Mao Asada Update

The following was reported by Canadian skating commentator PJ Kwong on her twitter: "Mao Asada in press conference today said no change to music in SP and FP and no change in 3As in SP (1) and FP (2)...Tarasova concurred"

*Sigh*

Thoughts On the Ladies Free In Moscow

I've been fairly busy this weekend and have thus not been able to watch all of the individual competitions from the Rostelecom Cup. However, I did watch several performances from the ladies free skate, and I wanted to comment on them because there is much to be said for several of the competitors.


Mao Asada (Japan)




Within a couple of hours of this video being posted there were already a good 60 comments on it. The Japanese view Mao as their star and pride, and for her to have finished off the podium at a Grand Prix event for the first time in her career is a devastating result. Now, Asada will most likely not be able to qualify to the Grand Prix Final. This is of especially sad irony to her because the 2009 Grand Prix Final is being held in the very same arena where she won the gold medal in 2005, when she was not age eligible to compete in the Olympics. The fans have been nearly unanimous with the thought that Asada should leave coach Tatiana Tarasova, and her assistant, Shanetta Folle. If the Japanese Skating Federation had the gall to pull Asada from her former coach, Rafael Artunian, while she was having a good season and leave her without a coach entering into a World Championships, the likelihood that the federation would pull off similar actions in this far more dire situation is high. I will do a post later on analyzing what Asada needs to do to get back to the top, if she can get back to the top, and who she will be attempting to get back to the top with.


Ashley Wagner (USA)



Very nice performance! The program is a bit rough around the edges, and she could stand to soften her arms and hold out her positions longer, but her program has quite a bit of potential. I saw even further improvement with expression from last season, which she particularly demonstrated in the opening part of the program and the part after her double axel in the middle. However, her jump layout is a bit puzzling. She put in a second double axel in place of her triple toe after the halfway point of the program, and I'm guessing that's because she wants to make her opening combination a triple flip+triple toe? Wagner appears to slightly toe-axel her double toes in combination, and I'm skeptical as to whether she could pull off a triple toe as the second jump of a combination. Ashley would be better off sticking to a triple+double combination in the beginning of the program as she has been doing, putting the triple toe back as a solo jump, and replacing her triple lutz with either a triple loop or triple salchow. Her salchow is slightly more consistent than the more valuable loop jump, but either way that would be a better substitute for her lutz, which basically gets -2 GOE before she even takes off. With all that said, this was a great showing here from Wagner and she has put herself in a position to make the Grand Prix Final. She will face a relatively deep field at NHK Trophy, which includes Miki Ando, Alena Leonova, Sarah Meier, and Yukari Nakano.


Alena Leonova (Russia)



I don't particularly like the music cuts, but this is a fun program with good energy and the typical spunk we have come to expect from Leonova. She has put effort into improving her extension over the summer and, while it has improved, it does have a ways to go. Her intended triple toe+triple toe combination at the beginning has failed her now at three successive competitions, and she would perhaps be wise to go back to her triple toe+double axel sequence that she was doing last year. Similar to Ashley Wagner, Leonova also has to be mindful about fixing her flutz, who also received an "e" edge call. Leonova's short program is superior to her long; it is better put together and showcases her speed much more. Leonova, a model of consistency, had a slightly rough long program here, and also at Finlandia Trophy, but perhaps those slightly weaker skates are merely indicative of her desire to not peak now. If Leonova has realistic aspirations of competing at the Grand Prix Final she must not finish lower than 2nd at her next event, NHK Trophy.


Miki Ando (Japan)



Ando looks quite trim and fit this early in the season, having only one mistake in this program to "Cleopatra." I saw this program from a video taken at the recent "Stars, Stripes, and Skates" show and I actually much preferred her performance there than at this competition. Ando didn't seem all that committed to her choreography (not really a surprise), and her slow step sequence was even further marred by her intense usage of arm flailing. I much preferred Cynthia Phaneuf's interpretation (which she will supposedly be reprising this season) of Cleopatra in her long program from last season. I would advise Miki to leave her aspirations of landing the quad (if she has not already) and instead put her triple salchow in place of her double axel after the halfway point. Her triple salchow is always extremely solid, and she could switch the double loops that she does after her triple toe and put them after her triple salchow for more credit. As I said initially, Ando looks very trim but could stand to do more conditioning to get her stamina in check, as her footwork sequence at the end was quite lethargic. She has added more transitions into the beginning of her program, but the musicality is just not there. Ando looks good overall, however, and she, with Asada's slump, has the ideal opportunity to establish herself as Japan's top female skater.


Alissa Czisny (USA)



First off, I must commend Czisny for her short program, which has so far been consistent for her while choreographically appealing. She could demonstrate a little more fire in her short, particularly in her step sequence, but the program is coming along nicely. I cannot say the same for her long program, which I wished she hadn't chosen to keep for another season. The program doesn't really go anywhere, and the score, although beautiful, doesn't evoke any passion from Czisny and it causes her to look tense and nervous while she is skating. She really needs to focus on rotating her jumps, something which has been a longtime issue for her, but it's good to see that she is standing them up much more consistently so far this season. Her lutz jump technique actually looks improved; she still takes a while with the entrance, but the actual jump is getting more spring. She had both of her loops downgraded, but considering that her double axels are fairly problematic, she should try to do them both again at Skate Canada and work on getting more height on them so that they are rotated. Finishing behind Ashley Wagner didn't exactly help Czisny's Olympic chances, but she did score higher than Caroline Zhang and Alexe Gilles did last week in Paris. Czisny will face Laura Lepisto, Mirai Nagasu, Joannie Rochette, Akiko Suzuki, and Caroline Zhang at Skate Canada in November.

TEB Preview-Ladies

Ladies




Mao Asada (Japan)

The Olympic season has finally arrived for the 19-year-old Japanese superstar, who will aim to live up to the expectations of a proud nation hoping that the 2008 world champion will dethrone her top rival, Yu-Na Kim, for the 2010 Olympic gold medal. Asada was formerly under the tutelage of Rafael Artunian, who led her to the 2007 world silver medal and two Japanese national championships. However, after Asada's 2007 nationals win, the Japanese Skating Federation pulled her from Artunian and sent her to the Four Continents and World Championships without a permanent coach. Nevertheless, she went on to win both competitions. The JSF later paired Asada with legendary Russian coach Tatiana Tarasova, who has taken Asada away from the more lyrical style of her youth to a much more dramatic presentation, something many fans have voiced their disapproval over. Asada's time with Tarasova has been hot and cold thus far, with high points that include her win (defeating Yu-Na Kim in her come country) at the 2008 Grand Prix Final, and becoming the second lady to break 200 points at the 2009 World Team Trophy. However, Asada was left off the podium in Los Angeles, despite not skating poorly, and received her lowest long program score since 2006 at the recent Japan Open.

Asada's attempts to land two triple axels in her long program are admirable, but the great risk involved often proves to be much more of a detriment than a reward. She is bound to pop, under rotate, or fall on one of them (exceptions being 2005 Japanese Nationals and 2008 Grand Prix Final), and more often than not, the mistake comes on the second attempt. It was also perplexing when, at the Japan Open, Asada missed her inconsistent triple salchow, trying that jump in favor of her consistently secure triple loop. Practice videos of Asada's jumps aired just prior to the Japan Open showed her to be in fine condition, but her jumps at the Japan Open were labored and were vacant of their usual spring. However, her artistry in her "Bells of Moscow" long program showed a marked improvement from last year's long to "Masquerade Waltz." Asada performed poorly at this event last year, which was her first event of the 2008/2009 season, and cannot afford to do the same this season with a sinificantly deeper field competing. However, it is worth noting that Asada's second competition of the season has historically been significantly stronger than her first.




Elene Gedevanishvili (Georgia)

The Georgian firecracker is wildly talented and wildly inconsistent, having finished 10th at this year's worlds, just after failing to qualify for the free skate at the 2009 Europeans. Gedevanishvili has competed at an Olympics once before, in 2006, where she shockingly qualified to the final group for the free skate and ended up placing 10th. Currently training under 1982 world champion Elaine Zayak in New Jersey, Gedevanishvili is a spunky skater with a solid triple lutz and triple toe+triple toe combination. The 19-year-old Tbilisi native has already competed once since last year's worlds, at the 2009 Moran Memorial, where she finished ahead of Ashley Wagner in the free skate, but behind behind her in the short program and overall. Gedevanishvili has a solid combination of athleticism, flexibility, and personality, but will need to gain consistency and refine her posture and transitions between elements if she is to stick around and skate onto the podium at a future World Championships or Olympic Games. Gedevanishvili's performances in Los Angeles appeared to significantly increase her confidence level, and a strong placement in Paris (preferably in the top five) would allow the judges to have more faith in Gedevanishvili's potentially strong but divergent skating.




Alexe Gilles (USA)

Gilles is one of the tallest ladies figure skaters to have ever made it to the competitive ranks domestically and internationally, standing at 5'7''. This added height allows Gilles to have jumps that are nothing short of breathtaking when landed, particularly her triple lutz, but it also impedes her consistency. Gilles competed at the Colorado Championships this summer, where she defeated two-time U.S. silver medalist Rachael Flatt in the short, but fell behind her in the long program and overall. The bronze medalist from last year's Junior Grand Prix Final and 9th place finisher from the 2009 U.S. Championships, Gilles has the opportunity for this to be somewhat of a breakthrough season, but only somewhat, because it's unlikely she will make the Olympic team. She was granted her first senior Grand Prix assignment, being this competition, in the spring and was eventually added to the Skate America roster when Michelle Kwan announced her decision not to return to competitive skating. A solid finish here will be a tall order for Gilles, as she is competing against seven creditable skaters and five especially formidable ladies (Asada, Kim, Kostner, Nakano, and Zhang). Regardless of placement, this competition will be of tremendous service to Gilles's development, and it will give her an idea of how she stacks up with some of the top female figure skaters in the world.




Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)

The pride of South Korea will take to the ice for the first time since her victory at the 2009 World Championships, where she won her first world title by an astounding 16.42 points, breaking the then existing world record by over eight marks. Kim has been one of the few skaters to have avoided summer competitions, and comes to Paris to debut her new short program to themes from "James Bond" and her long program to Gershwin's "Piano Concerto in F." Orser lauded Kim's new programs in an Icenetwork article back in July; however, Kim critiqued them in a more staid manner in a recent interview, commenting "Though I am under the apprehension that both programs of this season are less gorgeous than those of last season, I will prepare them well and do my best as I have done before."

Although Kim is perhaps not as talented a skater technically speaking as Asada, she is able to work the code of points in her favor more so than her top rival. An example of this is that receives nearly unanimous level fours for her non-jump elements, even while some of her spin and spiral postitions don't achieve the prettiest shapes. The code of points also aids her in the fact that she can switch her problematic triple loop with an easier, quality double axel, which doesn't end up costing her much at all. Kim's speed, detailed choreography, and committed expression enabled her to receive the highest program component marks of every phase of every competition she competed in last season. Kim should continue to bank on those high program component marks, but it is unlikely that one will see Kim score jaw-droppingly high artistic marks, like the 68.40 PCS score she received for her long program at 2009 worlds, especially if she is not to skate a clean short program and have a commanding lead after that phase.

One concept Kim must continue to be mindful about to ensure herself success in Vancouver is to train well, but not overtrain and risk serious injury. Kim's back was a huge source of pain for her prior to the 2007 and 2008 World Championships, both competitions of which she was capable of winning, but did not. Kim peaked herself at exactly the right time last season, but it could be difficult to achieve that masterful pacing again, considering all of the pressure from the people of South Korea and Kim's constant drive to push to envelope further (notice how she claimed that she now aims for 215 points instead of just 200 in the article linked earlier in this commentary). Kim is generally strong, albeit unspectacular, at her first event. While this is precisely how she should desire to perform early in the season, such a performance is not always indicative of the culmination of her year, as was the case with her 2007/2008 season.




Kiira Korpi (Finland)

Korpi missed the Grand Prix portion of the season last year due to injury, but recovered in time to defeat Laura Lepisto at the 2009 Finnish Championships to win her first Finnish senior national title. However, because the criteria for selecting the world team was largely based on the results of the 2009 European Championships, Korpi was not chosen to compete in Los Angeles because of her 5th place finish at that event - the lowest placement of the three Finnish women (Korpi, Lepisto, Susanna Poykio) competing there. Korpi has already gotten her feet wet this season, competing at the Nebelhorn Trophy and Finlandia Trophy, where she placed 2nd and 3rd, respectively. It seems likely that Laura Lepisto will secure one of the two berths available for the Finnish women intending to compete at the 2010 Olympic Games, which means that Korpi will need to fend off current European bronze medalist Susanna Poykio for the second spot. This should prove to be an interesting battle, as both skaters are very comparable in their overall consistency and potential. Poykio may have had the upper hand when it came to last year's Europeans, where Korpi (in the video shown above) took a devastating fall into the boards in her long program, but Poykio didn't exactly show the world that she was of the best use to the Finnish team in Los Angeles with 13th place finish, a placement even lower than Carolina Kostner and her epic long program meltdown. Korpi's competitions in the early part of the season are great opportunities for building confidence, but shouldn't have much impact on whether she is named to the Olympic team or not. Peaking as close to the Olympics as possible will be of the utmost importance for Korpi to return to a second Olympic Games, and to improve on her 16th place finish from 2006.




Carolina Kostner (Italy)

As dream of a city Los Angeles was for Yu-Na Kim, it was a living nightmare for Carolina Kostner. Entering the long program in 5th place, Kostner appeared rattled by Kim's thunderous ovation, as the 22-year-old Italian went on to skate her worst long program in memory, one which contained zero clean triple jumps. The performance dropped Kostner to 12th, understandably prompting her to make a coaching change from Michael Huth to Frank Carroll, who is currently coaching Evan Lysacek and Mirai Nagasu also. Kostner could be the ultimate Olympic dark horse if she is somehow able to gain consistency, confidence, and competitive fire by Vancouver.

Kostner skates with blinding speed, has creditable height on her triples, and is armed with a strong sense of musicality, which, coupled with strong poltical favor from Italian ISU head Ottavio Cinquanta, make it foolish for one to count her out of the medal picture in Vancouver. A recent training video from an Italian television network shows Kostner to have made several changes to her skating in the short time she has had with Frank Carroll, including having more fluid entrances to her flip and loop, and adding the triple toe as a solo jump. She did not show a triple flip+triple toe combination, and given her recent troubles with that combination (having only one out 10 successful triple+triple combination attempts last season), Kostner may be going back to an easier triple flip+double toe combination and putting the triple toe in place of her double axel solo jump in the long program.

Kostner has been wise to let both of her programs be of a more classical genre this season, as classical programs, such as her 2007 Canon short program, aptly suit her artistry. Kostner will debut her short program to Tchaikovsky's "Chopin Nocturne and Violin Concerto" and her long program to Bach's "Air on a G String" and Vivaldi's "Cello Concerto" in Paris. If recent history is any indication, Kostner will not be in strong form here, as her opening performances during several previous seasons have been of particular sloppiness. Little is known of whether Kostner will be able to come back from her Los Angeles catastrophe and skate of quality worthy of making the Olympic podium, but one will be able to start finding out after this weekend. Kostner has many opportunities in her favor to make the Olympic podium; all she has to do is trust herself and take them.




Yukari Nakano (Japan)

Nakano is generally strong early in the season, but was not so at the recent Japan Open, scoring below 100 points with a technically and choreographically fireless long program to "The Firebird." Her debut of her new long program was of particular disappointment to many of Nakano's fans, as she has enhanced her style over the past several seasons, and showed an especially mature presentation in her long program to the ballet score of "Giselle" last season. Nakano has had an impressive career, but one that has had many unerasable disappointments, which include her falling short of an Olympic team that she probably should have been on in 2006 (instead of Miki Ando who finished 15th in Turino), and missing a world championship medal in 2008 in a controversial result. Most recently, Nakano led the field after the short program at the Japanese nationals in December 2008, but ended up skating one of her weakest long programs in memory, dropping to 5th place and being left off of the world championship team.

Nakano has several lovely aspects to her skating, all of which are marred by her greatest trademark and weakness, her leg wrap. Skaters typically cross their legs tightly in the air for a jump, but for whatever peculiar reason, Nakano developed a technique where her left leg crosses over her right thigh, thus creating a distracting line and providing an impediment to the rotation speed of her jumps. She is immune from using that technique on her salchow jump and also on her triple axel, a jump she has not landed cleanly in well over a year.

As far as placements are concerned for this competition, it is worth noting that Nakano improved very quickly at the beginning of last season, when she performed poorly at a minor competition in Japan before going on to skate strongly and place second at Skate America. Nakano was also strong at her opening Grand Prix event in 2007, Skate Canada, and thus could be in for a good competition here despite her poor outing in Japan just weeks ago.




Caroline Zhang (USA)

Zhang will be returning to competition after a raucous off-season, which included two coaching changes (one to Charlene Wong and one back to her original coach, Mingzhu Li), a torn meniscus, and a third place finish (behind Rachael Flatt and Mirai Nagasu) at the Golden West competition last month. Zhang had a bittersweet 2008/2009 season, missing the world championship team while going on to prove in nearly every way possible, whether it be Alissa Czisny's short program meltdown in Los Angeles, Zhang's fourth place finish against a deep field at the Four Continents Championships, or Zhang attaining the top technical score in her free skate at the World Team Trophy, that she deserved to compete in Los Angeles.

Zhang has certain aspects to her skating that are absolutely spellbinding, and other aspects that earn her a plethora of scornful remarks from observers. Zhang can bend her body limitlessly, but skates slower than Carolina Kostner does in slow motion and has an extremely awkward technique on her flip and lutzes, where she twists her hips and kicks her leg up to the ceiling, a technique dubbed the "mule kick" by critics. The main issue with Zhang is that she has been said to have an extremely difficult time breaking out of her confort zone, which is certainly an evident reality when considering the lack of improvement in many aspects of her skating over the past few seasons in terms of speed, transitions, the mule kick, and presentation. Zhang is notorious for flutzing, but was credited with a clean lutz at the Golden West competition. However, she received an "!" call for her flip at that competition, which was also a call she received at this year's U.S. nationals.

Zhang was far from her optimum at her first competition last season, Skate Canada, which seemed to play a factor in how she was scored at nationals relative to Alissa Czisny, who outscored Zhang in the long program despite only landing three triples to Zhang's six. Zhang seems to be marked more favorably internationally than she is domestically, an oddity which she would like to reverse for the time being to earn an Olympic berth. As nationals results are frequently based off of Grand Prix results when it comes to someone being favored on the second mark, two quality performances are necessary for Zhang in Paris.

Predicted Standings-Ladies
Gold: Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
Silver: Mao Asada (Japan)
Bronze: Yukari Nakano (Japan)
4th: Carolina Kostner (Italy)
5th: Caroline Zhang (USA)
6th: Elene Gedevanishvili (Georgia)


That is all.

2009 Trophée Bompard Preview

There are six total Grand Prixs which are contested in six successive weeks in the fall prior to the final. Each skater or pair/dance team is assigned a maximum of two Grand Prixs, and those who have two Grand Prixs are the only ones with feasible chances to qualify to the Grand Prix Final. The top three finishers from last year's worlds do not compete at the same events, and the same is true for the 4th-6th place finishers. Other factors that determine whether a skater receives two Grand Prix assignments include ISU world ranking, season's best total from last year, and placement at last season's Worlds, Grand Prix Final, and Junior Grand Prix Final. Inevitably, the strength of the competition is greater at some events, particularly when skaters become injured and have to withdraw from a competition. Nonetheless, all events are weighted equally. There is a points system alotted to determine who will compete at the Grand Prix Final, set to take place in Tokyo this December. A first place finish receives 15 points, 2nd place 13 points, 3rd place 11 points, 4th place nine, 5th place seven, 6th place five, 7th place four, and 8th place three. The top six skaters or pair/dance teams in each discipline qualify to the final and all competitors enter the competition with a clean sleight.

The 2009 Trophée Bompard will be contested next week in Paris, France, and will serve as the first major competition of the season, with five world champions scheduled to compete. Although the skaters don't wish to be at their optimum at this time, they still want to be in good enough form to place at this competition, and preferably medal, so as to augment their chances of qualifying to the Grand Prix Final. While it is not the end of the earth if a skater doesn't qualify to the Final, it is of his own benefit to do so to allow for greater confidence and political backing at the skater's national championship and onward to the Olympic Games.

In the pairs event, current two-time world champions Aliona Savchenko and Robin Szolkowy of Germany are coming off of a victory at the Nebelhorn Trophy just two weeks ago. However, their shaky long program at that competition means there is much room for improvement at this competition, although looking at the competition it is unlikely the German pair will be defeated regardless of how they skate.

The 2007 world champion Brian Joubert will be competing at his home Grand Prix event for the 2nd straight year, and Joubert is hardly immune to nerves associated with a home crowd, finishing 4th at this event last year and suffering a defeat to relative unknown Florent Amodio at the French Masters competition just recently. Joubert will not be competing against Amodio at this competition, but should face tight competition from 2009 World Junior Champion Adam Rippon, 2008 European Champion Tomas Verner and compatriots Yannick Ponsero (2009 French Champion) and Alban Preaubert (2006 Grand Prix Finalist).

Canada's premier ice dance team, Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir, will be competing for the first time since last year's World Championships, where they edged training partners Meryl Davis and Charlie White by a mere .04. The Canadians were not present at the Grand Prix last season because Virtue underwent surgery on her legs after it was discovered that she has an unusual condition where her legs were unable to expand and contract normally. Virtue and Moir should have an easy victory at this event, although the French will be well represented by Nathalie Pechalat and Fabien Bourzat, who snuck into the top five at last year's World Championships.

The ladies event is often jokingly referred to as the "ladiezzzz event" by fans, but the competition will be anything other than a snooze fest in Paris, where the deepest ladies Grand Prix field among the six events will take the ice. Defending world champion Yu-Na Kim will face off her top rival, Japan's Mao Asada, while in the process debuting her new programs. Asada recently performed her long program at the Japan Open, but will debut her short program in Paris. Italy's Carolina Kostner is making her first competitive appearence since her nightmare free skate in Los Angeles, where she dropped from 5th place in the short program to 12th overall with a disastrous skate. Three-time Japanese world team member Yukari Nakano and current U.S. bronze medalist Caroline Zhang will also look to stir up the standings. The 2006 Olympic silver medalist, Sasha Cohen, was slated to have Trophée Eric Bompard be her return to competition, but she recently withdrew due to tendonitis in her right calf.

In my next post, I will breakdown of the competitiors who will be competing in each discipline, and my predictions as to where each skater will finish in Paris.

That is all.

Final Post of the Season

Unfortunately, I will be temporarily closing down this blog because the season, with the exception of the fairly inconsequential ISU Team Trophy coming up, has terminated. I will plan to post again in October 2009 when the Grand Prix series begins.

I was in attendance at the 2009 World Figure Skating Championships last week for the ladies short, dance free, and ladies free. As you all know the results and happenings of the competition, my own miscellaneous thoughts:

• Yu-Na Kim's performances, especially the SP, were magical. She owned the triple+triple combo and her overall presence was quite comparable to when Katarina Witt was skating. To see her skate well was not really a surprise, as during both the short and long program Kim nailed jump after jump in warm-up, with the exception of falling on the back-end of a triple flip+triple toe towards the end of her long program warm-up. The energy she brought to the ice during her short program was astounding, and had the audience in the palm of her hand throughout the entire skate. There was one moment before she took to her step sequence in the short where the audience cheered for her and her face just lit up; she was clearly having an incredible time out there. Her long was brilliant too, and while it was a wee bit disappointing not to see her go for broke and try the loop, I loved the Ina Bauer into the double axel with the spiral coming out of it. There was quite a bit of national pride at skate amongst the fans in the building; the Korean fans went absolutely nuts when Kim finished but a contingent of Japanese fans sitting behind me didn't even bother to stand after either program of Kim's.
• Joannie Rochette was wonderful, but it's a shame that her long, a performance I was really looking forward to, failed to live up to its potential. Her short was very elegant, especially with the beautiful spiral out of the double axel, and her very precise, nuanced choreography. I actually never witnessed her trying a triple lutz+triple toe in the short program warm-up, so I was surprised to see her stating in an article after the SP had concluded that she was planning on going for it in the competition. Her long warm-up was very good, but her skate was a bit tentative with two relatively major errors. I think what is most impressive about Joannie's skating is her great amplitude on her jumps, and the beautiful use of her arms and her back.
• Miki Ando did two flawless, rotated triple lutz+triple loops during warm-up for her SP, so it was a real shame to see that the one she did in competition was under rotated on the second jump. Miki looks far more impressive live than on TV, as she really has decent posture, great speed, and great height and ice coverage on her triple jumps. While I personally didn't care for her SP, her LP was excellent, and I don't just mean the jumps. While I usually find Miki's skating to revolve around the triple jumps, (BTW she never tried a quad salchow in warm-up), she had great facial expression and I thought her last step sequence was very dynamic and strong. She certainly didn't have the most difficult choreography, but she absolutely sold what she could out of that performance.
• Mao Asada probably had the most disciplined warm-ups of any of the ladies, trying triple jumps right and left. She looked good during her SP warm-up, landing triple flip+triple loop and a couple triple lutzes. Unfortunately, towards the end of the warm-up the lutz came away from her, stepping out of one attempt and doubling another. The latter mistake came back when she skated her program, but otherwise she was quite lovely. The thing that differentiates Mao so much from Kim is that she skates like no one is watching her, whereas Kim skates like she wants to bring the house down. Asada, while very beautiful, had a sense of predictability in her programs this year that made her less exciting to watch than Kim in my opinion. During the warm-up for her long, Mao landed two beautiful triple axels, both unquestionably rotated and cleanly landed. While her first 3A in her long was fine, she seemed to be too far back in the air to cleanly complete the second. While I don't despise her "Masquerade" long as some other fans do, I think that the major weakness of the program is Mao's absence of a slow section. The choreography is difficult, but unfortunately she makes it look difficult because she doesn't have any time to rest. Her step sequence was the best choreographic passage of the program; very dynamic, intricate, and it went with the music. Kim and Asada had no collisions or near-collisions during either warm-up; if anything Asada was intentionally avoiding Kim.
• Rachael Flatt's artistry is entirely in her face. What is lacking with her is that her arms are fairly stiff, and she holds a lot of tension in her shoulders and upper back, thus causing her to look shorter. It was particularly obvious in the short, when Joannie skated directly after Rachael, with Joannie having a really straight back and Rachael being more hunched over. With that said, Rachael was very wise to switch her long program back to last year's "Romantic Rhapsody" because that one had superior choreography and was a superior music choice as well. Rachael should absolutely be commended for her continued strength as a competitor, and her long program seemed to get stronger as it went. Her triple+triple is an area for concern, however, because she missed it both times in competition. She completed one 3/3 in the short program and long program warm-ups, but both times the triple toe was noticeably under rotated.
• Laura Lepisto has improved her artistry; I believe I noticed more emotion and presence than at Europeans and other previous competitions. Her weakness in presentation, like Flatt, is her relatively stiff arms. She landed a beautiful triple toe+triple toe during the SP warm-up but only did a triple toe+double toe during the competition. She has nice technique, and is a very clean skater who I will look forward to seeing more of in the future.
• Alena Leonova was most enjoyable to see. I was not a happy soul when she beat Caroline Zhang and Ashley Wagner for the world junior title, but all of that disappointment went away when I saw her short program. Sometimes, you just like to see a skater who isn't so technically polished, but really fights for everything and who clearly enjoys skating. She really just looked like she was at the World Championship for the first time and she was going to enjoy every bit of it. Her spirals and spin positions are unquestionably in need of improvement, but her jumps are quite solid (a slight exception being the lutz) and she reminded be quite a bit of Stephanie Rosenthal from 2006 Nationals in terms of her ability to show that she enjoys skating.
• Fumie Suguri's skating, sadly, made me wish Yukari Nakano had been there instead. While Suguri did skate with some palpable fire in her short program, her Otonal long program was quite a festival of boredom. However, technically she was pretty strong, and her soft landings to her jumps are absolutely one of the strongest points to her skating, and such a quality was something that not many of the other girls had. She and Ando came very late to the SP warm-up, and Suguri herself was marked with going overtime by a second during her SP. I was looking at the clock as Suguri finished her SP. She reached her ending pose at 2:50, but the clock strangely went on an extra second to 2:51, thus incurring a deduction for being overtime.
• It was great to see Sarah Meier back in action, and I thoroughly impressed at how steady and relatively fit she looked considering her injuries and lack of training time. She looked very solid throughout her warm-ups and competition skates, and I particularly enjoyed her long program (the same LP she did last year), which had a particularly nice step sequence.
• Elene Gedevanishvilli has great spark and energy to her skating, and had a particularly nice triple lutz and triple toe+triple toe combination in her long program. She has excellent speed, just needs to polish her positions and improve her consistency.
• Alissa Czisny looked excellent during the SP warm-up, not missing a thing. After her triple lutz+double toe in the short, I thought we were in for an excellent program until Czisny held on to her triple flip entrance edge way too long (and thus too close to the boards), and she tried to get her weight forward to compensate for the lack of room she had, thus ending up falling. Her long program warm-up was also strong, landing the triple toe+double toe+double toe that she didn't do in her actual skate. Czisny landed two clean triple lutz+double toe combinations in her long, in addition to a triple flip. Her triple loop was noticeably under rotated, and was rightfully downgraded. While Czisny is a very elegant skater, she really does lack speed in comparison with the top women. I think that could play a part into why her jumps are so wonky, considering that she often goes into her jumps with fairly slow and tentative entrances.
• According to Philip Hersh's latest article, Carolina Kostner was not injured and this is most surprising. Kostner really needs to invigorate her training habits, because in the warm-up for the long program, I looked at her fairly closely and never saw a triple+triple attempt or a triple lutz attempt. I also didn't see a triple+triple attempt during her short, although if I remember correctly she did do a clean lutz during the warm-up. Her PCS score of 58.48 for her long program was absolutely absurd, although thankfully inconsequential to the final outcome. I actually was very disappointed when Kostner skated so poorly in the long, because I find her "Dumky Trio" long to be very elegant, yet fiery.

Well, that will be all for now. Thank you for reading my blog and make sure to check back for frequent updates beginning in October for what should prove to be an exciting, dramatic Olympic season.
That is all.

2009 World Figure Skating Championships-Ladies Preview

The 2009 World Figure Skating Championships will truly be a world competition, with female skaters from Japan, South Korea, Canada, United States, Finland, and Italy expected to contend for the top ranks at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, California, beginning on March 27th. The former powers of women's figure skating, the United States and Russia, have since demolished. But where popularity and success of the sport has declined there, in Asia it has done nothing but blossom. Prior to 2005, South Korea and figure skating would never be placed in the same sentence. Four years later, Yu-Na Kim has become one of the most recognizable athletes in Korean history, and with that, figure skating has become a colossally popular sport in that nation. Japan began to seriously follow the sport when Midori Ito emerged as a world champion in 1989, going on to win Olympic silver in 1992. After a drought of talent, the prospects for Japanese figure skating looked benign when several veterans and newcomers started accumulating success around 2002. However, it wasn't until a young, dainty girl by the name of Mao Asada started attempting triple axels at the age of 13, when Japan knew it had found its next ice queen. Heading into these World Championships, the two skaters will continue their electrifying rivalry to determine who is the best ladies figure skater in the world. Kim, expressive and dramatic, and Asada, light and airy, will be the contenders to beat at these World Championships and at the Olympic Games next February.



However, just because ladies skating has been dominated by the "Asian Invasion" doesn't mean that it ends there. Joannie Rochette of Canada will have something to say about a 1-2 finish for Kim and Asada, as she has beat Asada twice this season. Carolina Kostner of Italy split the two skaters at last year's World Championships, but that time it was Kim who had to settle for 3rd while battling a nagging back injury. The story lines fail to just end at who will receive gold, silver, and bronze, however. Three countries will be battling each other to secure a high enough finish (a combined placement of 13 from the two skaters of that country) to get three Olympic berths in 2010. Finland and Canada could realistically do without a third berth, but the United States would love more than anything to snatch it. With there being an immensely deep pool of talented yet inconsistent U.S. ladies skaters, and also adding in the potential comebacks of Sasha Cohen or Michelle Kwan, a third Olympic spot would be most desirable for the U.S. The reasoning is such that because all of the U.S. girls are roughly on the same plane in terms of their medal prospects, it doesn't hurt to send one more girl who may just have a Paul Wylie-esque Olympics.



With all of that said, one can never forget how truly prestigious the World Figure Skating Championships are. Skaters should be thrilled that they have even made it to Worlds, as several world-class skaters will not be able to make such a statement. Notable competitors absent from the world championship include Kiira Korpi, Kimmie Meissner, Mirai Nagasu, Yukari Nakano, Akiko Suzuki, Ashley Wagner, and Caroline Zhang. The cold, harsh reality is such that even if some of these aforementioned names will be in Vancouver, it will come at the expense of another skater who is equally as deserving.



Skaters Featured In Post

Miki Ando (Japan)
Mao Asada (Japan)
Alissa Czisny (USA)
Rachael Flatt (USA)
Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
Carolina Kostner (Italy)


Laura Lepisto (Finland)
Sarah Meier (Switzerland)
Cynthia Phaneuf (Canada)
Susanna Poykio (Finland)
Joannie Rochette (Canada)
Fumie Suguri (Japan)


Red indicates commentary of skater is featured in part 1 of post
Blue indicates commentary of skater is featured in part 2 of post






Miki Ando (Japan)


Expectations Coming In: Miki Ando has had an unsteady season thus far, finishing 6th out of six skaters at the Grand Prix Final and 3rd at the Japanese Nationals, barely finishing high enough to make the world team. She is a former world champion from 2007, but has seldom skated to that level since.


Pros: At her peak, Miki Ando has the capability to shove past her competitors with remarkable skates. The three best overall competitions of Miki's career: 2006 Skate America, 2007 World Championships, and the 2008 Japanese Nationals, all came when Miki wasn't favored to win. Considered an underdog in L.A., Miki could place highly with triple-triple combinations, an improved long program to the music of Camille Saint-Seans' "Organ Symphony," and a possible quadruple salchow jump. Ando will be one of the most experienced ladies competing in Los Angeles, and over the years has made noticeable improvement in her non-jump elements, notably her spins and footwork. Miki's total average score this season, a 165.85, is the 4th highest among the women competing in L.A. and is higher than that of last year's silver medalist, Carolina Kostner.


Cons: Ando has only been credited with landing one triple-triple combination among five attempts this season. Over a span of four competitions, Ando had a total of 15 jumps downgraded, and her possibly attempting a quadruple salchow in Los Angeles could backfire if the jump gets downgraded and if the element has a faulty landing. Ando was heavily criticized for her lack of artistry during CBC's coverage of the Grand Prix Final, with the normally benevolent Tracy Wilson commenting during her final step sequence, "This is the first time it's feeling to me [in the program] that she's starting to feel the music." While her PCS marks hover in the 55-56 range in the long program, they are not to the level of the 60+ PCS marks that go to the long programs of Mao Asada, Yu-Na Kim, and Joannie Rochette. The validity of Miki's ticket to L.A. has been a hot debate amongst skating fans, as many feel that Akiko Suzuki was under marked at Japanese Nationals and thus should have finished ahead of Ando's sub par performance.


Outlook: Ando's decision to include the quad should come on the basis of how her other elements, specifically jumps, are looking. Ando's scoring sheets have been littered with "<"s, although Miki is a skater who only needs to rotate her jumps ever so slightly more to get full credit, as opposed to a true chronic under rotater like Mirai Nagasu. If she still feels that she is at risk for receiving downgrades and lower levels (she received two level 2s during her free at GPF), than Ando might as well try the quad, as she would have nothing to lose to try such a daunting skill (other than injury). While much is up in the air regarding Ando's potential placement, there is one thing that is for certain. Miki does her best when she is the underdog. Making the world team as the third-ranked Japanese skater, and doing so by only .11 of a point, makes her exactly that.



Mao Asada (Japan)


Expectations Coming In: Asada is the reigning world champion, winning the title after suffering a horrific fall on a triple axel attempt and going on to skate brilliantly throughout the rest of the program. She has had an up-and-down season, winning the Grand Prix Final but only placing 3rd at the Four Continents Championships. With her recent loss in Vancouver, she will not be the favorite to win in Los Angeles.


Pros: The only woman at the World Championships who will even attempt a triple axel, Mao takes it a step further, attempting two in her long program. She landed both triple axels cleanly at the Grand Prix Final, going on to defeat Yu-Na Kim in her home country. Asada is known to be an exceptionally complete skater, with tremendous jumps, spins, footwork, and artistry. Asada is capable of landing triple-triple combinations in both programs, and no longer receives a deduction for flutzing. Asada also looks toward high GOEs for her jump combinations, where she often adds a Tano-style arm to her double jumps.


Cons: Asada performed poorly (by her standards) at the recent Four Continents Championships, and was rumored to be suffering a knee injury. Asada has not been credited with one triple-triple combination since last year's worlds, and out of seven triple axel attempts this season only four were ratified. Turning away from the technical standpoint of Asada's skating, her long program to the music of Aram Khachaturian's "Masquerade" has been criticized as bleak and desolate. Unfortunately, the program highlights Asada's weakness in not being able to relate to the audience as much as Yu-Na Kim, and her PCS marks were lower than Kim at the Grand Prix Final in both programs. In terms of averages this season, Asada's total score is 180.947, a full 7.86 points behind Kim's total average and only .975 ahead of Rochette's.


Outlook: If past history means anything, Asada will look improved from her Four Continents showing. Earlier this season, Asada improved dramatically between her season opener at Trophee Eric Bombard to the NHK Trophy, which was only two weeks later. Mao has performed very well at the last two world championships, and just to show those who wish to write her off, Asada still scored a very respectable 109.47 at this season's Trophee Eric Bombard, after what was undoubtedly one of the weakest skates in her career. However, Kim's victory in Vancouver does mean that Asada will have an uphill battle to defend her title. In that sense, a little reverse psychology could save the day. Midori Ito was overwhelmed by the monstrosity of pressure from the Japanese media at the 1992 Olympics, and she was entering the games as the 1989 World Champion and having finished off the podium at the 1991 Worlds. Considering how insufferable it could be for a two-time and reigning world champion heading into the Olympics, it may actually be a blessing in disguise if Asada is not crowned champion of the world in 2009.




Alissa Czisny (USA)


Expectations Going In: Czisny has showcased creditable improvement this year, with that rise meeting with a U.S. National title in January. However, her win in Cleveland was considered extremely debatable, mainly due to her substantially higher PCS marks in the long program. Going on to Four Continents Championships, two relatively shaky skates put her in 9th place overall, and will need to do much better to help assure the United States of three Olympic spots.


Pros: Take away the jumps, and Czisny is one of the finest skaters in the world. Armed with legs that extend to tomorrow and a quiet, serene elegance, Alissa has worked with Brian Boitano and his former coach, Linda Leaver, to improve her jumping technique and her ability to focus in competition. Alissa's inordinate spins, posture, and musicality have made it clear that if nothing else, the judges do still reward her with decent marks even if she skates less than lovely. This is evidenced by the fact that despite a flawed long program at the Four Continents Championships, she scored higher PCS marks than Cynthia Phaneuf, Caroline Zhang, Rachael Flatt, and Akiko Suzuki in that portion of the competition.


Cons: Many are fearful that Alissa's past inconsistencies will continue in California, where arguably the biggest test of her career will be placed. Czisny does not have a triple salchow in her jumping repertoire, and occasionally receives an "!" edge penalty on her triple flip. Czisny only has a 54% hit record of her triple jumps this season ( statistic doesn't include the summer B-competitions that she attended), and this is only with Alissa attempting five triples in the long program, when most of the other top ladies are doing six or seven. Czisny's clean short at the U.S. Nationals was the first time she had done a faultless short in a major competition since 2005 Skate Canada. Czisny's total score at the Four Continents Championships was her international seasons best score, where she still finished a disappointing 9th.


Outlook: Many think that the ship has already sailed regarding the United States' hope for three ladies spots in Vancouver next year, and the reason why is because Caroline Zhang wasn't on board. Czisny's worth as national champion, in addition to her spot on the world team, weakened when Zhang outscored Czisny by 11.41 points at 4CCs, putting Zhang's seasons best at 5th while putting Czisny's at 14th. Despite all of her past troubles and the controversy, Czisny will be going to Los Angeles to compete at her 2nd world championship, and if she does precisely what she didn't do in Tokyo at her first world championship (where she finished in 15th place) she should do just fine. First off, a clean short is a must. If nothing else, a clean short should get her into the final group for the free skate, which would help boost her PCS marks in the long. As far as the long program is concerned, Czisny has hinted that she will upgrade the content of her long program. The safest and most intelligent way to do this would probably be to replace one of her double axels with a triple loop. The loop has been her steadiest jump this season, and considering that even her double axels aren't particularly solid, she would have little to lose by making such a change. While Czisny's potential placement is still very much unclear, the judges have reiterated their appreciation for her elegant line and will reward her if she is to skate well.




Rachael Flatt (USA)



Expectations Going In: Flatt has lost the two U.S. titles by meager margins, but looking at the overall results this season she is going to worlds as the top American. Rachael is generally known to peak when it is most important, and she is a very strong jumper. However, her artistry, spins and speed take her out of immediate medal contention.



Pros: Flatt has triple-triple combinations planned in both programs, and has done seven clean triples in her long program more than once. Her choice to revert back to last year's long program to Mathieu's "Romantic Rhapsody" looks to be a good one in terms of boosting that critical second mark. Flatt peaked late in the season last year, arguably delivering the best skates of her career to win the world junior title ahead of Caroline Zhang and Mirai Nagasu. With many of her rivals known to fall apart in one way or another when the pressure is on, Flatt's consistency could dodge challenges from her fellow competitors to ensure a strong placement, as is her intelligent working of the code of points.


Cons: Flatt is heavily reliant on the triple jumps to get her a competitive score, but unfortunately Rachael has only managed one successful triple-triple combination this entire season. Flatt doesn't lengthen through her spine as she skates, thus creating the image of pore posture. Among other things, Flatt has been widely criticized for her generic programs, lack of speed, and unpolished positions in her spins and spirals. At the recent Four Continents Championships, Flatt's PCS marks in the long reflected these aforementioned areas that are in need of improvement, only scoring 51.04, the 9th highest PCS total of the free skate. Rachael has also received several "!" and even "e" wrong-edge deductions for her lutz.



Overall: Flatt's overall finish in Los Angeles could have quite a bit to do with how skaters like Ando, Lepisto, Phaneuf, and Suguri perform. Unfortunately, Rachel's scoring potential is not of top caliber because she lacks an overall signature to her skating, and she is not exempt to downgrades and wrong-edge deductions. While a medal may not be forthcoming, a high placement around 5th-7th could be there for her if she skates at her apex in California, and if other competitors open the door Rachael will be sure to walk through. Flatt is in many ways the polar opposite of Czisny, as Rachael is consistent yet unpolished whereas the reverse is true for Alissa. The two are capable of placing a combined 13th to get three Olympic spots, and Flatt will look to make as little mistakes as possible to take the pressure off of Alissa to complete the task at hand.






Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)



Expectations Going In: Kim was a favorite to win the last two world championships, but a back injury impeded her abilities, thus forcing her to settle for bronze in both cases. An astoundingly popular athlete in her home country, Kim hopes that the third time will be the charm in Los Angeles. Despite a loss at home during the Grand Prix Final, her victory at the Four Continents Championships against a deep field cements her status as favorite at worlds.



Pros: Blessed with immaculate security on her jumps, improved spins and spirals and a true sense of musicality in her programs, the two-time Grand Prix Final Champion has the highest total average score this season, a 188.805. While Asada may have the advantage in quantity, Kim will make that up with the quality of her elements, with +1 and +2 GOEs frequently flocking to her triple-triple combinations, triple lutzes, and double axels. Her PCS marks in the long program have not been below 60 for the entirety of this season, and she is less prone to getting downgrades and wrong-edge deductions than many of her other top competitors. Kim holds the two highest scores in the short program (72.24 and 71.95) and the highest free skate mark (133.70) in the history of the current judging system.


Cons: Despite winning the 2009 Four Continents title with room to spare, Kim did have notable mistakes in the long program, falling and under rotating her triple loop and also under rotating her triple lutz. The triple loop has been Kim's chief weakness throughout her career, and has not landed the jump in competition since November 2007. Kim's back has been a source of injury for her, and despite being a strong favorite for the title the last two years, she was injured and suffered errors in the long (2007) and the short (2008), that prevented her from winning. Yu-Na is not the most technically polished skater out there, which is evident in many of her spin and spiral positions.


Outlook: The first task that is in order for Kim to win her first world title is to say farewell to the triple loop. Practise reports indicate that Kim can do the jump, and she has landed it twice in competition, but it has become an enormous psychological obstacle for her. Luckily, switching a double axel should save the day, as she has done at many past championships. Her double axel in place of the triple loop in the long at this season's Grand Prix Final received a +1.80 GOE, thus receiving a total of 5.30 points for the element. The most Kim has ever received for a triple loop is 5.50 points, so realistically the risk isn't worth the reward. Where Kim will look to blast through her competition is in the short program, where a score of 70 is possible. However, leading after the short is also a double-edged sword, as proven with her faulty long programs after being in the lead at the 2007 Worlds and 2008 Grand Prix Final. A few minor errors aside, Kim looks healthy and fit this season and Brian Orser will look to peak her at just the right time so that the 2009 world title will be hers for the taking.




Carolina Kostner (Italy)


Expectations Going In: Kostner has two world medals, a bronze from 2005 and a silver from 2008. Kostner is expected to be sturdy medal threat in L.A., although the top spot on the podium will continue to be elusive for the Italian. Kostner has not had the best season, as evidenced by her losing the European title to Laura Lepisto. Thus, a world medal of any color will be considered an accomplishment.

Pros: With speed that puts Apollo Anton Ohno to shame, Kostner is a fine jumper and is known for her excpetional spiral and step sequences. Kostner frequently scores above 110 points in the free because she is usually immune to under rotating jumps, and receiving wrong-edge penalties on either her lutz or flip. Having graduated from being a newcomer, Kostner is now an experienced veteran and will be entering her 7th world championship in March. Having not had such an excellent season, she won't have as much pressure as skaters like Asada, Kim, and Rochette. Kostner took advantage of a poor short program from Joannie Rochette at the Grand Prix Final to win the bronze medal, despite Carolina having a fairly rough long program herself.

Cons: Kostner has poor technique on her double axel jump, and often breaks flow and telegraphs the entrances to many of her jumping passes. Carolina is not known to be the best spinner, and on that note, she recently lost the European title on the basis that she wasn't given any credit for a combination spin in the long program (she apparently did too many revolutions to count the spin as a sit spin combination, and instead it was counted as an extra combination spin). Kostner has struggled with skating cleanly at the world championships, let alone in both programs. Many consider her silver medal from last year's worlds to be a ludicrous result, and it is rumored that the ISU took a lot of criticism for the result as well.

Outlook: If it is to be assumed that Kim and Asada are to finish 1-2 (which is by no means a guarantee), Joannie Rochette should prove to be Kostner's toughest rival for the bronze medal. Per the results of the season, Rochette looks to have a distinct advantage over Kostner, as Rochette has a 179.973 seasons average as opposed to Kostner's 164.228. Kostner will come into L.A. as somewhat of an outside medal threat, but she should continue to be the only European lady capable of medaling at the world championship, something that could help her out politically. Nerves have impeded her progress on the world stage, which is a real shame. Her 2007 worlds short program showed to everyone that in the event where she is to relax and just skate, the result is sublime.


Part 2 to come shortly.

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Grand Prix Final Preview-Ladies

The Grand Prix Final is the culmination of the Grand Prix series, which consists of six events around the globe where skaters earn points based on how well they finished. The top six finishers will now advance to the Grand Prix Final, which will take place in Goyang City, South Korea.This event will serve as somewhat of a preview for the upcoming World Championships and the Olympic Games in 2010. Despite the fact that no American lady has qualified, American skating fans should still follow the results of this event closely because the six ladies that qualified (Yu-Na Kim, Joannie Rochette, Mao Asada, Carolina Kostner, Miki Ando, Yukari Nakano) are who the two American ladies that are sent to worlds this year will have to face in their quest to qualify three spots for the Olympic Games in Vancouver. With a combined placing of 13 required to get those three spots, this means that at least one American has to crack the top six.As for the ladies competing, this competition will serve a particular importance to Yu-Na Kim, who is looking to win her 3rd consecutive Grand Prix Final while competing for the first time in a major international competition in her home country.




Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)

Season Bests: SP: 69.50(SA) FS: 128.11(COC) Total: 193.45(SA)

Pros: Yu-Na is entering the Grand Prix Final having won the last two years. She owns the highest scores marked this season in both the short and long programs, and is also the world-record holder for scores in the short (71.95) and the long (133.7). Kim's technical marks are aided by the fact that she seldom receives any wrong-edge calls or downgrades on any of her jumps, which is a particular edge she will look to capitalize on over Mao Asada. Kim's consistency is also admirable in that she hasn't fallen once this season thus far. Kim's program component scores (PCS) are of top caliber because of her marvelous expression and speed across the ice.

Cons: Unlike any Japanese, Canadian, or American skaters who have rivals within their respective countries to share all of the pressure being weighted down on them, Yu-Na Kim is the lone hope for a world or Olympic medal in any figure skating discipline. A Korean newspaper declared, "Figure skating star Kim Yu-Na is well on her way to dominating her sport, leaving her rivals in the dust." Being expected to win from one's own country has given skaters grief in the past, examples during the Olympic Games include Midori Ito in 1992 and Michelle Kwan in 1998 and 2002. Kim withdrew from the Four Continents Championships last year due to back problems, and this will be the first time she will have to face that pressure from her own country in a major international meet. On the technical side, Kim received her first wrong-edge call just recently at Cup of China for her triple flip taking off of an outside edge. Kim doesn't have a quad or triple axel in her arsenal, and her triple loop has been a particularly inconsistent jump for her to muster.

Outlook: How Kim does here could foreshadow how she does in the Olympics, as she will face enormous pressure while competing at home at this meet. Kim is more than capable of beating her fellow competitors at the Grand Prix Final, but could have a tough time doing so if Asada busts out two triple axels, or if Ando decides to throw her quad. However, based on the scores that the ladies have received this season, and taking into consideration how strong a competitor Kim is when healthy, Yu-Na is the definite favorite for a 3rd consecutive Grand Prix Final victory, something only Irina Slutskaya has done.




Joannie Rochette (Canada)

Season Bests: SP: 64.74(SC) FS: 124.15(SC) Total: 188.89(SC)

Pros: Joannie has remarked on her website on how much her confidence has improved over the last couple of years, and the results she has been getting as of late prove that. Wins at Skate Canada (beating Kostner), and at Trophee Eric Bombard (beating Asada) have stated her claim to be one of the top ladies figure skaters in the world. Joannie has scored the second highest SP of this season, and that was without her triple-triple. Rochette is also the only skater besides Kim and Asada to have broken 60 in the PCS scores so far this season for the long program.

Cons: Joannie has yet to medal in a world championship and hasn't qualified to the Grand Prix Final since 2004, where she finished with a bronze medal. From a technical standpoint, Rochette lags slightly behind because of the fact that she has yet to have her triple flip+triple toe combination ratified, and also because her triple-triple in the long is "only" a sequence. Silly mistakes like popping her loop or singling an axel, while not fatal, are not going to crack the top spot on the podium barring major errors from other skaters.

Outlook: Joannie has had a terrific start to her season, but how she will ride that early momentum remains to be seen. With scores higher than Nakano, Ando, and Kostner, there is no question that Rochette is capable of a podium finish next week. However, if Joannie is gunning for a top two finish, than those little mistakes have to disappear immediately, with the opposite being true for her elusive triple-triple combination. On message boards, it is a common sight to find people saying along the lines of "Ladies skating is bleak other than the likes of Kim, Asada, or Rochette." It seems as though people are accepting that Rochette has joined Kim and Asada as the top podium threats for the ladies, and with Rochette's PCS marks going up, it seems as though the judges are viewing her in the same regard.



Mao Asada (Japan)

Season Bests: SP: 64.64(NHK) FS: 126.49(NHK) Total: 191.13(NHK)

Pros: Looking at jump content alone, Asada has the potential to show no mercy to her competitors with two triple axels (one of them in combination with a Tano-double toe), triple-triple combinations in both program, an improved triple lutz now taking off of an outside edge, and a reinstated triple salchow. Despite a disappointing outing at Trophee Eric Bombard, Mao looked like a completely different skater at the NHK Trophy just two weeks later, winning the competition by over 23 points. Mao's scores at NHK, while excellent, could've been even higher had she inserted her 3-3 in the long program and fully-rotated her 3-3 in the short and 3A in the long.

Cons: The last sentence written in the pros section is exactly what Mao's con is, which is getting jumps downgraded even if they look stellar in real time. Some have commented on how her LP jump composition is puzzling, considering that she is doing two triple axels when she is not consistent when even completing and fully-rotating one, and that she has abandoned the triple lutz in the long program for a triple salchow, when the scores for the two elements would be roughly the same even if Mao's lutz were to be marked down because of a wrong-edge takeoff. Mao has struggled in the past with consistency (and particularly at the Grand Prix Final), with that consistency being a key factor into why she has lost the event the last two years.

Outlook: Mao Asada will face off Yu-Na Kim in their first competition together since last year's Worlds. Asada shouldn't have a problem competing in her rival's homeland, after all Asada skated one of her best overall competitions at the Four Continents Championships last year prior to winning her first world title. If everyone were to go absolutely clean, Asada would likely win, but subtle errors like downgrades, wrong-edge takeoffs, and just plain old inconsistency could lead to Asada having to play bridesmaid for the third time in her career at this event.




Carolina Kostner (Italy)

Season Bests: SP: 57.02(COR) FS: 113.70(COR) Total: 170.72

Pros: Kostner shook off the pressure of competing at home by winning the bronze medal at the Grand Prix Final last year in Torino, Italy. Kostner's assets as a skater are that she rotates her jumps, seldom has any wrong-edge calls, and has triple-triple combinations planned for both programs. Kostner's great speed, musicality, and posture make for world-class PCS marks. Many believed that her extremely controversial silver medal at last year's World Championships was aided by political favor from the ISU by being the only European lady capable of meddling and upsetting an Asian sweep.

Cons: Kostner's inconsistency is evident in many of her triple jumps, especially the lutz. Without a triple axel or a second triple lutz in the long program, Kostner has no room for error for hopes of a top 2 (or even top 3) finish at this final or a world championship/Olympic Games. Mistakes such as double footing, putting her hands down, or popping/falling out of jumps are common errors of Kostner, which make Carolina arguably the least consistent of the six women competing in this final.

Outlook: Kostner has the lowest seasons best for her short program and for total score among the six ladies competing at the final. While those scores don't necessarily indicate that Carolina is incapable of medaling in Korea, she needs to be in much better form than she has been in her first two Grand Prixs of the season in order for such a thing to happen. Taking her technical mark from last year's World Championship free skate, a 61.88, Carolina received negative GOEs on five elements. If say she were to have a flawless skate and substitute those five negative GOEs with base marks, her technical mark would've been a 67.42. While extremely high, Kim, Asasa, and Ando have broken 70 for technical marks in the long before so that score isn't anything groundbreaking(although for Carolina it would be). Looking at the technical marks of that particular skate, there was nothing that was particularly suspicious about any of the GOEs. While Kostner may not have the scoring potential of Kim or Asada, her scores tend to not drop that low because she makes the types of errors that she can somewhat get away with in this COP, rather than receiving downgrades which would hurt her even more.




Miki Ando

Season Bests: SP: 59.30(COC) LP: 111.58(COC) Total: 170.88 (COC)

Pros: Ando is one of the strongest jumpers in the world. After injury forced her to withdraw from the World Championships midway through her free skate, she has come back this season with a vengeance. Among the elements in her bag of tricks include a triple lutz+triple loop combo, generally consistent skating, and a possible quad salchow. Ando continues to practice the quad jump, and an increase of base value for the element could motivate Ando to do it in the Grand Prix Final. A successful attempt would help her medal chances significantly.

Cons: Over the last couple of years it seemed as though one of Ando's strengths was the fact that her jumps were so rarely downgraded, which made it interesting that the back end of three out of the four 3-3 combos she has done so far this year have been downgraded. In addition to that, two of her triple flips were downgraded at Cup of China. Ando's PCS marks were especially disappointing at Skate America, where she only received 52.16 in the long program(out of a possible 80).

Outlook: Ando's PCS marks were very inconsistent between her two events, her SP PCS went from a 28.52 at SA down to a 27.04 at COC, whereas her FS PCS marks went up from a 52.16 at SA to a 56.40 at COC. Overall, Ando's scores have been a bit disappointing this season, especially in comparison with someone who is also looking to have a hold on third place like Rochette. However, those scores could rise substantially if Ando can rotate her 3-3s and put in her quad. Easier said than done, but Ando would like a strong skate here to prevent any chance of her being left off the world team, with Fumie Suguri and Akiko Suzuki coming on strong and looking to steal one of those coveted tickets to L.A.




Yukari Nakano (Japan)

Season Bests: SP: 57.46(SA) FS: 115.02(SA) Total:172.53(SA)

Pros: Formerly a jumping bean without a hint of artistry, Nakano has transformed into a mature, expressive artist with solid jumps and spins. Yukari is the only skater besides Mao Asada that is capable of a consistent triple axel, being credited with landing the jump three times in international competition last season. Many were shocked when Nakano failed to medal at the last World Championships after a seemingly flawless performance in the free skate. Nakano is known for her consistency in competition and has participated in the Grand Prix final twice, winning a bronze in 2005.

Cons: Nakano's infamous leg wrap on her flip and lutz holds down her GOEs on those elements, and also doesn't do a triple loop jump. Those two reasons prevent Nakano from doing consistent 3-3s, and thus doesn't currently have any in her jump repertoire. Yukari has yet to attempt her triple axel this year, and tends to be a victim of downgrades. At the last world championships, two downgraded jumps (one of them being the triple axel) did the trick to keep Nakano off the podium. Nakano also has had issues with her short program this season, scoring only 54.82 at NHK.

Outlook: Miss consistency is more than deserving of a trip to the final, but has yet to show off her top form because of the absence of a triple axel and mistakes in her short program during her two Grand Prixs this season. Fifth last year, Nakano will likely need a clean triple axel to pass Rochette and co. for a bronze medal (assuming Kim and Asada skate to their potential and finish 1-2 in either order). Like Ando, Nakano is looking for a strong showing here to maintain her top 3 status in Japan to get another trip to Worlds.


Podium Prediction

Gold: Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
Silver: Mao Asada (Japan)
Bronze: Joannie Rochette (Canada)

4th: Miki Ando (Japan)
5th: Yukari Nakano (Japan)
6th: Carolina Kostner (Italy)

That is all.