Starting Order
Warmup Group #1
1 Wesley Campbell, Nashville FSC
2 Johnny Weir, SC of New York Inc
3 Douglas Razzano, Coyotes SC of Arizona
4 Parker Pennington, Winterhurst FSC
5 Jeremy Abbott, Detroit SC
Warmup Group #2
6 Michael Solonoski, SC of New York Inc
7 Ryan Bradley, Broadmoor SC
8 Jonathan Cassar, Detroit SC
9 Alexander Johnson, Braemar-City of Lakes FSC
10 Keegan Messing, Alaska Assoc of Figure Skaters
11 Grant Hochstein, St Clair Shores FSC
Warmup Group #3
12 Stephen Carriere, Skating Club of Boston
13 Shaun Rogers, SC of Wilmington Inc
14 Dennis Phan, All Year FSC
15 Daniel Raad, Park FSC
16 Richard Dornbush, All Year FSC
17 Evan Lysacek, DuPage FSC
Warmup Group #4
18 Brandon Mroz, Broadmoor SC
19 Armin Mahbanoozadeh, Washington FSC
20 Andrew Gonzales, All Year FSC
21 Adam Rippon, SC of New York Inc
22 Jason Wong, Skating Club of Boston
23 Tommy Steenberg, SC of Northern Virginia
9:02 CT Opening ceremonies fluff going on.
9:10 National Anthem being played.
9:12 Ice resurface going on, first warm-up group will probably start in about ten minutes
9:26 Crowd looks a bit more full than pairs SP, but it is far from sold out.
9:28 Lights are up in the arena and it looks like the competition is close to getting underway
Warm-up Group 1 on ice. Fairly big crowd responses for Abbott and Weir
Abbott-clean 3R
Commentators say that Razzano is planning a quad
Abbott and Weir in same costumes as GP events
Warm-up group 1 has concluded
Wesley Campbell
3A-leaning to right in air; fall
3Z(possible UR)+2R-landed
Circular step-slow
Spin combo- nicely centered but slow
Back sit spin to pancake to fwd sit-slow
3F-good; slight cheat
SLSS-decent
Deathdrop to sit spin to pancake-positions not low enough
Has smooth movement quality but overall movement quality is slow and a bit lifeless.
TES: 28.55
PCS: 28.43
Ded: -1.00
Total: 55.98
Johnny Weir
3Z+3T-very smooth
3A-slightly off in air but beautifully landed
3F-smallest of wobbles but well done
Sit spin combo-good speed and stretch
Circular step-good attack
Deathdrop to pancake to sit-good
SLSS-a tad slow in places but great energy
Final spin combo-excellent
Excellent skate. Weir really sold the performance and his stroking looked faster. Standing ovation.
TES: 45.32
PCS: 38.19
Total: 83.51
Rank: 1
Douglas Razzano
3A-solid
4T-fall; slight UR
3T+3T-fall out of 2nd jump
Nice low pancake and sit spin positions
Circular step sequence-slow
Deathdrop to pancake-good
SLSS-weak
Camel to sit spin to back pancake-excellent
Good spins, potentially good jumps but relatively bland program to "Claire de Lune."
TES: 36.56
PCS: 28.71
Ded: -1.00
Total: 64.27
Rank: 2
Parker Pennington
3A-fall; looked rotated
3Z(weight forward)+3T-wobble but landed
3F-great height and landing; possible lip
Good deathdrop to pancake spin combo
Circular step-good energy at beginning but loses it that toward the end
Excellent sit spin combo
SLSS-a bit simplistic, good speed
Fwd sit to bwd sit spin-very good
Good energy in parts of the program but his movement is often a bit awkward looking. Really muscled through that skate but the spins were nice.
TES: 33.33
PCS: 29.25
Ded: -1.00
Total: 61.58
Rank: 3
Jeremy Abbott
3F+3T-well done
3A-lovely
Sit spin combo-decent
3Z-slightly forward on landing but otherwise clean
Circular step-brilliant
Camel to fwd sit to bwd sit-good
SLSS-good but no the same abandonment be had in the circular step
Deathdrop to pancake-good
Very focused at the beginning but otherwise the presentation was brilliant. Great jumps, spins, and footwork. Standing ovation.
TES: 47.55
PCS: 40.30
Total: 87.85
Rank: 1
Warm-Up Group 2 on ice that includes Ryan Bradley.
Crowd response seems to indicate that Bradley did his 4T in warm-up; he was preparing for the jump but the camera turned to someone else.
4T+3T from Bradley with a wonky landing on his 4T
Warm-Up Group 2 has concluded.
Michael Solonoski
2A-landed; loose in the air; intended 3A
3Z+2T-solid
Deathdrop to sit-well centered but slow
Circular step sequence-a bit slow and bland
3R-lovely
Fwd sit to bwd sit-once again slow but centered
SLSS-smooth and fluid but very vanilla movement
Fwd sit to bwd sit to fwd catch-foot- decent
Somewhat fluid but extremely bland skating
TES: 29.45
PCS: 25.81
Total: 55.26
Rank: 6
Ryan Bradley
4T(slight UR but will likely get credited)+3T-well done
2A-stalled out too long in the air; landed fine
Circular step-very fun
2Z-bye bye Olympic dream
Spin combo with several different positions that ended with a very slow back camel
SLSS-not as much attack as he is capable of
Fwd camel(little wobble) to back sit-OK
Very disappointed
TES: 37.05
PCS: 33.58
Total: 70.63
Rank: 3
Jonathan Cassar
3Z+3T(possible UR)-fall
1F
Deathdrop to sit to pancake spin combo- a tad slow, positions not low enough
SLSS-not much use of levels but good musicality
Stunning inside spread eagle
2A-good
Decent spin combo
Circular step-good
Fwd camel to bkwd pancake-great
TES: 26.84
PCS: 29.69
Ded: -1.00
Total: 55.53
Rank: 7
Alexander Johnson
1A
3F-weight forward, possible UR, fall
3Z(hand down)+2T-landed
Step sequence-lots of turns; decent speed; keeps in character with the program
Deathdrop to sit spin-nice low position
Circular step sequence-a bit simplistic
Fwd camel to fwd sit to bkwd sit to Y-scale spin-slowed down toward end
bkwd sit to fwd sit-a tad slow but centered well
TES: 26.43
PCS: 28.86
Ded: -1.00
Total: 54.29
Rank: 9
Keegan Messing
3A-forward on landing; possible UR
3Z(off-balance)+1T-two footed
Deathdrop to sit to pancake spin combo-excellent
3F-good
SLSS-nice expression, good quick movement
Fwd camel to sit with variations to bkwd camel to bkwd sit-great
Circular step-movement is a tad awkward but he has good energy
Great final spin combination
Awkward ending
A bit unpolished but great energy, speed, and spins. Good potential and he really engaged the crowd into his skate.
TES: 34.95
PCS: 28.83
Total: 63.78
Rank: 5
Grant Hochstein
3Z+3T-good
2A-clean with leap out of the landing position
Back camel to donut to fwd camel to catch-foot- centered well but slow
3F-low; fall out; possible UR
Circular step-good
Flying sit spin-very good
SLSS-decent speed
Fwd camel to bkwd sit-decent
Elegant but bland program to the music of the ballet The Sleeping Beauty. Nice polish and good speed.
TES: 35.94
PCS: 29.61
Total: 65.55
Rank: 4
Ice resurfacing going on right now.
Warm-Up Group 3 on ice that includes Lysacek.
Lysacek in different costume with no feathers that is still basically all black.
Lysacek-good 3R, almost collided with someone while attempting 3F
The Icenetwork feed is currently down. I will post further updates when it is back up.
The feed has been stopping and starting but it is back up and seems to be OK now.
Warm-Up Group 3 concluded.
Stephen Carriere
1A
3Z(weight forward)+2T-landed
3R-beautiful
Fwd sit to pancake-little bit slow in sit spin
SLSS-good speed
Deathdrop to sit spin-good speed at beginning but loses a lot of that speed during his last spin variation in the combination
Circular step sequence-decent
Back camel (traveled slightly) to bkwd sit to fwd sit (lost balance)
Good speed and some good movement but a rather one-dimensional program. He has a lot of potential that is unfortunately unfulfilled at this point.
TES: 28.85
PCS: 29.83
Total: 58.68
Rank: 8
Shaun Rogers
4T-fell, possible UR, too slow going in
Icenetwork feed stopped
SLSS-interesting in places but labored
Final spin combo-decent but not especially difficult
Replay shows that 3A was excellent
Icenetwork feed stopped again.
Dennis Phan
3A-wobbly
3Z+2T-good
3F-great
Fwd sit to bkwd sit to pancake-a tad slow
SLSS-very fluid but slow
Pancake spin combo-very good
Circular step sequence-good
Back camel to forward sit spin (among other spin variations) in final spin combo-wobbled noticeably going into forward sit spin
Very fluid and calm skater.
TES: 31.55
PCS: 30.96
Total: 62.51
Rank: 7
Daniel Raad
2A-landed
3F(possible UR, forward, slow coming out)+2T(toe-axeled)-landed
3Z-forward, hand down
Spin combo-decent
Circular step sequence-slow
Fwd sit to bkwd sit (not low enough) to pancake (slow)
SLSS-occasionally good movement but presented with no spark at all
Back camel (position substandard) to fwd sit spin (a tad slow)
Wobble on ending pose
Program was like watching paint dry
TES: 27.07
PCS: 22.25
Total: 49.32
Rank: 15
Richard Dornbush
3Z+3T(slightly toe-axeled)-well landed
3A-fall; possible UR
Flying sit spin-good low position
3F-very good
Bkwd camel to catch-foot to fwd camel-nice positions
Circular step sequence-A little slow in places but good movement
Fwd camel to sit to back sit to fwd catch-foot- nice speed until the end
SLSS-Nice power
Good strength and attack but needs a little bit more refinement to his movement.
TES: 37.54
PCS: 29.25
Ded: -1.00
Total: 65.79
Rank: 4
Evan Lysacek
3A-fall out but rotated
3Z+3T-little forward on landing but held landing edge nicely
3F-spiral preceding it, good amplitude and landing
Circular step sequence-very dramatic and fast
Bkwd sit to pancake and fwd sit-excellent
Deathdrop to bkwd sit to pancake-good
SLSS-good
Fwd camel to sit to bkwd sit to catch-foot-good
Good recovery from mistake on 3A. Presentation is very dramatic and perhaps overly so.
TES: 44.23
PCS: 39.46
Total: 83.69
Rank: 2
Warm-Up Group 4, which includes Rippon and Mroz, is currently on the ice.
Rippon-stunning Rippin 3Z in warm-up.
Mroz just fell out of a jump (probably the quad)
Warm-up concluded.
Brandon Mroz
4T-fell out; hand down; possible UR
1A-spread eagle preceding it
Bkwd sit to fwd sit spin-good
3Z+3T-great
Deathdrop to sit spin
SLSS-Not completely invested in the music but some occasional good moments
Circular step-bland
Final spin combo that ended with a back sit spin-decent
Not a terrible program but he looks very tense while doing some of the choreography. A rough skate for him jumping wise and the replay seems to indicate that his 4T will be downgraded.
TES: 33.99
PCS: 30.46
Total: 64.45
Rank: 7
Armin Mahbanoozadeh
3A-slight wobble but good
3F+3T-very good
3Z-slightly forward but solid
Good spin combo
Nice soft knees in footwork; could look up at audience more
Spin combination-good
SLSS-Decent, needs to make movement bigger
Final spin combo-traveled slightly on camel but otherwise OK
Very polished and fluid performance.
TES: 41.16
PCS: 31.40
Total: 72.56
Rank: 4
Andrew Gonzales
3F(slightly UR)+3T-landed
2A-landed
3Z-possible UR; landed
Back sit spin to fwd sit spin-good speed
Circular step sequence-good movement but doesn't use the entire rink
Good camel to sit spin to bkwd sit spin
SLSS-Nice energy
Gonzales has quite a few decent qualities to his skating but nothing completely stands out. His speed is very creditable no matter what he is doing, however.
TES: 33.38
PCS: 29.00
Total: 62.38
Rank: 12 (loud boos from audience)
Adam Rippon
3F+3T-good
3A-slight cheat but will likely get credited; landed well
Superb donut spin
Circular step-Nice fluidity
Rippon 2Z-touches his hands to the boards
SLSS-fall at beginning
Bkwd camel to layback catch-foot - good
Fwd sit to bkwd sit to pancake-good
TES: 38.06
PCS: 35.85
Ded: -1.00
Total: 72.91
Rank: 4
Jason Wong
3Z+2T+Combo-Step out of 3Z, will not get credit for 2T
3A-excellent
Back pancake to fwd sit-good
Circular step sequence-a bit bland
3S-low but landed
Deathdrop to sit spin-traveled slightly at beginning and completely fumbled exit
SLSS-good expression but footwork is simplistic
Final spin combo-solid
Very pleased with performance.
TES: 33.49
PCS: 31.07
Total: 64.56
Rank: 9
Tommy Steenberg
3A-two footed, possible UR
3Z+3R-turn in-between, UR and double footed 3R
2F-fall
Bkwd sit to fwd sit to pancake-good
Circular step-good
Fwd camel to upright to bkwd pancake spin-decent speed
Good flexibility and has a fairly natural moving quality but jumps were very poor tonight.
TES: 30.86
PCS: 29.31
Ded: -1.00
Total: 59.17
Rank: 16
Results here
Showing posts with label Ryan Bradley. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ryan Bradley. Show all posts
Friday, January 15, 2010
Saturday, November 14, 2009
2009 Skate America Mens FS Live Commentary
Start Order
Warm-Up Group 1
1 Igor MACYPURA SVK
12 51.45
2 Tomas VERNER CZE
11 55.90
3 Kevin REYNOLDS CAN
10 59.05
4 Jialiang WU CHN
9 59.16
5 Ryan BRADLEY USA
8 59.24
6 Yasuharu NANRI JPN
7 59.35
Warm-Up Group 2
7 Andrei LUTAI RUS
6 60.64
8 Shawn SAWYER CAN
5 65.95
9 Adrian SCHULTHEISS SWE
4 67.55
10 Brandon MROZ USA
3 71.40
11 Florent AMODIO FRA
2 72.65
12 Evan LYSACEK USA
1 79.17
7:58 CT Judges have been announced. First warm-up group out on ice.
Reynolds-clean 3R; dressed in black and gold
Renyolds-fall on 3F in warm-up
Wu-fall out of 3R
Nanri-lovely 3Z
Bradley-popped axel
Verner-3A(fall)
Verner-turned 4T into triple; fell out
Bradley-landed 4T+2T
Warm-up concluded.
Igor Macypura (Slovak Republic)
3A+3T-good height; well done
3Z+3T-barely held onto 3T but landed
Step sequence slow
Good low sit spin
Spin combo traveled
1R-landed on two feet
1A-slow entrance
1F-totally off in air; landed on two feet
2A-almost no preparation or speed going into it but landed
3S-fall
No energy left
2A+2A+SEQ-decent
Extremely pedestrian choreography. No speed whatsoever throughout program.
TES: 47.07
PCS: 46.50
Ded: -1.00
Total: 92.57
Grand Total: 144.02
Tomas Verner (Czech Republic)
4T-fall but looked roated
3T-opened up in air but landed
3A-nice
Footwork good but not as fast nor as expressive as he is capable of executing that element
Sit spin position could have more stretch
3A+2T-good
3Z-nice
3F-good, maybe lipped
2S
3R+2T-good
Straight line step sequence-a bit slow; footwork is good, however
Final compo spin-traveled slightly
Very methodically skated program. Not much spark or speed but much better than Friday.
TES: 68.06
PCS: 71.10
Ded: -1.00
Total: 138.16
Grand Total: 194.06
Rank: 1
Kevin Reynolds (Canada)
4S-good
2T(intended 4T+3T)
3A-(hunched way forward on entrance; landed jump while leaning forward on landing)+2T
3R+3T(toe-axeled)-landed
3A-possible UR
3S-weight back but well controlled landing
Footwork-needs to get down into ice more; more speed needed
3Z-flutzed
3F+3T(toe-axeled)+2R-landed
Straight line step sequence-movement aren't bad but don't reflect music
Traveled in final spin combo
Has improved slightly artistically; his short program demonstrates that more so than his long.
TES: 72.28
PCS: 58.90
Total: 131.18
Grand Total: 190.23
Rank: 2
Jialiang Wu (China)
3Z+3T-Weight was slightly back but adjusted very well in the air; nicely done
3A+2T-great
2A+2T+2R-nice
Spin combo fairly slow
Hunches over while stroking
3R-two footed; fell out
1A
3F-awkward landing; possibly double footed
2S
Speed and energy is completely gone
Simplistic footwork
Straight line step sequence-extremely slow; void of any actual steps
3Z-hard fall to the side
No presentation.
TES: 55.00
PCS: 51.10
Ded: -1.00
Total: 105.10
Grand Total: 164.26
Rank: 3
Ryan Bradley (USA)
4T-good
4T+2T-slightly forward on landing of 4T but landed
Great expression in footwork
3A-leaning to the left slightly but well controlled landing
3Z-great landing and finishing arm position
Straight line step sequence-slow and not as difficult as others' step sequences but well-executed; good energy
3F-barely picked in; fell out of
3R-good; little bit slow coming out
1S+3T-way off on salchow but centered himself and pulled off 3T well
2Z+2T+2T-landed but slow going in and out of jumping pass
His skating skills are fairly poor but he really does all that he can with expressing to the crowd. Good skate.
TES: 70.38
PCS: 68.50
Total: 138.88
Grand Total: 198.12
Rank: 1
Yasuharu Nanri (Japan)
3A+3T-good
3Z-little slow coming out of it but solid
3A- fall
Good centering in spin combo but sit spin not low enough
3R-struggled to solidify landing but clean
2A+2T+2T-landed
3F-nice height; forward on landing; possibly lipped
Footwork OK but simplistic; very slow during the last part of it
3F-heavily two-footed; looked lipped; perhaps slightly UR
3S-turned out
Circular step sequence-good movement; could be faster
Adequate skating skills but needs to keep up the speed of the program as it continues. Relatively bland presentation.
TES: 51.69
PCS: 58.80
Ded: -1.00
Total: 109.49
Grand Total: 168.84
Rank: 4
Warm-Up Group 2 on ice.
Lutai-good 3R+2T
Mroz-Good 3F+2T+2R
Amodio-Low but landed 3R
Lysacek-Good 3A
Lysacek-Good 3S
Mroz-Fall on 4T
Warm-up concluded.
Andrei Lutai (Russia)
3A-little forward but landed
4T-hands down; fall out
3A-fall; will only be credited as a sequence because neither 3A was in combination
2Z+2T
Good straight line step
Good speed in start of spin combo; slowed down and traveled towards the end
3F-good
3R-fall
2A-good
Circular step sequence-slow
Last sit spin to pancake not low enough
3S-landed awkwardly but held on
Some good moments in the choreography but quite bland after that.
TES: 49.15
PCS: 60.00
Ded: -2.00
Total: 107.15
Grand Total: 167.79
Rank: 5
Shawn Sawyer (Canada)
3A-two-footed; turned out; possible UR
3F+3T-good
3Z-leaning forward on landing; possible flutz
Great split jump transition
Great musicality in step sequence
3R-good with split jump preceding it
2A+3T-hand down
Great spiral
3F-good
2A-turned out
Very entertaining; nicely executed straight line step sequence
3S(scratchy, possibly two-footed landing)+2T+2R-landed
Spin combo a tad slow; traveling; great positions
Very entertaining and polished program.
TES: 68.86
PCS: 69.10
Total: 137.96
Grand Total: 203.91
Rank: 1
Adrian Schultheiss (Sweden)
3F+3T-fall out
3A+2T-little awkward going into 2T but landed
3Z-good
Quirky step sequence; very contemporary
3A-fell out of; possible UR
2A-good
3R-good
3S-good
3Z+2T-very low 2T; fell out of
Straight line step sequence-sluggish
Music is very different but the program itself, with the exception of a few parts, is actually quite generic. Needs to improve speed, particularly when he is entering or coming out of a jump. Noticeable improvement from his performance at this event last year.
TES: 56.32
PCS: 61.20
Total: 117.52
Grand Total: 185.07
Rank: 5
Brandon Mroz (USA)
4T-fall; looked rotated
1A+2T
3F(very slow coming out)+2T+2T(hopped out)-landed
Improved footwork; good quick turns
2A+2T-spread eagle coming before it; intended 3A+2T
3Z+2T-very close to the boards but landed
3R-put free leg down very quickly
2S
2Z
Decent straight line step sequence
Skating skills have improved but jumps were just not there tonight. A poor warm-up directly translated to his skate.
TES: 71.40
PCS: 61.40
Ded: -1.00
Total: 102.60
Grand Total: 174.00
Rank: 6
Florent Amodio (France)
2A-intended 4S
3A-held on
3R-nice
Very creative and expressive footwork
3A-turned out; will only be counted as a sequence
Random fall while stroking but comically shrugs it off
3S+3T-barely held on
3Z-step out
3F-double footed
3Z-fell out of; will only be counted as a sequence
Very quirky skater like Preaubert, Contesti, and Bradley, but has superior skating skills to them all. Good speed but his jumps were quite shaky tonight.
TES: 57.03
PCS: 68.30
Ded: -1.00
Total: 124.93
Grand Total: 197.58
Rank: 3
Evan Lysacek (USA)
3Z+3T-spread eagle going in; excellent
3A-swingy landing but looked rotated
3S-weight back; fall out
Step sequence-Good musicality but could use more motion throughout his entire body as opposed to doing so many arm movements
Nice sit spin to pancake
3A(possible UR)+2T-landed
3R-nice
3F(possible UR)+2T+2R-good landing with spiral preceding jumping pass
3Z-good
2A-good
Great straight line step sequence
Very expressive program
TES: 77.55
PCS: 81.00
Total: 158.55
Grand Total: 237.72
Rank: 1
Overall Standings
1 Evan LYSACEK USA 237.72 1 1
2 Shawn SAWYER CAN 203.91 5 4
3 Ryan BRADLEY USA 198.12 8 2
4 Florent AMODIO FRA 197.58 2 6
5 Tomas VERNER CZE 194.06 11 3
6 Kevin REYNOLDS CAN 190.23 10 5
7 Adrian SCHULTHEISS SWE 185.07 4 7
8 Brandon MROZ USA 174.00 3 11
9 Yasuharu NANRI JPN 168.84 7 8
10 Andrei LUTAI RUS 167.79 6 9
11 Jialiang WU CHN 164.26 9 10
12 Igor MACYPURA SVK 144.02 12 12
That is all.
Warm-Up Group 1
1 Igor MACYPURA SVK
12 51.45
2 Tomas VERNER CZE
11 55.90
3 Kevin REYNOLDS CAN
10 59.05
4 Jialiang WU CHN
9 59.16
5 Ryan BRADLEY USA
8 59.24
6 Yasuharu NANRI JPN
7 59.35
Warm-Up Group 2
7 Andrei LUTAI RUS
6 60.64
8 Shawn SAWYER CAN
5 65.95
9 Adrian SCHULTHEISS SWE
4 67.55
10 Brandon MROZ USA
3 71.40
11 Florent AMODIO FRA
2 72.65
12 Evan LYSACEK USA
1 79.17
7:58 CT Judges have been announced. First warm-up group out on ice.
Reynolds-clean 3R; dressed in black and gold
Renyolds-fall on 3F in warm-up
Wu-fall out of 3R
Nanri-lovely 3Z
Bradley-popped axel
Verner-3A(fall)
Verner-turned 4T into triple; fell out
Bradley-landed 4T+2T
Warm-up concluded.
Igor Macypura (Slovak Republic)
3A+3T-good height; well done
3Z+3T-barely held onto 3T but landed
Step sequence slow
Good low sit spin
Spin combo traveled
1R-landed on two feet
1A-slow entrance
1F-totally off in air; landed on two feet
2A-almost no preparation or speed going into it but landed
3S-fall
No energy left
2A+2A+SEQ-decent
Extremely pedestrian choreography. No speed whatsoever throughout program.
TES: 47.07
PCS: 46.50
Ded: -1.00
Total: 92.57
Grand Total: 144.02
Tomas Verner (Czech Republic)
4T-fall but looked roated
3T-opened up in air but landed
3A-nice
Footwork good but not as fast nor as expressive as he is capable of executing that element
Sit spin position could have more stretch
3A+2T-good
3Z-nice
3F-good, maybe lipped
2S
3R+2T-good
Straight line step sequence-a bit slow; footwork is good, however
Final compo spin-traveled slightly
Very methodically skated program. Not much spark or speed but much better than Friday.
TES: 68.06
PCS: 71.10
Ded: -1.00
Total: 138.16
Grand Total: 194.06
Rank: 1
Kevin Reynolds (Canada)
4S-good
2T(intended 4T+3T)
3A-(hunched way forward on entrance; landed jump while leaning forward on landing)+2T
3R+3T(toe-axeled)-landed
3A-possible UR
3S-weight back but well controlled landing
Footwork-needs to get down into ice more; more speed needed
3Z-flutzed
3F+3T(toe-axeled)+2R-landed
Straight line step sequence-movement aren't bad but don't reflect music
Traveled in final spin combo
Has improved slightly artistically; his short program demonstrates that more so than his long.
TES: 72.28
PCS: 58.90
Total: 131.18
Grand Total: 190.23
Rank: 2
Jialiang Wu (China)
3Z+3T-Weight was slightly back but adjusted very well in the air; nicely done
3A+2T-great
2A+2T+2R-nice
Spin combo fairly slow
Hunches over while stroking
3R-two footed; fell out
1A
3F-awkward landing; possibly double footed
2S
Speed and energy is completely gone
Simplistic footwork
Straight line step sequence-extremely slow; void of any actual steps
3Z-hard fall to the side
No presentation.
TES: 55.00
PCS: 51.10
Ded: -1.00
Total: 105.10
Grand Total: 164.26
Rank: 3
Ryan Bradley (USA)
4T-good
4T+2T-slightly forward on landing of 4T but landed
Great expression in footwork
3A-leaning to the left slightly but well controlled landing
3Z-great landing and finishing arm position
Straight line step sequence-slow and not as difficult as others' step sequences but well-executed; good energy
3F-barely picked in; fell out of
3R-good; little bit slow coming out
1S+3T-way off on salchow but centered himself and pulled off 3T well
2Z+2T+2T-landed but slow going in and out of jumping pass
His skating skills are fairly poor but he really does all that he can with expressing to the crowd. Good skate.
TES: 70.38
PCS: 68.50
Total: 138.88
Grand Total: 198.12
Rank: 1
Yasuharu Nanri (Japan)
3A+3T-good
3Z-little slow coming out of it but solid
3A- fall
Good centering in spin combo but sit spin not low enough
3R-struggled to solidify landing but clean
2A+2T+2T-landed
3F-nice height; forward on landing; possibly lipped
Footwork OK but simplistic; very slow during the last part of it
3F-heavily two-footed; looked lipped; perhaps slightly UR
3S-turned out
Circular step sequence-good movement; could be faster
Adequate skating skills but needs to keep up the speed of the program as it continues. Relatively bland presentation.
TES: 51.69
PCS: 58.80
Ded: -1.00
Total: 109.49
Grand Total: 168.84
Rank: 4
Warm-Up Group 2 on ice.
Lutai-good 3R+2T
Mroz-Good 3F+2T+2R
Amodio-Low but landed 3R
Lysacek-Good 3A
Lysacek-Good 3S
Mroz-Fall on 4T
Warm-up concluded.
Andrei Lutai (Russia)
3A-little forward but landed
4T-hands down; fall out
3A-fall; will only be credited as a sequence because neither 3A was in combination
2Z+2T
Good straight line step
Good speed in start of spin combo; slowed down and traveled towards the end
3F-good
3R-fall
2A-good
Circular step sequence-slow
Last sit spin to pancake not low enough
3S-landed awkwardly but held on
Some good moments in the choreography but quite bland after that.
TES: 49.15
PCS: 60.00
Ded: -2.00
Total: 107.15
Grand Total: 167.79
Rank: 5
Shawn Sawyer (Canada)
3A-two-footed; turned out; possible UR
3F+3T-good
3Z-leaning forward on landing; possible flutz
Great split jump transition
Great musicality in step sequence
3R-good with split jump preceding it
2A+3T-hand down
Great spiral
3F-good
2A-turned out
Very entertaining; nicely executed straight line step sequence
3S(scratchy, possibly two-footed landing)+2T+2R-landed
Spin combo a tad slow; traveling; great positions
Very entertaining and polished program.
TES: 68.86
PCS: 69.10
Total: 137.96
Grand Total: 203.91
Rank: 1
Adrian Schultheiss (Sweden)
3F+3T-fall out
3A+2T-little awkward going into 2T but landed
3Z-good
Quirky step sequence; very contemporary
3A-fell out of; possible UR
2A-good
3R-good
3S-good
3Z+2T-very low 2T; fell out of
Straight line step sequence-sluggish
Music is very different but the program itself, with the exception of a few parts, is actually quite generic. Needs to improve speed, particularly when he is entering or coming out of a jump. Noticeable improvement from his performance at this event last year.
TES: 56.32
PCS: 61.20
Total: 117.52
Grand Total: 185.07
Rank: 5
Brandon Mroz (USA)
4T-fall; looked rotated
1A+2T
3F(very slow coming out)+2T+2T(hopped out)-landed
Improved footwork; good quick turns
2A+2T-spread eagle coming before it; intended 3A+2T
3Z+2T-very close to the boards but landed
3R-put free leg down very quickly
2S
2Z
Decent straight line step sequence
Skating skills have improved but jumps were just not there tonight. A poor warm-up directly translated to his skate.
TES: 71.40
PCS: 61.40
Ded: -1.00
Total: 102.60
Grand Total: 174.00
Rank: 6
Florent Amodio (France)
2A-intended 4S
3A-held on
3R-nice
Very creative and expressive footwork
3A-turned out; will only be counted as a sequence
Random fall while stroking but comically shrugs it off
3S+3T-barely held on
3Z-step out
3F-double footed
3Z-fell out of; will only be counted as a sequence
Very quirky skater like Preaubert, Contesti, and Bradley, but has superior skating skills to them all. Good speed but his jumps were quite shaky tonight.
TES: 57.03
PCS: 68.30
Ded: -1.00
Total: 124.93
Grand Total: 197.58
Rank: 3
Evan Lysacek (USA)
3Z+3T-spread eagle going in; excellent
3A-swingy landing but looked rotated
3S-weight back; fall out
Step sequence-Good musicality but could use more motion throughout his entire body as opposed to doing so many arm movements
Nice sit spin to pancake
3A(possible UR)+2T-landed
3R-nice
3F(possible UR)+2T+2R-good landing with spiral preceding jumping pass
3Z-good
2A-good
Great straight line step sequence
Very expressive program
TES: 77.55
PCS: 81.00
Total: 158.55
Grand Total: 237.72
Rank: 1
Overall Standings
1 Evan LYSACEK USA 237.72 1 1
2 Shawn SAWYER CAN 203.91 5 4
3 Ryan BRADLEY USA 198.12 8 2
4 Florent AMODIO FRA 197.58 2 6
5 Tomas VERNER CZE 194.06 11 3
6 Kevin REYNOLDS CAN 190.23 10 5
7 Adrian SCHULTHEISS SWE 185.07 4 7
8 Brandon MROZ USA 174.00 3 11
9 Yasuharu NANRI JPN 168.84 7 8
10 Andrei LUTAI RUS 167.79 6 9
11 Jialiang WU CHN 164.26 9 10
12 Igor MACYPURA SVK 144.02 12 12
That is all.
Friday, November 13, 2009
2009 Skate America Mens SP Live Commentary
Start Order
Warm-Up Group 1
1 Igor MACYPURA SVK
2 Andrei LUTAI RUS
3 Jialiang WU CHN
4 Ryan BRADLEY USA
5 Shawn SAWYER CAN
6 Yasuharu NANRI JPN
Warm-Up Group 2
7 Florent AMODIO FRA
8 Adrian SCHULTHEISS SWE
9 Kevin REYNOLDS CAN
10 Brandon MROZ USA
11 Evan LYSACEK USA
12 Tomas VERNER CZE
7:59 CT. Judges being announced. Todd Sand is technical specialist.
Warm-Up Group 1 on ice. Bezic and Joyce also commentating this competition.
Macypura and Sawyer almost collided.
Bradley landed 3A in warm-up. Sawyer landed 3A in warm-up with a cheat on landing.
Nanri-turn out on 3A.
Nanri-Did 3A again; leaning to the side and possibly UR but held the landing position.
Warm-Up Group 1 concluded.
Karen Kwan in attendance coaching Igor Macypura.
Igor Macypura (Slovakia)
Blues for Klook music
3A-fall; possible UR
3F-intended combo but no speed coming out of 3F and therefore didn't tack on a 2nd jump
3Z+3T-little speed coming out of either jump but completed
Very slow footwork in both step sequences
Camel spin traveled slightly
Extremely bland program
TES: 29.00
PCS: 24.45
Ded: -2.00
Total: 51.45
Andrei Lutai (Russia)
3A-great
3T+2T-intended 4T+3T; opened up in the air; slow entrance
3Z-jump traveled back instead of up, but landed
Slight slip in footwork
Traveled slightly in spin combo and missed the camel part of the combo spin because he appeared off-balance
Not low enough in the deathdrop to sit spin at the end
Skate needed much more speed, attack, and energy. Slightly more interesting than Macypura's.
TES: 33.04
PCS: 28.60
Ded: -1.00
Total: 60.64
Rank: 2
Jiuliang Wu (China)
3Z+3T-good; slightly pre-rotated 3T
3A-good height; turned out
3R-looked slightly UR but landed
Slow step sequence
Nice amplitude in deathdrop; stumble on exit
Decent straight line step sequence and final spin combo
Definitely could use more speed and bigger movements.
TES: 33.06
PCS: 26.10
Total: 59.10
Rank: 2
Ryan Bradley (USA)
4T+2T+SEQ-UR and fall out on 4T; stepped in-between jumps so will not receive credit for the 2T
3A-swingy entrance; good height but a fall out on landing
3Z-nice arm position on landing
Combo spin-slow
Excellent step sequences; great personality
As always a very quirky presentation from Ryan Bradley; he is able to mask some of his weaknesses in skating skills and transitions in this short program versus the long program. Relatively poor posture. Entertaining program but I have seen him emote to the audience even more than he did tonight.
TES: 30.94
PCS: 29.30
Ded: -1.00
Total: 59.24
Rank: 2
Shawn Sawyer (Canada)
Good speed
3A-fall out; looked slightly UR
3F(slightly leaning)+3T-landed
2Z-opened up on 1st revolution
Great extension in all spin positions
Good incorporation of upper body in circular step sequence; great musicality
Straight line step sequence-not quite as dynamic as circular footwork but still very good
Great extension in Y-scale spin
Dynamic finish
Really great program; a shame about the mistakes technically. Very musical and showed a lot of attention to detail with artistry.
TES: 34.60
PCS: 31.35
Total: 65.95
Rank: 1
Yasuharu Nanri (Japan)
3A-nice
3F+3T-possible double foot; slightly UR on 2nd jump
2Z-way too far forward in air; two-footed
Step sequence decent; could have just a bit more speed and presentation
Deathrop to sit spin-sit spin could be a bit lower
Circular step sequence good not great
Overall the program is decent on pretty much every level but there is nothing unique or exciting in it.
TES: 29.30
PCS: 30.05
Total: 59.35
Rank: 3
Warm-Up Group 2 on ice. Reynolds fall on 2Z in warm-up- not good for someone so reliant on jumps. How the hell is Schultheiss in this top group of two?
Reynolds landed what looked like a 3A. Amodio-low but landed 3F.
Mroz-fall out on 4T.
Warm-up concluded.
Florent Amodio (France)
Good speed
3A-nice; lovely twizzle series immediately following it
3Z-somewhat off but landed
3S+3T-good
Great turning elements in footwork and very quick, continuous movement
Flying sit spin-not low enough and traveled slightly
Great expression in final step sequence
Very finely put together program.
TES: 39.90
PCS: 32.75
Total: 72.65
Rank: 1
Adrian Schultheiss (Sweden)
3Z+3T(possible UR)-slightly rough landing
3A-little speed coming out but landed
Great speed in combo spin
Good movement in footwork but slow
3F-good
Straight line step sequence-decent
Flying sit spin-nice and low; decent speed
Well I'll eat my words from earlier! Not a stunning performance by any means but a huge improvement from his work at this competition last year. Shows more polish and refinement in his choreography than he has previously but the height and speed of his jumps need improving.
TES: 37.80
PCS: 30.75
Ded: -1.00
Total: 67.55
Rank: 2
Kevin Reynolds (Canada)
4S(double footed)+3T-landed
1A-slowed down completely on entrance
3Z-little low but landed
Good deathdrop to sit spin to pancake
Footwork-little slow, expression has improved
Straight line step sequence-musical but again a bit slow
Artistry has definitely improved, but an unfortunate and peculiar mistake on the 3A attempt. Fun program but didn't sell it to its full potential.
TES: 28.70
PCS: 30.35
Total: 59.05
Rank: 8
Brandon Mroz (USA)
4T+3T(turn in-between)-struggled but good fight
3A-turned out; possible slight UR
Good low sit spin
3Z-very nice
Movement in footwork is good but his expression does not relate to the fun nature of the music at all. Serious music seems to suit him a bit better.
TES: 40.90
PCS: 30.50
Total: 71.40
Rank: 2
Evan Lysacek (USA)
3A-looked UR
3Z+3T-slight UR on 2nd jump but landed well
3F-very good but lipped slightly
Good flexibility in pancake through to sit spin
Lots of expression in footwork; good speed; arm flailing at full force
Very well put together program with excellent energy
TES: 39.62
PCS: 39.55
Total: 79.17
Rank: 1
Tomas Verner (Czech Republic)
4T-fall; UR
2A-popped open but landed
2Z
Nice speed in footwork but spark is gone
Quirky expressions but mistakes have diminished overall impression of the program
Complete disaster
Huth seems to be ultimate coach of headcases: Dytrt, Kostner, Verner
TES: 21.80
PCS: 35.10
Ded: -1.00
Total: 55.90
Rank: 11
1 Evan LYSACEK USA 79.17 1 (Would be 83.87 if 3A had gotten ratified, although it was rightfully not)
2 Florent AMODIO FRA 72.65 2
3 Brandon MROZ USA 71.40 3
4 Adrian SCHULTHEISS SWE 67.55 4
5 Shawn SAWYER CAN 65.95 5
6 Andrei LUTAI RUS 60.64 6
7 Yasuharu NANRI JPN 59.35 7
8 Ryan BRADLEY USA 59.24 8
9 Jialiang WU CHN 59.16 9
10 Kevin REYNOLDS CAN 59.05 10
11 Tomas VERNER CZE 55.90 11
12 Igor MACYPURA SVK 51.45 12
That is all.
Warm-Up Group 1
1 Igor MACYPURA SVK
2 Andrei LUTAI RUS
3 Jialiang WU CHN
4 Ryan BRADLEY USA
5 Shawn SAWYER CAN
6 Yasuharu NANRI JPN
Warm-Up Group 2
7 Florent AMODIO FRA
8 Adrian SCHULTHEISS SWE
9 Kevin REYNOLDS CAN
10 Brandon MROZ USA
11 Evan LYSACEK USA
12 Tomas VERNER CZE
7:59 CT. Judges being announced. Todd Sand is technical specialist.
Warm-Up Group 1 on ice. Bezic and Joyce also commentating this competition.
Macypura and Sawyer almost collided.
Bradley landed 3A in warm-up. Sawyer landed 3A in warm-up with a cheat on landing.
Nanri-turn out on 3A.
Nanri-Did 3A again; leaning to the side and possibly UR but held the landing position.
Warm-Up Group 1 concluded.
Karen Kwan in attendance coaching Igor Macypura.
Igor Macypura (Slovakia)
Blues for Klook music
3A-fall; possible UR
3F-intended combo but no speed coming out of 3F and therefore didn't tack on a 2nd jump
3Z+3T-little speed coming out of either jump but completed
Very slow footwork in both step sequences
Camel spin traveled slightly
Extremely bland program
TES: 29.00
PCS: 24.45
Ded: -2.00
Total: 51.45
Andrei Lutai (Russia)
3A-great
3T+2T-intended 4T+3T; opened up in the air; slow entrance
3Z-jump traveled back instead of up, but landed
Slight slip in footwork
Traveled slightly in spin combo and missed the camel part of the combo spin because he appeared off-balance
Not low enough in the deathdrop to sit spin at the end
Skate needed much more speed, attack, and energy. Slightly more interesting than Macypura's.
TES: 33.04
PCS: 28.60
Ded: -1.00
Total: 60.64
Rank: 2
Jiuliang Wu (China)
3Z+3T-good; slightly pre-rotated 3T
3A-good height; turned out
3R-looked slightly UR but landed
Slow step sequence
Nice amplitude in deathdrop; stumble on exit
Decent straight line step sequence and final spin combo
Definitely could use more speed and bigger movements.
TES: 33.06
PCS: 26.10
Total: 59.10
Rank: 2
Ryan Bradley (USA)
4T+2T+SEQ-UR and fall out on 4T; stepped in-between jumps so will not receive credit for the 2T
3A-swingy entrance; good height but a fall out on landing
3Z-nice arm position on landing
Combo spin-slow
Excellent step sequences; great personality
As always a very quirky presentation from Ryan Bradley; he is able to mask some of his weaknesses in skating skills and transitions in this short program versus the long program. Relatively poor posture. Entertaining program but I have seen him emote to the audience even more than he did tonight.
TES: 30.94
PCS: 29.30
Ded: -1.00
Total: 59.24
Rank: 2
Shawn Sawyer (Canada)
Good speed
3A-fall out; looked slightly UR
3F(slightly leaning)+3T-landed
2Z-opened up on 1st revolution
Great extension in all spin positions
Good incorporation of upper body in circular step sequence; great musicality
Straight line step sequence-not quite as dynamic as circular footwork but still very good
Great extension in Y-scale spin
Dynamic finish
Really great program; a shame about the mistakes technically. Very musical and showed a lot of attention to detail with artistry.
TES: 34.60
PCS: 31.35
Total: 65.95
Rank: 1
Yasuharu Nanri (Japan)
3A-nice
3F+3T-possible double foot; slightly UR on 2nd jump
2Z-way too far forward in air; two-footed
Step sequence decent; could have just a bit more speed and presentation
Deathrop to sit spin-sit spin could be a bit lower
Circular step sequence good not great
Overall the program is decent on pretty much every level but there is nothing unique or exciting in it.
TES: 29.30
PCS: 30.05
Total: 59.35
Rank: 3
Warm-Up Group 2 on ice. Reynolds fall on 2Z in warm-up- not good for someone so reliant on jumps. How the hell is Schultheiss in this top group of two?
Reynolds landed what looked like a 3A. Amodio-low but landed 3F.
Mroz-fall out on 4T.
Warm-up concluded.
Florent Amodio (France)
Good speed
3A-nice; lovely twizzle series immediately following it
3Z-somewhat off but landed
3S+3T-good
Great turning elements in footwork and very quick, continuous movement
Flying sit spin-not low enough and traveled slightly
Great expression in final step sequence
Very finely put together program.
TES: 39.90
PCS: 32.75
Total: 72.65
Rank: 1
Adrian Schultheiss (Sweden)
3Z+3T(possible UR)-slightly rough landing
3A-little speed coming out but landed
Great speed in combo spin
Good movement in footwork but slow
3F-good
Straight line step sequence-decent
Flying sit spin-nice and low; decent speed
Well I'll eat my words from earlier! Not a stunning performance by any means but a huge improvement from his work at this competition last year. Shows more polish and refinement in his choreography than he has previously but the height and speed of his jumps need improving.
TES: 37.80
PCS: 30.75
Ded: -1.00
Total: 67.55
Rank: 2
Kevin Reynolds (Canada)
4S(double footed)+3T-landed
1A-slowed down completely on entrance
3Z-little low but landed
Good deathdrop to sit spin to pancake
Footwork-little slow, expression has improved
Straight line step sequence-musical but again a bit slow
Artistry has definitely improved, but an unfortunate and peculiar mistake on the 3A attempt. Fun program but didn't sell it to its full potential.
TES: 28.70
PCS: 30.35
Total: 59.05
Rank: 8
Brandon Mroz (USA)
4T+3T(turn in-between)-struggled but good fight
3A-turned out; possible slight UR
Good low sit spin
3Z-very nice
Movement in footwork is good but his expression does not relate to the fun nature of the music at all. Serious music seems to suit him a bit better.
TES: 40.90
PCS: 30.50
Total: 71.40
Rank: 2
Evan Lysacek (USA)
3A-looked UR
3Z+3T-slight UR on 2nd jump but landed well
3F-very good but lipped slightly
Good flexibility in pancake through to sit spin
Lots of expression in footwork; good speed; arm flailing at full force
Very well put together program with excellent energy
TES: 39.62
PCS: 39.55
Total: 79.17
Rank: 1
Tomas Verner (Czech Republic)
4T-fall; UR
2A-popped open but landed
2Z
Nice speed in footwork but spark is gone
Quirky expressions but mistakes have diminished overall impression of the program
Complete disaster
Huth seems to be ultimate coach of headcases: Dytrt, Kostner, Verner
TES: 21.80
PCS: 35.10
Ded: -1.00
Total: 55.90
Rank: 11
1 Evan LYSACEK USA 79.17 1 (Would be 83.87 if 3A had gotten ratified, although it was rightfully not)
2 Florent AMODIO FRA 72.65 2
3 Brandon MROZ USA 71.40 3
4 Adrian SCHULTHEISS SWE 67.55 4
5 Shawn SAWYER CAN 65.95 5
6 Andrei LUTAI RUS 60.64 6
7 Yasuharu NANRI JPN 59.35 7
8 Ryan BRADLEY USA 59.24 8
9 Jialiang WU CHN 59.16 9
10 Kevin REYNOLDS CAN 59.05 10
11 Tomas VERNER CZE 55.90 11
12 Igor MACYPURA SVK 51.45 12
That is all.
Sunday, October 11, 2009
TEB Preview-Men
Men
Ryan Bradley (USA)
The 2007 U.S. silver medalist's quirky style and crowd-pleasing charm make him an ideal show skater, but his relatively weak basic skating skills and inconsistent jumps do not make him the dream competitive skater. Bradley has a respectable competitive track record, having placed in the top five at the last three U.S. Championships and 15th at the 2007 World Championships. Bradley has already competed once this year, finishing 4th at the Nebelhorn Trophy, where he did manage to pull off a quad in the short. While it is always ideal to train with someone who is a top skater to motivate you further, it would seem probable that Bradley gets passed under the dust by his current coach, Tom Zakrajsek, because he does not have as strong an Olympic bid as his training mates, Rachael Flatt and Brandon Mroz. With the current depth in U.S. men's skating, Bradley seems to rank behind five men (Jeremy Abbott, Evan Lysacek, Mroz, Adam Rippon, and Johnny Weir) to get one of the three spots on the Olympic team, and thus a major upset would be in order for Bradley to compete in Vancouver. Nonetheless, Bradley has pulled off a major upset once, at 2007 nationals, where he was only expected to be an outside contender for the world team and ended up finishing 2nd and beating Johnny Weir in the process.
Vaughn Chipeur (Canada)
Armed with jumps that launch to the sky, it is peculiar that the reigning Canadian silver medalist does not have a quadruple jump in his repetoire. Chipeur has a rough, unpolished style, muscles all of his elements, and carries a tremedous amount of tension in his upper body (particularly his shoulders), but is a good competitor, has a stellar, delayed triple axel, and has excellent speed across the ice. Chipeur finished 12th at his first world championship in Los Angeles, coming just one placement shy of helping Patrick Chan secure three Olympic berths for Canada in the Olympics. Chipeur will be fending off Jeremy Ten, Shawn Sawyer, and Kevin Reynolds for the 2nd spot on the Canadian Olympic team, and while Chipeur by no means has it sewn up, he is favored for it based on his performances at last year's Canadian Nationals, Four Continents Championships, and World Championships. Chipeur will be the lone Canadian male competing in Paris, and his result here, if poor, will not necessarily foreshadow whether he makes the Olympic team. Chipeur appears to be a skater who performs better at home then overseas, and his performances at the end of last season were far superior to those at the beginning.
Brian Joubert (France)
The French heart-throb had nearly every opportunity handed to him on a platter to win his second world championship title in Los Angeles last season. Evgeni Plushenko and Stephane Lambel had yet to announce their return to skating, and Daisuke Takahashi was out because of an injury. The judges were clearly rewarding Joubert's experience, and the fact that he was trying quads in both programs, over pre-competition favorite Patrick Chan of Canada. He was even leading the field going into a long program with a program that included a botched combination with an under rotated second jump that was ratified as a complete jump. However, in the long program, Joubert succumbed to the pressure brought about by Evan Lysacek's clean performance, fell on an easy double axel, and fell to third. This disappointment led the French federation to give Joubert a new coach, Laurent Depouilly, and have former world ice dance champions Albena Denkova and Maxim Staviski choreograph his programs for the Olympic season. Although it is not ideal for one to peak at the beginning of the season, it is worth noting that, in previous seasons, Joubert's first event foreshadowed the success or failure of the rest of his season. In 2005, he only placed 3rd at Skate America, and ended up finishing 6th at the Olympics, although he did salvage his season with a silver at worlds. In 2006, he won Trophée Eric Bompard and ended up going undefeated that season. In 2008, he was only 4th at this event and went on to finish only 3rd at Worlds. If this pattern continues, much will be at skate for Joubert's confidence at his opening Grand Prix.
Nobunari Oda
Oda could be a force to be reckoned with if he just the learned the simplistic art of how to count. Oda is capable of landing quad+triple combinations and is blessed with good flexibility and deep knees, which enable him to land his jumps softly and securely. He arrived to the recent Stars, Stripes, and Skates show with his new Charlie Chaplin long program and eight cleanly landed triple jumps in tow. Unfortunately, Oda often forgets that there are only a maximum of three combinations allowed in the long program, and that if one repeats a jump twice without doing it in combination, the second jump is counted as a combination. Oda has made this mistake at four major competitions (2006 nationals, 2006 worlds, 2007 worlds, and 2009 worlds) and lost the 2006 national title, 2006 world bronze medal and a 2006 Olympic team berth because of his inept ability to work around the jump rules of the code of points. Oda's 7th place finish at 2009 Worlds, along with Takahiko Kozuka's 6th place finish, mean that Japan will have three berths for the men at the 2010 Winter Olympics, and Oda will most likely receive one of them. In Paris, Oda will be up against a deep field that includes Joubert, Adam Rippon, and Tomas Verner. He does have the capability of winning this event if he skates well, and based on his recent show performance, he should, at the very least, be in contention to do so.
Yannick Ponsero (France)
Ponsero has to be one of the sport's premier headcases, which is a real shame because he is capable of having one of the most breathtaking quadruple jumps in the sport (and is the only skater besides Evgeni Plushenko who has received a final mark of +2 GOE for that element), and has excellent speed and commendable edge work. Ponsero won the free skate at last year's Europeans, but missed the podium by .06 because of a double lutz in his short. Unfortunately, his overall Europeans performance was far superior to his showing in Los Angeles at Worlds, where he finished 16th. Ponsero did not start off this season well at the French Masters competition, taking a nasty fall on his triple axel in his long program and finishing 4th behind Florent Amodio, Joubert, and Alban Preaubert. Ponsero is competing against a deep field in Paris, and will compete with many creditable skaters at his next event, Cup of China, so his aspirations for qualifying to the Grand Prix Final are relatively dim. He has every capability to attain the second spot on the 2010 French Olympic team; however, if he finishes 3rd at the 2010 French Nationals, he will also have his lackluster showing in Los Angeles to blame for an Olympic dream taken away.
Alban Préaubert (France)
A native of Grenoble, the host city for the 1968 Winter Olympics, Préaubert has demonstrated that he is an Olympic caliber skater, but will need to perform especially well at French nationals to be named to the Olympic team. The 24-year-old has competed in two world championships, placing 8th in 2006 and 11th in 2007, and was scheduled to compete in 2008 but withdrew. He did not qualify to the world team last season, but did crack the top five at the European Championships. Préaubert is comparable to Ryan Bradley with his entertaining, yet unpolished, artistry, and also considering the fact that the two have had commendable careers without accomplishing anything spectacular in the sport. Préaubert is not as talented of a skater as Yannick Ponsero, but the former has been more consistent throughout his career, which will be a necessary aid for Préaubert come French nationals. Préabert beat Ponsero slightly at French Masters, and the judges' marks could be swayed in Préaubert's favor at French nationals for him to make the Olympic team if he were to beat Ponsero at this event also.
Adam Rippon (USA)
Rippon struggled throughout the bulk of last season, until he switched coaches from Nikolai Morozov to Brian Orser, the latter of whom is a two-time Olympic silver medalist and coach of reigning world champion Yu-Na Kim. Rippon competed at the 2009 U.S. Championships immediately following his switch to Orser, and had a shaky outing with a 7th place finish. However, by the time Junior Worlds rolled around, Rippon had transformed, landing two triple axels in his long program for the first time and handily winning the title by over 17 points. Rippon, just 19 years of age, is already a very polished, lyrical skater who resembles the Japanese skaters very much with his soft jump landings and superior edge quality. Rippon's total score of 222.00 at Junior Worlds would have placed him 7th at Worlds, ahead of where Brandon Mroz and Jeremy Abbott finished, and he actually would have placed 6th adding back the points he lost for not doing an additional footwork sequence at Junior Worlds (only one footwork sequence is allowed in a men's long program at junior worlds, two footwork sequences are allowed for senior men). The question that will begin to be answered at TEB is whether Rippon's performance at Junior Worlds was a fluke. Consistency will be imperative for Rippon at his two Grand Prixs, in order to be marked favorably at nationals if he is to have a legitimate opportunity to make the 2010 Olympic team. Rippon did not have a stellar Grand Prix season last year, but with a new coach will look to start off on the right track and stay there.
Tomas Verner (Czech Republic)
Verner would be wise to leave his current coach, Michael Huth, something Carolina Kostner did over the summer, because the Czech's consistency has been nothing to swoon over throughout his entire career. Verner is very much the equivalent of Carolina Kostner on the men's side, as both skaters have fine jumping ability (when they're on) and have made many strides artistically over the past several seasons, but both skaters have always struggled with poor consistency and have lost several medals in major competitions because of that foible. Verner is one of the few men who consistently attempts quads in both programs, and actually landed them both at Worlds in Los Angeles, where he finished 4th. Verner actually had one of his better competitions in Los Angeles, but taking into the account that he was off the podium there with Lambiel, Plushenko, and Takahashi not present, it wouldn't be wise to bet money on him to medal at the Olympics. At his peak, Verner beat Lambiel and Joubert to take the 2008 European title, only to hit rock bottom at Worlds with a 15th place finish (he was 20th in the long). Verner could feasibly win this competition, but is seldom ever at his optimum early in the season, having finished 6th at this event in 2007.
Sergei Voronov (Russia)
Although by no means a poor skater, Voronov's presence as the Russian national champion has brought much encouragment for 2006 Olympic champion Evgeni Plushenko to come out of retirement. Having competed at three world championships, Voronov's results have been up and down, finishing 19th in 2007, 7th in 2008, and 13th in 2009. Vornov has won the last two Russian national titles; however, he was beaten by Andrei Lutai at the 2009 Worlds by three placements. As Russia has only two spots for the Olympics, and with Plushenko more than a lock for the first one, Voronov and Lutai are in direct battle for the second. Voronov opened up his season this weekend at the Finandia Trophy, skating solidly and finishing 2nd, ahead of Stephen Carriere of the United States. Voronov will compete next at Cup of China.
Predicted Standings-Men
Gold: Nobunari Oda (Japan)
Silver: Brian Joubert (France)
Bronze: Adam Rippon (USA)
4th: Tomas Verner (Czech Republic)
5th: Alban Preaubert (France)
6th: Ryan Bradley (USA)
Next post: TEB Ladies Preview
That is all.
Ryan Bradley (USA)
The 2007 U.S. silver medalist's quirky style and crowd-pleasing charm make him an ideal show skater, but his relatively weak basic skating skills and inconsistent jumps do not make him the dream competitive skater. Bradley has a respectable competitive track record, having placed in the top five at the last three U.S. Championships and 15th at the 2007 World Championships. Bradley has already competed once this year, finishing 4th at the Nebelhorn Trophy, where he did manage to pull off a quad in the short. While it is always ideal to train with someone who is a top skater to motivate you further, it would seem probable that Bradley gets passed under the dust by his current coach, Tom Zakrajsek, because he does not have as strong an Olympic bid as his training mates, Rachael Flatt and Brandon Mroz. With the current depth in U.S. men's skating, Bradley seems to rank behind five men (Jeremy Abbott, Evan Lysacek, Mroz, Adam Rippon, and Johnny Weir) to get one of the three spots on the Olympic team, and thus a major upset would be in order for Bradley to compete in Vancouver. Nonetheless, Bradley has pulled off a major upset once, at 2007 nationals, where he was only expected to be an outside contender for the world team and ended up finishing 2nd and beating Johnny Weir in the process.
Vaughn Chipeur (Canada)
Armed with jumps that launch to the sky, it is peculiar that the reigning Canadian silver medalist does not have a quadruple jump in his repetoire. Chipeur has a rough, unpolished style, muscles all of his elements, and carries a tremedous amount of tension in his upper body (particularly his shoulders), but is a good competitor, has a stellar, delayed triple axel, and has excellent speed across the ice. Chipeur finished 12th at his first world championship in Los Angeles, coming just one placement shy of helping Patrick Chan secure three Olympic berths for Canada in the Olympics. Chipeur will be fending off Jeremy Ten, Shawn Sawyer, and Kevin Reynolds for the 2nd spot on the Canadian Olympic team, and while Chipeur by no means has it sewn up, he is favored for it based on his performances at last year's Canadian Nationals, Four Continents Championships, and World Championships. Chipeur will be the lone Canadian male competing in Paris, and his result here, if poor, will not necessarily foreshadow whether he makes the Olympic team. Chipeur appears to be a skater who performs better at home then overseas, and his performances at the end of last season were far superior to those at the beginning.
Brian Joubert (France)
The French heart-throb had nearly every opportunity handed to him on a platter to win his second world championship title in Los Angeles last season. Evgeni Plushenko and Stephane Lambel had yet to announce their return to skating, and Daisuke Takahashi was out because of an injury. The judges were clearly rewarding Joubert's experience, and the fact that he was trying quads in both programs, over pre-competition favorite Patrick Chan of Canada. He was even leading the field going into a long program with a program that included a botched combination with an under rotated second jump that was ratified as a complete jump. However, in the long program, Joubert succumbed to the pressure brought about by Evan Lysacek's clean performance, fell on an easy double axel, and fell to third. This disappointment led the French federation to give Joubert a new coach, Laurent Depouilly, and have former world ice dance champions Albena Denkova and Maxim Staviski choreograph his programs for the Olympic season. Although it is not ideal for one to peak at the beginning of the season, it is worth noting that, in previous seasons, Joubert's first event foreshadowed the success or failure of the rest of his season. In 2005, he only placed 3rd at Skate America, and ended up finishing 6th at the Olympics, although he did salvage his season with a silver at worlds. In 2006, he won Trophée Eric Bompard and ended up going undefeated that season. In 2008, he was only 4th at this event and went on to finish only 3rd at Worlds. If this pattern continues, much will be at skate for Joubert's confidence at his opening Grand Prix.
Nobunari Oda
Oda could be a force to be reckoned with if he just the learned the simplistic art of how to count. Oda is capable of landing quad+triple combinations and is blessed with good flexibility and deep knees, which enable him to land his jumps softly and securely. He arrived to the recent Stars, Stripes, and Skates show with his new Charlie Chaplin long program and eight cleanly landed triple jumps in tow. Unfortunately, Oda often forgets that there are only a maximum of three combinations allowed in the long program, and that if one repeats a jump twice without doing it in combination, the second jump is counted as a combination. Oda has made this mistake at four major competitions (2006 nationals, 2006 worlds, 2007 worlds, and 2009 worlds) and lost the 2006 national title, 2006 world bronze medal and a 2006 Olympic team berth because of his inept ability to work around the jump rules of the code of points. Oda's 7th place finish at 2009 Worlds, along with Takahiko Kozuka's 6th place finish, mean that Japan will have three berths for the men at the 2010 Winter Olympics, and Oda will most likely receive one of them. In Paris, Oda will be up against a deep field that includes Joubert, Adam Rippon, and Tomas Verner. He does have the capability of winning this event if he skates well, and based on his recent show performance, he should, at the very least, be in contention to do so.
Yannick Ponsero (France)
Ponsero has to be one of the sport's premier headcases, which is a real shame because he is capable of having one of the most breathtaking quadruple jumps in the sport (and is the only skater besides Evgeni Plushenko who has received a final mark of +2 GOE for that element), and has excellent speed and commendable edge work. Ponsero won the free skate at last year's Europeans, but missed the podium by .06 because of a double lutz in his short. Unfortunately, his overall Europeans performance was far superior to his showing in Los Angeles at Worlds, where he finished 16th. Ponsero did not start off this season well at the French Masters competition, taking a nasty fall on his triple axel in his long program and finishing 4th behind Florent Amodio, Joubert, and Alban Preaubert. Ponsero is competing against a deep field in Paris, and will compete with many creditable skaters at his next event, Cup of China, so his aspirations for qualifying to the Grand Prix Final are relatively dim. He has every capability to attain the second spot on the 2010 French Olympic team; however, if he finishes 3rd at the 2010 French Nationals, he will also have his lackluster showing in Los Angeles to blame for an Olympic dream taken away.
Alban Préaubert (France)
A native of Grenoble, the host city for the 1968 Winter Olympics, Préaubert has demonstrated that he is an Olympic caliber skater, but will need to perform especially well at French nationals to be named to the Olympic team. The 24-year-old has competed in two world championships, placing 8th in 2006 and 11th in 2007, and was scheduled to compete in 2008 but withdrew. He did not qualify to the world team last season, but did crack the top five at the European Championships. Préaubert is comparable to Ryan Bradley with his entertaining, yet unpolished, artistry, and also considering the fact that the two have had commendable careers without accomplishing anything spectacular in the sport. Préaubert is not as talented of a skater as Yannick Ponsero, but the former has been more consistent throughout his career, which will be a necessary aid for Préaubert come French nationals. Préabert beat Ponsero slightly at French Masters, and the judges' marks could be swayed in Préaubert's favor at French nationals for him to make the Olympic team if he were to beat Ponsero at this event also.
Adam Rippon (USA)
Rippon struggled throughout the bulk of last season, until he switched coaches from Nikolai Morozov to Brian Orser, the latter of whom is a two-time Olympic silver medalist and coach of reigning world champion Yu-Na Kim. Rippon competed at the 2009 U.S. Championships immediately following his switch to Orser, and had a shaky outing with a 7th place finish. However, by the time Junior Worlds rolled around, Rippon had transformed, landing two triple axels in his long program for the first time and handily winning the title by over 17 points. Rippon, just 19 years of age, is already a very polished, lyrical skater who resembles the Japanese skaters very much with his soft jump landings and superior edge quality. Rippon's total score of 222.00 at Junior Worlds would have placed him 7th at Worlds, ahead of where Brandon Mroz and Jeremy Abbott finished, and he actually would have placed 6th adding back the points he lost for not doing an additional footwork sequence at Junior Worlds (only one footwork sequence is allowed in a men's long program at junior worlds, two footwork sequences are allowed for senior men). The question that will begin to be answered at TEB is whether Rippon's performance at Junior Worlds was a fluke. Consistency will be imperative for Rippon at his two Grand Prixs, in order to be marked favorably at nationals if he is to have a legitimate opportunity to make the 2010 Olympic team. Rippon did not have a stellar Grand Prix season last year, but with a new coach will look to start off on the right track and stay there.
Tomas Verner (Czech Republic)
Verner would be wise to leave his current coach, Michael Huth, something Carolina Kostner did over the summer, because the Czech's consistency has been nothing to swoon over throughout his entire career. Verner is very much the equivalent of Carolina Kostner on the men's side, as both skaters have fine jumping ability (when they're on) and have made many strides artistically over the past several seasons, but both skaters have always struggled with poor consistency and have lost several medals in major competitions because of that foible. Verner is one of the few men who consistently attempts quads in both programs, and actually landed them both at Worlds in Los Angeles, where he finished 4th. Verner actually had one of his better competitions in Los Angeles, but taking into the account that he was off the podium there with Lambiel, Plushenko, and Takahashi not present, it wouldn't be wise to bet money on him to medal at the Olympics. At his peak, Verner beat Lambiel and Joubert to take the 2008 European title, only to hit rock bottom at Worlds with a 15th place finish (he was 20th in the long). Verner could feasibly win this competition, but is seldom ever at his optimum early in the season, having finished 6th at this event in 2007.
Sergei Voronov (Russia)
Although by no means a poor skater, Voronov's presence as the Russian national champion has brought much encouragment for 2006 Olympic champion Evgeni Plushenko to come out of retirement. Having competed at three world championships, Voronov's results have been up and down, finishing 19th in 2007, 7th in 2008, and 13th in 2009. Vornov has won the last two Russian national titles; however, he was beaten by Andrei Lutai at the 2009 Worlds by three placements. As Russia has only two spots for the Olympics, and with Plushenko more than a lock for the first one, Voronov and Lutai are in direct battle for the second. Voronov opened up his season this weekend at the Finandia Trophy, skating solidly and finishing 2nd, ahead of Stephen Carriere of the United States. Voronov will compete next at Cup of China.
Predicted Standings-Men
Gold: Nobunari Oda (Japan)
Silver: Brian Joubert (France)
Bronze: Adam Rippon (USA)
4th: Tomas Verner (Czech Republic)
5th: Alban Preaubert (France)
6th: Ryan Bradley (USA)
Next post: TEB Ladies Preview
That is all.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
2009 U.S. Figure Skating Championships Preview-Men
It would be a lie to say that the ladies have not been the dominant discipline of skating in the United States for the last half-century. In every Olympic Games since 1956 (with the exception of 1964), there has been at least one U.S. lady on the Olympic podium, and a total of seven American ladies have had the honor of stepping atop the platform reserved for the gold medalist. Surprising it will be when come the World Championships and the 2010 Olympics, an American man will have the best chance at securing a podium finish for the United States, not an American woman. The men were the only skating discipline where an American scored a medal at the last world championships (bronze-Johnny Weir, 2008) and the only American to have won a Grand Prix Final since 2002 is Jeremy Abbott.
The last three national championships have been hijacked by the Evan Lysacek vs. Johnny Weir battle for the title. Though a far cry from the intense and often bitter rivalry between Russian Olympic champions Alexei Yagudin and Evgeni Plushenko, there was quite a climax at last year's Nationals in St. Paul when Lysacek beat Weir in a tie-breaker by virtue of winning the free skate. To add to the tension, a chilling fluff piece was shown at the opening of NBC's broadcast of the men's free. The fluff was created especially for the two rivals in which Weir commented "Outside from skating, I don't really like Evan" and Lysacek called the rivalry "war" between the two skaters. However, in a compelling twist, a relative newcomer by the name of Jeremy Abbott looks to get the biggest slice of the pie in Cleveland. With a victory at the Grand Prix Final, an event where Weir settled for bronze and Lysacek failed to even qualify for, Abbott has established himself as an exceptionally creditable threat to both men, who have a combined total of five national titles between them, whereas Abbott has none.
While a compelling three-way fight for the title should no doubt be a thrilling event to witness, the story lines for the men's event at Nationals won't end there. The inconsistent but entertaining veteran Ryan Bradley, the reliable and steady Stephen Carriere, and newcomers Branden Mroz and Adam Rippon will be other faces to keep an eye on in Cleveland when the men's short program gets under way on January 23rd, 2009.
Skaters Featured in Post:
Jeremy Abbott
Ryan Bradley
Stephen Carriere
Evan Lysacek
Branden Mroz
Adam Rippon
Johnny Weir
Jeremy Abbott
Noteworthy Results: 2008 Grand Prix Final Champion, 2008 Cup of Russia-4th, 2008 Cup of China Champion, 2008 World Championships-11th, 2008 Four Continents Championships-5th, 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-4th, 2007 Four Continents Championships-3rd, 2007 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-4th
Pros: Abbott's standing ovation from a thunderously approving crowd at this year's Grand Prix Final seemed to symbolize the transformation of Abbott's skating. Once a talented but notoriously inconsistent competitor, his victory in South Korea earned him a spot amongst the world's leading male figure skaters. Abbott, who has landed three clean quadruple toe loops in major international competition, has the three highest scores in the long program for any U.S. man this season, in addition to the two highest segment total scores (237.72 and 233.44). Lauded for his good musicality, first-rate jumping technique, and strong basic skating skills, on paper Jeremy has placed himself away from his competitors with the highest averages this season in the long program for both technical elements (79.98) and program components (74.87), the former of which being over nine points ahead of his closest rival, Johnny Weir.
Cons: Abbott has yet to even attempt the quadruple toe loop in either program this season, and did struggle at the recent Cup of Russia, singling his lutz in the short and doubling a triple toe in the long. Abbott's venture to do the quad in both programs at last year's nationals proved unsuccessful; stepping out of it on both attempts. While Abbott is not a full-fledged newcomer, having won the pewter medal at the last two nationals and participating at a world championship, this national championship will no doubt be Abbott's biggest test of his mettle in competition to date. Doing well at the Grand Prix isn't always a blessing, as proven by Matt Savoie winning the bronze (and having the highest U.S. finish) at the Grand Prix Final in 2001, and failing to make the world team. While the two scenarios aren't entirely comparable, as there were only two spots available for the world team in 2001 and Savoie would've otherwise gone (having finished with the bronze medal at nationals), it is an indication of just how slippery the ice really is, especially at nationals, considered the ultimate pressure competition of the year.
Outlook: Looking at the scores internationally this season, Abbott is the favorite to win his first U.S. national championship and is undoubtedly a shoo-in to be on his second world team. Inserting a quad into his already loaded bag of tricks could propel him to be in a position with quite a bit of breathing room to win. However, one must not forget that Abbott's quad has by no means been a walk in the park for him, and that Evan Lysacek and Johnny Weir, who have also stated their plans to include the jump, have far more experience nationally and internationally than Jeremy can claim. Abbott's performances at the last two Nationals have been neither brilliant nor dreadful, but Abbott may be required to skate nothing less than brilliantly if Weir and Lysacek skate with greater intensity than they have for the entirety of this season.
Ryan Bradley
Noteworthy Results: 2008 Trophee Eric Bombard-7th, 2008 Skate Canada-2nd, 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-5th, 2007 Trophee Eric Bombard-5th, 2007 Skate America-6th, 2007 World Championships-15th, 2007 Four Continents Championships-4th, 2007 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-2nd
Pros: The three-time U.S. Collegiate champion sets himself apart with his unique programs that are full of vitality. Bradley has beaten Abbott, Lysacek, and Weir at some point in his career, and Ryan's decision to return to his former long program to musical selections from "Mambo en Sax," "Historia De Un Amor," and "El Cumbanchero" appeared to be a wise one at this season's Skate Canada, where he finished with a silver medal with a performance that many argued was rightful of gold. He also scored personal bests at that meet in both programs, a 72.50 in the short and a 140.25 in the free.
Cons: Bradley's nervy showing at the 2007 World Figure Skating Championships, his only world championship to date, has not given U.S. Figure Skating any incentive to send him to Los Angeles this year, where assuring three Olympic spots will be a must. The same can also be said for Ryan's abysmal performance at this year's Trophee Eric Bombard, where he fell twice in the free and did two many jump combinations en route to finishing 10th in the free and 7th overall. While a crowd favorite, he has hardly been a judges favorite throughout his career, having the second-lowest PCS average in the long program among the men featured in this post this season. Bradley's TES scores are also the lowest among the top U.S. men, which is all thanks to his weak showing at Trophee Eric Bombard.
Outlook: Known for his vibrant character on the ice, one can hope that Bradley enjoyed his time in Tokyo, Japan, for his first world championships, because with Abbott's rapid improvement and Lysacek and Weir's experience, one is unlikely to be finding Bradley skating on a television set in March when worlds arrive. Although a mightily inconsistent skater, Bradley is known to be an opportunist when it comes to taking advantage of detrimental performances from his fellow rivals and stepping up to bat and delivering the goods, the most notable example being his shocking silver medal finish at the 2007 U.S. Figure Skating Championships. With Abbott, Lysacek, and Weir predicted to lock up the world team spots, Bradley will still be motivated for a strong finish here to ensure him of Grand Prix assignments next season and a possible ticket to Four Continents if one of the top three opts out of being chosen to rest for Worlds. Currently 25 years of age, Bradley's quest to make a name for himself beyond 2010 could unfortunately prove to be too little, too late.
Stephen Carriere
Noteworthy Results: 2008 NHK Trophy-6th, 2008 Cup of China-2nd, 2008 World Championships-10th, 2008 Four Continents Championships-4th, 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-3rd, 2007 NHK Trophy-3rd, 2007 Skate America-4th, 2007 World Junior Champion, 2007 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-9th, 2006 Junior Grand Prix Final Champion
Pros: Only 19 years of age and competing in his third senior national championship, the Wakefield, Massachusetts native is currently an impressive 9th on the seasons best list and among the cards that he brings to the table are his inordinate triple axels and his Tano-style double jumps for his combinations. Carriere has already been a proven commodity for the United States in his young career, placing 10th at last year's worlds which, combined with Johnny Weir's bronze medal, secured three spots for this year's World Championships. Carriere's seasons best in the long program, 145.25, is over three points higher than that of Evan Lysacek's 141.91. In addition to his great speed across the ice, Carriere is commended for his consistently cool head under pressure.
Cons: Carriere's hopes of making the Grand Prix Final after being an alternate last year descended with a poor showing at the NHK Trophy, where he singled both of his axel attempts in the long and under rotated his triple-triple in the short. His total at NHK regressed nearly 25 points from Cup of China, which is not a good sign for his preparation or political favor heading into nationals. While Carriere is immune to flutzing, Stephen has struggled with taking off of the correct edge for his flip, receiving "!" marks during both programs at Cup of China and an "e" deduction during the long at NHK. With a top-three finish being a must for Carriere to be named to the world team, his TES average this season in the long program is only 5th among the top U.S. men, and is 4th when it comes to average PCS marks in the long and seasons best totals. Unlike many of the other top men, Carriere does not compete a quadruple jump and while it is a legitimate argument to say that risking a jump isn't worth it, for Carriere it is a necessity because of his weaker artistic marks.
Outlook: Carriere, who once compared his skating to growing branches on a tree, may be forced to stop climbing up the standings when a top 3 finish and an additional trip to worlds look to be unlikely this year. Even if Carriere were to finish with a bronze medal and would thus knock one of Abbott, Weir, or Lysacek off the podium, all three of those men have more experience and reputation than that of Carriere and he could still feasibly be passed over anyway. While Carriere is an immensely talented skater, his skating is still considered by many to be fairly juniorish and his consistency is unfortunately too invaluable of a trinket to disguise his other weaknesses. However, Stephen can still get an assignment to the Four Continents Championships if one of the top three opts out of going, and Grand Prix assignments for next year should come his way barring a disastrous performance in Cleveland.
Evan Lysacek
Noteworthy Results: 2008 Skate Canada-3rd, 2008 Skate America-3rd, 2008 Four Continents Championships-3rd, 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Champion, 2007 Grand Prix Final-3rd, 2007 Cup of China-2nd, 2007 Skate America-2nd, 2007 World Figure Skating Championships-5th, 2007 Four Continents Championships Champion, 2007 U.S. Figure Skating Champion, 2006 Cup of China Champion, 2006 World Championships-3rd, 2006 Olympic Games-4th, 2005 World Championships-3rd
Pros: Every bit as experienced as the length of his 6'2'' frame, Lysacek will make his 10th trip to the national championship, and his eighth as a senior. Lysacek is decent in every area of his skating, and this event has historically been a kind one for Evan, with him being the champion for the last two years. A relentless competitor who is practically incapable of skating two sub-par programs in a competition, Lysacek has been credited with landing the quad in national and international competition, unlike Johnny Weir. Lysacek's personal best scores in the long program and overall are higher than that of Weir, and his personal best and seasons best in the short is the highest among any American skater. Lysacek is also known for his intelligence when handling the current code of points, maxing out his levels and points in non-jump elements and changing jump combinations during the program if he puts himself into a situation where such a task is necessary.
Cons: Evan received four downgrades and two wrong-edge "!" calls during the Grand Prix series, with that and more contributing to him failing to make the Grand Prix Final. Although Lysacek's PCS marks in the long at Skate America were very competitive (76.30), they regressed nearly six points to a 70.70 during his long at Skate Canada, which was a mostly clean performance. Lysacek hasn't successfully landed the quad since the Four Continents Championships in February 2008, and seems to have dropped it from his short program for good. Lysacek has been criticized in the past for his artificial artistry, arm-flailing footwork sequence extravaganzas, and, although irrelevant, his distasteful choices in costuming. Lysacek's failure to compete at worlds last year and making the Grand Prix Final this year may stunt his potential to do well at nationals, both in terms of confidence and how well he will be received from the judging panel.
Outlook: Lysacek may not be having the best season thus far, and people can complain all day long about his wonky technique on his triple axel, weaker basic skating skills, and hackneyed programs. However, one would be a fool to count the two-time world bronze medalist from the mix, and Evan has some very layered layers of breathing room to fall under before he will be unable to make the world team. As for winning the title, his forecast is fairly to partly cloudy with a definite chance of showers. To make the sun shine for him, he must get his quad consistent, start landing his triple axels without any ambiguity regarding whether the jump completed the required rotations, and to skate his programs with renewed life and intensity that has been missing this season. Having been away from competition since early November, Lysacek has surely worked vigorously to get back to the top. With reports saying how good his practice sessions have looked as of late, will practice make perfect in Cleveland?
Brandon Mroz
Noteworthy Results: 2008 Trophee Eric Bombard-5th, 2008 Skate Canada-7th, 2008 World Junior Championships-4th, 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-2nd (juniors), 2007 Junior Grand Prix Final-2nd, 2007 Junior World Championships-4th, 2007 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-2nd (juniors), 2006 Junior Grand Prix Final-2nd
Pros: A fine technical skater, Mroz currently competes a quadruple toe-loop to open his long program. Having only received one downgrade this year, and one wrong-edge call ("!" for his triple flip), Mroz has the third highest TES average this season in the long (67.36), which is higher than that of Evan Lysacek or Stephen Carriere. Mroz generally receives level 3s and 4s for her non-jump elements, which create greater cushion for error when it comes to jumping. This championship is a perfect opportunity for Mroz to establish himself as a recognizable threat for the future while having little pressure on him to do well.
Cons: Mroz cannot hold a candle to the top U.S. men with it comes to program components, specifically when it comes choreography and interpretation. A rather mundane and juniorish skater when it comes to artistry, he is unlikely to be getting the marks in that department to land on the podium, which is evidenced by him having the lowest PCS average among the top U.S. men in the long this season (58.25). Mroz has had his fair share of errors throughout the Grand Prix, having not landed the quad successfully at either Skate Canada or Trophee Eric Bombard. Brandon has also struggled with landing his second triple axel in his long program, and throughout his junior career he has been forced to step under the shadow of Adam Rippon, who beat Mroz at the Junior Grand Prix Final, Nationals (junior level), and Junior Worlds last season.
Outlook: While Brandon has a ways to go before he becomes a top level skater, he is making definitive strides in the right direction. Having upgraded to a quad and placing a second triple axel after the half-way point of his long program (as a junior he placed both triple axels at the beginning of his long) this more ambitious jump composition will be a necessity for him beyond 2010. While Mroz is hardly in contention of making the world team, a ticket to Sofia, Bulgaria, for the junior world championships is easily realistic and he will be able to further hone his talents before potentially becoming a medal contender at nationals in the future.
Adam Rippon
Noteworthy Results: 2008 Cup of Russia-5th, 2008 Skate America-8th, 2008 World Junior Champion, 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Champion (Junior), 2007 Junior Grand Prix Final Champion, 2007 Junior Grand Prix Romania Champion
Pros: Blessed with an exceptionally malleable and compact body, the 19-year-old Rippon dominated the junior circuit last year, winning the Junior Grand Prix Final, U.S. Figure Skating Championships (junior level), and the Junior World Championship. At the 2008 U.S. Nationals, Paul Wylie commented during an NBC fluff that Rippon has all of the makings to be a future champion, and with airy jumps, blue-ribbon spins, and a flair for musicality, there is undoubtedly a good deal of validity to that statement. Rippon has added a triple axel to his jumping repertoire this season and has generally been a consistent skater in competition. Many have praised Adam's intelligent decision in making a coaching change mid-season from Nikolai Morozov to Brian Orser, as Orser has fewer students to devote his attention to than Morozov.
Cons: Although age-eligible to compete at worlds, Rippon will have a mightily tough act on his back if he hopes to qualify. Rippon has received negative GOEs on all five of his triple axel attempts this season, and fell on two of them. Rippon lost at least seven potential points when he was downgraded on three jumps in the long at Skate America, and his overall showing at that competition, his first senior showing, was an uncharacteristically poor one. Adam's averages this season in the long program for technical elements and program components are 2nd and 3rd lowest, respectively, among the men featured in this post. Rippon's personal best total score of 207.93, achieved at the recent Cup of Russia, is far lower than that of Abbott (237.72), Lysacek (233.11), Weir (231.78), Carriere (218.30), and Bradley (212.75).
Outlook: A diamond in the rough, Rippon will particularly need to focus on his content to out skate the big boys. Getting his triple axel consistent, and preferably putting two of them into his long program will he a big help to the Pennsylvania native, and learning a quad wouldn't hurt, either. Rippon is certainly improving, scoring personal bests in both phases of the competition at his most recent competition, Cup of Russia. Rippon has immaculate basic skating skills, including correct edge take-offs for both his flip and lutz, and Brian Orser's immense expertise of jumps like the triple axel should further fulfill the potential that Rippon has to offer. Although unlikely to be in contention for the world team, Rippon should use this competition to learn, grow, have fun, and take risks. With a former world champion as his coach, and two-time Grand Prix Final champion Yu-Na Kim as his training partner, Rippon will be able to witness the day-to-day happenings of the expectation and preparation of one of the top ladies figure skaters in the world, which should prove useful as soon as Rippon is ready to step into the spotlight and away from the shadows of other top skaters.
Johnny Weir
Noteworthy Results: 2008 Grand Prix Final-3rd, 2008 NHK Trophy-2nd, 2008 Skate America-3rd, 2008 World Figure Skating Championships-3rd, 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-2nd, 2007 Grand Prix Final-4th, 2007 Cup of Russia Champion, 2007 Cup of China Champion, 2007 World Figure Skating Championships-8th, 2007 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-3rd, 2006 World Figure Skating Championships-7th, 2006 Olympic Games-5th, 2006 U.S. Figure Skating Champion, 2005 World Figure Skating Championships-4th, 2005 U.S. Figure Skating Champion, 2004 World Figure Skating Championships-5th, 2004 U.S. Figure Skating Champion
Pros: The only skater since Brian Boitano to have won three consecutive (2004-2006) national titles in the United States, Weir is a distinctly unique skater, from his costume and music selections to the fact that he rotates clockwise as opposed to counter-clockwise. Blessed with heavenly deep knees, assertive presentation, and a renewed fight for the top, these are all desirable cards for Weir to emerge victorious in Cleveland. Weir has butter-smooth triple axels and triple+triple combinations, and is hoping to land his quad for the first time in a major competition. Outside of the jumping department, Weir has very strong spins and footwork that routinely get in the level three and four range, and typically is a recipient of very desirable PCS marks in the U.S. and abroad.
Cons: Weir's biggest opponent at nationals may not be Jeremy Abbott, or Evan Lysacek, but rather something far more subtle called the code of points. Weir got lucky when he did too many combinations during the long at the 2006 U.S. Nationals, where he still had enough breathing room from the short to win. However, karma for his poor decision making in programs greeted him at the 2006 Olympics, where he only did one jump combination in the long and that, among other things, kept him from stepping onto the medals stand. Johnny left out a possible combination again at the 2008 U.S. Nationals, which mathematically speaking cost him a 4th title. At the world championships, Weir once again did two combinations (neither being a three-jump combo), but this time was saved by Daisuke Takahashi being credited with too many combinations, thus forfeiting his spot on the podium to Weir. As far as his skating rivals are concerned, Weir's personal best is lower than that of Lysacek and his seasons average for both TES (especially) and PCS in the long program is lower than that of Abbott. Weir is also routinely given an "e" deduction for liping his triple flip.
Outlook: Despite the retirements of Jeffrey Buttle and Stephane Lambiel and the current absence of Takahashi, the international mens field is immensely deep and Weir cannot afford anything less than a victory here to ensure him of realistic medal prospects when the world championships roll around, and the same holds true for the Olympics next year. Weir's criticism of the code of points is not without its irony, as Johnny has actually been helped by COP for the fact that the quad doesn't have to be a do-or-die jump. The reality is that fighting for every point is necessary, and with close results being commonplace an extra double toe DOES MATTER. Abbott does have the momentum heading into nationals, but by no means is Weir going to let him take an idyllic path to victory. Weir obviously hasn't started working with Galina Zmievskaya, known to be an extremely demanding coach, for nothing. His experience could prove to be his biggest asset, but per the numbers of this season Weir is a slight underdog heading into nationals, an unfamiliar position for him.
Podium Prediction:
Gold: Jeremy Abbott-Has had a phenomenal season thus far and as far as the data is concerned he shouldn't have a problem winning. However, his lack of experience compared to Weir and Lysacek and pressure from winning the Grand Prix Final will be obstacles to overcome. Seems to have the most momentum in terms of confidence and scoring favor, however.
Silver: Johnny Weir-Johnny has historically done well at nationals with a few exceptions (2003, 2007), and has enough experience to skate well despite all of the expectations surrounding him. However, his quad, and his inability to maximize his points in past programs could result in lower scores than what will be necessary to win the title.
Bronze: Evan Lysacek- Will likely look better than earlier in the season, but his quad is hit-or-miss, he has been getting more downgrades this season and his PCS have been regressing.
4th/Pewter: Stephen Carriere-Solid, consistent, and a great jumper, but isn't near to the level of the top three to have a good chance at going to worlds.
5th: Adam Rippon-Wise move to switch coaches; did extremely well at last year's nationals as a junior and it will be interesting to see if he will be intimidated or free-spirited when competing at the biggest event of his career thus far.
6th: Ryan Bradley-Has been a steady but unspectacular player at nationals for a number of years, and while his 2007 performance was a shock to all, the former statement is likely to wind up true in Cleveland.
7th: Brandon Mroz- A great opportunity for him to hold nothing back and gain feedback from judges for further improvement. With solid technical content, he should be right up there in the standings at nationals, although a podium finish is almost out of the question.
UPDATE: Kimmie Meissner has just announced her withdrawal from the U.S. Figure Skating Championships, due to a currently unspecified injury. This likely means the end of her season, and will be lucky just to get one GP assignment next year. Many are speculating that Meissner's retirement may be imminent. My new ladies prediction will be (in order from 1st to 10th): Flatt, Wagner, Zhang, Czisny, Nagasu, Liang, Bereswill, Gilles, Hacker, and Forte.
That is all.
The last three national championships have been hijacked by the Evan Lysacek vs. Johnny Weir battle for the title. Though a far cry from the intense and often bitter rivalry between Russian Olympic champions Alexei Yagudin and Evgeni Plushenko, there was quite a climax at last year's Nationals in St. Paul when Lysacek beat Weir in a tie-breaker by virtue of winning the free skate. To add to the tension, a chilling fluff piece was shown at the opening of NBC's broadcast of the men's free. The fluff was created especially for the two rivals in which Weir commented "Outside from skating, I don't really like Evan" and Lysacek called the rivalry "war" between the two skaters. However, in a compelling twist, a relative newcomer by the name of Jeremy Abbott looks to get the biggest slice of the pie in Cleveland. With a victory at the Grand Prix Final, an event where Weir settled for bronze and Lysacek failed to even qualify for, Abbott has established himself as an exceptionally creditable threat to both men, who have a combined total of five national titles between them, whereas Abbott has none.
While a compelling three-way fight for the title should no doubt be a thrilling event to witness, the story lines for the men's event at Nationals won't end there. The inconsistent but entertaining veteran Ryan Bradley, the reliable and steady Stephen Carriere, and newcomers Branden Mroz and Adam Rippon will be other faces to keep an eye on in Cleveland when the men's short program gets under way on January 23rd, 2009.
Skaters Featured in Post:
Jeremy Abbott
Ryan Bradley
Stephen Carriere
Evan Lysacek
Branden Mroz
Adam Rippon
Johnny Weir
Jeremy Abbott
Noteworthy Results: 2008 Grand Prix Final Champion, 2008 Cup of Russia-4th, 2008 Cup of China Champion, 2008 World Championships-11th, 2008 Four Continents Championships-5th, 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-4th, 2007 Four Continents Championships-3rd, 2007 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-4th
Pros: Abbott's standing ovation from a thunderously approving crowd at this year's Grand Prix Final seemed to symbolize the transformation of Abbott's skating. Once a talented but notoriously inconsistent competitor, his victory in South Korea earned him a spot amongst the world's leading male figure skaters. Abbott, who has landed three clean quadruple toe loops in major international competition, has the three highest scores in the long program for any U.S. man this season, in addition to the two highest segment total scores (237.72 and 233.44). Lauded for his good musicality, first-rate jumping technique, and strong basic skating skills, on paper Jeremy has placed himself away from his competitors with the highest averages this season in the long program for both technical elements (79.98) and program components (74.87), the former of which being over nine points ahead of his closest rival, Johnny Weir.
Cons: Abbott has yet to even attempt the quadruple toe loop in either program this season, and did struggle at the recent Cup of Russia, singling his lutz in the short and doubling a triple toe in the long. Abbott's venture to do the quad in both programs at last year's nationals proved unsuccessful; stepping out of it on both attempts. While Abbott is not a full-fledged newcomer, having won the pewter medal at the last two nationals and participating at a world championship, this national championship will no doubt be Abbott's biggest test of his mettle in competition to date. Doing well at the Grand Prix isn't always a blessing, as proven by Matt Savoie winning the bronze (and having the highest U.S. finish) at the Grand Prix Final in 2001, and failing to make the world team. While the two scenarios aren't entirely comparable, as there were only two spots available for the world team in 2001 and Savoie would've otherwise gone (having finished with the bronze medal at nationals), it is an indication of just how slippery the ice really is, especially at nationals, considered the ultimate pressure competition of the year.
Outlook: Looking at the scores internationally this season, Abbott is the favorite to win his first U.S. national championship and is undoubtedly a shoo-in to be on his second world team. Inserting a quad into his already loaded bag of tricks could propel him to be in a position with quite a bit of breathing room to win. However, one must not forget that Abbott's quad has by no means been a walk in the park for him, and that Evan Lysacek and Johnny Weir, who have also stated their plans to include the jump, have far more experience nationally and internationally than Jeremy can claim. Abbott's performances at the last two Nationals have been neither brilliant nor dreadful, but Abbott may be required to skate nothing less than brilliantly if Weir and Lysacek skate with greater intensity than they have for the entirety of this season.
Ryan Bradley
Noteworthy Results: 2008 Trophee Eric Bombard-7th, 2008 Skate Canada-2nd, 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-5th, 2007 Trophee Eric Bombard-5th, 2007 Skate America-6th, 2007 World Championships-15th, 2007 Four Continents Championships-4th, 2007 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-2nd
Pros: The three-time U.S. Collegiate champion sets himself apart with his unique programs that are full of vitality. Bradley has beaten Abbott, Lysacek, and Weir at some point in his career, and Ryan's decision to return to his former long program to musical selections from "Mambo en Sax," "Historia De Un Amor," and "El Cumbanchero" appeared to be a wise one at this season's Skate Canada, where he finished with a silver medal with a performance that many argued was rightful of gold. He also scored personal bests at that meet in both programs, a 72.50 in the short and a 140.25 in the free.
Cons: Bradley's nervy showing at the 2007 World Figure Skating Championships, his only world championship to date, has not given U.S. Figure Skating any incentive to send him to Los Angeles this year, where assuring three Olympic spots will be a must. The same can also be said for Ryan's abysmal performance at this year's Trophee Eric Bombard, where he fell twice in the free and did two many jump combinations en route to finishing 10th in the free and 7th overall. While a crowd favorite, he has hardly been a judges favorite throughout his career, having the second-lowest PCS average in the long program among the men featured in this post this season. Bradley's TES scores are also the lowest among the top U.S. men, which is all thanks to his weak showing at Trophee Eric Bombard.
Outlook: Known for his vibrant character on the ice, one can hope that Bradley enjoyed his time in Tokyo, Japan, for his first world championships, because with Abbott's rapid improvement and Lysacek and Weir's experience, one is unlikely to be finding Bradley skating on a television set in March when worlds arrive. Although a mightily inconsistent skater, Bradley is known to be an opportunist when it comes to taking advantage of detrimental performances from his fellow rivals and stepping up to bat and delivering the goods, the most notable example being his shocking silver medal finish at the 2007 U.S. Figure Skating Championships. With Abbott, Lysacek, and Weir predicted to lock up the world team spots, Bradley will still be motivated for a strong finish here to ensure him of Grand Prix assignments next season and a possible ticket to Four Continents if one of the top three opts out of being chosen to rest for Worlds. Currently 25 years of age, Bradley's quest to make a name for himself beyond 2010 could unfortunately prove to be too little, too late.
Stephen Carriere
Noteworthy Results: 2008 NHK Trophy-6th, 2008 Cup of China-2nd, 2008 World Championships-10th, 2008 Four Continents Championships-4th, 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-3rd, 2007 NHK Trophy-3rd, 2007 Skate America-4th, 2007 World Junior Champion, 2007 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-9th, 2006 Junior Grand Prix Final Champion
Pros: Only 19 years of age and competing in his third senior national championship, the Wakefield, Massachusetts native is currently an impressive 9th on the seasons best list and among the cards that he brings to the table are his inordinate triple axels and his Tano-style double jumps for his combinations. Carriere has already been a proven commodity for the United States in his young career, placing 10th at last year's worlds which, combined with Johnny Weir's bronze medal, secured three spots for this year's World Championships. Carriere's seasons best in the long program, 145.25, is over three points higher than that of Evan Lysacek's 141.91. In addition to his great speed across the ice, Carriere is commended for his consistently cool head under pressure.
Cons: Carriere's hopes of making the Grand Prix Final after being an alternate last year descended with a poor showing at the NHK Trophy, where he singled both of his axel attempts in the long and under rotated his triple-triple in the short. His total at NHK regressed nearly 25 points from Cup of China, which is not a good sign for his preparation or political favor heading into nationals. While Carriere is immune to flutzing, Stephen has struggled with taking off of the correct edge for his flip, receiving "!" marks during both programs at Cup of China and an "e" deduction during the long at NHK. With a top-three finish being a must for Carriere to be named to the world team, his TES average this season in the long program is only 5th among the top U.S. men, and is 4th when it comes to average PCS marks in the long and seasons best totals. Unlike many of the other top men, Carriere does not compete a quadruple jump and while it is a legitimate argument to say that risking a jump isn't worth it, for Carriere it is a necessity because of his weaker artistic marks.
Outlook: Carriere, who once compared his skating to growing branches on a tree, may be forced to stop climbing up the standings when a top 3 finish and an additional trip to worlds look to be unlikely this year. Even if Carriere were to finish with a bronze medal and would thus knock one of Abbott, Weir, or Lysacek off the podium, all three of those men have more experience and reputation than that of Carriere and he could still feasibly be passed over anyway. While Carriere is an immensely talented skater, his skating is still considered by many to be fairly juniorish and his consistency is unfortunately too invaluable of a trinket to disguise his other weaknesses. However, Stephen can still get an assignment to the Four Continents Championships if one of the top three opts out of going, and Grand Prix assignments for next year should come his way barring a disastrous performance in Cleveland.
Evan Lysacek
Noteworthy Results: 2008 Skate Canada-3rd, 2008 Skate America-3rd, 2008 Four Continents Championships-3rd, 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Champion, 2007 Grand Prix Final-3rd, 2007 Cup of China-2nd, 2007 Skate America-2nd, 2007 World Figure Skating Championships-5th, 2007 Four Continents Championships Champion, 2007 U.S. Figure Skating Champion, 2006 Cup of China Champion, 2006 World Championships-3rd, 2006 Olympic Games-4th, 2005 World Championships-3rd
Pros: Every bit as experienced as the length of his 6'2'' frame, Lysacek will make his 10th trip to the national championship, and his eighth as a senior. Lysacek is decent in every area of his skating, and this event has historically been a kind one for Evan, with him being the champion for the last two years. A relentless competitor who is practically incapable of skating two sub-par programs in a competition, Lysacek has been credited with landing the quad in national and international competition, unlike Johnny Weir. Lysacek's personal best scores in the long program and overall are higher than that of Weir, and his personal best and seasons best in the short is the highest among any American skater. Lysacek is also known for his intelligence when handling the current code of points, maxing out his levels and points in non-jump elements and changing jump combinations during the program if he puts himself into a situation where such a task is necessary.
Cons: Evan received four downgrades and two wrong-edge "!" calls during the Grand Prix series, with that and more contributing to him failing to make the Grand Prix Final. Although Lysacek's PCS marks in the long at Skate America were very competitive (76.30), they regressed nearly six points to a 70.70 during his long at Skate Canada, which was a mostly clean performance. Lysacek hasn't successfully landed the quad since the Four Continents Championships in February 2008, and seems to have dropped it from his short program for good. Lysacek has been criticized in the past for his artificial artistry, arm-flailing footwork sequence extravaganzas, and, although irrelevant, his distasteful choices in costuming. Lysacek's failure to compete at worlds last year and making the Grand Prix Final this year may stunt his potential to do well at nationals, both in terms of confidence and how well he will be received from the judging panel.
Outlook: Lysacek may not be having the best season thus far, and people can complain all day long about his wonky technique on his triple axel, weaker basic skating skills, and hackneyed programs. However, one would be a fool to count the two-time world bronze medalist from the mix, and Evan has some very layered layers of breathing room to fall under before he will be unable to make the world team. As for winning the title, his forecast is fairly to partly cloudy with a definite chance of showers. To make the sun shine for him, he must get his quad consistent, start landing his triple axels without any ambiguity regarding whether the jump completed the required rotations, and to skate his programs with renewed life and intensity that has been missing this season. Having been away from competition since early November, Lysacek has surely worked vigorously to get back to the top. With reports saying how good his practice sessions have looked as of late, will practice make perfect in Cleveland?
Brandon Mroz
Noteworthy Results: 2008 Trophee Eric Bombard-5th, 2008 Skate Canada-7th, 2008 World Junior Championships-4th, 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-2nd (juniors), 2007 Junior Grand Prix Final-2nd, 2007 Junior World Championships-4th, 2007 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-2nd (juniors), 2006 Junior Grand Prix Final-2nd
Pros: A fine technical skater, Mroz currently competes a quadruple toe-loop to open his long program. Having only received one downgrade this year, and one wrong-edge call ("!" for his triple flip), Mroz has the third highest TES average this season in the long (67.36), which is higher than that of Evan Lysacek or Stephen Carriere. Mroz generally receives level 3s and 4s for her non-jump elements, which create greater cushion for error when it comes to jumping. This championship is a perfect opportunity for Mroz to establish himself as a recognizable threat for the future while having little pressure on him to do well.
Cons: Mroz cannot hold a candle to the top U.S. men with it comes to program components, specifically when it comes choreography and interpretation. A rather mundane and juniorish skater when it comes to artistry, he is unlikely to be getting the marks in that department to land on the podium, which is evidenced by him having the lowest PCS average among the top U.S. men in the long this season (58.25). Mroz has had his fair share of errors throughout the Grand Prix, having not landed the quad successfully at either Skate Canada or Trophee Eric Bombard. Brandon has also struggled with landing his second triple axel in his long program, and throughout his junior career he has been forced to step under the shadow of Adam Rippon, who beat Mroz at the Junior Grand Prix Final, Nationals (junior level), and Junior Worlds last season.
Outlook: While Brandon has a ways to go before he becomes a top level skater, he is making definitive strides in the right direction. Having upgraded to a quad and placing a second triple axel after the half-way point of his long program (as a junior he placed both triple axels at the beginning of his long) this more ambitious jump composition will be a necessity for him beyond 2010. While Mroz is hardly in contention of making the world team, a ticket to Sofia, Bulgaria, for the junior world championships is easily realistic and he will be able to further hone his talents before potentially becoming a medal contender at nationals in the future.
Adam Rippon
Noteworthy Results: 2008 Cup of Russia-5th, 2008 Skate America-8th, 2008 World Junior Champion, 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Champion (Junior), 2007 Junior Grand Prix Final Champion, 2007 Junior Grand Prix Romania Champion
Pros: Blessed with an exceptionally malleable and compact body, the 19-year-old Rippon dominated the junior circuit last year, winning the Junior Grand Prix Final, U.S. Figure Skating Championships (junior level), and the Junior World Championship. At the 2008 U.S. Nationals, Paul Wylie commented during an NBC fluff that Rippon has all of the makings to be a future champion, and with airy jumps, blue-ribbon spins, and a flair for musicality, there is undoubtedly a good deal of validity to that statement. Rippon has added a triple axel to his jumping repertoire this season and has generally been a consistent skater in competition. Many have praised Adam's intelligent decision in making a coaching change mid-season from Nikolai Morozov to Brian Orser, as Orser has fewer students to devote his attention to than Morozov.
Cons: Although age-eligible to compete at worlds, Rippon will have a mightily tough act on his back if he hopes to qualify. Rippon has received negative GOEs on all five of his triple axel attempts this season, and fell on two of them. Rippon lost at least seven potential points when he was downgraded on three jumps in the long at Skate America, and his overall showing at that competition, his first senior showing, was an uncharacteristically poor one. Adam's averages this season in the long program for technical elements and program components are 2nd and 3rd lowest, respectively, among the men featured in this post. Rippon's personal best total score of 207.93, achieved at the recent Cup of Russia, is far lower than that of Abbott (237.72), Lysacek (233.11), Weir (231.78), Carriere (218.30), and Bradley (212.75).
Outlook: A diamond in the rough, Rippon will particularly need to focus on his content to out skate the big boys. Getting his triple axel consistent, and preferably putting two of them into his long program will he a big help to the Pennsylvania native, and learning a quad wouldn't hurt, either. Rippon is certainly improving, scoring personal bests in both phases of the competition at his most recent competition, Cup of Russia. Rippon has immaculate basic skating skills, including correct edge take-offs for both his flip and lutz, and Brian Orser's immense expertise of jumps like the triple axel should further fulfill the potential that Rippon has to offer. Although unlikely to be in contention for the world team, Rippon should use this competition to learn, grow, have fun, and take risks. With a former world champion as his coach, and two-time Grand Prix Final champion Yu-Na Kim as his training partner, Rippon will be able to witness the day-to-day happenings of the expectation and preparation of one of the top ladies figure skaters in the world, which should prove useful as soon as Rippon is ready to step into the spotlight and away from the shadows of other top skaters.
Johnny Weir
Noteworthy Results: 2008 Grand Prix Final-3rd, 2008 NHK Trophy-2nd, 2008 Skate America-3rd, 2008 World Figure Skating Championships-3rd, 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-2nd, 2007 Grand Prix Final-4th, 2007 Cup of Russia Champion, 2007 Cup of China Champion, 2007 World Figure Skating Championships-8th, 2007 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-3rd, 2006 World Figure Skating Championships-7th, 2006 Olympic Games-5th, 2006 U.S. Figure Skating Champion, 2005 World Figure Skating Championships-4th, 2005 U.S. Figure Skating Champion, 2004 World Figure Skating Championships-5th, 2004 U.S. Figure Skating Champion
Pros: The only skater since Brian Boitano to have won three consecutive (2004-2006) national titles in the United States, Weir is a distinctly unique skater, from his costume and music selections to the fact that he rotates clockwise as opposed to counter-clockwise. Blessed with heavenly deep knees, assertive presentation, and a renewed fight for the top, these are all desirable cards for Weir to emerge victorious in Cleveland. Weir has butter-smooth triple axels and triple+triple combinations, and is hoping to land his quad for the first time in a major competition. Outside of the jumping department, Weir has very strong spins and footwork that routinely get in the level three and four range, and typically is a recipient of very desirable PCS marks in the U.S. and abroad.
Cons: Weir's biggest opponent at nationals may not be Jeremy Abbott, or Evan Lysacek, but rather something far more subtle called the code of points. Weir got lucky when he did too many combinations during the long at the 2006 U.S. Nationals, where he still had enough breathing room from the short to win. However, karma for his poor decision making in programs greeted him at the 2006 Olympics, where he only did one jump combination in the long and that, among other things, kept him from stepping onto the medals stand. Johnny left out a possible combination again at the 2008 U.S. Nationals, which mathematically speaking cost him a 4th title. At the world championships, Weir once again did two combinations (neither being a three-jump combo), but this time was saved by Daisuke Takahashi being credited with too many combinations, thus forfeiting his spot on the podium to Weir. As far as his skating rivals are concerned, Weir's personal best is lower than that of Lysacek and his seasons average for both TES (especially) and PCS in the long program is lower than that of Abbott. Weir is also routinely given an "e" deduction for liping his triple flip.
Outlook: Despite the retirements of Jeffrey Buttle and Stephane Lambiel and the current absence of Takahashi, the international mens field is immensely deep and Weir cannot afford anything less than a victory here to ensure him of realistic medal prospects when the world championships roll around, and the same holds true for the Olympics next year. Weir's criticism of the code of points is not without its irony, as Johnny has actually been helped by COP for the fact that the quad doesn't have to be a do-or-die jump. The reality is that fighting for every point is necessary, and with close results being commonplace an extra double toe DOES MATTER. Abbott does have the momentum heading into nationals, but by no means is Weir going to let him take an idyllic path to victory. Weir obviously hasn't started working with Galina Zmievskaya, known to be an extremely demanding coach, for nothing. His experience could prove to be his biggest asset, but per the numbers of this season Weir is a slight underdog heading into nationals, an unfamiliar position for him.
Podium Prediction:
Gold: Jeremy Abbott-Has had a phenomenal season thus far and as far as the data is concerned he shouldn't have a problem winning. However, his lack of experience compared to Weir and Lysacek and pressure from winning the Grand Prix Final will be obstacles to overcome. Seems to have the most momentum in terms of confidence and scoring favor, however.
Silver: Johnny Weir-Johnny has historically done well at nationals with a few exceptions (2003, 2007), and has enough experience to skate well despite all of the expectations surrounding him. However, his quad, and his inability to maximize his points in past programs could result in lower scores than what will be necessary to win the title.
Bronze: Evan Lysacek- Will likely look better than earlier in the season, but his quad is hit-or-miss, he has been getting more downgrades this season and his PCS have been regressing.
4th/Pewter: Stephen Carriere-Solid, consistent, and a great jumper, but isn't near to the level of the top three to have a good chance at going to worlds.
5th: Adam Rippon-Wise move to switch coaches; did extremely well at last year's nationals as a junior and it will be interesting to see if he will be intimidated or free-spirited when competing at the biggest event of his career thus far.
6th: Ryan Bradley-Has been a steady but unspectacular player at nationals for a number of years, and while his 2007 performance was a shock to all, the former statement is likely to wind up true in Cleveland.
7th: Brandon Mroz- A great opportunity for him to hold nothing back and gain feedback from judges for further improvement. With solid technical content, he should be right up there in the standings at nationals, although a podium finish is almost out of the question.
UPDATE: Kimmie Meissner has just announced her withdrawal from the U.S. Figure Skating Championships, due to a currently unspecified injury. This likely means the end of her season, and will be lucky just to get one GP assignment next year. Many are speculating that Meissner's retirement may be imminent. My new ladies prediction will be (in order from 1st to 10th): Flatt, Wagner, Zhang, Czisny, Nagasu, Liang, Bereswill, Gilles, Hacker, and Forte.
That is all.
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