2010 U.S. Figure Skating Championships Mens SP Live Commentary

Starting Order


Warmup Group #1
1 Wesley Campbell, Nashville FSC
2 Johnny Weir, SC of New York Inc
3 Douglas Razzano, Coyotes SC of Arizona
4 Parker Pennington, Winterhurst FSC
5 Jeremy Abbott, Detroit SC




Warmup Group #2
6 Michael Solonoski, SC of New York Inc
7 Ryan Bradley, Broadmoor SC
8 Jonathan Cassar, Detroit SC
9 Alexander Johnson, Braemar-City of Lakes FSC
10 Keegan Messing, Alaska Assoc of Figure Skaters
11 Grant Hochstein, St Clair Shores FSC




Warmup Group #3
12 Stephen Carriere, Skating Club of Boston
13 Shaun Rogers, SC of Wilmington Inc
14 Dennis Phan, All Year FSC
15 Daniel Raad, Park FSC
16 Richard Dornbush, All Year FSC
17 Evan Lysacek, DuPage FSC




Warmup Group #4
18 Brandon Mroz, Broadmoor SC
19 Armin Mahbanoozadeh, Washington FSC
20 Andrew Gonzales, All Year FSC
21 Adam Rippon, SC of New York Inc
22 Jason Wong, Skating Club of Boston
23 Tommy Steenberg, SC of Northern Virginia




9:02 CT Opening ceremonies fluff going on.
9:10  National Anthem being played.
9:12 Ice resurface going on, first warm-up group will probably start in about ten minutes
9:26 Crowd looks a bit more full than pairs SP, but it is far from sold out.
9:28 Lights are up in the arena and it looks like the competition is close to getting underway
Warm-up Group 1 on ice. Fairly big crowd responses for Abbott and Weir
Abbott-clean 3R
Commentators say that Razzano is planning a quad
Abbott and Weir in same costumes as GP events
Warm-up group 1 has concluded




Wesley Campbell
3A-leaning to right in air; fall
3Z(possible UR)+2R-landed
Circular step-slow
Spin combo- nicely centered but slow
Back sit spin to pancake to fwd sit-slow
3F-good; slight cheat
SLSS-decent
Deathdrop to sit spin to pancake-positions not low enough
Has smooth movement quality but overall movement quality is slow and a bit lifeless.


TES: 28.55
PCS: 28.43
Ded: -1.00
Total: 55.98




Johnny Weir
3Z+3T-very smooth
3A-slightly off in air but beautifully landed
3F-smallest of wobbles but well done
Sit spin combo-good speed and stretch
Circular step-good attack
Deathdrop to pancake to sit-good
SLSS-a tad slow in places but great energy
Final spin combo-excellent
Excellent skate. Weir really sold the performance and his stroking looked faster. Standing ovation.


TES: 45.32
PCS: 38.19
Total: 83.51
Rank: 1




Douglas Razzano
3A-solid
4T-fall; slight UR
3T+3T-fall out of 2nd jump
Nice low pancake and sit spin positions
Circular step sequence-slow
Deathdrop to pancake-good
SLSS-weak
Camel to sit spin to back pancake-excellent
Good spins, potentially good jumps but relatively bland program to "Claire de Lune."


TES: 36.56
PCS: 28.71
Ded: -1.00
Total: 64.27
Rank: 2




Parker Pennington
3A-fall; looked rotated
3Z(weight forward)+3T-wobble but landed
3F-great height and landing; possible lip
Good deathdrop to pancake spin combo
Circular step-good energy at beginning but loses it that toward the end
Excellent sit spin combo
SLSS-a bit simplistic, good speed
Fwd sit to bwd sit spin-very good
Good energy in parts of the program but his movement is often a bit awkward looking. Really muscled through that skate but the spins were nice.


TES: 33.33
PCS: 29.25
Ded: -1.00
Total: 61.58
Rank: 3




Jeremy Abbott
3F+3T-well done
3A-lovely
Sit spin combo-decent
3Z-slightly forward on landing but otherwise clean
Circular step-brilliant
Camel to fwd sit to bwd sit-good
SLSS-good but no the same abandonment be had in the circular step
Deathdrop to pancake-good
Very focused at the beginning but otherwise the presentation was brilliant. Great jumps, spins, and footwork. Standing ovation.


TES: 47.55
PCS: 40.30
Total: 87.85
Rank: 1




Warm-Up Group 2 on ice that includes Ryan Bradley.
Crowd response seems to indicate that Bradley did his 4T in warm-up; he was preparing for the jump but the camera turned to someone else.
4T+3T from Bradley with a wonky landing on his 4T
Warm-Up Group 2 has concluded.




Michael Solonoski
2A-landed; loose in the air; intended 3A
3Z+2T-solid
Deathdrop to sit-well centered but slow
Circular step sequence-a bit slow and bland
3R-lovely
Fwd sit to bwd sit-once again slow but centered
SLSS-smooth and fluid but very vanilla movement
Fwd sit to bwd sit to fwd catch-foot- decent
Somewhat fluid but extremely bland skating


TES: 29.45
PCS: 25.81
Total: 55.26
Rank: 6




Ryan Bradley
4T(slight UR but will likely get credited)+3T-well done
2A-stalled out too long in the air; landed fine
Circular step-very fun
2Z-bye bye Olympic dream
Spin combo with several different positions that ended with a very slow back camel
SLSS-not as much attack as he is capable of
Fwd camel(little wobble) to back sit-OK
Very disappointed


TES: 37.05
PCS: 33.58
Total: 70.63
Rank: 3




Jonathan Cassar
3Z+3T(possible UR)-fall
1F
Deathdrop to sit to pancake spin combo- a tad slow, positions not low enough
SLSS-not much use of levels but good musicality
Stunning inside spread eagle
2A-good
Decent spin combo
Circular step-good
Fwd camel to bkwd pancake-great


TES: 26.84
PCS: 29.69
Ded: -1.00
Total: 55.53
Rank: 7




Alexander Johnson
1A
3F-weight forward, possible UR, fall
3Z(hand down)+2T-landed
Step sequence-lots of turns; decent speed; keeps in character with the program
Deathdrop to sit spin-nice low position
Circular step sequence-a bit simplistic
Fwd camel to fwd sit to bkwd sit to Y-scale spin-slowed down toward end
bkwd sit to fwd sit-a tad slow but centered well


TES: 26.43
PCS: 28.86
Ded: -1.00
Total: 54.29
Rank: 9




Keegan Messing
3A-forward on landing; possible UR
3Z(off-balance)+1T-two footed
Deathdrop to sit to pancake spin combo-excellent
3F-good
SLSS-nice expression, good quick movement
Fwd camel to sit with variations to bkwd camel to bkwd sit-great
Circular step-movement is a tad awkward but he has good energy
Great final spin combination
Awkward ending
A bit unpolished but great energy, speed, and spins. Good potential and he really engaged the crowd into his skate.


TES: 34.95
PCS: 28.83
Total: 63.78
Rank: 5




Grant Hochstein
3Z+3T-good
2A-clean with leap out of the landing position
Back camel to donut to fwd camel to catch-foot- centered well but slow
3F-low; fall out; possible UR
Circular step-good
Flying sit spin-very good
SLSS-decent speed
Fwd camel to bkwd sit-decent
Elegant but bland program to the music of the ballet The Sleeping Beauty. Nice polish and good speed.


TES: 35.94
PCS: 29.61
Total: 65.55
Rank: 4


Ice resurfacing going on right now.


Warm-Up Group 3 on ice that includes Lysacek.
Lysacek in different costume with no feathers that is still basically all black.
Lysacek-good 3R, almost collided with someone while attempting 3F
The Icenetwork feed is currently down. I will post further updates when it is back up.
The feed has been stopping and starting but it is back up and seems to be OK now.
Warm-Up Group 3 concluded.




Stephen Carriere
1A
3Z(weight forward)+2T-landed
3R-beautiful
Fwd sit to pancake-little bit slow in sit spin
SLSS-good speed
Deathdrop to sit spin-good speed at beginning but loses a lot of that speed during his last spin variation in the combination
Circular step sequence-decent
Back camel (traveled slightly) to bkwd sit to fwd sit (lost balance)
Good speed and some good movement but a rather one-dimensional program. He has a lot of potential that is unfortunately unfulfilled at this point.


TES: 28.85
PCS: 29.83
Total: 58.68
Rank: 8




Shaun Rogers
4T-fell, possible UR, too slow going in
Icenetwork feed stopped
SLSS-interesting in places but labored
Final spin combo-decent but not especially difficult
Replay shows that 3A was excellent


Icenetwork feed stopped again.




Dennis Phan
3A-wobbly
3Z+2T-good
3F-great
Fwd sit to bkwd sit to pancake-a tad slow
SLSS-very fluid but slow
Pancake spin combo-very good
Circular step sequence-good
Back camel to forward sit spin (among other spin variations) in final spin combo-wobbled noticeably going into forward sit spin
Very fluid and calm skater.


TES: 31.55
PCS: 30.96
Total: 62.51
Rank: 7




Daniel Raad
2A-landed
3F(possible UR, forward, slow coming out)+2T(toe-axeled)-landed
3Z-forward, hand down
Spin combo-decent
Circular step sequence-slow
Fwd sit to bkwd sit (not low enough) to pancake (slow)
SLSS-occasionally good movement but presented with no spark at all
Back camel (position substandard) to fwd sit spin (a tad slow)
Wobble on ending pose
Program was like watching paint dry


TES: 27.07
PCS: 22.25
Total: 49.32
Rank: 15




Richard Dornbush
3Z+3T(slightly toe-axeled)-well landed
3A-fall; possible UR
Flying sit spin-good low position
3F-very good
Bkwd camel to catch-foot to fwd camel-nice positions
Circular step sequence-A little slow in places but good movement
Fwd camel to sit to back sit to fwd catch-foot- nice speed until the end
SLSS-Nice power
Good strength and attack but needs a little bit more refinement to his movement.


TES: 37.54
PCS: 29.25
Ded: -1.00
Total: 65.79
Rank: 4




Evan Lysacek
3A-fall out but rotated
3Z+3T-little forward on landing but held landing edge nicely
3F-spiral preceding it, good amplitude and landing
Circular step sequence-very dramatic and fast
Bkwd sit to pancake and fwd sit-excellent
Deathdrop to bkwd sit to pancake-good
SLSS-good
Fwd camel to sit to bkwd sit to catch-foot-good
Good recovery from mistake on 3A. Presentation is very dramatic and perhaps overly so.


TES: 44.23
PCS: 39.46
Total: 83.69
Rank: 2


Warm-Up Group 4, which includes Rippon and Mroz, is currently on the ice.
Rippon-stunning Rippin 3Z in warm-up.
Mroz just fell out of a jump (probably the quad)
Warm-up concluded.




Brandon Mroz
4T-fell out; hand down; possible UR
1A-spread eagle preceding it
Bkwd sit to fwd sit spin-good
3Z+3T-great
Deathdrop to sit spin
SLSS-Not completely invested in the music but some occasional good moments
Circular step-bland
Final spin combo that ended with a back sit spin-decent
Not a terrible program but he looks very tense while doing some of the choreography. A rough skate for him jumping wise and the replay seems to indicate that his 4T will be downgraded.


TES: 33.99
PCS: 30.46
Total: 64.45
Rank: 7




Armin Mahbanoozadeh
3A-slight wobble but good
3F+3T-very good
3Z-slightly forward but solid
Good spin combo
Nice soft knees in footwork; could look up at audience more
Spin combination-good
SLSS-Decent, needs to make movement bigger
Final spin combo-traveled slightly on camel but otherwise OK
Very polished and fluid performance.


TES: 41.16
PCS: 31.40
Total: 72.56
Rank: 4




Andrew Gonzales
3F(slightly UR)+3T-landed
2A-landed
3Z-possible UR; landed
Back sit spin to fwd sit spin-good speed
Circular step sequence-good movement but doesn't use the entire rink
Good camel to sit spin to bkwd sit spin
SLSS-Nice energy
Gonzales has quite a few decent qualities to his skating but nothing completely stands out. His speed is very creditable no matter what he is doing, however.


TES: 33.38
PCS: 29.00
Total: 62.38
Rank: 12 (loud boos from audience)




Adam Rippon
3F+3T-good
3A-slight cheat but will likely get credited; landed well
Superb donut spin
Circular step-Nice fluidity
Rippon 2Z-touches his hands to the boards
SLSS-fall at beginning
Bkwd camel to layback catch-foot - good
Fwd sit to bkwd sit to pancake-good


TES: 38.06
PCS: 35.85
Ded: -1.00
Total: 72.91
Rank: 4




Jason Wong
3Z+2T+Combo-Step out of 3Z, will not get credit for 2T
3A-excellent
Back pancake to fwd sit-good
Circular step sequence-a bit bland
3S-low but landed
Deathdrop to sit spin-traveled slightly at beginning and completely fumbled exit
SLSS-good expression but footwork is simplistic
Final spin combo-solid
Very pleased with performance.


TES: 33.49
PCS: 31.07
Total: 64.56
Rank: 9




Tommy Steenberg
3A-two footed, possible UR
3Z+3R-turn in-between, UR and double footed 3R
2F-fall
Bkwd sit to fwd sit to pancake-good
Circular step-good
Fwd camel to upright to bkwd pancake spin-decent speed
Good flexibility and has a fairly natural moving quality but jumps were very poor tonight.


TES: 30.86
PCS: 29.31
Ded: -1.00
Total: 59.17
Rank: 16




Results here

2009 Skate America Mens FS Live Commentary

Start Order


Warm-Up Group 1
1 Igor MACYPURA SVK
12 51.45

2 Tomas VERNER CZE
11 55.90

3 Kevin REYNOLDS CAN
10 59.05

4 Jialiang WU CHN
9 59.16

5 Ryan BRADLEY USA
8 59.24

6 Yasuharu NANRI JPN
7 59.35


Warm-Up Group 2
7 Andrei LUTAI RUS
6 60.64

8 Shawn SAWYER CAN
5 65.95

9 Adrian SCHULTHEISS SWE
4 67.55

10 Brandon MROZ USA
3 71.40

11 Florent AMODIO FRA
2 72.65

12 Evan LYSACEK USA
1 79.17

7:58 CT Judges have been announced. First warm-up group out on ice.
Reynolds-clean 3R; dressed in black and gold
Renyolds-fall on 3F in warm-up
Wu-fall out of 3R
Nanri-lovely 3Z
Bradley-popped axel
Verner-3A(fall)
Verner-turned 4T into triple; fell out
Bradley-landed 4T+2T
Warm-up concluded.



Igor Macypura (Slovak Republic)
3A+3T-good height; well done
3Z+3T-barely held onto 3T but landed
Step sequence slow
Good low sit spin
Spin combo traveled
1R-landed on two feet
1A-slow entrance
1F-totally off in air; landed on two feet
2A-almost no preparation or speed going into it but landed
3S-fall
No energy left
2A+2A+SEQ-decent
Extremely pedestrian choreography. No speed whatsoever throughout program.


TES: 47.07
PCS: 46.50
Ded: -1.00
Total: 92.57
Grand Total: 144.02



Tomas Verner (Czech Republic)
4T-fall but looked roated
3T-opened up in air but landed
3A-nice
Footwork good but not as fast nor as expressive as he is capable of executing that element
Sit spin position could have more stretch
3A+2T-good
3Z-nice
3F-good, maybe lipped
2S
3R+2T-good
Straight line step sequence-a bit slow; footwork is good, however
Final compo spin-traveled slightly
Very methodically skated program. Not much spark or speed but much better than Friday.


TES: 68.06
PCS: 71.10
Ded: -1.00
Total: 138.16
Grand Total: 194.06
Rank: 1



Kevin Reynolds (Canada)
4S-good
2T(intended 4T+3T)
3A-(hunched way forward on entrance; landed jump while leaning forward on landing)+2T
3R+3T(toe-axeled)-landed
3A-possible UR
3S-weight back but well controlled landing
Footwork-needs to get down into ice more; more speed needed
3Z-flutzed
3F+3T(toe-axeled)+2R-landed
Straight line step sequence-movement aren't bad but don't reflect music
Traveled in final spin combo
Has improved slightly artistically; his short program demonstrates that more so than his long.


TES: 72.28
PCS: 58.90
Total: 131.18
Grand Total: 190.23
Rank: 2



Jialiang Wu (China)
3Z+3T-Weight was slightly back but adjusted very well in the air; nicely done
3A+2T-great
2A+2T+2R-nice
Spin combo fairly slow
Hunches over while stroking
3R-two footed; fell out
1A
3F-awkward landing; possibly double footed
2S
Speed and energy is completely gone
Simplistic footwork
Straight line step sequence-extremely slow; void of any actual steps
3Z-hard fall to the side
No presentation.


TES: 55.00
PCS: 51.10
Ded: -1.00
Total: 105.10
Grand Total: 164.26
Rank: 3



Ryan Bradley (USA)
4T-good
4T+2T-slightly forward on landing of 4T but landed
Great expression in footwork
3A-leaning to the left slightly but well controlled landing
3Z-great landing and finishing arm position
Straight line step sequence-slow and not as difficult as others' step sequences but well-executed; good energy
3F-barely picked in; fell out of
3R-good; little bit slow coming out
1S+3T-way off on salchow but centered himself and pulled off 3T well
2Z+2T+2T-landed but slow going in and out of jumping pass
His skating skills are fairly poor but he really does all that he can with expressing to the crowd. Good skate.


TES: 70.38
PCS: 68.50
Total: 138.88
Grand Total: 198.12
Rank: 1



Yasuharu Nanri (Japan)
3A+3T-good
3Z-little slow coming out of it but solid
3A- fall
Good centering in spin combo but sit spin not low enough
3R-struggled to solidify landing but clean
2A+2T+2T-landed
3F-nice height; forward on landing; possibly lipped
Footwork OK but simplistic; very slow during the last part of it
3F-heavily two-footed; looked lipped; perhaps slightly UR
3S-turned out
Circular step sequence-good movement; could be faster
Adequate skating skills but needs to keep up the speed of the program as it continues. Relatively bland presentation.


TES: 51.69
PCS: 58.80
Ded: -1.00
Total: 109.49
Grand Total: 168.84
Rank: 4


Warm-Up Group 2 on ice.
Lutai-good 3R+2T
Mroz-Good 3F+2T+2R
Amodio-Low but landed 3R
Lysacek-Good 3A
Lysacek-Good 3S
Mroz-Fall on 4T
Warm-up concluded.



Andrei Lutai (Russia)
3A-little forward but landed
4T-hands down; fall out
3A-fall; will only be credited as a sequence because neither 3A was in combination
2Z+2T
Good straight line step
Good speed in start of spin combo; slowed down and traveled towards the end
3F-good
3R-fall
2A-good
Circular step sequence-slow
Last sit spin to pancake not low enough
3S-landed awkwardly but held on
Some good moments in the choreography but quite bland after that.


TES: 49.15
PCS: 60.00
Ded: -2.00
Total: 107.15
Grand Total: 167.79
Rank: 5



Shawn Sawyer (Canada)
3A-two-footed; turned out; possible UR
3F+3T-good
3Z-leaning forward on landing; possible flutz
Great split jump transition
Great musicality in step sequence
3R-good with split jump preceding it
2A+3T-hand down
Great spiral
3F-good
2A-turned out
Very entertaining; nicely executed straight line step sequence
3S(scratchy, possibly two-footed landing)+2T+2R-landed
Spin combo a tad slow; traveling; great positions
Very entertaining and polished program.


TES: 68.86
PCS: 69.10
Total: 137.96
Grand Total: 203.91
Rank: 1



Adrian Schultheiss (Sweden)
3F+3T-fall out
3A+2T-little awkward going into 2T but landed
3Z-good
Quirky step sequence; very contemporary
3A-fell out of; possible UR
2A-good
3R-good
3S-good
3Z+2T-very low 2T; fell out of
Straight line step sequence-sluggish
Music is very different but the program itself, with the exception of a few parts, is actually quite generic. Needs to improve speed, particularly when he is entering or coming out of a jump. Noticeable improvement from his performance at this event last year.


TES: 56.32
PCS: 61.20
Total: 117.52
Grand Total: 185.07
Rank: 5



Brandon Mroz (USA)
4T-fall; looked rotated
1A+2T
3F(very slow coming out)+2T+2T(hopped out)-landed
Improved footwork; good quick turns
2A+2T-spread eagle coming before it; intended 3A+2T
3Z+2T-very close to the boards but landed
3R-put free leg down very quickly
2S
2Z
Decent straight line step sequence
Skating skills have improved but jumps were just not there tonight. A poor warm-up directly translated to his skate.


TES: 71.40
PCS: 61.40
Ded: -1.00
Total: 102.60
Grand Total: 174.00
Rank: 6



Florent Amodio (France)
2A-intended 4S
3A-held on
3R-nice
Very creative and expressive footwork
3A-turned out; will only be counted as a sequence
Random fall while stroking but comically shrugs it off
3S+3T-barely held on
3Z-step out
3F-double footed
3Z-fell out of; will only be counted as a sequence
Very quirky skater like Preaubert, Contesti, and Bradley, but has superior skating skills to them all. Good speed but his jumps were quite shaky tonight.


TES: 57.03
PCS: 68.30
Ded: -1.00
Total: 124.93
Grand Total: 197.58
Rank: 3



Evan Lysacek (USA)
3Z+3T-spread eagle going in; excellent
3A-swingy landing but looked rotated
3S-weight back; fall out
Step sequence-Good musicality but could use more motion throughout his entire body as opposed to doing so many arm movements
Nice sit spin to pancake
3A(possible UR)+2T-landed
3R-nice
3F(possible UR)+2T+2R-good landing with spiral preceding jumping pass
3Z-good
2A-good
Great straight line step sequence
Very expressive program


TES: 77.55
PCS: 81.00
Total: 158.55
Grand Total: 237.72
Rank: 1



Overall Standings
1 Evan LYSACEK USA 237.72 1 1
2 Shawn SAWYER CAN 203.91 5 4
3 Ryan BRADLEY USA 198.12 8 2
4 Florent AMODIO FRA 197.58 2 6
5 Tomas VERNER CZE 194.06 11 3
6 Kevin REYNOLDS CAN 190.23 10 5
7 Adrian SCHULTHEISS SWE 185.07 4 7
8 Brandon MROZ USA 174.00 3 11
9 Yasuharu NANRI JPN 168.84 7 8
10 Andrei LUTAI RUS 167.79 6 9
11 Jialiang WU CHN 164.26 9 10
12 Igor MACYPURA SVK 144.02 12 12


That is all.

2009 Skate America Mens SP Live Commentary

Start Order

Warm-Up Group 1

1 Igor MACYPURA SVK
2 Andrei LUTAI RUS
3 Jialiang WU CHN
4 Ryan BRADLEY USA
5 Shawn SAWYER CAN
6 Yasuharu NANRI JPN


Warm-Up Group 2

7 Florent AMODIO FRA
8 Adrian SCHULTHEISS SWE
9 Kevin REYNOLDS CAN
10 Brandon MROZ USA
11 Evan LYSACEK USA
12 Tomas VERNER CZE


7:59 CT. Judges being announced. Todd Sand is technical specialist.
Warm-Up Group 1 on ice. Bezic and Joyce also commentating this competition.
Macypura and Sawyer almost collided.
Bradley landed 3A in warm-up. Sawyer landed 3A in warm-up with a cheat on landing.
Nanri-turn out on 3A.
Nanri-Did 3A again; leaning to the side and possibly UR but held the landing position.
Warm-Up Group 1 concluded.
Karen Kwan in attendance coaching Igor Macypura.


Igor Macypura (Slovakia)
Blues for Klook music
3A-fall; possible UR
3F-intended combo but no speed coming out of 3F and therefore didn't tack on a 2nd jump
3Z+3T-little speed coming out of either jump but completed
Very slow footwork in both step sequences
Camel spin traveled slightly
Extremely bland program


TES: 29.00
PCS: 24.45
Ded: -2.00
Total: 51.45


Andrei Lutai (Russia)
3A-great
3T+2T-intended 4T+3T; opened up in the air; slow entrance
3Z-jump traveled back instead of up, but landed
Slight slip in footwork
Traveled slightly in spin combo and missed the camel part of the combo spin because he appeared off-balance
Not low enough in the deathdrop to sit spin at the end
Skate needed much more speed, attack, and energy. Slightly more interesting than Macypura's.


TES: 33.04
PCS: 28.60
Ded: -1.00
Total: 60.64
Rank: 2



Jiuliang Wu (China)
3Z+3T-good; slightly pre-rotated 3T
3A-good height; turned out
3R-looked slightly UR but landed
Slow step sequence
Nice amplitude in deathdrop; stumble on exit
Decent straight line step sequence and final spin combo
Definitely could use more speed and bigger movements.


TES: 33.06
PCS: 26.10
Total: 59.10
Rank: 2



Ryan Bradley (USA)
4T+2T+SEQ-UR and fall out on 4T; stepped in-between jumps so will not receive credit for the 2T
3A-swingy entrance; good height but a fall out on landing
3Z-nice arm position on landing
Combo spin-slow
Excellent step sequences; great personality
As always a very quirky presentation from Ryan Bradley; he is able to mask some of his weaknesses in skating skills and transitions in this short program versus the long program. Relatively poor posture. Entertaining program but I have seen him emote to the audience even more than he did tonight.


TES: 30.94
PCS: 29.30
Ded: -1.00
Total: 59.24
Rank: 2



Shawn Sawyer (Canada)
Good speed
3A-fall out; looked slightly UR
3F(slightly leaning)+3T-landed
2Z-opened up on 1st revolution
Great extension in all spin positions
Good incorporation of upper body in circular step sequence; great musicality
Straight line step sequence-not quite as dynamic as circular footwork but still very good
Great extension in Y-scale spin
Dynamic finish
Really great program; a shame about the mistakes technically. Very musical and showed a lot of attention to detail with artistry.


TES: 34.60
PCS: 31.35
Total: 65.95
Rank: 1



Yasuharu Nanri (Japan)
3A-nice
3F+3T-possible double foot; slightly UR on 2nd jump
2Z-way too far forward in air; two-footed
Step sequence decent; could have just a bit more speed and presentation
Deathrop to sit spin-sit spin could be a bit lower
Circular step sequence good not great
Overall the program is decent on pretty much every level but there is nothing unique or exciting in it.


TES: 29.30
PCS: 30.05
Total: 59.35
Rank: 3


Warm-Up Group 2 on ice. Reynolds fall on 2Z in warm-up- not good for someone so reliant on jumps. How the hell is Schultheiss in this top group of two?
Reynolds landed what looked like a 3A. Amodio-low but landed 3F.
Mroz-fall out on 4T.
Warm-up concluded.


Florent Amodio (France)
Good speed
3A-nice; lovely twizzle series immediately following it
3Z-somewhat off but landed
3S+3T-good
Great turning elements in footwork and very quick, continuous movement
Flying sit spin-not low enough and traveled slightly
Great expression in final step sequence
Very finely put together program.


TES: 39.90
PCS: 32.75
Total: 72.65
Rank: 1



Adrian Schultheiss (Sweden)
3Z+3T(possible UR)-slightly rough landing
3A-little speed coming out but landed
Great speed in combo spin
Good movement in footwork but slow
3F-good
Straight line step sequence-decent
Flying sit spin-nice and low; decent speed
Well I'll eat my words from earlier! Not a stunning performance by any means but a huge improvement from his work at this competition last year. Shows more polish and refinement in his choreography than he has previously but the height and speed of his jumps need improving.


TES: 37.80
PCS: 30.75
Ded: -1.00
Total: 67.55
Rank: 2



Kevin Reynolds (Canada)
4S(double footed)+3T-landed
1A-slowed down completely on entrance
3Z-little low but landed
Good deathdrop to sit spin to pancake
Footwork-little slow, expression has improved
Straight line step sequence-musical but again a bit slow
Artistry has definitely improved, but an unfortunate and peculiar mistake on the 3A attempt. Fun program but didn't sell it to its full potential.


TES: 28.70
PCS: 30.35
Total: 59.05
Rank: 8



Brandon Mroz (USA)
4T+3T(turn in-between)-struggled but good fight
3A-turned out; possible slight UR
Good low sit spin
3Z-very nice
Movement in footwork is good but his expression does not relate to the fun nature of the music at all. Serious music seems to suit him a bit better.


TES: 40.90
PCS: 30.50
Total: 71.40
Rank: 2



Evan Lysacek (USA)
3A-looked UR
3Z+3T-slight UR on 2nd jump but landed well
3F-very good but lipped slightly
Good flexibility in pancake through to sit spin
Lots of expression in footwork; good speed; arm flailing at full force
Very well put together program with excellent energy


TES: 39.62
PCS: 39.55
Total: 79.17
Rank: 1



Tomas Verner (Czech Republic)
4T-fall; UR
2A-popped open but landed
2Z
Nice speed in footwork but spark is gone
Quirky expressions but mistakes have diminished overall impression of the program
Complete disaster
Huth seems to be ultimate coach of headcases: Dytrt, Kostner, Verner


TES: 21.80
PCS: 35.10
Ded: -1.00
Total: 55.90
Rank: 11



1 Evan LYSACEK USA 79.17 1 (Would be 83.87 if 3A had gotten ratified, although it was rightfully not)
2 Florent AMODIO FRA 72.65 2
3 Brandon MROZ USA 71.40 3
4 Adrian SCHULTHEISS SWE 67.55 4
5 Shawn SAWYER CAN 65.95 5
6 Andrei LUTAI RUS 60.64 6
7 Yasuharu NANRI JPN 59.35 7
8 Ryan BRADLEY USA 59.24 8
9 Jialiang WU CHN 59.16 9
10 Kevin REYNOLDS CAN 59.05 10
11 Tomas VERNER CZE 55.90 11
12 Igor MACYPURA SVK 51.45 12


That is all.

COC Mens Free Live Commentary

Here is my live commentary for the mens free skate, taking place at the 2009 Cup of China.

Start Order
Warm-Up Group 1
1 Armin MAHBANOOZADEH USA
12 59.54

2 Kevin REYNOLDS CAN
11 60.12

3 Ming XU CHN
10 61.02

4 Denis TEN KAZ
9 64.05

5 Chao YANG CHN
8 65.10

6 Stephen CARRIERE USA
7 65.24

Warm-Up Group 2

7 Yannick PONSERO FRA
6 66.65

8 Jinlin GUAN CHN
5 66.70

9 Samuel CONTESTI ITA
4 72.08

10 Evan LYSACEK USA
3 80.80

11 Sergei VORONOV RUS
2 81.40

12 Nobunari ODA JPN
1 83.35


Armin Mahbanoozadeh (USA)
3A-fall
3A+3T-fall on 2nd jump; good attempt
3F(lovely)+2T(toe-axeled)-landed
3R-landed
Good flying deathdrop
3Z-nice
3S-good; came after Ina Bauer (without back bend)
3Z+2T-lutz not as high as 1st, combo was cleanly landed nonetheless
2A-good
Good final spin combo

TES: 65.29
PCS: 53.70
Ded: -2.00
Total: 116.99
Grand Total: 176.53


Kevin Reynolds (Canada)
4S-fall out
2T
3A(wobbly)+2T
3R+3T-no speed coming out of 2nd jump but landed
3A-possible UR but landed
3S-preceded and followed by spirals; nice
3Z-low but clean
3F+3T(slight toe-axel)+2R-good
Spins were OK throughout program but the last spin combo was far and away the best with great speed
Transitions and expression have improved slightly from last season. Crowd liked the performance.

TES: 72.45
PCS: 55.90
Total: 128.35
Grand Total: 188.47
Rank: 1


Ming Xu (China)
Warsaw Concerto
3A-fall
3A-good but will only count as a sequence because neither 3A was in combination
3Z-good
Fairly simplistic footwork
3Z+1T-It looked like he missed his toe pick on the entrance to the toe
2A+2A+SEQ-good height; barely held onto landing of first 2A
3R-clean
1A
3S-clean
Missed exit to spin
Interpretation and transitions are very weak. Choreography is repetitive but speed is OK.

TES: 52.45
PCS: 51.10
Ded: -1.00
Total: 102.55
Grand Total: 163.57
Rank: 3


Denis Ten (Kazakstan)
3A-very nice
Z-off balance on entrance, tripped, didn't leave the ice
Nice step sequence
Great middle section of choreo
3F-fall
3Z-fall; possible UR
3R-landed
3S-good (plus another jump that was landed in a sequence that I missed)
2A-good
Very nice straight line step sequence
Good dynamic presentation

TES: 59.38
PCS: 61.20
Ded: -2.00
Total: 118.58
Grand Total: 182.63
Rank: 2


Chao Yang (China)
3Z+3T-great air time
3F-lovely
2A-less height on this jump than previous triples but clean
Nice speed in spin combo
2A+2T+2R-very hunched over landing on 2A but otherwise OK
3F(slightly UR)+2T-landed with steps preceding jump pass
3S-nice
Footwork doesn't use motion of whole body; fairly bland
2A-landed
Flying deathdrop-slightly off-axis
Very tired and slow toward end of program
3Z-good
Off balance to entrance of final spin
Very bland artistically

TES: 66.49
PCS: 58.40
Total: 124.89
Grand Total: 189.99
Rank: 1


Stephen Carriere (USA)
3A-nice
3R+2A+SEQ-good
3Z-good with steps preceding it
Good step sequence
3F-little off but held on
2A+2T-opened up in air and fell out of landing
3R-good
3Z+Tano2T+2R(w/both arms above head)-close to the boards but clean
3S-forward on landing; held on
Good speed on final combo spin; traveled slightly
Much improved skating skills and musicality

TES: 65.94
PCS: 63.90
Total: 129.84
Grand Total: 195.08
Rank: 1


Warm-Up Group 2 is on the ice. Guan landed nice 3Z+3T. Contesti did a clean but wobbly triple flip. Lysacek is in black as usual.


Yannick Ponsero (France)
4T-very nice
3A-slightly forward on landing but clean
3Z-fall backwards
3A+2T(he was leaning in the air in the 3A, hopped and turned out of it but did not put his foot down and tacked on the 2T)
3S+2T+2T-good
3R-leaning over right side and fell
3T+half loop+3S-nice
Good spins
Incredible speed in his stroking; program was not as fun and carefree as the theme of the music suggested to be.

TES: 61.77
PCS: 68.70
Ded: -2.00
Total: 128.47
Grand Total: 195.12
Rank: 1


Jinlin Guan (China)
3Z+3T-great
3F-lovely air time and smooth landing
2S
2A-good height
deathdrop
3F-hand down; leaned in the air
3R-landed
3Z-solid
2A+2T+T-landed
Guan has good understanding of subtlety and holding out movements to match some of the sections of the score that have slower tempos. Good expression; footwork sequences need more speed and power.

TES: 57.35
PCS: 63.90
Total: 121.25
Grand Total: 187.95
Rank: 5


Samuel Contesti (Italy)
3A+3T-Put his hand and free leg down to the ice on 2nd jump but did not fall
3F-crashed into boards
3Z-nice
3A-good height
3R-fall out
2A-good
3S+3T-solid
2A+2T+2T-good
Very fun, quirky program, but his western-themed LP from last year worked better because it carried a theme and it was explored in a comedic manner. Contesti's facial mannerisms are fun to watch at first but become repetitive.

TES: 69.47
PCS: 67.30
Ded: -1.00
Total: 135.77
Grand Total: 207.85
Rank: 1


Evan Lysacek (USA)
3Z+3T-forward on landing but OK
3A-good
3S-slightly off to left side but controlled landing
3A+2T-landing on 3A a little wild but clean
3R-landed; possible UR
3F(possible double foot)+2T+2R(possible UR)
3Z-slightly wild landing, held on
2A-good
Great climax to straight line step sequence
Very dramatic program. I prefer something like his Gershwin LP from last season that is more subtle; the more dramatic programs like this, Carmen, and Tosca, go very overboard with expression.

TES: 72.87
PCS: 78.50
Total: 151.37
Grand Total: 232.17
Rank: 1


Sergei Voronov (Russia)
4T-held on
2Z+3T-dealt with mistake on lutz well
3A+2T-very good
Nice use of levels in footwork
1A
3R-excellent; finished revolution well before landing
2F
3S+2T+2R-good
2A-good
Program doesn't really go anywhere and his movement does not always reflect the intensity of his music.

TES: 65.59
PCS: 73.40
Total: 138.99
Grand Total: 220.39
Rank: 2


Nobunari Oda (Japan)
3Z-nice
3A+3T-entrance a little slow but otherwise excellent
Good spin combo
3S-solid
1A
3Z+3T+2R-great recovery, very solid
3F-preceded by spiral; good
3R-nice
2A-nice
Very nice performance. This Charlie Chaplin themed program is different, but is also something that can be very easily appreciated. The programs flows together very well and maintains the fun, comical theme throughout.

TES: 78.13
PCS: 78.10
Total: 156.23
Grand Total: 239.58
Rank: 1


Final Standings
1 Nobunari ODA JPN 239.58
2 Evan LYSACEK USA 232.17
3 Sergei VORONOV RUS 220.39
4 Samuel CONTESTI ITA 207.85
5 Yannick PONSERO FRA 195.12
6 Stephen CARRIERE USA 195.08
7 Chao YANG CHN 189.99
8 Kevin REYNOLDS CAN 188.47
9 Jinlin GUAN CHN 187.95
10 Denis TEN KAZ 182.63
11 Armin MAHBANOOZADEH USA 176.53
12 Ming XU CHN 163.57

2009 World Figure Skating Championships-Mens Preview Part II

Evan Lysacek (USA)



Expectations Going In: A two-time world bronze medalist, Lysacek suffered an arm injury as a result of a broken blade, which kept him out of this competition last year. A subsequently rough return to competition surfaced in October 2008, when lackluster skates, and programs packaged with "<"s, kept him down in 3rd place for both of his Grand Prix events, Skate America and Skate Canada. Failing to make the Grand Prix Final, Lysacek's struggles continued in the free skate at the U.S. Nationals, although a third place finish there secured what will be his 5th world team berth (including 2008). An impressive performance at the recent Four Continents Championships, where he finished 2nd, does put him firmly on the list of medal contenders at these World Championships.



Pros: The 6'2" Chicago native scored a personal best total at the 2009 Four Continents Championships, marking a 237.15. Such a score enabled Lysacek to finish ahead of Takahiko Kozuka and Jeremy Abbott, competitors that bested him earlier in the season. Also, his score at 4CCs would've been good enough to have won the 2009 European title by over five points. Lysacek's immense experience has taken him to two world medals, a fourth-place finish at the 2006 Olympics, two Four Continents titles, two U.S. National titles, and nine senior Grand Prix medals. Lysacek's long program, choreographically speaking, has improved tremendously from the beginning of the season, and Lysacek was able to achieve the second-highest PCS marks for both programs at 4CCs (behind Patrick Chan). Lysacek is also credited for his good work ethic and ability to deliver his best form under pressure.



Cons: Lysacek's issues with the quadruple toe loop jump have proven to be interminable; having only landed it once this season (being his quad at 4CCs, which many felt was under rotated). Lysacek has jettisoned the jump from his short program, a wise move, but his attempting of the jump at this season's Skate America and U.S. Nationals proved instrumental in costing him the title at both events. An under rotated quad will be graded as a triple, thus deflating the value of the jump from a 9.8 to a 4.0. A fall will mean a -3 GOE is necessary, and when you include an additional -1.00 deduction for a fall the element essentially receives nothing. Also of note is that it hasn't just been the quad that has given Lysacek issues. His peculiar, and shaky, entrance technique on his triple axel has lead him to receive downgrades on that jump at Skate America, Skate Canada, and at the Four Continents Championships. Lysacek doesn't skate with especially soft, deep knees, which is not only an impediment to some of his PCS marks, but is also potentially harmful to his body when it comes to jump landings.



Outlook: Lysacek's intelligent composition of his programs, specifically when it comes to placing difficult jump combinations after the half-way point and racking up points on non-jump elements, provides a sly manner to one-up his competitors to get himself a third World Championship medal. While his experience is noteworthy, Lysacek cannot revert back to his longtime experience of under rotating jumps, thus losing him valuable points that are not to be lost if he is looking for a podium finish. Many skating aficionados were skeptical over Lysacek's chances just to make the world team, but now he is seen as a legitimate contender for the podium. The problem is such that Lysacek is feverish over his desire to win a world and Olympic gold, and the highest he has placed at either competition is 3rd. Completing such an arduous task would require a brilliant skate, such as his overall showing at 2007 U.S. Nationals, and/or mistakes from other top contenders. In Los Angeles, however, a medal should realistically suffice Evan's expectations. Competing at his first World Championship in his home country, and near his training base in El Segundo, California, means that Lysacek will be unlikely to disappoint at the 2009 World Figure Skating Championships.




Brandon Mroz (USA)



Expectations Going In: Only 18-years-old, Mroz will face by far the biggest task of his career at the upcoming World Championships, having just started competing on the senior level this season. Mroz had a solid, yet unremarkable Grand Prix season, placing 7th at Skate Canada and 5th at Trophee Eric Bompard. Mroz would have been just satified with making the junior world team, but a brilliant performance at the U.S. Nationals placed him 2nd, and was named to the world team. Mroz skated well at the Four Continents Championships in the short, but broke his consistency in the long, dropping from 5th to 8th.



Pros: Mroz had the highest combined total (of both programs) at the U.S. Nationals when it came to TES. Mroz has a technically ambitious long program, attempting a quadruple toe loop and eight other triples, including a triple lutz+triple toe combination after the half-way point of his program, which garners 11 points. The 18-year-old St. Louis native scored slightly higher in his short program at the Four Continents (75.05) than he did at U.S. Nationals (74.88), despite the fact that his U.S. Nationals was a tad bit superior technically. Mroz has rotated his quad four out of four times this season, and the only jump he has received a downgrade on since competing on the senior level is his triple axel. Fully capable of taking off from the correct edge on both his lutz and flip, Mroz was also touted for his presentation by NBC commentator and choreographer Sandra Bezic, pointing out that "It is really obvious here that Brandon is paying attention to the choreography; working with the music" and that "[Brandon] is mature beyond his years."



Cons: Mroz has not broken 200 internationally, as his personal best, recorded at the 2009 Four Continents Championships, lies at a 196.78. His long program at that competition was unsettled, as he received downgrades on both of his axels, falling on the second one. In addition, Brandon received -GOEs on six out of 13 elements in that program, and his total PCS score was only a 63.10, the 8th highest of the day. Although Mroz is generally not prone to wrong-edge deductions, he does have a tendency to switch to the outside edge for his triple flip, and was penalized for it during the short at Trophee Eric Bompard and the long at the Four Continents Championships. Mroz's personal best in the long program (internationally), a 130.64, is the lowest among the men featured in this post. Mroz doesn't have particularly astounding spins or footwork, putting all the more pressure on his somewhat inconsistent jumps.



Outlook: While creating my men's analysis post for the U.S. Nationals, I suggested that "Brandon is hardly in contention for the world team." I strongly considered to be brusque for a change, instead saying, "Brandon has no chance for the world team." But I opted against it, as you never know with the sport of figure skating, and I'm certainly glad I did. Mroz is set to compete at his first World Championships, while looking to fend off comments that his performance at U.S. Nationals was merely a fluke and that his opportunity to compete in Los Angeles is deserved. Having had an unsteady track record, Mroz is capable of delivering all of the goods if he is at his peak, just as he was at U.S. Nationals. Having training partners Jeremy Abbott and Rachael Flatt, who will also be going to worlds, should certainly help Mroz to push the boundaries of his skating level at the Staples Center. Jeremy Abbott and Evan Lysacek are fully capable of placing high enough to get three spots. However, just in case if one is to get injured the day of the short program and is required to withdraw, Mroz already has cleared a hurdle, being that his world ranking enables him to sneak into the prized last two groups for the short program. As far as final standings are concerned, Mroz could feasibly finish in the top 6 if he skates like he did at Nationals, or well below the top 10 if inexperience is to serve him poorly.





Nobunari Oda (Japan)

Expectations Going In: Oda has had brilliant potential throughout his career, but has often failed to live up to it with his own mistakes in skating, and in life. After failing to make the Olympic team and coming just shy of a medal at the 2006 World Championships, Oda was arrested by Osaka police in July 2007 for driving his moped while intoxicated. The Japanese Skating Federation was hardly forgiving of the matter, banning Oda from all subsequent competitions he was scheduled to compete in that year, among other things. Opting out of competing at the 2008 Japanese Nationals and 2008 World Championships, Oda signaled his return to competition at the 2008 NHK Trophy, where he finished 1st. Oda fared worse at his next international competition, the Four Continents Championships, finishing 4th. Thus, he is considered a solid, but beatable, medal threat for these World Championships.



Pros: Oda has the 4th highest seasons best total, recorded at the 2008 NHK Trophy, despite having flawed landings on three of his jumping passes in the long. Capable of executing all of his elements with notable quality, Oda often marks +1 and +2 GOEs for his jumps, spins, and footwork sequences. Lauded for his soft knees, ice coverage, and skating skills, Oda marked an impressive 77.40 for PCS in his long program at this season's NHK Trophy. The current Japanese champion has a quadruple toe loop in his arsenal, and has a jumping pass of a triple flip+triple toe loop+double loop after the half-way point of his long, thus garnering a base value of 12.10 points for a single jumping pass. Oda did not receive anything lower than a level three for any of his non-jump elements at Four Continents, and was able to defeat compatriot Takahiko Kozuka at this year's Japanese Nationals with room to spare.



Cons: Dick Button was always to quick to say the line, "Don't leave it out on the warm-up ice." Oda appears to be in serious need of taking this statement to heart, as at the 2009 Four Continents Championships he was reported to have been skating brilliantly in practices, and was shown landing a clean quadruple toe loop+triple toe loop combination during the warm-up for his free skate. Unfortunately, errors in both programs at that competition, including falling and under rotating his quad, kept Oda off the podium. Oda's lack of transitional elements and expression have hurt him in terms of PCS marks, which came to play at Four Continents, where his PCS score in the long program dropped 6.8 points from where it was at the NHK Trophy. What was even more interesting about this was the fact that Oda's technical mark at NHK was only 1.78 points better, and since the shift of TES and PCS scores often correlate, this does not bode well for how Oda will be scored at these World Championships. Last but not least, Nobunari's inability to be savvy with the current judging system has cost him an Olympic berth, and a world bronze medal.



Outlook: Oda's exorbitant error of doing too many jumping passes in the long program seems to be an old habit of his that will not surface again, but one must remember that Oda committed these costly mistakes during pressure situations in major competitions, including the 2006 Japanese Nationals, 2006 World Championships, and 2007 World Championships. Although not as detrimental of an error, Oda's problems with the code continued during the long program at this year's NHK Trophy, when he didn't tack on a double toe after his second triple axel, which was cleanly landed. He had not done a combination for his first axel, and because he repeated the jump without tacking on a combination, the second triple axel was only given 80% of its original value. Although he still won the event there, small mistakes like that can feasibly make the difference between gold and no medal at all at this competition. Oda's drop in PCS marks is alarming for his medal chances in L.A., but he does have all the technical goods to finish on the podium. In order to augment his medal chances, Oda will primarily need to cover his ability to land his jumps consistently, fine-tune his expression and transitions, and to leap at points whenever he is able to receive them.





Kevin van der Perren (Belgium)



Expectations Going In: At 26-years-old, van der Perren will be making his 8th trip to the World Figure Skating Championships, although this will only be his second time to compete at this event in the last four seasons. Winner of the bronze medal at the 2007 and 2008 European Championships by exceptionally meager margins (.07 and .06, respectively), van der Perren will be one of only two skaters to represent Belgium at these worlds, with the other being Isabelle Pieman. Despite having an excellent quadruple toe loop and very suspended triple jumps in the air, van der Perren has been unable to reach the top tier of male figure skaters at very many points in his career. This has not been helped by the fact that van der Perren suffered a hip injury after the 2006 Olympics, having surgery on it following the conclusion of the 2008 World Championships.



Pros: While winning the bronze medals at the 2007 and 2009 European Championships, his preparation that preceded his skates at those events was, in both cases, tumultuous. In 2007, van der Perren was suffering from his aforementioned hip injury, and in 2009 was battling a virus, and yet in both cases he was able to fight and medal. Among the elements in his bag of tricks are a quadruple toe loop, an improved triple axel, as well as all of the other triple jumps. He also performs an extremely difficult triple salchow+triple toe+triple loop after the half-way point of his long program, which received an eye-popping 15.25 points during the long program at the 2009 Europeans. Van der Perren placed an impressive 6th at last year's World Championships, while also placing 3rd in the long program. The first Belgian skater to win a European figure skating medal since 1947, this fact is supported by Kevin's ability to rotate his jumps consistently and to avoid wrong-edge penalties.



Cons: Van der Perren's personal best in the long program is only a 145.78, which was recorded for an essentially error-free skate. Van der Perren's non-jump elements are comparatively weak against his fellow competitors, as reiterated by the judges when van der Perren received three level 1s at last year's worlds and one level 1 at this year's Europeans. Van der Perren has yet to break 70 internationally in terms of PCS marks, scoring an indifferent 66.70 during his long program at Europeans. His lower PCS marks are largely a reflection of van der Perren's weak transitions and skating skills, and areas in his programs where he is moving his body, but not actually skating. Having only competed twice this season, van der Perren seems to have abandoned his quadruple toe loop from his jumping repertoire, despite its increase in value. The last time he attempted the jump was at the 2008 Europeans, and he also backed off from trying a second triple axel during his long at this year's Europeans.



Outlook: Although van der Perren scored a very respectable 76.86 for TES during the long at Europeans (also the second highest TES score of the day), van der Perren has room for improvement when it comes to the content of his long program. With nothing to lose in regards to getting a medal or attaining a certain number of Olympic berths next year, if he is healthy, van der Perren would be astute to bring back his quadruple toe loop into his jump layout for the long program. Such a change could be made reasonably by van der Perren subbing in his quad for what was his double axel at Europeans, thereby gathering 6.3 more points by upgrading just one jumping pass. Interestingly enough, the World Championships really isn't the greatest pressure event in van der Perren's season, instead it is European Championships. This is based on the reasoning that he can feasibly medal at Europeans, but unfortunately not at worlds. However, looking back to his surprisingly high finish at this event last year, he may just be inclined to perform better without that added pressure.

Yannick Ponsero (France)

Expectations Going In: Ponsero will be making his third trip to the World Figure Skating Championships this March, having placed 14th in 2007 and 18th in 2008. Having placed 12th at the European Figure Skating Championships for the last two years, Ponsero came strikingly close to the podium this year, missing the bronze medal by the microscopic margin of .06. Having had a decent Grand Prix season, placing 4th at Skate Canada and 3rd at the NHK Trophy, Ponsero won his first French title this year with the absence of defending champion Brian Joubert. Ponsero's inability to put together two clean programs in a single competition makes a placement around 7th-12th the most probable.

Pros: When in the zone, Ponsero's jumps are brilliant. The 22-year-old Annecy native received a +2 GOE for his quad at Europeans, a mark that no other skater has achieved for a quadruple jump in an ISU judged event (besides Evgeni Plushenko). The combined total of Ponsero's personal best scores of 78.05 (SP, 2008 Skate Canada) and 151.85 (FS, 2009 Europeans) would have easily been good enough to have won bronze at last year's World Championships. Ponsero was the winner of the short program at Skate Canada and the long program at Europeans, and has fully-rotated eight out of eight quad attempts this season. Ponsero also garners inordinate GOEs for his triple axels when completed to his potential, and sticks all of his combination jumping passes after the half-way point of his long program, thus accumulating additional bonus points.

Cons: Despite skating nearly the best he was capable of during the free at Europeans, Ponsero barely broke 70 points in PCS marks under a lenient panel, and his score of 151.85 in the long is below the seasons best scores of Chan (160.29), Abbott (159.46), Lysacek (155.50), Oda (154.55), and Kozuka (153.78). Ponsero has delivered relatively poor performances the last two years he has competed at this championship, and issues with nerves cost him a medal at this season's Skate Canada, after a flawed free skate dropped him from 1st to 4th. Issues were present with his short program at this year's French Nationals (being downgraded on the back-end of his quad-triple combination; doubling his axel) and at this year's Europeans (doubling his lutz). A flawed short program in Los Angeles would put Ponsero in an earlier group in the free skate, thus deflating his potential to score highly in an early skating position. Ponsero does not have a triple flip in his current jumping repertoire and repeats one of the easier triples, the salchow, twice in his free skate.



Outlook: Ponsero could stand to improve his transitional choreography, musicality, and overall consistency. However, brilliant speed and potentially opulent jumps could definitely shoot him into the top 10 when all is said and done. Ponsero's poor showing last year means that France will only be sending two men (Joubert and Ponsero) to these World Championships. With Joubert's uneven season and his recent injury, Ponsero could have much less breathing room than he would like to place high enough for France to get three Olympic berths for next year. Skaters like Vaughn Chipeur, Samuel Contesti, Brandon Mroz, Kevin van der Perren, and Tomas Verner will likely have the biggest say over where Ponsero is to place at this event, but a top 8 finish from Yannick should secure three Olympic berths easily. While France is not overly dependent on getting a third Olympic berth, Ponsero's performance in Los Angeles could decide his fate for going to the Olympics, if he is to finish 3rd at French Nationals next year.




Tomas Verner (Czech Republic)

Expectations Going In: At times brilliant and at times humiliating, Verner's immense inconsistency has taken him from not making it out of qualifying at this event in 2005 to winning the European title in 2008. His highest finish at a World Championship was 4th in 2007, but the following year dropped to 15th. Verner's inconsistency has continued this season; after placing 2nd at Cup of Russia and finishing ahead of Jeremy Abbott, Verner finished 4th at the Grand Prix Final and 6th at Europeans. Verner has the technical and artistic goods to actually vie for a medal in Los Angeles, but his inability to stay clean throughout a competition makes him the ultimate wildcard.

Pros: Verner's personal best total of 232.67, recorded at the 2008 European Championships, would have won him silver at last year's World Championships. Verner's personal best score of 81.45 for his short program, recorded at the 2009 Europeans, is an extremely desirable score internationally, especially when one considers that he only did a triple toe+triple toe as his combination jumping pass. Not expected to be a medal threat at the 2007 World Championships, out of nowhere Verner unleashed an exceptional free skate, complete with two clean quadruple toe loops. He would finish the night in 4th place, while beating established names like Evan Lysacek, Jeffrey Buttle, and Johnny Weir. Always known to be a top-notch jumper and spinner, Verner has made applaudable improvement in his artistry, especially this season with a very mature, intricate new long program to music selections by Astor Piazolla and Matos Rodriguez.

Cons: Verner's colossal tendency to pop his jumps came to light specifically at both the 2008 World Championships and the 2009 European Championships. Three popped jumps, in addition to a fall, during his free at 2008 worlds kept him down in 20th place for the free skate, and 15th overall. During the free at the 2009 Europeans, a great skate from Verner could have met with gold. However, three popped jumps in the free, and an under rotated and two-footed quad, kept Verner down in 6th place overall. A single jump is more costly than a rotated jump with a fall, as for example a triple lutz with a fall receives three points (two points counting the one point deduction for falls) and a single lutz receives only 0.6. Both of these poor skates came after good short programs, and Verner's stellar long at 2007 Worlds came after a flawed short program. Verner has not broken 15o in the free skate thus far this season, and frecuently incurs an "e" wrong-edge deduction for his triple flip.

Outlook: The dark horse of this championship, Verner has good vehicles in terms of choreography this season, but it is unfortunate that he is unable to drive them by landing his jumps consistently. The judges have been very appreciative of Verner's choreographic composition of his programs, particularly in his long program where he scored a 76.70 for PCS at Cup of Russia, a full six points ahead of what Jeremy Abbott marked at that event. Verner also marked a very solid 37.55 (PCS) for his short at Europeans, and still marked a 72.30 for his long despite an extremely flawed skate technically. The bottom line is that Verner has the tools handy for him to make a splash this March in Los Angeles. In spite of his inconsistency, the judges still support him, and he has all of the technical ingredients to use. It is entirely his option whether he wants to put all of those tools together to become the first Czech man to win a world medal since Ondrej Nepela in 1973, or to leave them in the dust and not even instigate any hope for such a scenario.

Podium Predictions

Gold: Patrick Chan (Canada)- Chan's focus on quality, as opposed to quantity, looks to be paying off. While stacking up on GOE marks for all of his elements, Chan's PCS marks have the potential to go through the roof, at a point where most of the other men cannot realistically achieve. Meeting expectations has been a struggle for Chan, particularly at this event last year, but given how he was judged at the Four Continents Championships he could have breathing room to spare in his quest to win his first world title.

Silver: Jeremy Abbott (USA)- Despite finishing off the podium at two events, Cup of Russia and Four Continents, Abbott has won three important titles this year, and his great overall skating should help propel him to a medal or possibly even gold. Competing in the United States will hopefully boost Jeremy's confidence and desire to skate well, and possibly inflate his marks slightly. His quad is of concern, however, considering that he has not even attempted the jump since this event last year and it could have the ability to drop Abbott far down in the standings if not completed successfully.

Bronze: Brian Joubert (France)- Joubert's medal chances for worlds don't look entirely promising with him finishing off the podium at Trophee Eric Bompard, his close victory at Europeans, and his subsequent knee injury. However, one would be a fool to count Joubert out, especially considering how well he has performed at this competition for the last three seasons. His jumps will decide a lot, and Joubert will really be required to max out his difficulty to fend off higher GOEs and PCS marks from skaters like Chan.

4th: Nobunari Oda (Japan)- Oda is another skater who can take advantage of high GOEs for all of his elements, and is also a skater who has a quad in his arsenal. However, his lower PCS marks at the Four Continents Championships, inconsistency, and past inability to maximize his scoring potential with the current judging system could all collide in front of his path toward the medals stand.

5th: Evan Lysacek (USA)- Lysacek's quadruple toe loop and triple axel have been unsteady elements for him all season long. Lysacek will really need clean skates to get himself a medal in Los Angeles, as the other aspects of his skating aren't strong enough to back him up if an error is to occur. Lysacek's experience and ability to peak at the most necessary times should provide him an advantage over many of his top rivals.

6th: Takahiko Kozuka (Japan)- Kozuka is a finely developing talent, but simply doesn't have enough riches in his skating to take a medal back home. Issues with his quadruple toe loop, second triple axel, and regressing PCS marks look to do the trick to keep Kozuka off the podium. However, his decent consistency will pay dividends if other skaters commit errors and provide him an open door to a top 3 finish.

7th: Tomas Verner (Czech Republic)- It seems unlikely, with the way his season is going, that Verner will be able to medal in Los Angeles. Perhaps that will actually help him, although it remains an ongoing failure on Verner's part to produce two clean skates at a major championship. However, his potential ability to score well makes sure that no one forgets about him when thinking about possible medal contenders for these World Championships.

8th: Samuel Contesti (Italy)- Contesti is enjoyable to watch, has good jumps, and has no pressure going into L.A. Skating the best he has in possibly his entire career, the current European silver medalist should be pleased if he is to finish top 10 in Los Angeles, which seems likely.

9th: Yannick Ponsero (France)- Inconsistent, but has made improvements in several aspects of his skating and has brilliant jumps when he is in the zone. Much like Verner, putting together two decent programs continues to be a large plague for Ponsero, but can score well in the event when he is to go clean.

10th: Brandon Mroz (USA)- Showed dramatic improvement from the Grand Prix series to the U.S. Nationals, and while his Four Continents short was very creditable, his long was shaky once again. Mroz at his peak form should finish in the top 10, but it remains to be seen how he will battle off the nerves of his first World Championship, or whether he will have any at all.

Next Post: Sasha Cohen's chances for a comeback

That is all.

2009 U.S. Figure Skating Championships Preview-Men

It would be a lie to say that the ladies have not been the dominant discipline of skating in the United States for the last half-century. In every Olympic Games since 1956 (with the exception of 1964), there has been at least one U.S. lady on the Olympic podium, and a total of seven American ladies have had the honor of stepping atop the platform reserved for the gold medalist. Surprising it will be when come the World Championships and the 2010 Olympics, an American man will have the best chance at securing a podium finish for the United States, not an American woman. The men were the only skating discipline where an American scored a medal at the last world championships (bronze-Johnny Weir, 2008) and the only American to have won a Grand Prix Final since 2002 is Jeremy Abbott.

The last three national championships have been hijacked by the Evan Lysacek vs. Johnny Weir battle for the title. Though a far cry from the intense and often bitter rivalry between Russian Olympic champions Alexei Yagudin and Evgeni Plushenko, there was quite a climax at last year's Nationals in St. Paul when Lysacek beat Weir in a tie-breaker by virtue of winning the free skate. To add to the tension, a chilling fluff piece was shown at the opening of NBC's broadcast of the men's free. The fluff was created especially for the two rivals in which Weir commented "Outside from skating, I don't really like Evan" and Lysacek called the rivalry "war" between the two skaters. However, in a compelling twist, a relative newcomer by the name of Jeremy Abbott looks to get the biggest slice of the pie in Cleveland. With a victory at the Grand Prix Final, an event where Weir settled for bronze and Lysacek failed to even qualify for, Abbott has established himself as an exceptionally creditable threat to both men, who have a combined total of five national titles between them, whereas Abbott has none.

While a compelling three-way fight for the title should no doubt be a thrilling event to witness, the story lines for the men's event at Nationals won't end there. The inconsistent but entertaining veteran Ryan Bradley, the reliable and steady Stephen Carriere, and newcomers Branden Mroz and Adam Rippon will be other faces to keep an eye on in Cleveland when the men's short program gets under way on January 23rd, 2009.


Skaters Featured in Post:

Jeremy Abbott
Ryan Bradley
Stephen Carriere
Evan Lysacek
Branden Mroz
Adam Rippon
Johnny Weir


Jeremy Abbott

Noteworthy Results: 2008 Grand Prix Final Champion, 2008 Cup of Russia-4th, 2008 Cup of China Champion, 2008 World Championships-11th, 2008 Four Continents Championships-5th, 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-4th, 2007 Four Continents Championships-3rd, 2007 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-4th

Pros: Abbott's standing ovation from a thunderously approving crowd at this year's Grand Prix Final seemed to symbolize the transformation of Abbott's skating. Once a talented but notoriously inconsistent competitor, his victory in South Korea earned him a spot amongst the world's leading male figure skaters. Abbott, who has landed three clean quadruple toe loops in major international competition, has the three highest scores in the long program for any U.S. man this season, in addition to the two highest segment total scores (237.72 and 233.44). Lauded for his good musicality, first-rate jumping technique, and strong basic skating skills, on paper Jeremy has placed himself away from his competitors with the highest averages this season in the long program for both technical elements (79.98) and program components (74.87), the former of which being over nine points ahead of his closest rival, Johnny Weir.

Cons: Abbott has yet to even attempt the quadruple toe loop in either program this season, and did struggle at the recent Cup of Russia, singling his lutz in the short and doubling a triple toe in the long. Abbott's venture to do the quad in both programs at last year's nationals proved unsuccessful; stepping out of it on both attempts. While Abbott is not a full-fledged newcomer, having won the pewter medal at the last two nationals and participating at a world championship, this national championship will no doubt be Abbott's biggest test of his mettle in competition to date. Doing well at the Grand Prix isn't always a blessing, as proven by Matt Savoie winning the bronze (and having the highest U.S. finish) at the Grand Prix Final in 2001, and failing to make the world team. While the two scenarios aren't entirely comparable, as there were only two spots available for the world team in 2001 and Savoie would've otherwise gone (having finished with the bronze medal at nationals), it is an indication of just how slippery the ice really is, especially at nationals, considered the ultimate pressure competition of the year.

Outlook: Looking at the scores internationally this season, Abbott is the favorite to win his first U.S. national championship and is undoubtedly a shoo-in to be on his second world team. Inserting a quad into his already loaded bag of tricks could propel him to be in a position with quite a bit of breathing room to win. However, one must not forget that Abbott's quad has by no means been a walk in the park for him, and that Evan Lysacek and Johnny Weir, who have also stated their plans to include the jump, have far more experience nationally and internationally than Jeremy can claim. Abbott's performances at the last two Nationals have been neither brilliant nor dreadful, but Abbott may be required to skate nothing less than brilliantly if Weir and Lysacek skate with greater intensity than they have for the entirety of this season.


Ryan Bradley

Noteworthy Results: 2008 Trophee Eric Bombard-7th, 2008 Skate Canada-2nd, 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-5th, 2007 Trophee Eric Bombard-5th, 2007 Skate America-6th, 2007 World Championships-15th, 2007 Four Continents Championships-4th, 2007 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-2nd

Pros: The three-time U.S. Collegiate champion sets himself apart with his unique programs that are full of vitality. Bradley has beaten Abbott, Lysacek, and Weir at some point in his career, and Ryan's decision to return to his former long program to musical selections from "Mambo en Sax," "Historia De Un Amor," and "El Cumbanchero" appeared to be a wise one at this season's Skate Canada, where he finished with a silver medal with a performance that many argued was rightful of gold. He also scored personal bests at that meet in both programs, a 72.50 in the short and a 140.25 in the free.

Cons: Bradley's nervy showing at the 2007 World Figure Skating Championships, his only world championship to date, has not given U.S. Figure Skating any incentive to send him to Los Angeles this year, where assuring three Olympic spots will be a must. The same can also be said for Ryan's abysmal performance at this year's Trophee Eric Bombard, where he fell twice in the free and did two many jump combinations en route to finishing 10th in the free and 7th overall. While a crowd favorite, he has hardly been a judges favorite throughout his career, having the second-lowest PCS average in the long program among the men featured in this post this season. Bradley's TES scores are also the lowest among the top U.S. men, which is all thanks to his weak showing at Trophee Eric Bombard.

Outlook: Known for his vibrant character on the ice, one can hope that Bradley enjoyed his time in Tokyo, Japan, for his first world championships, because with Abbott's rapid improvement and Lysacek and Weir's experience, one is unlikely to be finding Bradley skating on a television set in March when worlds arrive. Although a mightily inconsistent skater, Bradley is known to be an opportunist when it comes to taking advantage of detrimental performances from his fellow rivals and stepping up to bat and delivering the goods, the most notable example being his shocking silver medal finish at the 2007 U.S. Figure Skating Championships. With Abbott, Lysacek, and Weir predicted to lock up the world team spots, Bradley will still be motivated for a strong finish here to ensure him of Grand Prix assignments next season and a possible ticket to Four Continents if one of the top three opts out of being chosen to rest for Worlds. Currently 25 years of age, Bradley's quest to make a name for himself beyond 2010 could unfortunately prove to be too little, too late.


Stephen Carriere

Noteworthy Results: 2008 NHK Trophy-6th, 2008 Cup of China-2nd, 2008 World Championships-10th, 2008 Four Continents Championships-4th, 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-3rd, 2007 NHK Trophy-3rd, 2007 Skate America-4th, 2007 World Junior Champion, 2007 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-9th, 2006 Junior Grand Prix Final Champion

Pros: Only 19 years of age and competing in his third senior national championship, the Wakefield, Massachusetts native is currently an impressive 9th on the seasons best list and among the cards that he brings to the table are his inordinate triple axels and his Tano-style double jumps for his combinations. Carriere has already been a proven commodity for the United States in his young career, placing 10th at last year's worlds which, combined with Johnny Weir's bronze medal, secured three spots for this year's World Championships. Carriere's seasons best in the long program, 145.25, is over three points higher than that of Evan Lysacek's 141.91. In addition to his great speed across the ice, Carriere is commended for his consistently cool head under pressure.

Cons: Carriere's hopes of making the Grand Prix Final after being an alternate last year descended with a poor showing at the NHK Trophy, where he singled both of his axel attempts in the long and under rotated his triple-triple in the short. His total at NHK regressed nearly 25 points from Cup of China, which is not a good sign for his preparation or political favor heading into nationals. While Carriere is immune to flutzing, Stephen has struggled with taking off of the correct edge for his flip, receiving "!" marks during both programs at Cup of China and an "e" deduction during the long at NHK. With a top-three finish being a must for Carriere to be named to the world team, his TES average this season in the long program is only 5th among the top U.S. men, and is 4th when it comes to average PCS marks in the long and seasons best totals. Unlike many of the other top men, Carriere does not compete a quadruple jump and while it is a legitimate argument to say that risking a jump isn't worth it, for Carriere it is a necessity because of his weaker artistic marks.

Outlook: Carriere, who once compared his skating to growing branches on a tree, may be forced to stop climbing up the standings when a top 3 finish and an additional trip to worlds look to be unlikely this year. Even if Carriere were to finish with a bronze medal and would thus knock one of Abbott, Weir, or Lysacek off the podium, all three of those men have more experience and reputation than that of Carriere and he could still feasibly be passed over anyway. While Carriere is an immensely talented skater, his skating is still considered by many to be fairly juniorish and his consistency is unfortunately too invaluable of a trinket to disguise his other weaknesses. However, Stephen can still get an assignment to the Four Continents Championships if one of the top three opts out of going, and Grand Prix assignments for next year should come his way barring a disastrous performance in Cleveland.


Evan Lysacek

Noteworthy Results: 2008 Skate Canada-3rd, 2008 Skate America-3rd, 2008 Four Continents Championships-3rd, 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Champion, 2007 Grand Prix Final-3rd, 2007 Cup of China-2nd, 2007 Skate America-2nd, 2007 World Figure Skating Championships-5th, 2007 Four Continents Championships Champion, 2007 U.S. Figure Skating Champion, 2006 Cup of China Champion, 2006 World Championships-3rd, 2006 Olympic Games-4th, 2005 World Championships-3rd

Pros: Every bit as experienced as the length of his 6'2'' frame, Lysacek will make his 10th trip to the national championship, and his eighth as a senior. Lysacek is decent in every area of his skating, and this event has historically been a kind one for Evan, with him being the champion for the last two years. A relentless competitor who is practically incapable of skating two sub-par programs in a competition, Lysacek has been credited with landing the quad in national and international competition, unlike Johnny Weir. Lysacek's personal best scores in the long program and overall are higher than that of Weir, and his personal best and seasons best in the short is the highest among any American skater. Lysacek is also known for his intelligence when handling the current code of points, maxing out his levels and points in non-jump elements and changing jump combinations during the program if he puts himself into a situation where such a task is necessary.

Cons: Evan received four downgrades and two wrong-edge "!" calls during the Grand Prix series, with that and more contributing to him failing to make the Grand Prix Final. Although Lysacek's PCS marks in the long at Skate America were very competitive (76.30), they regressed nearly six points to a 70.70 during his long at Skate Canada, which was a mostly clean performance. Lysacek hasn't successfully landed the quad since the Four Continents Championships in February 2008, and seems to have dropped it from his short program for good. Lysacek has been criticized in the past for his artificial artistry, arm-flailing footwork sequence extravaganzas, and, although irrelevant, his distasteful choices in costuming. Lysacek's failure to compete at worlds last year and making the Grand Prix Final this year may stunt his potential to do well at nationals, both in terms of confidence and how well he will be received from the judging panel.

Outlook: Lysacek may not be having the best season thus far, and people can complain all day long about his wonky technique on his triple axel, weaker basic skating skills, and hackneyed programs. However, one would be a fool to count the two-time world bronze medalist from the mix, and Evan has some very layered layers of breathing room to fall under before he will be unable to make the world team. As for winning the title, his forecast is fairly to partly cloudy with a definite chance of showers. To make the sun shine for him, he must get his quad consistent, start landing his triple axels without any ambiguity regarding whether the jump completed the required rotations, and to skate his programs with renewed life and intensity that has been missing this season. Having been away from competition since early November, Lysacek has surely worked vigorously to get back to the top. With reports saying how good his practice sessions have looked as of late, will practice make perfect in Cleveland?


Brandon Mroz

Noteworthy Results: 2008 Trophee Eric Bombard-5th, 2008 Skate Canada-7th, 2008 World Junior Championships-4th, 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-2nd (juniors), 2007 Junior Grand Prix Final-2nd, 2007 Junior World Championships-4th, 2007 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-2nd (juniors), 2006 Junior Grand Prix Final-2nd

Pros: A fine technical skater, Mroz currently competes a quadruple toe-loop to open his long program. Having only received one downgrade this year, and one wrong-edge call ("!" for his triple flip), Mroz has the third highest TES average this season in the long (67.36), which is higher than that of Evan Lysacek or Stephen Carriere. Mroz generally receives level 3s and 4s for her non-jump elements, which create greater cushion for error when it comes to jumping. This championship is a perfect opportunity for Mroz to establish himself as a recognizable threat for the future while having little pressure on him to do well.

Cons: Mroz cannot hold a candle to the top U.S. men with it comes to program components, specifically when it comes choreography and interpretation. A rather mundane and juniorish skater when it comes to artistry, he is unlikely to be getting the marks in that department to land on the podium, which is evidenced by him having the lowest PCS average among the top U.S. men in the long this season (58.25). Mroz has had his fair share of errors throughout the Grand Prix, having not landed the quad successfully at either Skate Canada or Trophee Eric Bombard. Brandon has also struggled with landing his second triple axel in his long program, and throughout his junior career he has been forced to step under the shadow of Adam Rippon, who beat Mroz at the Junior Grand Prix Final, Nationals (junior level), and Junior Worlds last season.

Outlook: While Brandon has a ways to go before he becomes a top level skater, he is making definitive strides in the right direction. Having upgraded to a quad and placing a second triple axel after the half-way point of his long program (as a junior he placed both triple axels at the beginning of his long) this more ambitious jump composition will be a necessity for him beyond 2010. While Mroz is hardly in contention of making the world team, a ticket to Sofia, Bulgaria, for the junior world championships is easily realistic and he will be able to further hone his talents before potentially becoming a medal contender at nationals in the future.


Adam Rippon

Noteworthy Results: 2008 Cup of Russia-5th, 2008 Skate America-8th, 2008 World Junior Champion, 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Champion (Junior), 2007 Junior Grand Prix Final Champion, 2007 Junior Grand Prix Romania Champion

Pros: Blessed with an exceptionally malleable and compact body, the 19-year-old Rippon dominated the junior circuit last year, winning the Junior Grand Prix Final, U.S. Figure Skating Championships (junior level), and the Junior World Championship. At the 2008 U.S. Nationals, Paul Wylie commented during an NBC fluff that Rippon has all of the makings to be a future champion, and with airy jumps, blue-ribbon spins, and a flair for musicality, there is undoubtedly a good deal of validity to that statement. Rippon has added a triple axel to his jumping repertoire this season and has generally been a consistent skater in competition. Many have praised Adam's intelligent decision in making a coaching change mid-season from Nikolai Morozov to Brian Orser, as Orser has fewer students to devote his attention to than Morozov.

Cons: Although age-eligible to compete at worlds, Rippon will have a mightily tough act on his back if he hopes to qualify. Rippon has received negative GOEs on all five of his triple axel attempts this season, and fell on two of them. Rippon lost at least seven potential points when he was downgraded on three jumps in the long at Skate America, and his overall showing at that competition, his first senior showing, was an uncharacteristically poor one. Adam's averages this season in the long program for technical elements and program components are 2nd and 3rd lowest, respectively, among the men featured in this post. Rippon's personal best total score of 207.93, achieved at the recent Cup of Russia, is far lower than that of Abbott (237.72), Lysacek (233.11), Weir (231.78), Carriere (218.30), and Bradley (212.75).

Outlook: A diamond in the rough, Rippon will particularly need to focus on his content to out skate the big boys. Getting his triple axel consistent, and preferably putting two of them into his long program will he a big help to the Pennsylvania native, and learning a quad wouldn't hurt, either. Rippon is certainly improving, scoring personal bests in both phases of the competition at his most recent competition, Cup of Russia. Rippon has immaculate basic skating skills, including correct edge take-offs for both his flip and lutz, and Brian Orser's immense expertise of jumps like the triple axel should further fulfill the potential that Rippon has to offer. Although unlikely to be in contention for the world team, Rippon should use this competition to learn, grow, have fun, and take risks. With a former world champion as his coach, and two-time Grand Prix Final champion Yu-Na Kim as his training partner, Rippon will be able to witness the day-to-day happenings of the expectation and preparation of one of the top ladies figure skaters in the world, which should prove useful as soon as Rippon is ready to step into the spotlight and away from the shadows of other top skaters.


Johnny Weir

Noteworthy Results: 2008 Grand Prix Final-3rd, 2008 NHK Trophy-2nd, 2008 Skate America-3rd, 2008 World Figure Skating Championships-3rd, 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-2nd, 2007 Grand Prix Final-4th, 2007 Cup of Russia Champion, 2007 Cup of China Champion, 2007 World Figure Skating Championships-8th, 2007 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-3rd, 2006 World Figure Skating Championships-7th, 2006 Olympic Games-5th, 2006 U.S. Figure Skating Champion, 2005 World Figure Skating Championships-4th, 2005 U.S. Figure Skating Champion, 2004 World Figure Skating Championships-5th, 2004 U.S. Figure Skating Champion

Pros: The only skater since Brian Boitano to have won three consecutive (2004-2006) national titles in the United States, Weir is a distinctly unique skater, from his costume and music selections to the fact that he rotates clockwise as opposed to counter-clockwise. Blessed with heavenly deep knees, assertive presentation, and a renewed fight for the top, these are all desirable cards for Weir to emerge victorious in Cleveland. Weir has butter-smooth triple axels and triple+triple combinations, and is hoping to land his quad for the first time in a major competition. Outside of the jumping department, Weir has very strong spins and footwork that routinely get in the level three and four range, and typically is a recipient of very desirable PCS marks in the U.S. and abroad.

Cons: Weir's biggest opponent at nationals may not be Jeremy Abbott, or Evan Lysacek, but rather something far more subtle called the code of points. Weir got lucky when he did too many combinations during the long at the 2006 U.S. Nationals, where he still had enough breathing room from the short to win. However, karma for his poor decision making in programs greeted him at the 2006 Olympics, where he only did one jump combination in the long and that, among other things, kept him from stepping onto the medals stand. Johnny left out a possible combination again at the 2008 U.S. Nationals, which mathematically speaking cost him a 4th title. At the world championships, Weir once again did two combinations (neither being a three-jump combo), but this time was saved by Daisuke Takahashi being credited with too many combinations, thus forfeiting his spot on the podium to Weir. As far as his skating rivals are concerned, Weir's personal best is lower than that of Lysacek and his seasons average for both TES (especially) and PCS in the long program is lower than that of Abbott. Weir is also routinely given an "e" deduction for liping his triple flip.

Outlook: Despite the retirements of Jeffrey Buttle and Stephane Lambiel and the current absence of Takahashi, the international mens field is immensely deep and Weir cannot afford anything less than a victory here to ensure him of realistic medal prospects when the world championships roll around, and the same holds true for the Olympics next year. Weir's criticism of the code of points is not without its irony, as Johnny has actually been helped by COP for the fact that the quad doesn't have to be a do-or-die jump. The reality is that fighting for every point is necessary, and with close results being commonplace an extra double toe DOES MATTER. Abbott does have the momentum heading into nationals, but by no means is Weir going to let him take an idyllic path to victory. Weir obviously hasn't started working with Galina Zmievskaya, known to be an extremely demanding coach, for nothing. His experience could prove to be his biggest asset, but per the numbers of this season Weir is a slight underdog heading into nationals, an unfamiliar position for him.



Podium Prediction:


Gold: Jeremy Abbott-Has had a phenomenal season thus far and as far as the data is concerned he shouldn't have a problem winning. However, his lack of experience compared to Weir and Lysacek and pressure from winning the Grand Prix Final will be obstacles to overcome. Seems to have the most momentum in terms of confidence and scoring favor, however.

Silver: Johnny Weir-Johnny has historically done well at nationals with a few exceptions (2003, 2007), and has enough experience to skate well despite all of the expectations surrounding him. However, his quad, and his inability to maximize his points in past programs could result in lower scores than what will be necessary to win the title.

Bronze: Evan Lysacek- Will likely look better than earlier in the season, but his quad is hit-or-miss, he has been getting more downgrades this season and his PCS have been regressing.


4th/Pewter: Stephen Carriere-Solid, consistent, and a great jumper, but isn't near to the level of the top three to have a good chance at going to worlds.

5th: Adam Rippon-Wise move to switch coaches; did extremely well at last year's nationals as a junior and it will be interesting to see if he will be intimidated or free-spirited when competing at the biggest event of his career thus far.

6th: Ryan Bradley-Has been a steady but unspectacular player at nationals for a number of years, and while his 2007 performance was a shock to all, the former statement is likely to wind up true in Cleveland.

7th: Brandon Mroz- A great opportunity for him to hold nothing back and gain feedback from judges for further improvement. With solid technical content, he should be right up there in the standings at nationals, although a podium finish is almost out of the question.


UPDATE: Kimmie Meissner has just announced her withdrawal from the U.S. Figure Skating Championships, due to a currently unspecified injury. This likely means the end of her season, and will be lucky just to get one GP assignment next year. Many are speculating that Meissner's retirement may be imminent. My new ladies prediction will be (in order from 1st to 10th): Flatt, Wagner, Zhang, Czisny, Nagasu, Liang, Bereswill, Gilles, Hacker, and Forte.


That is all.