Thousands of Japanese skating fans bought tickets to the 2009 ISU Grand Prix Final with the expectations that they would be witnessing their hometown heroine, Mao Asada, take on her premier rival, Yu-Na Kim, in a pre-Olympic showdown. While Kim easily qualified to this event, Asada's career hit rock bottom at Cup of Russia, where three failed attempts at the storied triple axel lead her to finish off the podium for only the second time in her career as a senior level skater. Asada's absence from the Yoyogi National Stadium in Tokyo next week is of a particularly sad irony, as the 2008 world champion won this event in that very arena back in 2005 when she was not age-eligible to compete at the 2006 Olympic Games. With Asada out, the Japanese will now look to 2007 world champion Miki Ando, the winner of two Grand Prix events this season, to try and match Kim. Another athlete from the host nation, Akiko Suzuki, will be looking to secure an Olympic berth at the Grand Prix Final, which would be quite an inspirational culmination to a career that was stagnated by Anorexia five years ago. Alena Leonova will be making her first trip to the Final and could be looking at a podium finish if her consistency remains intact. The only United States representative for the ladies in Tokyo, Ashley Wagner, is seeming to provide some light at the end of the tunnel for the shallow state of U.S. ladies figure skating. However, Kim's top rival won't be Suzuki, it won't be Leonova, it won't be Wagner, and it may not even be Ando. The international judges have not always sided with the five-time Canadian champion Joannie Rochette, but they are appearing to favor her immensely now, late in her career, to become the first Canadian ladies medalist at an Olympic Games since Elizabeth Manley in 1988.
While the Grand Prix Final is not life or death, there is still much to be gained and much to be lost at this event. For Kim, another less than desirable performance could cause some of her immense favor from the judges to diminish. Despite winning Skate Canada, Rochette has not skated with enough quality this season to realistically challenge the likes of Kim. Ando and Suzuki are both battling one another to become the highest placing Japanese skater, and thus, a winner of an Olympic berth. Leonova is set to be on her nation's Olympic team, but needs a strong competition here to even be considered as a remotely realistic prospect for a medal in Vancouver. It is certainly advantageous for Wagner to be the only American here, but having just barely placed ahead of the top two finishers from last year's U.S. nationals, Alissa Czisny and Rachael Flatt, Wagner's opportunity for receiving one of the two Olympic berths allotted for the American ladies in Vancouver is by no means assured. When also factoring in the potential return of 2006 Olympic silver medalist Sasha Cohen, Wagner needs nothing less than a strong showing here to further prove her worth of an Olympic berth. The Grand Prix series up to this point has been unpredictable enough, and with six of the top female figure skaters in the world skating in one event, that unpredictability shouldn't die off. With much to gain and much to lose, the skaters will be demanded to produce their competitive mettle to wish for a medal at this competition. This event could ultimately foreshadow what is to occur at the biggest outing of these athletes' lives, the XXI Winter Olympic Games in Vancouver, Canada.
The Finalists
Miki Ando (Japan)
Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
Alena Leonova (Russia)
Joannie Rochette (Canada)
Akiko Suzuki (Japan)
Ashley Wagner (USA)
Miki Ando (Japan)
Top Achievements: 2007 World Champion, 2009 world bronze medalist, Four-time Grand Prix finalist, 2009 NHK Trophy Champion, 2009 Rostelecom Cup Champion, 2006 Skate America Champion, 2006 Olympian, 2004/2005 Japanese champion
Pros: With Asada's demise, Ando has become the current top female skater in Japan, having won both of her Grand Prix events this season. Lauded for her high, secure jumps, the 2007 world champion is the only female skater to have ever landed a quadruple jump in competition. Ando is capable of landing triple lutz-triple loop combos, a jumping pass more difficult than the triple lutz-triple toe Yu-Na Kim is currently attempting, and Ando has also avoided receiving an edge call on either her lutz or her flip this season. Ando has shown improved artistry in her programs for this year, with a short program to Mozart's "Requiem" and a Cleopatra-themed long program to the soundtracks from both the television series "Rome" and "Marco Polo." The judges have been marking Ando's PCS marks favorably this year, and her artistic score has been consistently higher this season than it was during her Grand Prix events last year.
Cons: Ando's improvement artistically still does not make her a true "artist" on the ice, as she lags behind several of the top female skaters in musicality, posture, and extension. Ando's primary resource for boosting her score is jumps, but those haven't been especially brilliant since last season's worlds. Her lone attempt at a triple-triple so far this season ended with both a faulty landing and a downgrade on the second jump. Ando has also had issues with her double axel-triple toe loop combination, both falling and under rotating the pass at the Rostelecom Cup and nixing the combo entirely when she struggled with it during the women's free warm-up at NHK. Particularly with the intense media scrutiny in Japan, Ando will have much more pressure placed on her at this event being the top female Japanese skater, a position she has little experience filling. Ando has historically not done well at the Grand Prix Final: While she has qualified four times, she has never brought home a medal.
Outlook: Ando is one to perform at her peak whilst the underdog, and with Asada out of the Grand Prix Final, entering the competition as Japan's premier female skater will bring about all sorts of new challenges for the two-time world medalist. Perhaps these challenges are what Ando is most looking forward to overcome, however, as she has commented that she absolutely wants to erase the disaster that was her 15th place finish in Torino. Although Ando did win both of her Grand Prix events, that accomplishment is not especially great when considering that her scores at Rostelecom and NHK were the two lowest winning scores throughout the six events, and her score of 162.55 at the latter event would not have even medaled at either Trophee Eric Bompard or Cup of China. However, perhaps, that is good news for her. Ando has not often shown to be capable of staying at her peak for an extended period of time, and poor showings at this event in 2006 and 2008 did not negatively impact her showing at the World Championships for those seasons in the least. Claiming an Olympic berth here would be ideal, and if Suzuki doesn't regain her Cup of China form, Ando should have no issue doing so. Considering Suzuki's poor showing at Skate Canada, and Ando's victories over Leonova and Wagner at Rostelecom and NHK, Ando appears destined for her first Grand Prix medal, but Ando winning this competition is about as likely as Sarah Palin disappearing from the public eye.
Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
Top Achievements: 2009 World Champion, 2007 and 2008 world bronze medalist, 2006 and 2007 Grand Prix Final Champion, 2008 and 2009 Skate America Champion, 2006 and 2009 Trophee Eric Bompard Champion, 2009 Four Continents Champion, 2008 Grand Prix Final silver medalist, 2007 and 2008 Cup of China Champion, 2007 Cup of Russia Champion
Pros: The Roger Federer of ladies figure skating, South Korean superstar Yu-Na Kim owns both the current World title and the world record scores in the short program, free skate, and overall segment score. She achieved her world record free skate score of 133.95 at the recent Trophee Eric Bompard, where she completely jettisoned her triple flip and had four of her five non-jump elements only graded at a level three. Kim has been undefeated since this event last year, and the last time any of the 2009 Grand Prix Final qualifiers beat Kim was when Miki Ando won her world title in March 2007. Kim has breathtaking jumps, including her signature triple-triple combinations, and is the only woman to have ever received at or above +2 GOE on a jumping pass under the code of points in international competition. Kim also demonstrates commendable speed and interpretation in her two current programs: a flirtatious, scintillating short to the medley from the "James Bond" movies, and a polished, elegant long to Gershwin's "Piano Concerto in F."
Cons: Kim had one of her worst long programs in memory at her most recent competition, Skate America, losing that phase of the event to Rachael Flatt, a skater whose score at the 2009 World Championships was a staggering 17.94 points off of securing a medal. Kim had far less pressure and outside competition than she will in Tokyo or in Vancouver at Skate America, and her overall score at that event would not have medaled at last year's worlds. Kim has a colossal amount of pressure from the people of her homeland and she was seen in tears after performing her short program at last year's Grand Prix Final (held in South Korea), where she popped open her triple lutz. The current world champion has also struggled with maintaining her health for key competitions. Kim was ill for this event last year, and entered both the 2007 and 2008 World Championships battling a back injury. At all three competitions, Kim missed the gold medal at stake. Kim has not landed seven clean triples in a single program since 2007 Cup of Russia, and has not even done six cleanly since 2008 Skate America. Kim has substandard positions on her layback, Bielmann, and spiral positions, and she appears to be no longer keeping the triple loop jump in her repertoire.
Outlook: Kim picked the perfect competition to have a poor long program at Skate America. She seemed relieved, albeit disappointed, in the kiss and cry following the skate, which perhaps means that she just needed an event to get a bad skate out of her system, much like last year when she had a shaky outing at GPF only to win Four Continents and Worlds thereafter. If Kim goes clean, or close to it, she will simply be untouchable for the other women. Kim has broken 76 in the short program three times, whereas the highest score ever posted by any of her competitors at this event was a 70 by Rochette. Adding 5.5 points for the lost triple flip to her Trophee Eric Bompard long program score, Kim would be looking at a mark near 140. Add in some positive grades of execution for that element (during her short program at Skate America she received +1.8 GOE), a few more level fours for her spins, and a slight increase to her PCS score, Kim could be looking at a LP score near 145 if she goes absolutely clean. Taking Asada's score from WTT where she had an excellent free and adding back the points she lost for two downgraded jumps (plus some additional positive GOE) her score "only" hovers around 137. Kim has this gold medal and, most importantly, the Olympic gold medal, in the bag if she skates near her full potential. Winning this event will be a help to Kim's confidence and will win her a medal and some prize money, but in the end will count for hardly anything. If Yu-Na Kim is able to enter the Olympic Games in February in prime physical condition and a confident mindset, her name will be plastered adjacent to 1 on the scoreboard. There will simply be no way for anyone to catch her, not even a hometown boost for Rochette, not even three triple axels for Asada.
Alena Leonova (Russia)
Top Achievements: 2009 NHK Trophy silver medalist, 2009 Cup of Russia bronze medalist, 2009 Finlandia Trophy Champion, 2009 World Championships-7th place, 2009 World Junior Champion, 2009 European Championships-4th
Pros: The vivacious Russian is continuing to build off of her breakthrough last season with a win at the Finlandia Trophy and two medals on the Grand Prix circuit, which enabled her to qualify to this competition for the first time. Leonova finished a strong 7th at her first World Championships last year, and is noted to be one of the more consistent jumpers in the world today. Leonova has a full arsenal of triples (besides the axel) and has upgraded her jumping content from last season with a new triple toe-triple toe combination. Leonova is a fan favorite for her spunky personality on the ice and shows that off to its best with a short program to the Russian folk song "Barynya" and a long program to the soundtrack from "Chicago." Leonova could gain political favor at this event, as she is the only European lady to have qualified.
Cons: Leonova has the lowest average short program score from the Grand Prix series among the six qualifiers, and has the second lowest average PCS score from the long program. Also, Leonova's seasons best scores in the long program and overall segment total are the lowest among the six qualifiers. Leonova has unsatisfactory extension and her spins are far from brilliant. Leonova received edge calls for each of her four lutzes that she did throughout her two Grand Prixs, and she has failed to complete her new triple-triple combination after four attempts in competition thus far. Although Leonova always sells her programs, there is little else in her skating that supports her program components score. Her transitions are relatively choppy and her choreography is not the most difficult; therefore, the judges have yet to give her superior marks in that area.
Outlook: Leonova may be lacking in polish and refinement, but one thing she has that cannot be said for any of the other top European ladies is consistency. Gedevanishvilli, Korpi, Kostner, Lepisto, and Poykio struggle with varying degrees to consistently land their jumps and to avoid meltdowns at major events. Kostner is absolutely the top European lady at her prime, but that she has been not since her meltdown in Los Angeles and 6th place finishes at Trophee Eric Bompard and Cup of China. If Kostner doesn't get her act together, Kiira Korpi may end up being Leonova's top rival for a European title if Korpi's over scoring from Cup of China continues. This is where the importance of this event comes to Leonova. A strong placement here, and especially a podium finish, should not only help Leonova's confidence, but it also should give her a boost from the judges come Europeans to vie for the gold medal. Leonova is doubtful to reach the medals stand in Vancouver, but strong showings here and at Europeans should help the 19-year-old Leonova to stay competitive and to fend off a potential influx of upcoming Russian ladies skaters in the next quadrennium.
Joannie Rochette (Canada)
Top Achievements: 2006, 2008, and 2009 Skate Canada Champion, 2009 World silver medalist, 2008 and 2009 Four Continents silver medalist, 2005-2009 Canadian Champion, 2004 and 2008 Trophee Eric Bompard Champion, 2006 Olympic Games-5th, 2004 Grand Prix Final bronze medalist
Pros: Rochette is one of the best examples of skaters who combine the technical and artistic aspects of skating seamlessly, as her skating possesses strong, high jumps, and creditable musicality and choreography. On the technical side, Rochette not only avoids the wrong edge deductions on the lutz and flip, but also rotates her jumps consistently, and she is rewarded for being one of the few female skaters to consistently demonstrate those merits of fine jumping technique. On the artistic side, Rochette has strong skating skills and agility of the blade, and has augmented her expression and artistry over the past several seasons. Rochette has taken much effort into improving her ability to peak under pressure, whether it be touring with Stars On Ice or announcing publicly her intentions of winning a world championship medal last season. Having been successful in her endeavor to win a world championship medal last year, and having just recently won Skate Canada by over 20 points without skating at her optimum, Rochette has proven that she is entirely in the running to win Canada's first Olympic medal for ladies figure skating in over two decades.
Cons: Rochette had a meltdown during her short program at Cup of China, doubling the front end of her combination and leaving out the second jump entirely. She later went on to single her axel, finishing 7th in that phase and 3rd overall. The short program was what cost Rochette a medal at this event last year, and she also finished behind Cynthia Phaneuf (who had a fall) during the SP phase of the 2009 Canadian Nationals. Rochette has hopes of doing a triple-triple combination in her short, but has not once completed the element successfully. Rochette delivered a superb free skate at the Japan Open, a competition of little significance, but her condition went down at Cup of China and Skate Canada, where she executed weaker free skates that scored around 15 points lower than what she received at an inconsequential competition early on in the year. Rochette's potential scoring ability when going clean is considerably less than that of Kim or even Asada. Rochette's score for a clean, seven-triple long program at last year's Canadian Nationals was a 131.77, over two points lower than what Yu-Na Kim received in France for a five-triple program. Even when adding a hypothetical triple lutz-triple toe combination, Rochette's SP score at Skate Canada would still only be 72.7 (give or take depending on GOE and PCS), which is over three points lower than the personal bests of Asada and Kim. These scores, of course, are given in the event where Rochette is to do a clean long program, something she has never done internationally, and when she is to do a triple lutz-triple toe combination in the short, something she has never done.
Outlook: Rochette is faced with a dilemma off the bat. On one hand, she needs a triple-triple in the short to stay within striking distance of Kim for the gold medal, but she has every potential to still be in the running for an Olympic podium spot, but not necessarily gold, with a triple-double combination. This is where the Grand Prix Final comes in handy. It will be the ideal event for Rochette to test out the triple-triple combination, and to see how her rivals, specifically Kim, are looking. Rochette would obviously enjoy a podium finish here, and two strong showings should easily do the trick, but the five-time Canadian champion has not been especially impressive thus far this season. Her Cup of China performances were uneven, and she had a shaky long at Skate Canada. Thus, it is possible that Rochette may perform below her optimum at this event as well, but even a poor outing shouldn't diminish Rochette's reputation entering the Games, as she has plenty of that already in the bank from her world silver last year. Both the Grand Prix Final and Canadian Nationals will be events where Rochette won't have much to lose, but she will still have much to gain. An international event against world class skaters and a national event at home should be the ideal combination of competitions to get Rochette fit for Vancouver.
Akiko Suzuki (Japan)
Top Achievements: 2009 Cup of China Champion, 2009 Four Continents Championships-8th, 2008/2009 Japanese Nationals-4th, 2008 NHK Trophy silver medalist, 2008 Finlandia Trophy Champion
Pros: Suzuki has made a resilient comeback from Anorexia to become one of the top female figure skaters in Japan. 2009 Skate Canada notwithstanding, Suzuki has been a fairly consistent competitor throughout the last two seasons and has shown to be especially consistent when skating in Asia. At Cup of China, Suzuki scored the second highest free skate score of this year's Grand Prix series en route to her first career Grand Prix victory. Suzuki finished 4th at last year's Japanese Nationals, a placement deemed too low by several fans who thought that she was robbed of a podium finish because of an unfairly downgraded triple salchow in her long program. Suzuki has a full arsenal of triple jumps (besides the axel) and skates with fervent passion and speed. Suzuki generally skates her best when she is competing in or near her home country, as last year's NHK Trophy, Japanese Nationals, and this year's Cup of China have shown. Suzuki is the only skater competing at this event who actually trains in Japan, let alone Asia.
Cons: Suzuki has never been a judge's favorite, in part due to her weaker transitions and extension. Suzuki's average PCS score during the Grand Prix for her long program is the lowest among the six qualifiers, and she is prone to receiving deductions for turning onto an inside edge for her lutz. Suzuki is not an especially strong spinner, and her spirals leave much to be desired as well. Suzuki is lucky just to have qualified to the Final after a poor outing at Skate Canada, where she only landed three clean triples (one marked down by an edge call), but she survived to stay in the top five after epic meltdowns from Cynthia Phaneuf and Caroline Zhang surfaced. Even with two of her best performances, Suzuki was only able to place 4th at Cup of China during the short program phase, and her winning long program had a substandard PCS score of only 52.56. Suzuki was the lowest rank qualifier to this event, so she will fulfill the unenviable task of skating first in the short program, a start position often destined for lower marks.
Outlook: Suzuki would want nothing more than to snatch her Olympic berth in Tokyo for the Grand Prix Final. Miki Ando should be favored enough at Japanese Nationals to get a medal through PCS even if she doesn't skate well, such as what happened last year at Suzuki's expense. The same cannot necessarily be said for Suzuki, however, particularly after her poor showing at Skate Canada. Fumie Suguri may not be performing well so far this year but one absolutely shouldn't count her out: in 2005, she placed 8th at Skate Canada and went onto win Japanese Nationals under an even deeper field than what will be in store at this year's competition. Yukari Nakano at her 2008 worlds form should also have no issue finishing ahead of Suzuki and claiming an Olympic berth. Suzuki always seems to perform well at home, however, and if she can regain her magic from Cup of China she could be looking at a podium finish and an Olympic berth coming from this event. Although, without the judges on her side, Suzuki will need to take the hard way to the medals stand.
Ashley Wagner (USA)
Top Achivements: 2009 NHK Trophy bronze medalist, 2009 Rostelecom Cup silver medalist, 2007 and 2009 World Junior Bronze medalist, 2009 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-4th, 2008 World Championships qualifier, 2008 U.S. bronze medalist, 2007 Trophee Eric Bompard bronze medalist
Pros: Wagner has always been a creditable jumper; however, since changing coaches to Priscilla Hill, the 2008 U.S. bronze medalist has matured her presentation immensely and shows off that improvement this season with a dramatic short to the soundtrack from "Once Upon a Time in America" and an elegant long to "Polovtsian Dances." Wagner won the long program at last year's U.S. Nationals with a program that only contained five triples, and she could have won the overall title were it not for a faulty short program. Wagner scored personal bests for the long program and overall segment total at the recent Rostelecom Cup. The 2008 U.S. bronze medalist takes full advantage of the rule allowing 10% bonus to be awarded for jumping pass after the midway point of a long program, as she does a triple loop-double axel sequence, a triple flip-double axel sequence, and a triple lutz deep into the program. A well-rounded skater, Wagner demonstrates both excellent speed and refined positions throughout her skating.
Cons: Wagner has an egregious flutz, and she has yet to not receive an edge call on that particular element this season. Wagner's triple-triple combinations seem to have disappeared, and she doesn't look capable of adding a triple toe loop as a combination jump, as she has a tendency to toe-axel her double toes (something she had a downgrade on at the 2009 U.S. Nationals). While Wagner is able to execute difficult jumps after the halfway point of a program, her stamina goes out the door when straight line footwork is concerned. Her straight line step sequence at the conclusion of her long program is fairly lethargic and makes for a poor concluding impression of her performance. Wagner has proven very susceptible to nerves: At last year's U.S. Nationals, she was completely in the running for a U.S. title, but an error littered short program prevented any hope of that happening. Wagner was only 16th at her first World Championships in 2008, and a shaky free at the NHK Trophy prevented her from winning a championship that was entirely within her grasp.
Outlook: The first order of business for Wagner is to replace her triple lutz in the short with a triple loop. The loop has been a solid jump for her this year and would actually get her more credit than a lutz with an "e" edge call, or even an "!" call. Wagner rearranged her jump layout several times last season, and appears to be doing the same this year as well. Hopefully, she won't be changing her jump layout too much more, but there are still some potentially easy switches of jumps in her long program that could be beneficial to her. Wagner has a fairly competitive jump layout for the long already, but her flutz at the end with an "e" call is going to get her about the same credit as a clean triple toe loop, so she would be wise to make that change as well. For a podium finish here, Wagner is going to rely on other skater's mistakes because she does not possess consistent triple-triple combinations or the high program component scores given to Kim, Rochette, and Ando. However, even just skating well and improving upon her personal bests will be a tremendous confidence boost for Ashley and will give her a leg up in the tight race for the two Olympic berths when U.S. Nationals arrive. Wagner has been scored well domestically for the last two years, and a strong finish here will help her create her own destiny toward making that Olympic team.
Predictions
Gold: Yu-Na Kim (South Korea): Yes, she had one of her worst long programs ever at Skate America, but it has to be noted that every other top ladies skater has had, at the very least, a mini-meltdown in some shape or form this year. Kim has the top two overall segment totals this season and has proven to have a fairly comfortable margin for error even over her toughest adversaries.
Silver: Joannie Rochette (Canada): Rochette has the judges on her side and just needs those jumps to be the same. A couple of less than desirable skates throughout the Grand Prix should invigorate Rochette to skate with solidity here. A peaked Rochette should have no issue beating Leonova, Suzuki, or Wagner, even if they skate at their absolute best, and the Grand Prix Final has not historically been a great competition to Miki Ando, who has not looked so superior to Rochette thus far.
Bronze: Miki Ando (Japan): She never peaks for this event, but because of the huge advantage she will have on PCS over Leonova, Suzuki, and Wagner, Ando should be on the podium if she just skates decently. Competing at home and as the top ranked Japanese female could give Ando a slight boost to her marks as well, but on the flip side, Ando will be bound to feel more pressure at this competition, which could negatively impact her skating.
4th: Akiko Suzuki (Japan): She generally does well at home and can probably bounce back at least somewhat from her poor Skate Canada outing, but she simply doesn't have the polish nor the reputation behind her to give her a medal against far more seasoned skaters, unless of course she skates lights out.
5th: Alena Leonova (Russia): Her overall score from Rostelecom and NHK was higher than that of Wagner's, and Leonova did much better at her first worlds (7th) than Ashley did at hers (16th). Both will be making their debut here, but Leonova has slightly more momentum to ride off of from her silver medal at NHK.
6th: Ashley Wagner (USA): She should have an advantage on Leonova and Suzuki with PCS, but being that this is a major international event, it is possible that Wagner may succumb to pressure and not perform at her best. It is imperative for Wagner to deliver two quality skates, as she can often deliver one great program in a major competition, but not both.
That is all.
Showing posts with label Yu-Na Kim. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Yu-Na Kim. Show all posts
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Saturday, November 14, 2009
2009 Skate America Ladies SP Live Commentary
Starting Order
Warm-Up Group 1
1 Emily HUGHES USA
2 Tugba KARADEMIR TUR
3 Alexe GILLES USA
4 Elena GLEBOVA EST
5 Sarah HECKEN GER
6 Susanna POYKIO FIN
Warm-Up Group 2
7 Joshi HELGESSON SWE
8 Fumie SUGURI JPN
9 Elene GEDEVANISHVILI GEO
10 Julia SEBESTYEN HUN
11 Rachael FLATT USA
12 Yu-Na KIM KOR
5:59 CT Judges have been announced. Warm-Up Group 1 about to take ice. Gilles in pink; Glebova in green.
Gilles joking with Tom Z.
6:00 Competitors take ice.
Emily Hughes gets big ovation; one noticeably louder than compatriot Alexe Gilles.
Hughes is in black dress.
Gilles-clean 2A
Glebova-good 3T; Tara Lipinski commentating and mentions Glebova struggling in practice.
Hecken needs greater than a 128 total score to make Olympic team for Germany.
Poykio in blue dress with rhinestones.
Hecken-Clean 3S
6:07 Warm-up concluded.
Emily Hughes (USA)
1Z+2T-big mistake; very slow entrance
3F-landed well but likely UR
2A-good height and controlled landing
Spiral-good height of the free leg but leg is slightly bent. Back is too dropped.
Great layback to catch-foot layback to Bielmann
Good straight line step sequence
Decent final spin; a tad slow on the last few revolutions
Good expression and speed
TES: 21.56
PCS: 23.72
Total: 45.32
Tugba Karademir (Turkey)
2F+2T-didn't get down into ice on takeoff and big toe-axel on 2T
3S-OK; possible UR
Turned-in layback position
Spiral Sequence-nice leg line
2A-good
Good spin combo
Footwork a bit simplistic
Last spin combo-well centered but a tad slow
FYI: Lipinski's commentary is awful.
TES: 27.50
PCS: 21.92
Total: 49.42
Rank: 1
Alexe Gilles (USA)
3Z+1T-possible UR on 3Z; double footed first jump
1F-weight off in air
2A-nice; good transition preceding it
Good layback but slow and poorly extended Bielmann
Nice spiral
Flying sit spin-not much amplitude; leg in sit spin not extended fully
Footwork starts off well but gets slower
Very elegant program but not nearly as strong as her SP from TEB.
TES: 24.04
PCS: 22.52
Total: 46.56
Rank: 2
Elena Glebova (Estonia)
3S-good but intended 3F
Spiral-relatively poor extension
3T+3T-very nice
Sit spin/pancake variation-well centered but a tad slow
Footwork-good in places but bland overall
2A-low but landed
Completely missed her flying sit
Decent final spins
Relatively bland program; she skated to a strong piece of music of which she had trouble living up to in her skating. I enjoyed her "Songs My Mother Taught Me" SP from last year more. Good skate technically aside from unusual spin error.
TES: 28.80
PCS: 23.48
Total: 52.28
Rank: 1
Sarah Hecken (Germany)
2T-intended 3T+3T but slow entrance; legs loose in air; forward on landing of 2T and didn't do combo
3S-nice
2A-nice
Slow spin
Very poor spiral
Decent catchfoot layback
Footwork-needs more speed; moves not finished; decent expression
Camel extension poor
Facial expression is decent but other than that her movements are very unpolished and slow. First jumping pass was off but the second and third were very clean.
TES: 24.10
PCS: 19.76
Total: 43.86
Rank: 5
Susanna Poykio (Finland)
3Z(very slow; leaning in the air, hand down and likely UR)+2T-landed
2F-fall out
Turned-in layback position
2A-good
Spiral-dropped back; relatively poor free leg extension
Footwork slow
Finished after music
One of the worst skates I can recall seeing from her. Extremely bland, slow program
TES: 22.80
PCS: 23.92
Total: 46.72
Rank: 3
Warm-Up Group 2 on ice. Kim from same dress as TEB. Suguri from same dress from COC. Lipinski mentions Suguri having issues in practice.
Flatt in pink (I believe same one as COC)
Kim-Good 3F
Kim-Another good 3F.
Kim-good 3Z+3T
Flatt-Good but likely UR 3F+3T.
Warm-up concluded.
Joshi Helgesson (Sweden)
Nice expression at start
3T-landed well
3Z+2T-good height; landed; slight loss of speed coming out of 3Z
2A-good; spiral coming out
Spiral sequence-extension poor
Footwork a bit slow, lots of twizzle-esque movements
Turned-in layback position
Weak Bielmann
Very quirky presentation and a clean program; really needs to work on both polishing all of her positions and improving her transitions from element to element
TES: 29.48
PCS: 21.84
Total: 51.32
Rank: 2
Fumie Suguri (Japan)
3Z(slightly flutzed; free leg very crossed over on landing; possible UR)+2T-landed
3F-good control and height; slight cheat
Good speed in spin but positions are weak
Spiral extension relatively poor
2A-good
Deathdrop-traveled slightly; sit spin could be lower
Footwork a bit slow; good expression
Finished slightly after music
Better attention to the music and the choreography than she has done in several previous programs. This program is quite a bit better than her LP.
TES: 29.28
PCS: 26.76
Total: 56.04
Rank: 1
3F apparently got downgraded
Elene Gedevanishvilli (Georgia)
2Z-legs too loose upon propeling up into the air
3T(forward)+2T-landed
Nice spiral extension
Spiral immediately into 2A-slightly forward but controlled well
Good combo spin
Good use of edges in footwork; not as expressive as she is capable of
Nice sit spin/pancake variation
Not as much spark as she is capable; a good program overall but the technical mistakes seem to diminish her interest in the performance
TES: 27.90
PCS: 24.28
Total: 52.18
Rank: 3
Julia Sebestyen (Hungary)
3Z+2T-great height and control
3F-good height; possible slight cheat
Good donut spin
Spiral extension relatively poor
2A-good
Traveling in layback; poor position; slow
Footwork-decent energy; a bit slow
Lacks flexibility and polish but has great height on her jumps and good speed. Decent energy.
TES: 32.10
PCS: 26.44
Total: 58.54
Rank: 1
Rachael Flatt (USA)
3F+3T(leaning to the right; fall; possible slight UR)
3Z-leaning to the side; didn't hold landing very long but clean
Spiral sequence-adequate
Good layback; a tad slow
2A-low but landed
Great energy in footwork
Good speed in final spin
Actually a very nice program aside from the opening fall. Much improved musicality and personality from COC.
TES: 33.40
PCS: 26.40
Ded: -1.00
Total: 55.80
Rank: 1
Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
3Z+3T-superb
3F-very good
Layback through to Bielmann-good speed; positions not great but improved
Spiral-good speed; position not great but improved
2A-good
Good deathdrop to sit spin
Footwork-very good expression; a tad slow in places
Good final spin
Excellent expression and speed; she really got into the character of the program even more so than at TEB. Fabulous.
TES: 44.00
PCS: 32.28
Total: 76.28 (New World Record!!!)
Rank: 1
Standings Entering LP:
1 Yu-Na KIM KOR 76.28 1
2 Rachael FLATT USA 58.80 2
3 Julia SEBESTYEN HUN 58.54 3
4 Fumie SUGURI JPN 56.04 4
5 Elena GLEBOVA EST 52.28 5
6 Elene GEDEVANISHVILI GEO 52.18 6
7 Joshi HELGESSON SWE 51.32 7
8 Tugba KARADEMIR TUR49.42 8
9 Susanna PÖYKIÖ FIN 46.72 9
10 Alexe GILLES USA 46.56 10
11 Emily HUGHES USA 45.32 11
12 Sarah HECKEN GER 43.86 12
Commentary of men's free to start in 25 minutes.
Warm-Up Group 1
1 Emily HUGHES USA
2 Tugba KARADEMIR TUR
3 Alexe GILLES USA
4 Elena GLEBOVA EST
5 Sarah HECKEN GER
6 Susanna POYKIO FIN
Warm-Up Group 2
7 Joshi HELGESSON SWE
8 Fumie SUGURI JPN
9 Elene GEDEVANISHVILI GEO
10 Julia SEBESTYEN HUN
11 Rachael FLATT USA
12 Yu-Na KIM KOR
5:59 CT Judges have been announced. Warm-Up Group 1 about to take ice. Gilles in pink; Glebova in green.
Gilles joking with Tom Z.
6:00 Competitors take ice.
Emily Hughes gets big ovation; one noticeably louder than compatriot Alexe Gilles.
Hughes is in black dress.
Gilles-clean 2A
Glebova-good 3T; Tara Lipinski commentating and mentions Glebova struggling in practice.
Hecken needs greater than a 128 total score to make Olympic team for Germany.
Poykio in blue dress with rhinestones.
Hecken-Clean 3S
6:07 Warm-up concluded.
Emily Hughes (USA)
1Z+2T-big mistake; very slow entrance
3F-landed well but likely UR
2A-good height and controlled landing
Spiral-good height of the free leg but leg is slightly bent. Back is too dropped.
Great layback to catch-foot layback to Bielmann
Good straight line step sequence
Decent final spin; a tad slow on the last few revolutions
Good expression and speed
TES: 21.56
PCS: 23.72
Total: 45.32
Tugba Karademir (Turkey)
2F+2T-didn't get down into ice on takeoff and big toe-axel on 2T
3S-OK; possible UR
Turned-in layback position
Spiral Sequence-nice leg line
2A-good
Good spin combo
Footwork a bit simplistic
Last spin combo-well centered but a tad slow
FYI: Lipinski's commentary is awful.
TES: 27.50
PCS: 21.92
Total: 49.42
Rank: 1
Alexe Gilles (USA)
3Z+1T-possible UR on 3Z; double footed first jump
1F-weight off in air
2A-nice; good transition preceding it
Good layback but slow and poorly extended Bielmann
Nice spiral
Flying sit spin-not much amplitude; leg in sit spin not extended fully
Footwork starts off well but gets slower
Very elegant program but not nearly as strong as her SP from TEB.
TES: 24.04
PCS: 22.52
Total: 46.56
Rank: 2
Elena Glebova (Estonia)
3S-good but intended 3F
Spiral-relatively poor extension
3T+3T-very nice
Sit spin/pancake variation-well centered but a tad slow
Footwork-good in places but bland overall
2A-low but landed
Completely missed her flying sit
Decent final spins
Relatively bland program; she skated to a strong piece of music of which she had trouble living up to in her skating. I enjoyed her "Songs My Mother Taught Me" SP from last year more. Good skate technically aside from unusual spin error.
TES: 28.80
PCS: 23.48
Total: 52.28
Rank: 1
Sarah Hecken (Germany)
2T-intended 3T+3T but slow entrance; legs loose in air; forward on landing of 2T and didn't do combo
3S-nice
2A-nice
Slow spin
Very poor spiral
Decent catchfoot layback
Footwork-needs more speed; moves not finished; decent expression
Camel extension poor
Facial expression is decent but other than that her movements are very unpolished and slow. First jumping pass was off but the second and third were very clean.
TES: 24.10
PCS: 19.76
Total: 43.86
Rank: 5
Susanna Poykio (Finland)
3Z(very slow; leaning in the air, hand down and likely UR)+2T-landed
2F-fall out
Turned-in layback position
2A-good
Spiral-dropped back; relatively poor free leg extension
Footwork slow
Finished after music
One of the worst skates I can recall seeing from her. Extremely bland, slow program
TES: 22.80
PCS: 23.92
Total: 46.72
Rank: 3
Warm-Up Group 2 on ice. Kim from same dress as TEB. Suguri from same dress from COC. Lipinski mentions Suguri having issues in practice.
Flatt in pink (I believe same one as COC)
Kim-Good 3F
Kim-Another good 3F.
Kim-good 3Z+3T
Flatt-Good but likely UR 3F+3T.
Warm-up concluded.
Joshi Helgesson (Sweden)
Nice expression at start
3T-landed well
3Z+2T-good height; landed; slight loss of speed coming out of 3Z
2A-good; spiral coming out
Spiral sequence-extension poor
Footwork a bit slow, lots of twizzle-esque movements
Turned-in layback position
Weak Bielmann
Very quirky presentation and a clean program; really needs to work on both polishing all of her positions and improving her transitions from element to element
TES: 29.48
PCS: 21.84
Total: 51.32
Rank: 2
Fumie Suguri (Japan)
3Z(slightly flutzed; free leg very crossed over on landing; possible UR)+2T-landed
3F-good control and height; slight cheat
Good speed in spin but positions are weak
Spiral extension relatively poor
2A-good
Deathdrop-traveled slightly; sit spin could be lower
Footwork a bit slow; good expression
Finished slightly after music
Better attention to the music and the choreography than she has done in several previous programs. This program is quite a bit better than her LP.
TES: 29.28
PCS: 26.76
Total: 56.04
Rank: 1
3F apparently got downgraded
Elene Gedevanishvilli (Georgia)
2Z-legs too loose upon propeling up into the air
3T(forward)+2T-landed
Nice spiral extension
Spiral immediately into 2A-slightly forward but controlled well
Good combo spin
Good use of edges in footwork; not as expressive as she is capable of
Nice sit spin/pancake variation
Not as much spark as she is capable; a good program overall but the technical mistakes seem to diminish her interest in the performance
TES: 27.90
PCS: 24.28
Total: 52.18
Rank: 3
Julia Sebestyen (Hungary)
3Z+2T-great height and control
3F-good height; possible slight cheat
Good donut spin
Spiral extension relatively poor
2A-good
Traveling in layback; poor position; slow
Footwork-decent energy; a bit slow
Lacks flexibility and polish but has great height on her jumps and good speed. Decent energy.
TES: 32.10
PCS: 26.44
Total: 58.54
Rank: 1
Rachael Flatt (USA)
3F+3T(leaning to the right; fall; possible slight UR)
3Z-leaning to the side; didn't hold landing very long but clean
Spiral sequence-adequate
Good layback; a tad slow
2A-low but landed
Great energy in footwork
Good speed in final spin
Actually a very nice program aside from the opening fall. Much improved musicality and personality from COC.
TES: 33.40
PCS: 26.40
Ded: -1.00
Total: 55.80
Rank: 1
Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
3Z+3T-superb
3F-very good
Layback through to Bielmann-good speed; positions not great but improved
Spiral-good speed; position not great but improved
2A-good
Good deathdrop to sit spin
Footwork-very good expression; a tad slow in places
Good final spin
Excellent expression and speed; she really got into the character of the program even more so than at TEB. Fabulous.
TES: 44.00
PCS: 32.28
Total: 76.28 (New World Record!!!)
Rank: 1
Standings Entering LP:
1 Yu-Na KIM KOR 76.28 1
2 Rachael FLATT USA 58.80 2
3 Julia SEBESTYEN HUN 58.54 3
4 Fumie SUGURI JPN 56.04 4
5 Elena GLEBOVA EST 52.28 5
6 Elene GEDEVANISHVILI GEO 52.18 6
7 Joshi HELGESSON SWE 51.32 7
8 Tugba KARADEMIR TUR49.42 8
9 Susanna PÖYKIÖ FIN 46.72 9
10 Alexe GILLES USA 46.56 10
11 Emily HUGHES USA 45.32 11
12 Sarah HECKEN GER 43.86 12
Commentary of men's free to start in 25 minutes.
Friday, October 16, 2009
The Queen Reigns
Yu-Na debuted her lovely, entertaining James Bond short program today at the 2009 Trophee Eric Bompard, a competition which she now leads by over 16 points. The program is an excellent vehicle for her to develop throughout the season, and she appears to be extremely fit. My only criticism is in the step sequence; it starts off with all guns blazing, but the middle of it (2:50-2:54) slows down and loses the intensity that was so strong initially. However, I'm confident that this program will be even better in her later events. When comparing her "Dance Macabre" short program from Skate America to Worlds last year, one can see that every movement Kim does is stronger and richer at the latter event.
ETA: Also note that there are some new polls toward below my blog archive on the right side of the page.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
TEB Preview-Ladies
Ladies
Mao Asada (Japan)
The Olympic season has finally arrived for the 19-year-old Japanese superstar, who will aim to live up to the expectations of a proud nation hoping that the 2008 world champion will dethrone her top rival, Yu-Na Kim, for the 2010 Olympic gold medal. Asada was formerly under the tutelage of Rafael Artunian, who led her to the 2007 world silver medal and two Japanese national championships. However, after Asada's 2007 nationals win, the Japanese Skating Federation pulled her from Artunian and sent her to the Four Continents and World Championships without a permanent coach. Nevertheless, she went on to win both competitions. The JSF later paired Asada with legendary Russian coach Tatiana Tarasova, who has taken Asada away from the more lyrical style of her youth to a much more dramatic presentation, something many fans have voiced their disapproval over. Asada's time with Tarasova has been hot and cold thus far, with high points that include her win (defeating Yu-Na Kim in her come country) at the 2008 Grand Prix Final, and becoming the second lady to break 200 points at the 2009 World Team Trophy. However, Asada was left off the podium in Los Angeles, despite not skating poorly, and received her lowest long program score since 2006 at the recent Japan Open.
Asada's attempts to land two triple axels in her long program are admirable, but the great risk involved often proves to be much more of a detriment than a reward. She is bound to pop, under rotate, or fall on one of them (exceptions being 2005 Japanese Nationals and 2008 Grand Prix Final), and more often than not, the mistake comes on the second attempt. It was also perplexing when, at the Japan Open, Asada missed her inconsistent triple salchow, trying that jump in favor of her consistently secure triple loop. Practice videos of Asada's jumps aired just prior to the Japan Open showed her to be in fine condition, but her jumps at the Japan Open were labored and were vacant of their usual spring. However, her artistry in her "Bells of Moscow" long program showed a marked improvement from last year's long to "Masquerade Waltz." Asada performed poorly at this event last year, which was her first event of the 2008/2009 season, and cannot afford to do the same this season with a sinificantly deeper field competing. However, it is worth noting that Asada's second competition of the season has historically been significantly stronger than her first.
Elene Gedevanishvili (Georgia)
The Georgian firecracker is wildly talented and wildly inconsistent, having finished 10th at this year's worlds, just after failing to qualify for the free skate at the 2009 Europeans. Gedevanishvili has competed at an Olympics once before, in 2006, where she shockingly qualified to the final group for the free skate and ended up placing 10th. Currently training under 1982 world champion Elaine Zayak in New Jersey, Gedevanishvili is a spunky skater with a solid triple lutz and triple toe+triple toe combination. The 19-year-old Tbilisi native has already competed once since last year's worlds, at the 2009 Moran Memorial, where she finished ahead of Ashley Wagner in the free skate, but behind behind her in the short program and overall. Gedevanishvili has a solid combination of athleticism, flexibility, and personality, but will need to gain consistency and refine her posture and transitions between elements if she is to stick around and skate onto the podium at a future World Championships or Olympic Games. Gedevanishvili's performances in Los Angeles appeared to significantly increase her confidence level, and a strong placement in Paris (preferably in the top five) would allow the judges to have more faith in Gedevanishvili's potentially strong but divergent skating.
Alexe Gilles (USA)
Gilles is one of the tallest ladies figure skaters to have ever made it to the competitive ranks domestically and internationally, standing at 5'7''. This added height allows Gilles to have jumps that are nothing short of breathtaking when landed, particularly her triple lutz, but it also impedes her consistency. Gilles competed at the Colorado Championships this summer, where she defeated two-time U.S. silver medalist Rachael Flatt in the short, but fell behind her in the long program and overall. The bronze medalist from last year's Junior Grand Prix Final and 9th place finisher from the 2009 U.S. Championships, Gilles has the opportunity for this to be somewhat of a breakthrough season, but only somewhat, because it's unlikely she will make the Olympic team. She was granted her first senior Grand Prix assignment, being this competition, in the spring and was eventually added to the Skate America roster when Michelle Kwan announced her decision not to return to competitive skating. A solid finish here will be a tall order for Gilles, as she is competing against seven creditable skaters and five especially formidable ladies (Asada, Kim, Kostner, Nakano, and Zhang). Regardless of placement, this competition will be of tremendous service to Gilles's development, and it will give her an idea of how she stacks up with some of the top female figure skaters in the world.
Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
The pride of South Korea will take to the ice for the first time since her victory at the 2009 World Championships, where she won her first world title by an astounding 16.42 points, breaking the then existing world record by over eight marks. Kim has been one of the few skaters to have avoided summer competitions, and comes to Paris to debut her new short program to themes from "James Bond" and her long program to Gershwin's "Piano Concerto in F." Orser lauded Kim's new programs in an Icenetwork article back in July; however, Kim critiqued them in a more staid manner in a recent interview, commenting "Though I am under the apprehension that both programs of this season are less gorgeous than those of last season, I will prepare them well and do my best as I have done before."
Although Kim is perhaps not as talented a skater technically speaking as Asada, she is able to work the code of points in her favor more so than her top rival. An example of this is that receives nearly unanimous level fours for her non-jump elements, even while some of her spin and spiral postitions don't achieve the prettiest shapes. The code of points also aids her in the fact that she can switch her problematic triple loop with an easier, quality double axel, which doesn't end up costing her much at all. Kim's speed, detailed choreography, and committed expression enabled her to receive the highest program component marks of every phase of every competition she competed in last season. Kim should continue to bank on those high program component marks, but it is unlikely that one will see Kim score jaw-droppingly high artistic marks, like the 68.40 PCS score she received for her long program at 2009 worlds, especially if she is not to skate a clean short program and have a commanding lead after that phase.
One concept Kim must continue to be mindful about to ensure herself success in Vancouver is to train well, but not overtrain and risk serious injury. Kim's back was a huge source of pain for her prior to the 2007 and 2008 World Championships, both competitions of which she was capable of winning, but did not. Kim peaked herself at exactly the right time last season, but it could be difficult to achieve that masterful pacing again, considering all of the pressure from the people of South Korea and Kim's constant drive to push to envelope further (notice how she claimed that she now aims for 215 points instead of just 200 in the article linked earlier in this commentary). Kim is generally strong, albeit unspectacular, at her first event. While this is precisely how she should desire to perform early in the season, such a performance is not always indicative of the culmination of her year, as was the case with her 2007/2008 season.
Kiira Korpi (Finland)
Korpi missed the Grand Prix portion of the season last year due to injury, but recovered in time to defeat Laura Lepisto at the 2009 Finnish Championships to win her first Finnish senior national title. However, because the criteria for selecting the world team was largely based on the results of the 2009 European Championships, Korpi was not chosen to compete in Los Angeles because of her 5th place finish at that event - the lowest placement of the three Finnish women (Korpi, Lepisto, Susanna Poykio) competing there. Korpi has already gotten her feet wet this season, competing at the Nebelhorn Trophy and Finlandia Trophy, where she placed 2nd and 3rd, respectively. It seems likely that Laura Lepisto will secure one of the two berths available for the Finnish women intending to compete at the 2010 Olympic Games, which means that Korpi will need to fend off current European bronze medalist Susanna Poykio for the second spot. This should prove to be an interesting battle, as both skaters are very comparable in their overall consistency and potential. Poykio may have had the upper hand when it came to last year's Europeans, where Korpi (in the video shown above) took a devastating fall into the boards in her long program, but Poykio didn't exactly show the world that she was of the best use to the Finnish team in Los Angeles with 13th place finish, a placement even lower than Carolina Kostner and her epic long program meltdown. Korpi's competitions in the early part of the season are great opportunities for building confidence, but shouldn't have much impact on whether she is named to the Olympic team or not. Peaking as close to the Olympics as possible will be of the utmost importance for Korpi to return to a second Olympic Games, and to improve on her 16th place finish from 2006.
Carolina Kostner (Italy)
As dream of a city Los Angeles was for Yu-Na Kim, it was a living nightmare for Carolina Kostner. Entering the long program in 5th place, Kostner appeared rattled by Kim's thunderous ovation, as the 22-year-old Italian went on to skate her worst long program in memory, one which contained zero clean triple jumps. The performance dropped Kostner to 12th, understandably prompting her to make a coaching change from Michael Huth to Frank Carroll, who is currently coaching Evan Lysacek and Mirai Nagasu also. Kostner could be the ultimate Olympic dark horse if she is somehow able to gain consistency, confidence, and competitive fire by Vancouver.
Kostner skates with blinding speed, has creditable height on her triples, and is armed with a strong sense of musicality, which, coupled with strong poltical favor from Italian ISU head Ottavio Cinquanta, make it foolish for one to count her out of the medal picture in Vancouver. A recent training video from an Italian television network shows Kostner to have made several changes to her skating in the short time she has had with Frank Carroll, including having more fluid entrances to her flip and loop, and adding the triple toe as a solo jump. She did not show a triple flip+triple toe combination, and given her recent troubles with that combination (having only one out 10 successful triple+triple combination attempts last season), Kostner may be going back to an easier triple flip+double toe combination and putting the triple toe in place of her double axel solo jump in the long program.
Kostner has been wise to let both of her programs be of a more classical genre this season, as classical programs, such as her 2007 Canon short program, aptly suit her artistry. Kostner will debut her short program to Tchaikovsky's "Chopin Nocturne and Violin Concerto" and her long program to Bach's "Air on a G String" and Vivaldi's "Cello Concerto" in Paris. If recent history is any indication, Kostner will not be in strong form here, as her opening performances during several previous seasons have been of particular sloppiness. Little is known of whether Kostner will be able to come back from her Los Angeles catastrophe and skate of quality worthy of making the Olympic podium, but one will be able to start finding out after this weekend. Kostner has many opportunities in her favor to make the Olympic podium; all she has to do is trust herself and take them.
Yukari Nakano (Japan)
Nakano is generally strong early in the season, but was not so at the recent Japan Open, scoring below 100 points with a technically and choreographically fireless long program to "The Firebird." Her debut of her new long program was of particular disappointment to many of Nakano's fans, as she has enhanced her style over the past several seasons, and showed an especially mature presentation in her long program to the ballet score of "Giselle" last season. Nakano has had an impressive career, but one that has had many unerasable disappointments, which include her falling short of an Olympic team that she probably should have been on in 2006 (instead of Miki Ando who finished 15th in Turino), and missing a world championship medal in 2008 in a controversial result. Most recently, Nakano led the field after the short program at the Japanese nationals in December 2008, but ended up skating one of her weakest long programs in memory, dropping to 5th place and being left off of the world championship team.
Nakano has several lovely aspects to her skating, all of which are marred by her greatest trademark and weakness, her leg wrap. Skaters typically cross their legs tightly in the air for a jump, but for whatever peculiar reason, Nakano developed a technique where her left leg crosses over her right thigh, thus creating a distracting line and providing an impediment to the rotation speed of her jumps. She is immune from using that technique on her salchow jump and also on her triple axel, a jump she has not landed cleanly in well over a year.
As far as placements are concerned for this competition, it is worth noting that Nakano improved very quickly at the beginning of last season, when she performed poorly at a minor competition in Japan before going on to skate strongly and place second at Skate America. Nakano was also strong at her opening Grand Prix event in 2007, Skate Canada, and thus could be in for a good competition here despite her poor outing in Japan just weeks ago.
Caroline Zhang (USA)
Zhang will be returning to competition after a raucous off-season, which included two coaching changes (one to Charlene Wong and one back to her original coach, Mingzhu Li), a torn meniscus, and a third place finish (behind Rachael Flatt and Mirai Nagasu) at the Golden West competition last month. Zhang had a bittersweet 2008/2009 season, missing the world championship team while going on to prove in nearly every way possible, whether it be Alissa Czisny's short program meltdown in Los Angeles, Zhang's fourth place finish against a deep field at the Four Continents Championships, or Zhang attaining the top technical score in her free skate at the World Team Trophy, that she deserved to compete in Los Angeles.
Zhang has certain aspects to her skating that are absolutely spellbinding, and other aspects that earn her a plethora of scornful remarks from observers. Zhang can bend her body limitlessly, but skates slower than Carolina Kostner does in slow motion and has an extremely awkward technique on her flip and lutzes, where she twists her hips and kicks her leg up to the ceiling, a technique dubbed the "mule kick" by critics. The main issue with Zhang is that she has been said to have an extremely difficult time breaking out of her confort zone, which is certainly an evident reality when considering the lack of improvement in many aspects of her skating over the past few seasons in terms of speed, transitions, the mule kick, and presentation. Zhang is notorious for flutzing, but was credited with a clean lutz at the Golden West competition. However, she received an "!" call for her flip at that competition, which was also a call she received at this year's U.S. nationals.
Zhang was far from her optimum at her first competition last season, Skate Canada, which seemed to play a factor in how she was scored at nationals relative to Alissa Czisny, who outscored Zhang in the long program despite only landing three triples to Zhang's six. Zhang seems to be marked more favorably internationally than she is domestically, an oddity which she would like to reverse for the time being to earn an Olympic berth. As nationals results are frequently based off of Grand Prix results when it comes to someone being favored on the second mark, two quality performances are necessary for Zhang in Paris.
Predicted Standings-Ladies
Gold: Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
Silver: Mao Asada (Japan)
Bronze: Yukari Nakano (Japan)
4th: Carolina Kostner (Italy)
5th: Caroline Zhang (USA)
6th: Elene Gedevanishvili (Georgia)
That is all.
Mao Asada (Japan)
The Olympic season has finally arrived for the 19-year-old Japanese superstar, who will aim to live up to the expectations of a proud nation hoping that the 2008 world champion will dethrone her top rival, Yu-Na Kim, for the 2010 Olympic gold medal. Asada was formerly under the tutelage of Rafael Artunian, who led her to the 2007 world silver medal and two Japanese national championships. However, after Asada's 2007 nationals win, the Japanese Skating Federation pulled her from Artunian and sent her to the Four Continents and World Championships without a permanent coach. Nevertheless, she went on to win both competitions. The JSF later paired Asada with legendary Russian coach Tatiana Tarasova, who has taken Asada away from the more lyrical style of her youth to a much more dramatic presentation, something many fans have voiced their disapproval over. Asada's time with Tarasova has been hot and cold thus far, with high points that include her win (defeating Yu-Na Kim in her come country) at the 2008 Grand Prix Final, and becoming the second lady to break 200 points at the 2009 World Team Trophy. However, Asada was left off the podium in Los Angeles, despite not skating poorly, and received her lowest long program score since 2006 at the recent Japan Open.
Asada's attempts to land two triple axels in her long program are admirable, but the great risk involved often proves to be much more of a detriment than a reward. She is bound to pop, under rotate, or fall on one of them (exceptions being 2005 Japanese Nationals and 2008 Grand Prix Final), and more often than not, the mistake comes on the second attempt. It was also perplexing when, at the Japan Open, Asada missed her inconsistent triple salchow, trying that jump in favor of her consistently secure triple loop. Practice videos of Asada's jumps aired just prior to the Japan Open showed her to be in fine condition, but her jumps at the Japan Open were labored and were vacant of their usual spring. However, her artistry in her "Bells of Moscow" long program showed a marked improvement from last year's long to "Masquerade Waltz." Asada performed poorly at this event last year, which was her first event of the 2008/2009 season, and cannot afford to do the same this season with a sinificantly deeper field competing. However, it is worth noting that Asada's second competition of the season has historically been significantly stronger than her first.
Elene Gedevanishvili (Georgia)
The Georgian firecracker is wildly talented and wildly inconsistent, having finished 10th at this year's worlds, just after failing to qualify for the free skate at the 2009 Europeans. Gedevanishvili has competed at an Olympics once before, in 2006, where she shockingly qualified to the final group for the free skate and ended up placing 10th. Currently training under 1982 world champion Elaine Zayak in New Jersey, Gedevanishvili is a spunky skater with a solid triple lutz and triple toe+triple toe combination. The 19-year-old Tbilisi native has already competed once since last year's worlds, at the 2009 Moran Memorial, where she finished ahead of Ashley Wagner in the free skate, but behind behind her in the short program and overall. Gedevanishvili has a solid combination of athleticism, flexibility, and personality, but will need to gain consistency and refine her posture and transitions between elements if she is to stick around and skate onto the podium at a future World Championships or Olympic Games. Gedevanishvili's performances in Los Angeles appeared to significantly increase her confidence level, and a strong placement in Paris (preferably in the top five) would allow the judges to have more faith in Gedevanishvili's potentially strong but divergent skating.
Alexe Gilles (USA)
Gilles is one of the tallest ladies figure skaters to have ever made it to the competitive ranks domestically and internationally, standing at 5'7''. This added height allows Gilles to have jumps that are nothing short of breathtaking when landed, particularly her triple lutz, but it also impedes her consistency. Gilles competed at the Colorado Championships this summer, where she defeated two-time U.S. silver medalist Rachael Flatt in the short, but fell behind her in the long program and overall. The bronze medalist from last year's Junior Grand Prix Final and 9th place finisher from the 2009 U.S. Championships, Gilles has the opportunity for this to be somewhat of a breakthrough season, but only somewhat, because it's unlikely she will make the Olympic team. She was granted her first senior Grand Prix assignment, being this competition, in the spring and was eventually added to the Skate America roster when Michelle Kwan announced her decision not to return to competitive skating. A solid finish here will be a tall order for Gilles, as she is competing against seven creditable skaters and five especially formidable ladies (Asada, Kim, Kostner, Nakano, and Zhang). Regardless of placement, this competition will be of tremendous service to Gilles's development, and it will give her an idea of how she stacks up with some of the top female figure skaters in the world.
Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
The pride of South Korea will take to the ice for the first time since her victory at the 2009 World Championships, where she won her first world title by an astounding 16.42 points, breaking the then existing world record by over eight marks. Kim has been one of the few skaters to have avoided summer competitions, and comes to Paris to debut her new short program to themes from "James Bond" and her long program to Gershwin's "Piano Concerto in F." Orser lauded Kim's new programs in an Icenetwork article back in July; however, Kim critiqued them in a more staid manner in a recent interview, commenting "Though I am under the apprehension that both programs of this season are less gorgeous than those of last season, I will prepare them well and do my best as I have done before."
Although Kim is perhaps not as talented a skater technically speaking as Asada, she is able to work the code of points in her favor more so than her top rival. An example of this is that receives nearly unanimous level fours for her non-jump elements, even while some of her spin and spiral postitions don't achieve the prettiest shapes. The code of points also aids her in the fact that she can switch her problematic triple loop with an easier, quality double axel, which doesn't end up costing her much at all. Kim's speed, detailed choreography, and committed expression enabled her to receive the highest program component marks of every phase of every competition she competed in last season. Kim should continue to bank on those high program component marks, but it is unlikely that one will see Kim score jaw-droppingly high artistic marks, like the 68.40 PCS score she received for her long program at 2009 worlds, especially if she is not to skate a clean short program and have a commanding lead after that phase.
One concept Kim must continue to be mindful about to ensure herself success in Vancouver is to train well, but not overtrain and risk serious injury. Kim's back was a huge source of pain for her prior to the 2007 and 2008 World Championships, both competitions of which she was capable of winning, but did not. Kim peaked herself at exactly the right time last season, but it could be difficult to achieve that masterful pacing again, considering all of the pressure from the people of South Korea and Kim's constant drive to push to envelope further (notice how she claimed that she now aims for 215 points instead of just 200 in the article linked earlier in this commentary). Kim is generally strong, albeit unspectacular, at her first event. While this is precisely how she should desire to perform early in the season, such a performance is not always indicative of the culmination of her year, as was the case with her 2007/2008 season.
Kiira Korpi (Finland)
Korpi missed the Grand Prix portion of the season last year due to injury, but recovered in time to defeat Laura Lepisto at the 2009 Finnish Championships to win her first Finnish senior national title. However, because the criteria for selecting the world team was largely based on the results of the 2009 European Championships, Korpi was not chosen to compete in Los Angeles because of her 5th place finish at that event - the lowest placement of the three Finnish women (Korpi, Lepisto, Susanna Poykio) competing there. Korpi has already gotten her feet wet this season, competing at the Nebelhorn Trophy and Finlandia Trophy, where she placed 2nd and 3rd, respectively. It seems likely that Laura Lepisto will secure one of the two berths available for the Finnish women intending to compete at the 2010 Olympic Games, which means that Korpi will need to fend off current European bronze medalist Susanna Poykio for the second spot. This should prove to be an interesting battle, as both skaters are very comparable in their overall consistency and potential. Poykio may have had the upper hand when it came to last year's Europeans, where Korpi (in the video shown above) took a devastating fall into the boards in her long program, but Poykio didn't exactly show the world that she was of the best use to the Finnish team in Los Angeles with 13th place finish, a placement even lower than Carolina Kostner and her epic long program meltdown. Korpi's competitions in the early part of the season are great opportunities for building confidence, but shouldn't have much impact on whether she is named to the Olympic team or not. Peaking as close to the Olympics as possible will be of the utmost importance for Korpi to return to a second Olympic Games, and to improve on her 16th place finish from 2006.
Carolina Kostner (Italy)
As dream of a city Los Angeles was for Yu-Na Kim, it was a living nightmare for Carolina Kostner. Entering the long program in 5th place, Kostner appeared rattled by Kim's thunderous ovation, as the 22-year-old Italian went on to skate her worst long program in memory, one which contained zero clean triple jumps. The performance dropped Kostner to 12th, understandably prompting her to make a coaching change from Michael Huth to Frank Carroll, who is currently coaching Evan Lysacek and Mirai Nagasu also. Kostner could be the ultimate Olympic dark horse if she is somehow able to gain consistency, confidence, and competitive fire by Vancouver.
Kostner skates with blinding speed, has creditable height on her triples, and is armed with a strong sense of musicality, which, coupled with strong poltical favor from Italian ISU head Ottavio Cinquanta, make it foolish for one to count her out of the medal picture in Vancouver. A recent training video from an Italian television network shows Kostner to have made several changes to her skating in the short time she has had with Frank Carroll, including having more fluid entrances to her flip and loop, and adding the triple toe as a solo jump. She did not show a triple flip+triple toe combination, and given her recent troubles with that combination (having only one out 10 successful triple+triple combination attempts last season), Kostner may be going back to an easier triple flip+double toe combination and putting the triple toe in place of her double axel solo jump in the long program.
Kostner has been wise to let both of her programs be of a more classical genre this season, as classical programs, such as her 2007 Canon short program, aptly suit her artistry. Kostner will debut her short program to Tchaikovsky's "Chopin Nocturne and Violin Concerto" and her long program to Bach's "Air on a G String" and Vivaldi's "Cello Concerto" in Paris. If recent history is any indication, Kostner will not be in strong form here, as her opening performances during several previous seasons have been of particular sloppiness. Little is known of whether Kostner will be able to come back from her Los Angeles catastrophe and skate of quality worthy of making the Olympic podium, but one will be able to start finding out after this weekend. Kostner has many opportunities in her favor to make the Olympic podium; all she has to do is trust herself and take them.
Yukari Nakano (Japan)
Nakano is generally strong early in the season, but was not so at the recent Japan Open, scoring below 100 points with a technically and choreographically fireless long program to "The Firebird." Her debut of her new long program was of particular disappointment to many of Nakano's fans, as she has enhanced her style over the past several seasons, and showed an especially mature presentation in her long program to the ballet score of "Giselle" last season. Nakano has had an impressive career, but one that has had many unerasable disappointments, which include her falling short of an Olympic team that she probably should have been on in 2006 (instead of Miki Ando who finished 15th in Turino), and missing a world championship medal in 2008 in a controversial result. Most recently, Nakano led the field after the short program at the Japanese nationals in December 2008, but ended up skating one of her weakest long programs in memory, dropping to 5th place and being left off of the world championship team.
Nakano has several lovely aspects to her skating, all of which are marred by her greatest trademark and weakness, her leg wrap. Skaters typically cross their legs tightly in the air for a jump, but for whatever peculiar reason, Nakano developed a technique where her left leg crosses over her right thigh, thus creating a distracting line and providing an impediment to the rotation speed of her jumps. She is immune from using that technique on her salchow jump and also on her triple axel, a jump she has not landed cleanly in well over a year.
As far as placements are concerned for this competition, it is worth noting that Nakano improved very quickly at the beginning of last season, when she performed poorly at a minor competition in Japan before going on to skate strongly and place second at Skate America. Nakano was also strong at her opening Grand Prix event in 2007, Skate Canada, and thus could be in for a good competition here despite her poor outing in Japan just weeks ago.
Caroline Zhang (USA)
Zhang will be returning to competition after a raucous off-season, which included two coaching changes (one to Charlene Wong and one back to her original coach, Mingzhu Li), a torn meniscus, and a third place finish (behind Rachael Flatt and Mirai Nagasu) at the Golden West competition last month. Zhang had a bittersweet 2008/2009 season, missing the world championship team while going on to prove in nearly every way possible, whether it be Alissa Czisny's short program meltdown in Los Angeles, Zhang's fourth place finish against a deep field at the Four Continents Championships, or Zhang attaining the top technical score in her free skate at the World Team Trophy, that she deserved to compete in Los Angeles.
Zhang has certain aspects to her skating that are absolutely spellbinding, and other aspects that earn her a plethora of scornful remarks from observers. Zhang can bend her body limitlessly, but skates slower than Carolina Kostner does in slow motion and has an extremely awkward technique on her flip and lutzes, where she twists her hips and kicks her leg up to the ceiling, a technique dubbed the "mule kick" by critics. The main issue with Zhang is that she has been said to have an extremely difficult time breaking out of her confort zone, which is certainly an evident reality when considering the lack of improvement in many aspects of her skating over the past few seasons in terms of speed, transitions, the mule kick, and presentation. Zhang is notorious for flutzing, but was credited with a clean lutz at the Golden West competition. However, she received an "!" call for her flip at that competition, which was also a call she received at this year's U.S. nationals.
Zhang was far from her optimum at her first competition last season, Skate Canada, which seemed to play a factor in how she was scored at nationals relative to Alissa Czisny, who outscored Zhang in the long program despite only landing three triples to Zhang's six. Zhang seems to be marked more favorably internationally than she is domestically, an oddity which she would like to reverse for the time being to earn an Olympic berth. As nationals results are frequently based off of Grand Prix results when it comes to someone being favored on the second mark, two quality performances are necessary for Zhang in Paris.
Predicted Standings-Ladies
Gold: Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
Silver: Mao Asada (Japan)
Bronze: Yukari Nakano (Japan)
4th: Carolina Kostner (Italy)
5th: Caroline Zhang (USA)
6th: Elene Gedevanishvili (Georgia)
That is all.
Friday, October 9, 2009
2009 Trophée Bompard Preview
There are six total Grand Prixs which are contested in six successive weeks in the fall prior to the final. Each skater or pair/dance team is assigned a maximum of two Grand Prixs, and those who have two Grand Prixs are the only ones with feasible chances to qualify to the Grand Prix Final. The top three finishers from last year's worlds do not compete at the same events, and the same is true for the 4th-6th place finishers. Other factors that determine whether a skater receives two Grand Prix assignments include ISU world ranking, season's best total from last year, and placement at last season's Worlds, Grand Prix Final, and Junior Grand Prix Final. Inevitably, the strength of the competition is greater at some events, particularly when skaters become injured and have to withdraw from a competition. Nonetheless, all events are weighted equally. There is a points system alotted to determine who will compete at the Grand Prix Final, set to take place in Tokyo this December. A first place finish receives 15 points, 2nd place 13 points, 3rd place 11 points, 4th place nine, 5th place seven, 6th place five, 7th place four, and 8th place three. The top six skaters or pair/dance teams in each discipline qualify to the final and all competitors enter the competition with a clean sleight.
The 2009 Trophée Bompard will be contested next week in Paris, France, and will serve as the first major competition of the season, with five world champions scheduled to compete. Although the skaters don't wish to be at their optimum at this time, they still want to be in good enough form to place at this competition, and preferably medal, so as to augment their chances of qualifying to the Grand Prix Final. While it is not the end of the earth if a skater doesn't qualify to the Final, it is of his own benefit to do so to allow for greater confidence and political backing at the skater's national championship and onward to the Olympic Games.
In the pairs event, current two-time world champions Aliona Savchenko and Robin Szolkowy of Germany are coming off of a victory at the Nebelhorn Trophy just two weeks ago. However, their shaky long program at that competition means there is much room for improvement at this competition, although looking at the competition it is unlikely the German pair will be defeated regardless of how they skate.
The 2007 world champion Brian Joubert will be competing at his home Grand Prix event for the 2nd straight year, and Joubert is hardly immune to nerves associated with a home crowd, finishing 4th at this event last year and suffering a defeat to relative unknown Florent Amodio at the French Masters competition just recently. Joubert will not be competing against Amodio at this competition, but should face tight competition from 2009 World Junior Champion Adam Rippon, 2008 European Champion Tomas Verner and compatriots Yannick Ponsero (2009 French Champion) and Alban Preaubert (2006 Grand Prix Finalist).
Canada's premier ice dance team, Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir, will be competing for the first time since last year's World Championships, where they edged training partners Meryl Davis and Charlie White by a mere .04. The Canadians were not present at the Grand Prix last season because Virtue underwent surgery on her legs after it was discovered that she has an unusual condition where her legs were unable to expand and contract normally. Virtue and Moir should have an easy victory at this event, although the French will be well represented by Nathalie Pechalat and Fabien Bourzat, who snuck into the top five at last year's World Championships.
The ladies event is often jokingly referred to as the "ladiezzzz event" by fans, but the competition will be anything other than a snooze fest in Paris, where the deepest ladies Grand Prix field among the six events will take the ice. Defending world champion Yu-Na Kim will face off her top rival, Japan's Mao Asada, while in the process debuting her new programs. Asada recently performed her long program at the Japan Open, but will debut her short program in Paris. Italy's Carolina Kostner is making her first competitive appearence since her nightmare free skate in Los Angeles, where she dropped from 5th place in the short program to 12th overall with a disastrous skate. Three-time Japanese world team member Yukari Nakano and current U.S. bronze medalist Caroline Zhang will also look to stir up the standings. The 2006 Olympic silver medalist, Sasha Cohen, was slated to have Trophée Eric Bompard be her return to competition, but she recently withdrew due to tendonitis in her right calf.
In my next post, I will breakdown of the competitiors who will be competing in each discipline, and my predictions as to where each skater will finish in Paris.
That is all.
The 2009 Trophée Bompard will be contested next week in Paris, France, and will serve as the first major competition of the season, with five world champions scheduled to compete. Although the skaters don't wish to be at their optimum at this time, they still want to be in good enough form to place at this competition, and preferably medal, so as to augment their chances of qualifying to the Grand Prix Final. While it is not the end of the earth if a skater doesn't qualify to the Final, it is of his own benefit to do so to allow for greater confidence and political backing at the skater's national championship and onward to the Olympic Games.
In the pairs event, current two-time world champions Aliona Savchenko and Robin Szolkowy of Germany are coming off of a victory at the Nebelhorn Trophy just two weeks ago. However, their shaky long program at that competition means there is much room for improvement at this competition, although looking at the competition it is unlikely the German pair will be defeated regardless of how they skate.
The 2007 world champion Brian Joubert will be competing at his home Grand Prix event for the 2nd straight year, and Joubert is hardly immune to nerves associated with a home crowd, finishing 4th at this event last year and suffering a defeat to relative unknown Florent Amodio at the French Masters competition just recently. Joubert will not be competing against Amodio at this competition, but should face tight competition from 2009 World Junior Champion Adam Rippon, 2008 European Champion Tomas Verner and compatriots Yannick Ponsero (2009 French Champion) and Alban Preaubert (2006 Grand Prix Finalist).
Canada's premier ice dance team, Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir, will be competing for the first time since last year's World Championships, where they edged training partners Meryl Davis and Charlie White by a mere .04. The Canadians were not present at the Grand Prix last season because Virtue underwent surgery on her legs after it was discovered that she has an unusual condition where her legs were unable to expand and contract normally. Virtue and Moir should have an easy victory at this event, although the French will be well represented by Nathalie Pechalat and Fabien Bourzat, who snuck into the top five at last year's World Championships.
The ladies event is often jokingly referred to as the "ladiezzzz event" by fans, but the competition will be anything other than a snooze fest in Paris, where the deepest ladies Grand Prix field among the six events will take the ice. Defending world champion Yu-Na Kim will face off her top rival, Japan's Mao Asada, while in the process debuting her new programs. Asada recently performed her long program at the Japan Open, but will debut her short program in Paris. Italy's Carolina Kostner is making her first competitive appearence since her nightmare free skate in Los Angeles, where she dropped from 5th place in the short program to 12th overall with a disastrous skate. Three-time Japanese world team member Yukari Nakano and current U.S. bronze medalist Caroline Zhang will also look to stir up the standings. The 2006 Olympic silver medalist, Sasha Cohen, was slated to have Trophée Eric Bompard be her return to competition, but she recently withdrew due to tendonitis in her right calf.
In my next post, I will breakdown of the competitiors who will be competing in each discipline, and my predictions as to where each skater will finish in Paris.
That is all.
Friday, April 3, 2009
Final Post of the Season
Unfortunately, I will be temporarily closing down this blog because the season, with the exception of the fairly inconsequential ISU Team Trophy coming up, has terminated. I will plan to post again in October 2009 when the Grand Prix series begins.
I was in attendance at the 2009 World Figure Skating Championships last week for the ladies short, dance free, and ladies free. As you all know the results and happenings of the competition, my own miscellaneous thoughts:
That is all.
I was in attendance at the 2009 World Figure Skating Championships last week for the ladies short, dance free, and ladies free. As you all know the results and happenings of the competition, my own miscellaneous thoughts:
- Yu-Na Kim's performances, especially the SP, were magical. She owned the triple+triple combo and her overall presence was quite comparable to when Katarina Witt was skating. To see her skate well was not really a surprise, as during both the short and long program Kim nailed jump after jump in warm-up, with the exception of falling on the back-end of a triple flip+triple toe towards the end of her long program warm-up. The energy she brought to the ice during her short program was astounding, and had the audience in the palm of her hand throughout the entire skate. There was one moment before she took to her step sequence in the short where the audience cheered for her and her face just lit up; she was clearly having an incredible time out there. Her long was brilliant too, and while it was a wee bit disappointing not to see her go for broke and try the loop, I loved the Ina Bauer into the double axel with the spiral coming out of it. There was quite a bit of national pride at skate amongst the fans in the building; the Korean fans went absolutely nuts when Kim finished but a contingent of Japanese fans sitting behind me didn't even bother to stand after either program of Kim's.
- Joannie Rochette was wonderful, but it's a shame that her long, a performance I was really looking forward to, failed to live up to its potential. Her short was very elegant, especially with the beautiful spiral out of the double axel, and her very precise, nuanced choreography. I actually never witnessed her trying a triple lutz+triple toe in the short program warm-up, so I was surprised to see her stating in an article after the SP had concluded that she was planning on going for it in the competition. Her long warm-up was very good, but her skate was a bit tentative with two relatively major errors. I think what is most impressive about Joannie's skating is her great amplitude on her jumps, and the beautiful use of her arms and her back.
- Miki Ando did two flawless, rotated triple lutz+triple loops during warm-up for her SP, so it was a real shame to see that the one she did in competition was under rotated on the second jump. Miki looks far more impressive live than on TV, as she really has decent posture, great speed, and great height and ice coverage on her triple jumps. While I personally didn't care for her SP, her LP was excellent, and I don't just mean the jumps. While I usually find Miki's skating to revolve around the triple jumps, (BTW she never tried a quad salchow in warm-up), she had great facial expression and I thought her last step sequence was very dynamic and strong. She certainly didn't have the most difficult choreography, but she absolutely sold what she could out of that performance.
- Mao Asada probably had the most disciplined warm-ups of any of the ladies, trying triple jumps right and left. She looked good during her SP warm-up, landing triple flip+triple loop and a couple triple lutzes. Unfortunately, towards the end of the warm-up the lutz came away from her, stepping out of one attempt and doubling another. The latter mistake came back when she skated her program, but otherwise she was quite lovely. The thing that differentiates Mao so much from Kim is that she skates like no one is watching her, whereas Kim skates like she wants to bring the house down. Asada, while very beautiful, had a sense of predictability in her programs this year that made her less exciting to watch than Kim in my opinion. During the warm-up for her long, Mao landed two beautiful triple axels, both unquestionably rotated and cleanly landed. While her first 3A in her long was fine, she seemed to be too far back in the air to cleanly complete the second. While I don't despise her "Masquerade" long as some other fans do, I think that the major weakness of the program is Mao's absence of a slow section. The choreography is difficult, but unfortunately she makes it look difficult because she doesn't have any time to rest. Her step sequence was the best choreographic passage of the program; very dynamic, intricate, and it went with the music. Kim and Asada had no collisions or near-collisions during either warm-up; if anything Asada was intentionally avoiding Kim.
- Rachael Flatt's artistry is entirely in her face. What is lacking with her is that her arms are fairly stiff, and she holds a lot of tension in her shoulders and upper back, thus causing her to look shorter. It was particularly obvious in the short, when Joannie skated directly after Rachael, with Joannie having a really straight back and Rachael being more hunched over. With that said, Rachael was very wise to switch her long program back to last year's "Romantic Rhapsody" because that one had superior choreography and was a superior music choice as well. Rachael should absolutely be commended for her continued strength as a competitor, and her long program seemed to get stronger as it went. Her triple+triple is an area for concern, however, because she missed it both times in competition. She completed one 3/3 in the short program and long program warm-ups, but both times the triple toe was noticeably under rotated.
- Laura Lepisto has improved her artistry; I believe I noticed more emotion and presence than at Europeans and other previous competitions. Her weakness in presentation, like Flatt, is her relatively stiff arms. She landed a beautiful triple toe+triple toe during the SP warm-up but only did a triple toe+double toe during the competition. She has nice technique, and is a very clean skater who I will look forward to seeing more of in the future.
- Alena Leonova was most enjoyable to see. I was not a happy soul when she beat Caroline Zhang and Ashley Wagner for the world junior title, but all of that disappointment went away when I saw her short program. Sometimes, you just like to see a skater who isn't so technically polished, but really fights for everything and who clearly enjoys skating. She really just looked like she was at the World Championship for the first time and she was going to enjoy every bit of it. Her spirals and spin positions are unquestionably in need of improvement, but her jumps are quite solid (a slight exception being the lutz) and she reminded be quite a bit of Stephanie Rosenthal from 2006 Nationals in terms of her ability to show that she enjoys skating.
- Fumie Suguri's skating, sadly, made me wish Yukari Nakano had been there instead. While Suguri did skate with some palpable fire in her short program, her Otonal long program was quite a festival of boredom. However, technically she was pretty strong, and her soft landings to her jumps are absolutely one of the strongest points to her skating, and such a quality was something that not many of the other girls had. She and Ando came very late to the SP warm-up, and Suguri herself was marked with going overtime by a second during her SP. I was looking at the clock as Suguri finished her SP. She reached her ending pose at 2:50, but the clock strangely went on an extra second to 2:51, thus incurring a deduction for being overtime.
- It was great to see Sarah Meier back in action, and I thoroughly impressed at how steady and relatively fit she looked considering her injuries and lack of training time. She looked very solid throughout her warm-ups and competition skates, and I particularly enjoyed her long program (the same LP she did last year), which had a particularly nice step sequence.
- Elene Gedevanishvilli has great spark and energy to her skating, and had a particularly nice triple lutz and triple toe+triple toe combination in her long program. She has excellent speed, just needs to polish her positions and improve her consistency.
- Alissa Czisny looked excellent during the SP warm-up, not missing a thing. After her triple lutz+double toe in the short, I thought we were in for an excellent program until Czisny held on to her triple flip entrance edge way too long (and thus too close to the boards), and she tried to get her weight forward to compensate for the lack of room she had, thus ending up falling. Her long program warm-up was also strong, landing the triple toe+double toe+double toe that she didn't do in her actual skate. Czisny landed two clean triple lutz+double toe combinations in her long, in addition to a triple flip. Her triple loop was noticeably under rotated, and was rightfully downgraded. While Czisny is a very elegant skater, she really does lack speed in comparison with the top women. I think that could play a part into why her jumps are so wonky, considering that she often goes into her jumps with fairly slow and tentative entrances.
- According to Philip Hersh's latest article, Carolina Kostner was not injured and this is most surprising. Kostner really needs to invigorate her training habits, because in the warm-up for the long program, I looked at her fairly closely and never saw a triple+triple attempt or a triple lutz attempt. I also didn't see a triple+triple attempt during her short, although if I remember correctly she did do a clean lutz during the warm-up. Her PCS score of 58.48 for her long program was absolutely absurd, although thankfully inconsequential to the final outcome. I actually was very disappointed when Kostner skated so poorly in the long, because I find her "Dumky Trio" long to be very elegant, yet fiery.
That is all.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
2009 World Figure Skating Championships-Ladies Preview
The 2009 World Figure Skating Championships will truly be a world competition, with female skaters from Japan, South Korea, Canada, United States, Finland, and Italy expected to contend for the top ranks at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, California, beginning on March 27th. The former powers of women's figure skating, the United States and Russia, have since demolished. But where popularity and success of the sport has declined there, in Asia it has done nothing but blossom. Prior to 2005, South Korea and figure skating would never be placed in the same sentence. Four years later, Yu-Na Kim has become one of the most recognizable athletes in Korean history, and with that, figure skating has become a colossally popular sport in that nation. Japan began to seriously follow the sport when Midori Ito emerged as a world champion in 1989, going on to win Olympic silver in 1992. After a drought of talent, the prospects for Japanese figure skating looked benign when several veterans and newcomers started accumulating success around 2002. However, it wasn't until a young, dainty girl by the name of Mao Asada started attempting triple axels at the age of 13, when Japan knew it had found its next ice queen. Heading into these World Championships, the two skaters will continue their electrifying rivalry to determine who is the best ladies figure skater in the world. Kim, expressive and dramatic, and Asada, light and airy, will be the contenders to beat at these World Championships and at the Olympic Games next February.
However, just because ladies skating has been dominated by the "Asian Invasion" doesn't mean that it ends there. Joannie Rochette of Canada will have something to say about a 1-2 finish for Kim and Asada, as she has beat Asada twice this season. Carolina Kostner of Italy split the two skaters at last year's World Championships, but that time it was Kim who had to settle for 3rd while battling a nagging back injury. The story lines fail to just end at who will receive gold, silver, and bronze, however. Three countries will be battling each other to secure a high enough finish (a combined placement of 13 from the two skaters of that country) to get three Olympic berths in 2010. Finland and Canada could realistically do without a third berth, but the United States would love more than anything to snatch it. With there being an immensely deep pool of talented yet inconsistent U.S. ladies skaters, and also adding in the potential comebacks of Sasha Cohen or Michelle Kwan, a third Olympic spot would be most desirable for the U.S. The reasoning is such that because all of the U.S. girls are roughly on the same plane in terms of their medal prospects, it doesn't hurt to send one more girl who may just have a Paul Wylie-esque Olympics.
With all of that said, one can never forget how truly prestigious the World Figure Skating Championships are. Skaters should be thrilled that they have even made it to Worlds, as several world-class skaters will not be able to make such a statement. Notable competitors absent from the world championship include Kiira Korpi, Kimmie Meissner, Mirai Nagasu, Yukari Nakano, Akiko Suzuki, Ashley Wagner, and Caroline Zhang. The cold, harsh reality is such that even if some of these aforementioned names will be in Vancouver, it will come at the expense of another skater who is equally as deserving.
Skaters Featured In Post
Miki Ando (Japan)
Mao Asada (Japan)
Alissa Czisny (USA)
Rachael Flatt (USA)
Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
Carolina Kostner (Italy)
Laura Lepisto (Finland)
Sarah Meier (Switzerland)
Cynthia Phaneuf (Canada)
Susanna Poykio (Finland)
Joannie Rochette (Canada)
Fumie Suguri (Japan)
Red indicates commentary of skater is featured in part 1 of post
Blue indicates commentary of skater is featured in part 2 of post
Miki Ando (Japan)
Expectations Coming In: Miki Ando has had an unsteady season thus far, finishing 6th out of six skaters at the Grand Prix Final and 3rd at the Japanese Nationals, barely finishing high enough to make the world team. She is a former world champion from 2007, but has seldom skated to that level since.
Pros: At her peak, Miki Ando has the capability to shove past her competitors with remarkable skates. The three best overall competitions of Miki's career: 2006 Skate America, 2007 World Championships, and the 2008 Japanese Nationals, all came when Miki wasn't favored to win. Considered an underdog in L.A., Miki could place highly with triple-triple combinations, an improved long program to the music of Camille Saint-Seans' "Organ Symphony," and a possible quadruple salchow jump. Ando will be one of the most experienced ladies competing in Los Angeles, and over the years has made noticeable improvement in her non-jump elements, notably her spins and footwork. Miki's total average score this season, a 165.85, is the 4th highest among the women competing in L.A. and is higher than that of last year's silver medalist, Carolina Kostner.
Cons: Ando has only been credited with landing one triple-triple combination among five attempts this season. Over a span of four competitions, Ando had a total of 15 jumps downgraded, and her possibly attempting a quadruple salchow in Los Angeles could backfire if the jump gets downgraded and if the element has a faulty landing. Ando was heavily criticized for her lack of artistry during CBC's coverage of the Grand Prix Final, with the normally benevolent Tracy Wilson commenting during her final step sequence, "This is the first time it's feeling to me [in the program] that she's starting to feel the music." While her PCS marks hover in the 55-56 range in the long program, they are not to the level of the 60+ PCS marks that go to the long programs of Mao Asada, Yu-Na Kim, and Joannie Rochette. The validity of Miki's ticket to L.A. has been a hot debate amongst skating fans, as many feel that Akiko Suzuki was under marked at Japanese Nationals and thus should have finished ahead of Ando's sub par performance.
Outlook: Ando's decision to include the quad should come on the basis of how her other elements, specifically jumps, are looking. Ando's scoring sheets have been littered with "<"s, although Miki is a skater who only needs to rotate her jumps ever so slightly more to get full credit, as opposed to a true chronic under rotater like Mirai Nagasu. If she still feels that she is at risk for receiving downgrades and lower levels (she received two level 2s during her free at GPF), than Ando might as well try the quad, as she would have nothing to lose to try such a daunting skill (other than injury). While much is up in the air regarding Ando's potential placement, there is one thing that is for certain. Miki does her best when she is the underdog. Making the world team as the third-ranked Japanese skater, and doing so by only .11 of a point, makes her exactly that.
Mao Asada (Japan)
Expectations Coming In: Asada is the reigning world champion, winning the title after suffering a horrific fall on a triple axel attempt and going on to skate brilliantly throughout the rest of the program. She has had an up-and-down season, winning the Grand Prix Final but only placing 3rd at the Four Continents Championships. With her recent loss in Vancouver, she will not be the favorite to win in Los Angeles.
Pros: The only woman at the World Championships who will even attempt a triple axel, Mao takes it a step further, attempting two in her long program. She landed both triple axels cleanly at the Grand Prix Final, going on to defeat Yu-Na Kim in her home country. Asada is known to be an exceptionally complete skater, with tremendous jumps, spins, footwork, and artistry. Asada is capable of landing triple-triple combinations in both programs, and no longer receives a deduction for flutzing. Asada also looks toward high GOEs for her jump combinations, where she often adds a Tano-style arm to her double jumps.
Cons: Asada performed poorly (by her standards) at the recent Four Continents Championships, and was rumored to be suffering a knee injury. Asada has not been credited with one triple-triple combination since last year's worlds, and out of seven triple axel attempts this season only four were ratified. Turning away from the technical standpoint of Asada's skating, her long program to the music of Aram Khachaturian's "Masquerade" has been criticized as bleak and desolate. Unfortunately, the program highlights Asada's weakness in not being able to relate to the audience as much as Yu-Na Kim, and her PCS marks were lower than Kim at the Grand Prix Final in both programs. In terms of averages this season, Asada's total score is 180.947, a full 7.86 points behind Kim's total average and only .975 ahead of Rochette's.
Outlook: If past history means anything, Asada will look improved from her Four Continents showing. Earlier this season, Asada improved dramatically between her season opener at Trophee Eric Bombard to the NHK Trophy, which was only two weeks later. Mao has performed very well at the last two world championships, and just to show those who wish to write her off, Asada still scored a very respectable 109.47 at this season's Trophee Eric Bombard, after what was undoubtedly one of the weakest skates in her career. However, Kim's victory in Vancouver does mean that Asada will have an uphill battle to defend her title. In that sense, a little reverse psychology could save the day. Midori Ito was overwhelmed by the monstrosity of pressure from the Japanese media at the 1992 Olympics, and she was entering the games as the 1989 World Champion and having finished off the podium at the 1991 Worlds. Considering how insufferable it could be for a two-time and reigning world champion heading into the Olympics, it may actually be a blessing in disguise if Asada is not crowned champion of the world in 2009.
Alissa Czisny (USA)
Expectations Going In: Czisny has showcased creditable improvement this year, with that rise meeting with a U.S. National title in January. However, her win in Cleveland was considered extremely debatable, mainly due to her substantially higher PCS marks in the long program. Going on to Four Continents Championships, two relatively shaky skates put her in 9th place overall, and will need to do much better to help assure the United States of three Olympic spots.
Pros: Take away the jumps, and Czisny is one of the finest skaters in the world. Armed with legs that extend to tomorrow and a quiet, serene elegance, Alissa has worked with Brian Boitano and his former coach, Linda Leaver, to improve her jumping technique and her ability to focus in competition. Alissa's inordinate spins, posture, and musicality have made it clear that if nothing else, the judges do still reward her with decent marks even if she skates less than lovely. This is evidenced by the fact that despite a flawed long program at the Four Continents Championships, she scored higher PCS marks than Cynthia Phaneuf, Caroline Zhang, Rachael Flatt, and Akiko Suzuki in that portion of the competition.
Cons: Many are fearful that Alissa's past inconsistencies will continue in California, where arguably the biggest test of her career will be placed. Czisny does not have a triple salchow in her jumping repertoire, and occasionally receives an "!" edge penalty on her triple flip. Czisny only has a 54% hit record of her triple jumps this season ( statistic doesn't include the summer B-competitions that she attended), and this is only with Alissa attempting five triples in the long program, when most of the other top ladies are doing six or seven. Czisny's clean short at the U.S. Nationals was the first time she had done a faultless short in a major competition since 2005 Skate Canada. Czisny's total score at the Four Continents Championships was her international seasons best score, where she still finished a disappointing 9th.
Outlook: Many think that the ship has already sailed regarding the United States' hope for three ladies spots in Vancouver next year, and the reason why is because Caroline Zhang wasn't on board. Czisny's worth as national champion, in addition to her spot on the world team, weakened when Zhang outscored Czisny by 11.41 points at 4CCs, putting Zhang's seasons best at 5th while putting Czisny's at 14th. Despite all of her past troubles and the controversy, Czisny will be going to Los Angeles to compete at her 2nd world championship, and if she does precisely what she didn't do in Tokyo at her first world championship (where she finished in 15th place) she should do just fine. First off, a clean short is a must. If nothing else, a clean short should get her into the final group for the free skate, which would help boost her PCS marks in the long. As far as the long program is concerned, Czisny has hinted that she will upgrade the content of her long program. The safest and most intelligent way to do this would probably be to replace one of her double axels with a triple loop. The loop has been her steadiest jump this season, and considering that even her double axels aren't particularly solid, she would have little to lose by making such a change. While Czisny's potential placement is still very much unclear, the judges have reiterated their appreciation for her elegant line and will reward her if she is to skate well.
Rachael Flatt (USA)
Expectations Going In: Flatt has lost the two U.S. titles by meager margins, but looking at the overall results this season she is going to worlds as the top American. Rachael is generally known to peak when it is most important, and she is a very strong jumper. However, her artistry, spins and speed take her out of immediate medal contention.
Pros: Flatt has triple-triple combinations planned in both programs, and has done seven clean triples in her long program more than once. Her choice to revert back to last year's long program to Mathieu's "Romantic Rhapsody" looks to be a good one in terms of boosting that critical second mark. Flatt peaked late in the season last year, arguably delivering the best skates of her career to win the world junior title ahead of Caroline Zhang and Mirai Nagasu. With many of her rivals known to fall apart in one way or another when the pressure is on, Flatt's consistency could dodge challenges from her fellow competitors to ensure a strong placement, as is her intelligent working of the code of points.
Cons: Flatt is heavily reliant on the triple jumps to get her a competitive score, but unfortunately Rachael has only managed one successful triple-triple combination this entire season. Flatt doesn't lengthen through her spine as she skates, thus creating the image of pore posture. Among other things, Flatt has been widely criticized for her generic programs, lack of speed, and unpolished positions in her spins and spirals. At the recent Four Continents Championships, Flatt's PCS marks in the long reflected these aforementioned areas that are in need of improvement, only scoring 51.04, the 9th highest PCS total of the free skate. Rachael has also received several "!" and even "e" wrong-edge deductions for her lutz.
Overall: Flatt's overall finish in Los Angeles could have quite a bit to do with how skaters like Ando, Lepisto, Phaneuf, and Suguri perform. Unfortunately, Rachel's scoring potential is not of top caliber because she lacks an overall signature to her skating, and she is not exempt to downgrades and wrong-edge deductions. While a medal may not be forthcoming, a high placement around 5th-7th could be there for her if she skates at her apex in California, and if other competitors open the door Rachael will be sure to walk through. Flatt is in many ways the polar opposite of Czisny, as Rachael is consistent yet unpolished whereas the reverse is true for Alissa. The two are capable of placing a combined 13th to get three Olympic spots, and Flatt will look to make as little mistakes as possible to take the pressure off of Alissa to complete the task at hand.
Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
Expectations Going In: Kim was a favorite to win the last two world championships, but a back injury impeded her abilities, thus forcing her to settle for bronze in both cases. An astoundingly popular athlete in her home country, Kim hopes that the third time will be the charm in Los Angeles. Despite a loss at home during the Grand Prix Final, her victory at the Four Continents Championships against a deep field cements her status as favorite at worlds.
Pros: Blessed with immaculate security on her jumps, improved spins and spirals and a true sense of musicality in her programs, the two-time Grand Prix Final Champion has the highest total average score this season, a 188.805. While Asada may have the advantage in quantity, Kim will make that up with the quality of her elements, with +1 and +2 GOEs frequently flocking to her triple-triple combinations, triple lutzes, and double axels. Her PCS marks in the long program have not been below 60 for the entirety of this season, and she is less prone to getting downgrades and wrong-edge deductions than many of her other top competitors. Kim holds the two highest scores in the short program (72.24 and 71.95) and the highest free skate mark (133.70) in the history of the current judging system.
Cons: Despite winning the 2009 Four Continents title with room to spare, Kim did have notable mistakes in the long program, falling and under rotating her triple loop and also under rotating her triple lutz. The triple loop has been Kim's chief weakness throughout her career, and has not landed the jump in competition since November 2007. Kim's back has been a source of injury for her, and despite being a strong favorite for the title the last two years, she was injured and suffered errors in the long (2007) and the short (2008), that prevented her from winning. Yu-Na is not the most technically polished skater out there, which is evident in many of her spin and spiral positions.
Outlook: The first task that is in order for Kim to win her first world title is to say farewell to the triple loop. Practise reports indicate that Kim can do the jump, and she has landed it twice in competition, but it has become an enormous psychological obstacle for her. Luckily, switching a double axel should save the day, as she has done at many past championships. Her double axel in place of the triple loop in the long at this season's Grand Prix Final received a +1.80 GOE, thus receiving a total of 5.30 points for the element. The most Kim has ever received for a triple loop is 5.50 points, so realistically the risk isn't worth the reward. Where Kim will look to blast through her competition is in the short program, where a score of 70 is possible. However, leading after the short is also a double-edged sword, as proven with her faulty long programs after being in the lead at the 2007 Worlds and 2008 Grand Prix Final. A few minor errors aside, Kim looks healthy and fit this season and Brian Orser will look to peak her at just the right time so that the 2009 world title will be hers for the taking.
Carolina Kostner (Italy)
Expectations Going In: Kostner has two world medals, a bronze from 2005 and a silver from 2008. Kostner is expected to be sturdy medal threat in L.A., although the top spot on the podium will continue to be elusive for the Italian. Kostner has not had the best season, as evidenced by her losing the European title to Laura Lepisto. Thus, a world medal of any color will be considered an accomplishment.
Pros: With speed that puts Apollo Anton Ohno to shame, Kostner is a fine jumper and is known for her excpetional spiral and step sequences. Kostner frequently scores above 110 points in the free because she is usually immune to under rotating jumps, and receiving wrong-edge penalties on either her lutz or flip. Having graduated from being a newcomer, Kostner is now an experienced veteran and will be entering her 7th world championship in March. Having not had such an excellent season, she won't have as much pressure as skaters like Asada, Kim, and Rochette. Kostner took advantage of a poor short program from Joannie Rochette at the Grand Prix Final to win the bronze medal, despite Carolina having a fairly rough long program herself.
Cons: Kostner has poor technique on her double axel jump, and often breaks flow and telegraphs the entrances to many of her jumping passes. Carolina is not known to be the best spinner, and on that note, she recently lost the European title on the basis that she wasn't given any credit for a combination spin in the long program (she apparently did too many revolutions to count the spin as a sit spin combination, and instead it was counted as an extra combination spin). Kostner has struggled with skating cleanly at the world championships, let alone in both programs. Many consider her silver medal from last year's worlds to be a ludicrous result, and it is rumored that the ISU took a lot of criticism for the result as well.
Outlook: If it is to be assumed that Kim and Asada are to finish 1-2 (which is by no means a guarantee), Joannie Rochette should prove to be Kostner's toughest rival for the bronze medal. Per the results of the season, Rochette looks to have a distinct advantage over Kostner, as Rochette has a 179.973 seasons average as opposed to Kostner's 164.228. Kostner will come into L.A. as somewhat of an outside medal threat, but she should continue to be the only European lady capable of medaling at the world championship, something that could help her out politically. Nerves have impeded her progress on the world stage, which is a real shame. Her 2007 worlds short program showed to everyone that in the event where she is to relax and just skate, the result is sublime.
Part 2 to come shortly.
That is all.
However, just because ladies skating has been dominated by the "Asian Invasion" doesn't mean that it ends there. Joannie Rochette of Canada will have something to say about a 1-2 finish for Kim and Asada, as she has beat Asada twice this season. Carolina Kostner of Italy split the two skaters at last year's World Championships, but that time it was Kim who had to settle for 3rd while battling a nagging back injury. The story lines fail to just end at who will receive gold, silver, and bronze, however. Three countries will be battling each other to secure a high enough finish (a combined placement of 13 from the two skaters of that country) to get three Olympic berths in 2010. Finland and Canada could realistically do without a third berth, but the United States would love more than anything to snatch it. With there being an immensely deep pool of talented yet inconsistent U.S. ladies skaters, and also adding in the potential comebacks of Sasha Cohen or Michelle Kwan, a third Olympic spot would be most desirable for the U.S. The reasoning is such that because all of the U.S. girls are roughly on the same plane in terms of their medal prospects, it doesn't hurt to send one more girl who may just have a Paul Wylie-esque Olympics.
With all of that said, one can never forget how truly prestigious the World Figure Skating Championships are. Skaters should be thrilled that they have even made it to Worlds, as several world-class skaters will not be able to make such a statement. Notable competitors absent from the world championship include Kiira Korpi, Kimmie Meissner, Mirai Nagasu, Yukari Nakano, Akiko Suzuki, Ashley Wagner, and Caroline Zhang. The cold, harsh reality is such that even if some of these aforementioned names will be in Vancouver, it will come at the expense of another skater who is equally as deserving.
Skaters Featured In Post
Miki Ando (Japan)
Mao Asada (Japan)
Alissa Czisny (USA)
Rachael Flatt (USA)
Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
Carolina Kostner (Italy)
Laura Lepisto (Finland)
Sarah Meier (Switzerland)
Cynthia Phaneuf (Canada)
Susanna Poykio (Finland)
Joannie Rochette (Canada)
Fumie Suguri (Japan)
Red indicates commentary of skater is featured in part 1 of post
Blue indicates commentary of skater is featured in part 2 of post
Miki Ando (Japan)
Expectations Coming In: Miki Ando has had an unsteady season thus far, finishing 6th out of six skaters at the Grand Prix Final and 3rd at the Japanese Nationals, barely finishing high enough to make the world team. She is a former world champion from 2007, but has seldom skated to that level since.
Pros: At her peak, Miki Ando has the capability to shove past her competitors with remarkable skates. The three best overall competitions of Miki's career: 2006 Skate America, 2007 World Championships, and the 2008 Japanese Nationals, all came when Miki wasn't favored to win. Considered an underdog in L.A., Miki could place highly with triple-triple combinations, an improved long program to the music of Camille Saint-Seans' "Organ Symphony," and a possible quadruple salchow jump. Ando will be one of the most experienced ladies competing in Los Angeles, and over the years has made noticeable improvement in her non-jump elements, notably her spins and footwork. Miki's total average score this season, a 165.85, is the 4th highest among the women competing in L.A. and is higher than that of last year's silver medalist, Carolina Kostner.
Cons: Ando has only been credited with landing one triple-triple combination among five attempts this season. Over a span of four competitions, Ando had a total of 15 jumps downgraded, and her possibly attempting a quadruple salchow in Los Angeles could backfire if the jump gets downgraded and if the element has a faulty landing. Ando was heavily criticized for her lack of artistry during CBC's coverage of the Grand Prix Final, with the normally benevolent Tracy Wilson commenting during her final step sequence, "This is the first time it's feeling to me [in the program] that she's starting to feel the music." While her PCS marks hover in the 55-56 range in the long program, they are not to the level of the 60+ PCS marks that go to the long programs of Mao Asada, Yu-Na Kim, and Joannie Rochette. The validity of Miki's ticket to L.A. has been a hot debate amongst skating fans, as many feel that Akiko Suzuki was under marked at Japanese Nationals and thus should have finished ahead of Ando's sub par performance.
Outlook: Ando's decision to include the quad should come on the basis of how her other elements, specifically jumps, are looking. Ando's scoring sheets have been littered with "<"s, although Miki is a skater who only needs to rotate her jumps ever so slightly more to get full credit, as opposed to a true chronic under rotater like Mirai Nagasu. If she still feels that she is at risk for receiving downgrades and lower levels (she received two level 2s during her free at GPF), than Ando might as well try the quad, as she would have nothing to lose to try such a daunting skill (other than injury). While much is up in the air regarding Ando's potential placement, there is one thing that is for certain. Miki does her best when she is the underdog. Making the world team as the third-ranked Japanese skater, and doing so by only .11 of a point, makes her exactly that.
Mao Asada (Japan)
Expectations Coming In: Asada is the reigning world champion, winning the title after suffering a horrific fall on a triple axel attempt and going on to skate brilliantly throughout the rest of the program. She has had an up-and-down season, winning the Grand Prix Final but only placing 3rd at the Four Continents Championships. With her recent loss in Vancouver, she will not be the favorite to win in Los Angeles.
Pros: The only woman at the World Championships who will even attempt a triple axel, Mao takes it a step further, attempting two in her long program. She landed both triple axels cleanly at the Grand Prix Final, going on to defeat Yu-Na Kim in her home country. Asada is known to be an exceptionally complete skater, with tremendous jumps, spins, footwork, and artistry. Asada is capable of landing triple-triple combinations in both programs, and no longer receives a deduction for flutzing. Asada also looks toward high GOEs for her jump combinations, where she often adds a Tano-style arm to her double jumps.
Cons: Asada performed poorly (by her standards) at the recent Four Continents Championships, and was rumored to be suffering a knee injury. Asada has not been credited with one triple-triple combination since last year's worlds, and out of seven triple axel attempts this season only four were ratified. Turning away from the technical standpoint of Asada's skating, her long program to the music of Aram Khachaturian's "Masquerade" has been criticized as bleak and desolate. Unfortunately, the program highlights Asada's weakness in not being able to relate to the audience as much as Yu-Na Kim, and her PCS marks were lower than Kim at the Grand Prix Final in both programs. In terms of averages this season, Asada's total score is 180.947, a full 7.86 points behind Kim's total average and only .975 ahead of Rochette's.
Outlook: If past history means anything, Asada will look improved from her Four Continents showing. Earlier this season, Asada improved dramatically between her season opener at Trophee Eric Bombard to the NHK Trophy, which was only two weeks later. Mao has performed very well at the last two world championships, and just to show those who wish to write her off, Asada still scored a very respectable 109.47 at this season's Trophee Eric Bombard, after what was undoubtedly one of the weakest skates in her career. However, Kim's victory in Vancouver does mean that Asada will have an uphill battle to defend her title. In that sense, a little reverse psychology could save the day. Midori Ito was overwhelmed by the monstrosity of pressure from the Japanese media at the 1992 Olympics, and she was entering the games as the 1989 World Champion and having finished off the podium at the 1991 Worlds. Considering how insufferable it could be for a two-time and reigning world champion heading into the Olympics, it may actually be a blessing in disguise if Asada is not crowned champion of the world in 2009.
Alissa Czisny (USA)
Expectations Going In: Czisny has showcased creditable improvement this year, with that rise meeting with a U.S. National title in January. However, her win in Cleveland was considered extremely debatable, mainly due to her substantially higher PCS marks in the long program. Going on to Four Continents Championships, two relatively shaky skates put her in 9th place overall, and will need to do much better to help assure the United States of three Olympic spots.
Pros: Take away the jumps, and Czisny is one of the finest skaters in the world. Armed with legs that extend to tomorrow and a quiet, serene elegance, Alissa has worked with Brian Boitano and his former coach, Linda Leaver, to improve her jumping technique and her ability to focus in competition. Alissa's inordinate spins, posture, and musicality have made it clear that if nothing else, the judges do still reward her with decent marks even if she skates less than lovely. This is evidenced by the fact that despite a flawed long program at the Four Continents Championships, she scored higher PCS marks than Cynthia Phaneuf, Caroline Zhang, Rachael Flatt, and Akiko Suzuki in that portion of the competition.
Cons: Many are fearful that Alissa's past inconsistencies will continue in California, where arguably the biggest test of her career will be placed. Czisny does not have a triple salchow in her jumping repertoire, and occasionally receives an "!" edge penalty on her triple flip. Czisny only has a 54% hit record of her triple jumps this season ( statistic doesn't include the summer B-competitions that she attended), and this is only with Alissa attempting five triples in the long program, when most of the other top ladies are doing six or seven. Czisny's clean short at the U.S. Nationals was the first time she had done a faultless short in a major competition since 2005 Skate Canada. Czisny's total score at the Four Continents Championships was her international seasons best score, where she still finished a disappointing 9th.
Outlook: Many think that the ship has already sailed regarding the United States' hope for three ladies spots in Vancouver next year, and the reason why is because Caroline Zhang wasn't on board. Czisny's worth as national champion, in addition to her spot on the world team, weakened when Zhang outscored Czisny by 11.41 points at 4CCs, putting Zhang's seasons best at 5th while putting Czisny's at 14th. Despite all of her past troubles and the controversy, Czisny will be going to Los Angeles to compete at her 2nd world championship, and if she does precisely what she didn't do in Tokyo at her first world championship (where she finished in 15th place) she should do just fine. First off, a clean short is a must. If nothing else, a clean short should get her into the final group for the free skate, which would help boost her PCS marks in the long. As far as the long program is concerned, Czisny has hinted that she will upgrade the content of her long program. The safest and most intelligent way to do this would probably be to replace one of her double axels with a triple loop. The loop has been her steadiest jump this season, and considering that even her double axels aren't particularly solid, she would have little to lose by making such a change. While Czisny's potential placement is still very much unclear, the judges have reiterated their appreciation for her elegant line and will reward her if she is to skate well.
Rachael Flatt (USA)
Expectations Going In: Flatt has lost the two U.S. titles by meager margins, but looking at the overall results this season she is going to worlds as the top American. Rachael is generally known to peak when it is most important, and she is a very strong jumper. However, her artistry, spins and speed take her out of immediate medal contention.
Pros: Flatt has triple-triple combinations planned in both programs, and has done seven clean triples in her long program more than once. Her choice to revert back to last year's long program to Mathieu's "Romantic Rhapsody" looks to be a good one in terms of boosting that critical second mark. Flatt peaked late in the season last year, arguably delivering the best skates of her career to win the world junior title ahead of Caroline Zhang and Mirai Nagasu. With many of her rivals known to fall apart in one way or another when the pressure is on, Flatt's consistency could dodge challenges from her fellow competitors to ensure a strong placement, as is her intelligent working of the code of points.
Cons: Flatt is heavily reliant on the triple jumps to get her a competitive score, but unfortunately Rachael has only managed one successful triple-triple combination this entire season. Flatt doesn't lengthen through her spine as she skates, thus creating the image of pore posture. Among other things, Flatt has been widely criticized for her generic programs, lack of speed, and unpolished positions in her spins and spirals. At the recent Four Continents Championships, Flatt's PCS marks in the long reflected these aforementioned areas that are in need of improvement, only scoring 51.04, the 9th highest PCS total of the free skate. Rachael has also received several "!" and even "e" wrong-edge deductions for her lutz.
Overall: Flatt's overall finish in Los Angeles could have quite a bit to do with how skaters like Ando, Lepisto, Phaneuf, and Suguri perform. Unfortunately, Rachel's scoring potential is not of top caliber because she lacks an overall signature to her skating, and she is not exempt to downgrades and wrong-edge deductions. While a medal may not be forthcoming, a high placement around 5th-7th could be there for her if she skates at her apex in California, and if other competitors open the door Rachael will be sure to walk through. Flatt is in many ways the polar opposite of Czisny, as Rachael is consistent yet unpolished whereas the reverse is true for Alissa. The two are capable of placing a combined 13th to get three Olympic spots, and Flatt will look to make as little mistakes as possible to take the pressure off of Alissa to complete the task at hand.
Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
Expectations Going In: Kim was a favorite to win the last two world championships, but a back injury impeded her abilities, thus forcing her to settle for bronze in both cases. An astoundingly popular athlete in her home country, Kim hopes that the third time will be the charm in Los Angeles. Despite a loss at home during the Grand Prix Final, her victory at the Four Continents Championships against a deep field cements her status as favorite at worlds.
Pros: Blessed with immaculate security on her jumps, improved spins and spirals and a true sense of musicality in her programs, the two-time Grand Prix Final Champion has the highest total average score this season, a 188.805. While Asada may have the advantage in quantity, Kim will make that up with the quality of her elements, with +1 and +2 GOEs frequently flocking to her triple-triple combinations, triple lutzes, and double axels. Her PCS marks in the long program have not been below 60 for the entirety of this season, and she is less prone to getting downgrades and wrong-edge deductions than many of her other top competitors. Kim holds the two highest scores in the short program (72.24 and 71.95) and the highest free skate mark (133.70) in the history of the current judging system.
Cons: Despite winning the 2009 Four Continents title with room to spare, Kim did have notable mistakes in the long program, falling and under rotating her triple loop and also under rotating her triple lutz. The triple loop has been Kim's chief weakness throughout her career, and has not landed the jump in competition since November 2007. Kim's back has been a source of injury for her, and despite being a strong favorite for the title the last two years, she was injured and suffered errors in the long (2007) and the short (2008), that prevented her from winning. Yu-Na is not the most technically polished skater out there, which is evident in many of her spin and spiral positions.
Outlook: The first task that is in order for Kim to win her first world title is to say farewell to the triple loop. Practise reports indicate that Kim can do the jump, and she has landed it twice in competition, but it has become an enormous psychological obstacle for her. Luckily, switching a double axel should save the day, as she has done at many past championships. Her double axel in place of the triple loop in the long at this season's Grand Prix Final received a +1.80 GOE, thus receiving a total of 5.30 points for the element. The most Kim has ever received for a triple loop is 5.50 points, so realistically the risk isn't worth the reward. Where Kim will look to blast through her competition is in the short program, where a score of 70 is possible. However, leading after the short is also a double-edged sword, as proven with her faulty long programs after being in the lead at the 2007 Worlds and 2008 Grand Prix Final. A few minor errors aside, Kim looks healthy and fit this season and Brian Orser will look to peak her at just the right time so that the 2009 world title will be hers for the taking.
Carolina Kostner (Italy)
Expectations Going In: Kostner has two world medals, a bronze from 2005 and a silver from 2008. Kostner is expected to be sturdy medal threat in L.A., although the top spot on the podium will continue to be elusive for the Italian. Kostner has not had the best season, as evidenced by her losing the European title to Laura Lepisto. Thus, a world medal of any color will be considered an accomplishment.
Pros: With speed that puts Apollo Anton Ohno to shame, Kostner is a fine jumper and is known for her excpetional spiral and step sequences. Kostner frequently scores above 110 points in the free because she is usually immune to under rotating jumps, and receiving wrong-edge penalties on either her lutz or flip. Having graduated from being a newcomer, Kostner is now an experienced veteran and will be entering her 7th world championship in March. Having not had such an excellent season, she won't have as much pressure as skaters like Asada, Kim, and Rochette. Kostner took advantage of a poor short program from Joannie Rochette at the Grand Prix Final to win the bronze medal, despite Carolina having a fairly rough long program herself.
Cons: Kostner has poor technique on her double axel jump, and often breaks flow and telegraphs the entrances to many of her jumping passes. Carolina is not known to be the best spinner, and on that note, she recently lost the European title on the basis that she wasn't given any credit for a combination spin in the long program (she apparently did too many revolutions to count the spin as a sit spin combination, and instead it was counted as an extra combination spin). Kostner has struggled with skating cleanly at the world championships, let alone in both programs. Many consider her silver medal from last year's worlds to be a ludicrous result, and it is rumored that the ISU took a lot of criticism for the result as well.
Outlook: If it is to be assumed that Kim and Asada are to finish 1-2 (which is by no means a guarantee), Joannie Rochette should prove to be Kostner's toughest rival for the bronze medal. Per the results of the season, Rochette looks to have a distinct advantage over Kostner, as Rochette has a 179.973 seasons average as opposed to Kostner's 164.228. Kostner will come into L.A. as somewhat of an outside medal threat, but she should continue to be the only European lady capable of medaling at the world championship, something that could help her out politically. Nerves have impeded her progress on the world stage, which is a real shame. Her 2007 worlds short program showed to everyone that in the event where she is to relax and just skate, the result is sublime.
Part 2 to come shortly.
That is all.
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