had the best season, as evidenced by her losing the European title to Laura Lepisto. Thus, a world medal of any color will be considered an accomplishment.
Pros: With speed that puts Apollo Anton Ohno to shame, Kostner is a fine jumper and is known for her excpetional spiral and step sequences. Kostner frequently scores above 110 points in the free because she is usually immune to under rotating jumps, and receiving wrong-edge penalties on either her lutz or flip. Having graduated from being a newcomer, Kostner is now an experienced veteran and will be entering her 7th world championship in March. Having not had such an excellent season, she won't have as much pressure as skaters like Asada, Kim, and Rochette. Kostner took advantage of a poor short program from Joannie Rochette at the Grand Prix Final to win the bronze medal, despite Carolina having a fairly rough long program herself.
Cons: Kostner has poor technique on her double axel jump, and often breaks flow and telegraphs the entrances to many of her jumping passes. Carolina is not known to be the best spinner, and on that note, she recently lost the European title on the basis that she wasn't given any credit for a combination spin in the long program (she apparently did too many revolutions to count the spin as a sit spin combination, and instead it was counted as an extra combination spin). Kostner has struggled with skating cleanly at the world championships, let alone in both programs. Many consider her silver medal from last year's worlds to be a ludicrous result, and it is rumored that the ISU took a lot of criticism for the result as well.
Outlook: If it is to be assumed that Kim and Asada are to finish 1-2 (which is by no means a guarantee), Joannie Rochette should prove to be Kostner's toughest rival for the bronze medal. Per the results of the season, Rochette looks to have a distinct advantage over Kostner, as Rochette has a 179.973 seasons average as opposed to Kostner's 164.228. Kostner will come into L.A. as somewhat of an outside medal threat, but she should continue to be the only European lady capable of medaling at the world championship, something that could help her out politically. Nerves have impeded her progress on the world stage, which is a real shame. Her 2007 worlds short program showed to everyone that in the event where she is to relax and just skate, the result is sublime.
Part 2 to come shortly.
That is all.
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