2010 U.S. Figure Skating Championships Ladies Preview Part II

Emily Hughes


Expectations Going In: The 20-year-old Great Neck, New York native is best known for being a last-minute replacement for Michelle Kwan at the 2006 Olympics, where Hughes would finish the competition in 7th place. The following year, Hughes followed up that career breakthrough with silver medals attained at both the U.S. Championships and the Four Continents Championships. However, Hughes's skating began to fizzle out thereafter, and she wound up withdrawing from the 2008 and 2009 U.S. Figure Skating Championships. Hughes later announced that she would take the year off from attending Harvard to focus on her efforts of making a second Olympic team. While a loss at the North Atlantic Regionals was not part of her plan, Hughes was invited to compete at Skate America when Sasha Cohen withdrew. Hughes's short program was a relative disaster, but she improved her standing in the free skate by four placements to finish 7th overall.


Pros: Hughes is one of only four women scheduled to compete in Spokane who has the experience of competing at a U.S. Championships in an Olympic year, and she is one of only two women entering this event with Olympic experience. The 2006 Olympian is consistently capable of taking off from her lutz and flip jumps from the correct edge, something very few of the other U.S. ladies can say. Hughes demonstrates commendable flexibility in her spins and spirals, and she is currently showing a more mature style in her long program to the soundtrack from the motion picture Gone with the Wind. Hughes also skates with a creditable amount of speed, and 1998 Olympic gold medalist Tara Lipinski commented that Hughes's work with a ballet coach has helped the 2007 U.S. silver medalist create more defined movement in her choreography.


Cons: Hughes's jump rotation speed is slow when compared to her adversaries, and such a weakness causes her jumps to be under rotated frequently. Even while at the athletic peak of her career (2006-2007), Hughes was prone to under rotating jumps, and her more mature body certainly doesn't help her in this endeavor. Trouble with rotating triples continued at Skate America, where her triple flip in the short and her triple salchow in the long were only credited as doubles. Hughes's reputation has certainly waned in the last couple of years, as evidenced by her relatively low PCS marks at Skate America: a 23.76 in her short and a 46.64 in her long. While her programs have potential, they appear disjointed at the moment, and Hughes is going to have to find ways to connect dots of her program far better than what she is doing now to raise her PCS. An example of this can be found in her long program,  where Hughes does a spiral in the middle of the program. The spiral would be a very nice transition if done shortly before a jump, but Hughes takes so much time to pick up speed and prepare the jump that the overall effect of the movement is lost. Hughes is also known to not have the most steady landing positions: commentators frequently state comments like "She fought for the jump" or "She hangs on," but seldom do they ever say that she outright nails a jump.


Outlook: The Hughes family was blessed with the miracles of Sarah winning Olympic gold and Emily getting to go to the Olympics after Michelle Kwan withdrew, but it will take an even greater miracle than those two for Emily Hughes to make a second Olympic team. Even when adding back all of the marks Hughes lost for negative GOEs, downgrades, and popped/doubled jumps at Skate America, Hughes would have only scored around a 56.06 for her short and a 101.39 for her long. Her short program score would not put her at too much of a disadvantage, but her long program, even with a clean skate, would be easy to surpass for many. One thing that is in Hughes's favor, however, is experience. While Hughes is one to be sluggish during Grand Prixs, she typically is one to deliver at least decent performances at major events later in the season. Hughes has time to improve since Skate America, and she will probably be in better shape for nationals. With little reputation to bank on, however, Hughes will need to make the Olympic team, or any team, the hard way.




Beatrisa Liang


Expectations Going In: Liang appeared to have all the promise one could ask for when she competed at her first U.S. Figure Skating Championships on the senior level in 2001, all the while being just 12 years old. Unfortunately, the 21-year-old Tarzana, Los Angeles native has never fulfilled that early promise, aside from a few career highlights (pewter medalist at the 2007 U.S. Championships, 10th place at 2008 World Championships). Liang's career appears to be spiraling downward more than ever, as she placed 14th at this event last year and was 10th out of 11 skaters at this year's Cup of China. Thus, not much is expected of what could be Liang's final competition.


Pros: The 2006 Four Continents bronze medalist moves extremely quickly while doing anything: jumps, spins, stroking, et al. She achieves decent height on her triples, and she has some of the better spins among the current crop of American ladies skaters. Liang is also one of the most experienced U.S. ladies skaters who are currently competing: she has competed in 11 national championships and nine of them on the senior level. Liang has improved her extension over the years and is one of the few to repeat the lutz and flip jumps - the two hardest jumps besides the axel -  twice in her long program. Liang has finished in the top five four times at the U.S. Championships.


Cons: A 62.93 is considered a very good score for a short program. Although, with the 76+ totals that Yu-Na Kim often receives, the score would be unlikely to top a leader board going into the free skate of a World Championship or Olympic Games. However, Bebe Liang received a 62.93 for her free skate at the Japan Open back in October for a humiliating free skate that contained zero clean triples. Poor, desolate performances from Liang last year dropped her to 14th place, and her 10th place finish from Cup of China was even scarier, as she had the potential to skate much worse than she did. Liang received edge calls on each of the three triple lutzes she attempted at Cup of China, and she also had three triple jumps downgraded in her long program there. Artistically, Liang's transitions are not optimal and her choreography in her current programs is fairly elementary when stacked up against the top U.S. women.


Outlook: It is more likely that pigs will start flying than it is for Liang to make the 2010 Olympic team. Liang had a decent chance of making the 2006 Olympic team, but she blew it when she succumbed to the pressure in the long program by falling twice. She made the most out of her time at what will likely be her only World Championship in 2008, where she cracked the top ten with two decent skates. Since then, however, Liang's skating has gone south and it is unlikely that she will continue beyond this season. Liang is no longer age-eligible to compete at the World Junior Championships, and the Four Continents Championships are scheduled for the week immediately following the ladies competition at Nationals, thus making it questionable as to whether there will be any American representatives in the ladies event there. With all of that said, Liang's last competition may very well be this one, and with the way she has been skating lately, she won't go out with a bang.




Mirai Nagasu


Expectations Going In: The 16-year-old Montebello, California native came out of nowhere to beat heavy favorite Caroline Zhang for the junior title at the 2007 U.S. Championships. Nagasu appeared to be the next great U.S. skater when she surprisingly won the 2008 U.S. Championships as a senior, becoming the second youngest U.S. senior ladies champion in history (Tara Lipinski being the youngest). Unfortunately, a massive growth spurt and an ankle injury severely hindered Nagasu's efforts in the 2008/2009 season, and she has since switched coaches from Charlene Wong to Frank Carroll. Thus far this season, Nagasu has neither helped nor hurt her Olympic bid, but she is still considered a very viable contender for a ticket to the Games.


Pros: Nagasu has superb extension and shows that off to its fullest in her exemplary spins and spirals. Nagasu's growth spurt has enabled her to become much faster across the ice, and her long, lean frame presents viewers with a very attractive body line to watch. Nagasu won the short program at this season's Cup of China with a score of 62.20, a short program total which has only been surpassed by four women in ISU competition this season. Also, the two-time Junior Worlds medalist is prone to peaking at Nationals, as she won the junior title in 2007 and senior title in 2008. Also, even though Nagasu did not medal in 2009, her overall showing there was far superior to her performances at her two Grand Prix events earlier that season. Nagasu showed to be a formidable competitor last year, when she arrived to her free skate in tears and admirably finished her skate without major error. Nagasu has always been marked favorably by the U.S. judges: in 2008, she broke 70 points for her short program and placed above Caroline Zhang's clean long program with a free skate that contained a fall and an under rotated jump.


Cons: Nagasu has always had a huge tendency to flutz, but at Skate Canada, she was given an edge call for her flip in the short and both of her lutzes in the long. Nagasu had four triples and one double jump downgraded during her free skate at Cup of China, and she also received downgrades on two double jumps at Skate Canada. Nagasu's PCS marks went down from Cup of China to Skate Canada for both programs, and while she rotated all of her triples during her long at the latter event, her expression and overall artistry suffered immensely. Nagasu has taken the salchow jump out of her repertoire, and she only attempted five triples in her long at Skate Canada. Two of those triples were lutzes, which are often taken off from the wrong edge or under rotated, and another was a flip jump, an element which was downgraded twice at last year's Nationals. Several of Nagasu's comments that she made at the U.S. Olympic Media Summit about her not being very pretty or very smart, while honest, indicate that Nagasu's confidence level is precarious at best.


Outlook: Nagasu's fall international season has lagged behind those of Czisny, Flatt, and Wagner; however, her scoring potential and ability to peak at nationals make her chances to make the Olympic team very realistic. What should decide Nagasu's fate will be her ability to rotate jumps. Even though the execution judges are no longer required to give a downgraded jump a -GOE, under rotated jumps are still very costly under the new scoring system and will tarnish any advantage Nagasu would have on the second mark. Luckily for Nagasu, Czisny and Wagner have frequently had jumps downgraded as well, and Nagasu receiving full credit for her planned five triples at Skate Canada is certainly a step in the right direction. Nagasu has scored well domestically, and she will be difficult to unseat for an Olympic berth if she goes close to clean in Spokane. However, a meager difference in the rotation of a jump can put a lifelong dream on hold.




Ashley Wagner


Expectations Going In: Wagner burst out onto the scene as a senior level skater in the 2007/2008 season when she took home a bronze medal at the U.S. Championships. Battling injury, pressure, and the unenviable task of following Miki Ando (who withdrew during the beginning of her skate due to an injury), Wagner only finished 16th at her only World Championship thus far. The 2008 U.S. bronze medalist decided to change coaches from Shirley Hughes to Priscilla Hill in 2008, and while Wagner didn't make the world team last year, her coaching switch appears to be paying off with two medals on the Grand Prix this season and a 4th place finish at the Grand Prix Final. Wagner appears to be the favorite to take the second Olympic ticket (behind Rachael Flatt), but with Czisny and Nagasu nipping at her heels, Wagner cannot attain an Olympic berth without two creditable performances.


Pros: The change in Wagner's artistry since moving to Priscilla Hill is night and day, and the two-time World Junior bronze medalist has two strong, dramatic programs this season to showcase that improvement: a short to the soundtrack of Once Upon a Time in America, and a long to the music of "Polovtsian Dances." Wagner is one of the most complete U.S. ladies skaters, boasting strong jumps, spins, speed, and musicality.  Wagner was the only U.S. lady to qualify to the Grand Prix Final, and a 4th place finish there should help her out politically heading into Nationals. Wagner won the long program at last year's U.S. Championships with only five clean triples, and she placed ahead of Rachael Flatt and Caroline Zhang, who both landed six triples. Wagner was the only U.S. lady to medal in both of her Grand Prix events this season, and she set personal bests at the Rostelecom Cup for both her long program and her overall segment total. Wagner stated on her Facebook account that she is "plugging away at those triple-triples," and Priscilla Hill insisted in a New York Times article that Wagner was far from her optimum form during the Grand Prix season.


Cons: Wagner has yet to kick her flutz habit to the curb, and out of six attempts at that jump during this season's Grand Prix she received one "!" and five "e" edge-calls (and the "e" edge-calls are the more severe of the two). She is also a skater to often under rotate jumps, and no jump is immune from being downgraded for Wagner. The current U.S. pewter medalist has had not one, but two, double axels downgraded this season, and she also has received two downgrades on her second triple flip in the long program. Wagner puts a triple lutz late in the long program, which she often receives a -2 GOE for, even if otherwise done cleanly, instead of doing an easier triple toe that would give her around the same point value. The same logic could also be applied to her short program, where the substitution of a loop or salchow for her lutz would likely augment her score. Also, Wagner's plans to do a triple-triple backfired last year, and she has not competed one cleanly since 2008 Nationals. Wagner's PCS went down in the long program from NHK Trophy to the Grand Prix Final, with her GPF free skate being far superior to her one executed at NHK.


Outlook: For better or for worse, Wagner certainly has confidence, going as far as to imply that she could surprise and win the Olympic Games in a New York Times article. Wagner has easily been the second best skater in the long program this year, but Czisny should have an advantage with her short program if Wagner's flutz remains intact. It is worth mentioning that the U.S. technical specialists tend to be more lax with edge calls and have been so to Wagner's lutzes in the past: in 2008, Wagner received no edge call for any of her three lutzes, and she only received an "!" for one of them in 2009. However, the U.S. technical specialists were not shy at Nationals last year when it came to downgrading jumps, which is something that could make an attempt at a triple-triple unwise. Scott Hamilton did mention during his commentary at the Grand Prix Final that Wagner should increase her difficulty, but cleanliness might be the best route with top rivals such as Czisny and Nagasu bound to make errors somewhere. Wagner has been neither brilliant nor dreadful this season, but she has been reasonably solid across three competitions. Adding that with a 4th place finish at the Grand Prix Final should ensure Wagner of the ability to control her own destiny at the U.S. Championships, as she has been marked well at this event in the past with less credentials entering in.




Caroline Zhang


Expectations Going In: Like Nagasu, Caroline Zhang was considered a budding talent whilst on the junior ranks, as evidenced by her taking home the gold medal at the 2007 World Junior Championships. Her first experience on the senior Grand Prix went well, and she took 4th place at the 2007 Grand Prix Final with an overall score that has not since been matched by a U.S. lady in ISU competition. Zhang was too young to qualify to the senior world team in 2008, but she became eligible in 2009 and just missed a spot on the team. Many felt that she should have been on the world team with her impressive performances at both the 2009 Four Continents Championships and the 2009 World Team Trophy. Since then, however, Zhang has not indicated that she will skate well enough in Spokane to be at all deserving of an Olympic berth.


Pros: Arguably the most flexible skater in the world, Zhang is renowned for her six o'clock spirals and her stunning "pearl" and Bielmann spin positions, as she frequently receives high levels and GOE through the roof for her spins and spiral sequences. Zhang delivered near clean long programs at both the 2008 and the 2009 U.S. Championships and is one to perform near her optimum in the later part of the season. Zhang's new short program to "Zigeunerweisen" showcases a fire and intensity that has been missing from several of her previous programs. Zhang's personal best in her long program, a 116.80, has only been surpassed by one of the ladies set to compete in Spokane, Sasha Cohen. Zhang also has a full arsenal of triples besides the axel and will likely be one of the only women attempting triple-triple combinations in Spokane.


Cons: Zhang didn't perform terribly at her opening event of the season, Trophee Eric Bompard, but her PCS marks went down considerably from when she had last competed at the World Team Trophy. Zhang would go on to miss the podium at that event and finish 4th, but the worst was yet to come. At Skate Canada, Zhang had the worst long program of her career as a senior level skater, scoring only 77.88 for a performance of which contained two falls and an invalid jumping pass. Zhang's poor speed, transitions, and overall artistry were reflected brashly in the judges' marks, with one judge going as far as to give Zhang a 2.5 for transitions. Zhang has not had much political favor domestically, and her fall international showing will certainly not aid her in that regard. Zhang landed six triples in her 2008 and 2009 Nationals free skates, but both times she only finished 4th in the long program phase of the event. Zhang has said to be incapable of breaking out of her comfort zone, and it certainly appears to be that way with so many of her weaknesses including her flutz, mule kick, poor stroking, lack of transitions, and molasses speed showing little or no improvement from when she was on the junior level.


Outlook: Zhang's season appears to have been doomed from the start, with two coaching changes and a partial tear of her ACL occurring over the summer. Zhang had a pitiful outing at Skate Canada, but she has shown a fighting spirit several times in the past and should improve for nationals; however, even a dramatic improvement will mean nothing for Zhang's nearly non-existent Olympic chances. The U.S. judges have never scored Zhang beneficially and certainly won't start doing so with her poor Grand Prix season. Zhang will still be much in the running to earn a 4th ticket to what is perhaps a painfully familiar event for her: the World Junior Championships. Zhang's poor technique on just about every jump (except the salchow, which interestingly she never did throughout much of 2007-2008) and her poor speed going into those jumps will hold Zhang back forever unless if major changes are to be in order. Zhang did grow taller last year, yet she interestingly dealt with all of her technical issues well (for the most part). Unfortunately, it appears as though an injury and a further growth spurt have expired Zhang's success with her many technique foibles. Zhang is incredibly talented and can make a splash come 2014, if she does something she has never done before: break out of her comfort zone.


Predictions


Gold: Rachael Flatt- Flatt should start winning respect from the U.S. judges after her excellent showing at Skate America. If Cohen is not to come back and Czisny remains a headcase - both of which appear likely - Flatt will be the United States' only hope for a ladies medal in Vancouver.


Silver: Ashley Wagner- If the U.S. judges are lax with edge calls, Wagner will be in very good stead to make her first Olympic team. Still, the two-time Junior World bronze medalist would be wise to arrange her jump layouts in such a way that she wouldn't have a try the jump in either program. Triple-triple combinations are great if they're landed (or even just rotated), but they could be unnecessary, or detrimental, to Wagner's Olympic bid.


Bronze: Alissa Czisny- Quite an irony this would be if Czisny were to finish 3rd after basically losing the third spot for the United States in Los Angeles. The judges would look terrible if they blatantly prop up Czisny as they did last year, but she still should be marked favorably with a decent fall international season behind her. However, Czisny cannot go clean in both programs to save her life, and an Olympic ticket on the line won't help her out at all in that endeavor.

4th: Mirai Nagasu- She should perform at least decently here considering her past nationals showings, but downgrades always plague her and could cost her dearly at this event. Nagasu's PCS have been fine domestically, but have not been so fine internationally this season. Thus, it will be interesting to see if her lower PCS marks (especially comparative to Czisny's) at Skate Canada will show up at Nationals.


5th: Caroline Zhang- Has no where to go but up after her performance at Skate Canada, and she has delivered good skates at the past two U.S. Championships. All of that won't mean anything, however, because the judges won't be on her side.


6th: Christina Gao- She has good jumps, very good jumps, and not much else. Still, Brian Orser and his assistants are absolutely heading Gao in the right direction, and she is in the position to have a very admirable showing at these Championships.


7th: Emily Hughes- She had an adequate outing at Skate America on short notice and should display relative improvement for this competition. Under rotated jumps will be a major factor in her placement, but Hughes is experienced enough to get decent PCS and avoid cleaning the ice here.


8th: Alexe Gilles- She is a fairly elegant skater but her jumps are quite often not there for her. She had a fair showing last year and will hopefully take that experience to perform well again.


9th: Bebe Liang- She generally manages somewhat decent showings at nationals, but top ten will probably be the highest realistic goal for her after her poor finish last year and her rough outings in the fall.


WD: Sasha Cohen- Her injury situation was dire enough to pull her out of an event with a weak field and little at stake at Skate America. Recent videos from the show "Improv Ice" show Cohen struggling with one of the easiest jumps, the salchow. Perhaps we may be lucky enough and see Cohen show up in Spokane to do a short program and then mysteriously bow out prior to the long.

2010 U.S. Figure Skating Championships Ladies Preview

Two years ago at this very competition, the talent pool for U.S. ladies figure skating appeared limitless. There was Mirai Nagasu, the winner of the event who scored an eye-popping 70.23 points for her short program. Then there was silver medalist Rachael Flatt, who landed ten triples throughout the course of the competition, bronze medalist Ashley Wagner, who displayed a rare triple lutz-triple loop combination in both programs, and 4th place finisher Caroline Zhang, who skated an excellent long program while still finishing outside of the top three. Unfortunately, an age rule preventing Nagasu, Flatt, and Zhang from competing at Worlds meant that U.S. Figure Skating would be represented by the then immature Wagner, the interminably error-prone Beatrisa Liang, and the confidence-stricken Kimmie Meissner. Not surprisingly, the U.S. ladies failed to earn three berths for the following year's World Championships. The ladies' prospects for the 2009 World Championships hardly looked better, and the result was no different. Alissa Czisny managed to splat her way to win the 2009 U.S. title in controversial fashion, and she would splat once again, twice in fact, in her short program at the 2009 World Championships. Czisny would eventually finish 11th, while compatriot Rachael Flatt fared better to finish 5th; however, no U.S. lady had proven to have the technical and artistic gifts to realistically vie for a medal, and certainly not a gold, on a premier international stage.



Enter Sasha Cohen. The 2006 Olympic silver medalist was supposed to save the day; she was supposed to be the solution to win a medal at the Winter Games, or, at the very least, to ignite increased exposure for the Olympics that would not be existent otherwise. Fans around the world, perhaps delusionally, thought that this comeback effort would be brilliant. Cohen was looking fit on tour. Cohen was supposedly practicing triple-triples. Cohen was going to be coached by task master Rafael Artunian. Cohen was going to rearrange her "Moonlight Sonata" program that was so lauded on tour. Now, Cohen is merely attempting to save her own comeback from amounting to nothing. Cohen is on her third strike now, having withdrawn from TEB and Skate America, but it is still debatable over whether Cohen will even attempt to step up to bat in January.



While Cohen has been out of it, several of the U.S. ladies have been faring much better. Rachael Flatt beat current World Champion Yu-Na Kim in the free skate at this season's Skate America, and Flatt didn't even receive credit for her final spin combination. Ashley Wagner pulled off an impressive 4th place finish at the 2009 Grand Prix Final. Alissa Czisny has even managed to skate several clean short programs this year, and she won a silver medal at this season's Skate Canada. Mirai Nagasu's season has not been brilliant, but even she won the short program at the 2009 Cup of China. Cohen certainly has an uphill climb to make the Olympic team while planning to compete for the first time in nearly four years, but it is still not out of the question for her to do so if she is to miraculously become fit, healthy, and peaked for nationals. Despite what the selection procedure states about Olympic team results being decided on multiple events, all does come down to the results of the 2010 U.S. Figure Skating Championships. The training has been arduous; the pressure, intense; but the rewards of earning the right to compete at the Olympics speak for themselves. After January 23rd, 2010, two women will be able to call those rewards their own.



Skaters Featured in Post

Sasha Cohen
Alissa Czisny
Rachael Flatt
Christina Gao
Alexe Gilles

Emily Hughes
Beatrisa Liang
Mirai Nagasu
Ashley Wagner
Caroline Zhang


Red indicates commentary of skater is featured in part one of preview
Blue indicates commentary of skater is featured in part two of preview




Sasha Cohen


Expectations Going In: Cohen enters this event as the true enigma of the championship. The 25-year-old Laguna Niguel, California native’s programs have yet to be shown in their entirety, fans haven’t even seen her jump since a show at the beginning of October, and her injury - tendinitis in her calf - was first thought to be a sham. Cohen's injury was serious enough to keep her out of Skate America, which was host to a very weak ladies field (with the exception of Kim and Flatt). The blog "Aunt Joyce's Ice Cream Stand" reports that Cohen is continuing to struggle in training. Hence, few of Cohen's fans are so hopeful any longer, and it would be surprise to many just to see Cohen board a flight to Spokane in January.


Pros: Cohen's artistry far surpasses that of any of the U.S. women competing today. The two-time Olympian has supreme musicality and interpretation, qualities which were the prime reason why she won the 2006 Olympic silver medal and World Championship medals in 2004, 2005, and 2006. Armed with legs that extend to tomorrow, beautifully shaped feet, and a supple back, Cohen is one of the most limber athletes to ever compete in figure skating, with such flexibility allowing her spin and spiral positions to be nothing short of brilliant. Cohen has long been scored favorably both domestically and abroad, and the judges marked Cohen well at the 2006 Olympic Games, despite her having two major mistakes in her long program. ISU head Ottavio Cinquanta commented upon the announcement of Cohen's return that "Now we can have the Sasha Cohen era as a strong skater with more experience," and that "It is a good decision for the ISU and her." Statements such as those suggest that Cohen is still favored politically even after having not competed for years. U.S. Figure Skating, void of having a star in the ladies event since Cohen's departure from the sport, should feel no differently toward Cohen if she is to skate well in Spokane.


Cons: Cohen is a habitual flutz offender and will likely receive wrong-edge deductions for that jump that she did not receive during and before 2006. Cohen has yet to skate a clean long program at a U.S. Championships, World Championships, or Olympic Games. Cohen's injury situation is obviously dire- or at least it was a month ago - because her old form would have had no issue medaling at Skate America. Recent returns to competition after injury from Patrick Chan, Stephane Lambiel, and Daisuke Takahashi haven't exactly been smooth, and they weren't away from competition as long as Cohen, nor were they making their return to events with as much pressure as what Cohen will face in Spokane. Debuting programs and testing out jumps for the first time with an Olympic team berth on the line will be a daunting task for the 2006 U.S. Champion, who has never been an especially brilliant competitor or jumper, even while at her athletic peak. The other U.S. ladies have had time to test out their programs, get feedback on them, and to rearrange jump layouts if necessary; Cohen, however, has none of those luxuries entering this event.


Outlook: Even though Cohen is planning on making her return to a competition that is essentially an Olympic trials, she really has little to lose if she is to perform poorly here, provided she doesn't risk further injury. Cohen has already competed at two Olympics and won a medal, and a failed comeback won't be the first thing that defines Sasha Cohen to people in the skating community after all of this is said and done. After all, Cohen has commented that she misses the fire and intensity associated with competition, and what better way to experience that than at a national championship in an Olympic year. It is unknown how much or how little Cohen will factor in at this event, or if she will even make an attempt to factor in at all. Cohen would be the first lady in 74 years to make a third U.S. Olympic team, but the 2006 Olympic silver medalist's efforts to make that happen have likely been too little, too late.




Alissa Czisny


Expectations Going In: At last year's U.S. Championships, Czisny was one of four athletes (Flatt, Wagner, and Zhang being the other three) favored to make the world team. Out of the four, Czisny was chosen as the judges' favorite and she became national title in an extremely controversial result. Czisny only managed to land three clean triples in her long program, yet she placed above Caroline Zhang, who landed six triples, in that portion of the competition. USFSA's tactless and peculiar propping up of Czisny backfired when the reigning U.S. Champion continued upon her head case ways, as she fell twice in the short program at the World Championships en route to an 11th place finish. A disappointing outing in L.A., however, didn't seem to hinder Czisny's confidence badly in the least. Czisny won a silver medal at Skate Canada, and while she has met with trouble in several of her long programs this year, her short program has been successful competition after competition. Czisny is not favored to repeat as champion, but she does still make a strong case for the second Olympic berth.


Pros: Czisny is one of the world's most exemplary spinners, spinning faster than a tornado while maintaining immaculate positions. The two-time world team member has always been noted for her artistry and maturity on the ice, and she has two great programs to showcase that this year: a short program to Mask of Zorro and an improved revival of last year's long program to Dr. Zhivago. Her current programs have been well received by the international judges, as evidenced by Czisny having the highest average PCS score in the long program among all of the U.S. women this season. Czisny is one of the few U.S. ladies consistently capable of taking off of an outside edge whilst attempting a lutz jump, and she is also one of just a handful of skaters to ever perform a Charlotte spiral. Czisny has skated near-clean short programs at every competition she has skated in since the 2009 Worlds, and her SP score of 63.52 at Skate Canada has only been bested by current world medalists Yu-Na Kim, Joannie Rochette, and Miki Ando so far this season.


Cons: Czisny was coming into the 2006 U.S. Championships as one of the favorites to claim an Olympic berth after she had qualified to the Grand Prix Final. Instead, Czisny would fall five times throughout the course of the event and finish the event in 7th place. Czisny has taken much effort to improve her jump technique and her consistency in competition, whether it be attending numerous competitions throughout the summer or working on her jumps with Brian Boitano and his former coach, Linda Leaver. Czisny has improved, but her nerves are still bound to fail her at inopportune times. Czisny fell once in her long program at the Rostelecom Cup and twice in her long at Skate Canada, and she had nine triples downgraded between Nebelhorn and her two Grand Prixs this season. Czisny has not received full credit for a triple loop at an ISU event this season, and she does not attempt a triple salchow jump. She also has a tendency to take off of her triple flip from an outside edge, thus incurring an additional penalty.


Outlook: One shouldn't expect the judges to prop up Czisny like they did last year - particularly if Cohen competes - but she has been marked well internationally this season and her always favorable marks at the U.S. Championships should continue to come. The two-time U.S. medalist has been upgrading her jump content, as she has added both a double axel-double axel sequence and a second triple loop to her long program jump layout. She would be wise to scale back her second loop to a double axel, as her triple loop consistency from last season has vanished. Czisny should go for a safer jump layout because her PCS, spins, and spirals will be enough to cushion her over Ashley Wagner, who lacks Czisny's finesse and doesn't have as high a scoring potential in the short program. Czisny's consistency with short programs has been impressive this year, and continued solidity there should allow her to be ranked first or second after that phase. However, Wagner can surpass her in the long program if Czisny's downgrade woes continue. Czisny's chances for actually repeating as champion of the United States are low, as Rachael Flatt certainly has picked up much momentum after Skate America. Czisny should still have an advantage over Flatt with PCS, but likely not as much as before, and Flatt's jumps should have no issue making up any ground on the second mark. Czisny's case for making the team via the second spot is by no means assured; however, she is a strong enough skater to control her own destiny toward securing that ticket.




Rachael Flatt


Expectations Going In: The 17-year-old native of Del Mar, California, won the U.S. silver medal in 2008 and 2009, both competitions of which some felt she should have won. Too young to qualify in 2008, Flatt made her first trip to the senior worlds in 2009, where she took full advantage of others' mistakes to finish in the top five. Her 2009/2010 season started off abruptly with a weak showing at the Cup of China, where she finished 4th, but the disappointment of that event was erased with a strong second place finish at Skate America, where she landed seven triples in her long program and beat Yu-Na Kim in that phase. Although Flatt narrowly missed qualifying to the Grand Prix Final, she does enter her fourth U.S. Championships at the senior level as the favorite.


Pros: Flatt marked a personal best score of 116.11 for her long at Skate America, which is the highest long program mark attained by any American lady this season by over seven points. Flatt attained the score even though her final spin combination did not count, and her long program and overall segment scores from that competition have only been bested by five women thus far this season. The reigning U.S. silver medalist has improved several aspects of her skating for this Olympic season, including her presentation to the audience (best evidenced in her short program to "Sing, Sing, Sing") and her lutz, which received no edge call at Skate America or Cup of China. Flatt has skated cleanly (minus a downgrade on her triple-triple last year) at the last two U.S. Championships and is easily the most consistent jumper among the top American women.


Cons: Flatt has a very awkwardly proportioned body and it hinders parts of her skating such as flexibility and posture. Flatt is routinely criticized for her lack of speed and this weakness continues to be very much on display during her long program to "Rhapsody on a Theme of Paganini," where Flatt gets little power in her stroking during the later part of the program. Flatt's posture is considerably hunched over, and she thus doesn't have great usage of her upper body as she skates. To top that off, several of Flatt’s spin positions are less than desirable, with her catch-foot spin being particularly poor. In regards to political favor, Flatt has not received the benefit of the doubt at the last two U.S. Championships. In 2008, Flatt went to skate a clean short that contained a triple-triple, but she only finished third in that phase and was over seven points behind Nagasu. In 2009, Czisny's short program scored over five points higher than Flatt's short (with both skating programs with similar content and execution) and Czisny's three-triple long program only placed a little over a point below Flatt's six triple long program at that event. Flatt's PCS score during her long at those U.S. Championships was also only the 5th highest of the night for a basically clean skate, and she scored over seven points back of Czisny on that mark.


Outlook: Flatt was nearly 18 points away from the bronze medal at the World Championships, but the international judges are warming up to her and with Cohen's comeback woes, Czisny's jump issues, and Wagner's inconsistency, Flatt looks to be the only American woman with even a remote shot of contending for an Olympic medal. The judges can arrange the marks how they want to, but Flatt has marked over 116 for a long program when Wagner's best is under 109 and Czisny and Nagasu are struggling just to break 100. Slow, mundane, boring, flat, whatever you want to call her, Flatt is more and more looking like the top American woman and the U.S. judges ought to recognize that and favor her instead of favoring someone else who will diminish the need for a Zamboni. With the results of the 2009 Worlds and Skate America, Flatt's PCS should increase for the U.S. Championships, and she should be looking at a first U.S. title and a ticket to Vancouver if she arrives as fit to Spokane as she has for the past two years at this event.




Christina Gao


Expectations Going In: Gao is not a contender for the Olympic team, but she could make a case for either the Four Continents team or the Junior Worlds team if she continues her rapid improvement under the tutelage of Brian Orser. Gao will be entering her first U.S. Championships on the senior level after finishing third last year on the junior level. She bested Canadian Cynthia Phaneuf during the long program at a competition in Quebec last summer, and she won three bronze medals this year on the Junior Grand Prix circuit, including one of them that was attained at the Junior Grand Prix Final.


Pros: Gao scored personal bests in both phases of competition at the Junior Grand Prix Final, and she completed all of her planned triple jumps successfully. Gao has both a high jump and a quick head spot, which enable her to rotate her triples consistently. Brian Orser's magic as a coach is clearly rubbing off on Gao, who has gone from being the third ranked junior skater at U.S nationals last year to becoming the top U.S. finisher at the Junior Grand Prix Final. Gao has the 7th highest seasons best among the U.S. ladies, and she was credited with landing six triple jumps at the Junior Grand Prix Final, something that Czisny, Nagasu, Wagner, and Zhang have yet to do in an ISU competition this season. Gao can also be lauded for her ability to go outside the box with different music choices: she skates her short program to "Morning Passages" from the film soundtrack of The Hours and her long program is to the music of the ballet "La Fille Mal Gardee."


Cons: Gao is in desperate need of extension in her sit spins, spirals, and choreography. Gao lacks stylistic maturity and is not one to project and express herself to the audience. Her personal best score of 151.47 achieved at JGPF is solid, but even when adding in 3-4 points for a missing spiral sequence (as the juniors aren't currently allowed to have a spiral in their LP) and a possible score inflation, Gao would still have been 10-15 points back of placing in the top three at last year's U.S. Championships with clean skates. It is also worth mentioning that Gao's scores at her opening two Junior Grand Prixs were over 16 points lower than what she attained in Tokyo at the Final. Gao has an egregious flutz, and she doesn't appear to have enough speed coming out of her triple lutz or a strong enough toe-pick assistance on her double toe to upgrade that combination to a triple-triple. Gao will not only need to speed up to challenge the top U.S. women, but she will also need to augment her currently rudimentary choreography.


Outlook: Gao should be extremely proud of her improvement, as she went from scoring a 128.69 at last year's U.S. Championships to a 151.47 at JGPF in less than a year. Gao should have no issue breaking the top ten in Spokane and solid performances like those she produced in Tokyo could even break her into the top six. A strong showing at nationals should get Gao either a Four Continents assignment or a Junior Worlds assignment, the latter of which being more likely. Gao turns 16 in July 2010 and has a bright future ahead of her. She still has much room to grow and improve, but she has come a long way in the last year and should continue to do under the eyes of Brian Orser. Gao is blessed with a very ideal body for a figure skater, and she will hopefully fine tune her technique and artistry in the coming future to let her skating reach its fullest potential.




Alexe Gilles


Expectations Going In: Gilles appeared to be a possible dark horse for an Olympic team after winning the bronze medal at the Junior Grand Prix Final last season and placing 5th at Trophee Eric Bompard this year. Unfortunately, a 10th place finish at Skate America won't do well for Gilles's nerves, nor will it serve her in good stead in the eyes of the judges in Spokane. Gilles has a reasonable chance for a Four Continents or Junior Worlds assignment, but her prospects of making an Olympic or World Championship team are far darker than even a dark horse's.


Pros: Gilles has a charming, elegant presence on the ice, which she best shows off in her beautiful short program to Strauss's Cinderella. Gilles placed 2nd in TES and 4th overall during the short program phase of this year’s Trophee Eric Bompard. Gilles would go on to beat Carolina Kostner, Kiira Korpi, and Elene Gedevanishvilli to finish 5th, and Gilles was just 1.24 points away from taking 4th ahead of compatriot Caroline Zhang. Gilles is one of the only U.S. skaters who are consistently capable of taking off from the correct edge on her lutz, and she did not receive any downgrades for her triple jumps at TEB. Gilles gets nice height on her triples and is also solid in the other elements of her skating, as evidenced by her receiving level threes and fours for all of her non-jump elements (except one) throughout her two Grand Prix events.


Cons: Gilles doesn't have much of a reputation domestically or internationally, and her scores at both TEB and last year's U.S. Championships were both thought to be too low by many fans. Gilles has somewhat erratic jumps and it will be difficult with her 5'7" frame to be able to gain that consistency (just ask Carolina Kostner). Tara Lipinski also commented at Skate America that part of the problem that tends to give Gilles issues on her jumps is her lack of speed going into them. A lack of speed throughout Gilles's stroking and non-jump elements does impede her overall scoring potential sizably. Gilles is somewhat prone to lipping, as she received an "!" edge call for all three of her triple flip attempts at Skate America. Also, Gilles has relatively weak flexibility and has a particularly unflattering Biellmann position (if one could even call it that). The choreography in Gilles's programs is fairly elementary, as are her transitions preceding major elements.


Outlook: Gilles is a talented skater with a creditable sense of musicality and pretty jumps when they are on. However, she has quite a bit of room for improvement and will need to fill that if she is to ever make a World Championship or Olympic team. Gilles is actually fairly consistent with rotating jumps despite being so tall, but her timing has to be 100% precise to land the difficult triples considering her height. Gilles will need to skate faster in all of her elements: stroking, spins, spirals among them. Gilles also needs to add more difficult choreography and a triple loop entering her jump repertoire couldn't hurt either. Despite these weaknesses, Gilles's basics are there. Her edges are decent, she has nice square hips while approaching her flip and lutz jumps, and she does have an innate sense of musicality. Gilles is 17 and should thus have the next quadrennial to make these improvements if she chooses to continue skating. While Gilles may not be in Vancouver, it is very possible that she will be skating at several major competitions to come.

 
Part two to come shortly.

2009 Skate America Ladies SP Live Commentary

Starting Order

Warm-Up Group 1
1 Emily HUGHES USA
2 Tugba KARADEMIR TUR
3 Alexe GILLES USA
4 Elena GLEBOVA EST
5 Sarah HECKEN GER
6 Susanna POYKIO FIN

Warm-Up Group 2
7 Joshi HELGESSON SWE
8 Fumie SUGURI JPN
9 Elene GEDEVANISHVILI GEO
10 Julia SEBESTYEN HUN
11 Rachael FLATT USA
12 Yu-Na KIM KOR

5:59 CT Judges have been announced. Warm-Up Group 1 about to take ice. Gilles in pink; Glebova in green.
Gilles joking with Tom Z.
6:00 Competitors take ice.
Emily Hughes gets big ovation; one noticeably louder than compatriot Alexe Gilles.
Hughes is in black dress.
Gilles-clean 2A
Glebova-good 3T; Tara Lipinski commentating and mentions Glebova struggling in practice.
Hecken needs greater than a 128 total score to make Olympic team for Germany.
Poykio in blue dress with rhinestones.
Hecken-Clean 3S
6:07 Warm-up concluded.



Emily Hughes (USA)
1Z+2T-big mistake; very slow entrance
3F-landed well but likely UR
2A-good height and controlled landing
Spiral-good height of the free leg but leg is slightly bent. Back is too dropped.
Great layback to catch-foot layback to Bielmann
Good straight line step sequence
Decent final spin; a tad slow on the last few revolutions
Good expression and speed


TES: 21.56
PCS: 23.72
Total: 45.32



Tugba Karademir (Turkey)
2F+2T-didn't get down into ice on takeoff and big toe-axel on 2T
3S-OK; possible UR
Turned-in layback position
Spiral Sequence-nice leg line
2A-good
Good spin combo
Footwork a bit simplistic
Last spin combo-well centered but a tad slow

FYI: Lipinski's commentary is awful.

TES: 27.50
PCS: 21.92
Total: 49.42
Rank: 1



Alexe Gilles (USA)
3Z+1T-possible UR on 3Z; double footed first jump
1F-weight off in air
2A-nice; good transition preceding it
Good layback but slow and poorly extended Bielmann
Nice spiral
Flying sit spin-not much amplitude; leg in sit spin not extended fully
Footwork starts off well but gets slower
Very elegant program but not nearly as strong as her SP from TEB.


TES: 24.04
PCS: 22.52
Total: 46.56
Rank: 2



Elena Glebova (Estonia)
3S-good but intended 3F
Spiral-relatively poor extension
3T+3T-very nice
Sit spin/pancake variation-well centered but a tad slow
Footwork-good in places but bland overall
2A-low but landed
Completely missed her flying sit
Decent final spins
Relatively bland program; she skated to a strong piece of music of which she had trouble living up to in her skating. I enjoyed her "Songs My Mother Taught Me" SP from last year more. Good skate technically aside from unusual spin error.


TES: 28.80
PCS: 23.48
Total: 52.28
Rank: 1



Sarah Hecken (Germany)
2T-intended 3T+3T but slow entrance; legs loose in air; forward on landing of 2T and didn't do combo
3S-nice
2A-nice
Slow spin
Very poor spiral
Decent catchfoot layback
Footwork-needs more speed; moves not finished; decent expression
Camel extension poor
Facial expression is decent but other than that her movements are very unpolished and slow. First jumping pass was off but the second and third were very clean.


TES: 24.10
PCS: 19.76
Total: 43.86
Rank: 5



Susanna Poykio (Finland)
3Z(very slow; leaning in the air, hand down and likely UR)+2T-landed
2F-fall out
Turned-in layback position
2A-good
Spiral-dropped back; relatively poor free leg extension
Footwork slow
Finished after music
One of the worst skates I can recall seeing from her. Extremely bland, slow program


TES: 22.80
PCS: 23.92
Total: 46.72
Rank: 3


Warm-Up Group 2 on ice. Kim from same dress as TEB. Suguri from same dress from COC. Lipinski mentions Suguri having issues in practice.
Flatt in pink (I believe same one as COC)
Kim-Good 3F
Kim-Another good 3F.
Kim-good 3Z+3T
Flatt-Good but likely UR 3F+3T.
Warm-up concluded.



Joshi Helgesson (Sweden)
Nice expression at start
3T-landed well
3Z+2T-good height; landed; slight loss of speed coming out of 3Z
2A-good; spiral coming out
Spiral sequence-extension poor
Footwork a bit slow, lots of twizzle-esque movements
Turned-in layback position
Weak Bielmann
Very quirky presentation and a clean program; really needs to work on both polishing all of her positions and improving her transitions from element to element


TES: 29.48
PCS: 21.84
Total: 51.32
Rank: 2



Fumie Suguri (Japan)
3Z(slightly flutzed; free leg very crossed over on landing; possible UR)+2T-landed
3F-good control and height; slight cheat
Good speed in spin but positions are weak
Spiral extension relatively poor
2A-good
Deathdrop-traveled slightly; sit spin could be lower
Footwork a bit slow; good expression
Finished slightly after music
Better attention to the music and the choreography than she has done in several previous programs. This program is quite a bit better than her LP.


TES: 29.28
PCS: 26.76
Total: 56.04
Rank: 1
3F apparently got downgraded



Elene Gedevanishvilli (Georgia)
2Z-legs too loose upon propeling up into the air
3T(forward)+2T-landed
Nice spiral extension
Spiral immediately into 2A-slightly forward but controlled well
Good combo spin
Good use of edges in footwork; not as expressive as she is capable of
Nice sit spin/pancake variation
Not as much spark as she is capable; a good program overall but the technical mistakes seem to diminish her interest in the performance


TES: 27.90
PCS: 24.28
Total: 52.18
Rank: 3



Julia Sebestyen (Hungary)
3Z+2T-great height and control
3F-good height; possible slight cheat
Good donut spin
Spiral extension relatively poor
2A-good
Traveling in layback; poor position; slow
Footwork-decent energy; a bit slow
Lacks flexibility and polish but has great height on her jumps and good speed. Decent energy.


TES: 32.10
PCS: 26.44
Total: 58.54
Rank: 1



Rachael Flatt (USA)
3F+3T(leaning to the right; fall; possible slight UR)
3Z-leaning to the side; didn't hold landing very long but clean
Spiral sequence-adequate
Good layback; a tad slow
2A-low but landed
Great energy in footwork
Good speed in final spin
Actually a very nice program aside from the opening fall. Much improved musicality and personality from COC.


TES: 33.40
PCS: 26.40
Ded: -1.00
Total: 55.80
Rank: 1



Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
3Z+3T-superb
3F-very good
Layback through to Bielmann-good speed; positions not great but improved
Spiral-good speed; position not great but improved
2A-good
Good deathdrop to sit spin
Footwork-very good expression; a tad slow in places
Good final spin
Excellent expression and speed; she really got into the character of the program even more so than at TEB. Fabulous.


TES: 44.00
PCS: 32.28
Total: 76.28 (New World Record!!!)
Rank: 1



Standings Entering LP:
1 Yu-Na KIM KOR 76.28 1
2 Rachael FLATT USA 58.80 2
3 Julia SEBESTYEN HUN 58.54 3
4 Fumie SUGURI JPN 56.04 4
5 Elena GLEBOVA EST 52.28 5
6 Elene GEDEVANISHVILI GEO 52.18 6
7 Joshi HELGESSON SWE 51.32 7
8 Tugba KARADEMIR TUR49.42 8
9 Susanna PÖYKIÖ FIN 46.72 9
10 Alexe GILLES USA 46.56 10
11 Emily HUGHES USA 45.32 11
12 Sarah HECKEN GER 43.86 12


Commentary of men's free to start in 25 minutes.

TEB Preview-Ladies

Ladies




Mao Asada (Japan)

The Olympic season has finally arrived for the 19-year-old Japanese superstar, who will aim to live up to the expectations of a proud nation hoping that the 2008 world champion will dethrone her top rival, Yu-Na Kim, for the 2010 Olympic gold medal. Asada was formerly under the tutelage of Rafael Artunian, who led her to the 2007 world silver medal and two Japanese national championships. However, after Asada's 2007 nationals win, the Japanese Skating Federation pulled her from Artunian and sent her to the Four Continents and World Championships without a permanent coach. Nevertheless, she went on to win both competitions. The JSF later paired Asada with legendary Russian coach Tatiana Tarasova, who has taken Asada away from the more lyrical style of her youth to a much more dramatic presentation, something many fans have voiced their disapproval over. Asada's time with Tarasova has been hot and cold thus far, with high points that include her win (defeating Yu-Na Kim in her come country) at the 2008 Grand Prix Final, and becoming the second lady to break 200 points at the 2009 World Team Trophy. However, Asada was left off the podium in Los Angeles, despite not skating poorly, and received her lowest long program score since 2006 at the recent Japan Open.

Asada's attempts to land two triple axels in her long program are admirable, but the great risk involved often proves to be much more of a detriment than a reward. She is bound to pop, under rotate, or fall on one of them (exceptions being 2005 Japanese Nationals and 2008 Grand Prix Final), and more often than not, the mistake comes on the second attempt. It was also perplexing when, at the Japan Open, Asada missed her inconsistent triple salchow, trying that jump in favor of her consistently secure triple loop. Practice videos of Asada's jumps aired just prior to the Japan Open showed her to be in fine condition, but her jumps at the Japan Open were labored and were vacant of their usual spring. However, her artistry in her "Bells of Moscow" long program showed a marked improvement from last year's long to "Masquerade Waltz." Asada performed poorly at this event last year, which was her first event of the 2008/2009 season, and cannot afford to do the same this season with a sinificantly deeper field competing. However, it is worth noting that Asada's second competition of the season has historically been significantly stronger than her first.




Elene Gedevanishvili (Georgia)

The Georgian firecracker is wildly talented and wildly inconsistent, having finished 10th at this year's worlds, just after failing to qualify for the free skate at the 2009 Europeans. Gedevanishvili has competed at an Olympics once before, in 2006, where she shockingly qualified to the final group for the free skate and ended up placing 10th. Currently training under 1982 world champion Elaine Zayak in New Jersey, Gedevanishvili is a spunky skater with a solid triple lutz and triple toe+triple toe combination. The 19-year-old Tbilisi native has already competed once since last year's worlds, at the 2009 Moran Memorial, where she finished ahead of Ashley Wagner in the free skate, but behind behind her in the short program and overall. Gedevanishvili has a solid combination of athleticism, flexibility, and personality, but will need to gain consistency and refine her posture and transitions between elements if she is to stick around and skate onto the podium at a future World Championships or Olympic Games. Gedevanishvili's performances in Los Angeles appeared to significantly increase her confidence level, and a strong placement in Paris (preferably in the top five) would allow the judges to have more faith in Gedevanishvili's potentially strong but divergent skating.




Alexe Gilles (USA)

Gilles is one of the tallest ladies figure skaters to have ever made it to the competitive ranks domestically and internationally, standing at 5'7''. This added height allows Gilles to have jumps that are nothing short of breathtaking when landed, particularly her triple lutz, but it also impedes her consistency. Gilles competed at the Colorado Championships this summer, where she defeated two-time U.S. silver medalist Rachael Flatt in the short, but fell behind her in the long program and overall. The bronze medalist from last year's Junior Grand Prix Final and 9th place finisher from the 2009 U.S. Championships, Gilles has the opportunity for this to be somewhat of a breakthrough season, but only somewhat, because it's unlikely she will make the Olympic team. She was granted her first senior Grand Prix assignment, being this competition, in the spring and was eventually added to the Skate America roster when Michelle Kwan announced her decision not to return to competitive skating. A solid finish here will be a tall order for Gilles, as she is competing against seven creditable skaters and five especially formidable ladies (Asada, Kim, Kostner, Nakano, and Zhang). Regardless of placement, this competition will be of tremendous service to Gilles's development, and it will give her an idea of how she stacks up with some of the top female figure skaters in the world.




Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)

The pride of South Korea will take to the ice for the first time since her victory at the 2009 World Championships, where she won her first world title by an astounding 16.42 points, breaking the then existing world record by over eight marks. Kim has been one of the few skaters to have avoided summer competitions, and comes to Paris to debut her new short program to themes from "James Bond" and her long program to Gershwin's "Piano Concerto in F." Orser lauded Kim's new programs in an Icenetwork article back in July; however, Kim critiqued them in a more staid manner in a recent interview, commenting "Though I am under the apprehension that both programs of this season are less gorgeous than those of last season, I will prepare them well and do my best as I have done before."

Although Kim is perhaps not as talented a skater technically speaking as Asada, she is able to work the code of points in her favor more so than her top rival. An example of this is that receives nearly unanimous level fours for her non-jump elements, even while some of her spin and spiral postitions don't achieve the prettiest shapes. The code of points also aids her in the fact that she can switch her problematic triple loop with an easier, quality double axel, which doesn't end up costing her much at all. Kim's speed, detailed choreography, and committed expression enabled her to receive the highest program component marks of every phase of every competition she competed in last season. Kim should continue to bank on those high program component marks, but it is unlikely that one will see Kim score jaw-droppingly high artistic marks, like the 68.40 PCS score she received for her long program at 2009 worlds, especially if she is not to skate a clean short program and have a commanding lead after that phase.

One concept Kim must continue to be mindful about to ensure herself success in Vancouver is to train well, but not overtrain and risk serious injury. Kim's back was a huge source of pain for her prior to the 2007 and 2008 World Championships, both competitions of which she was capable of winning, but did not. Kim peaked herself at exactly the right time last season, but it could be difficult to achieve that masterful pacing again, considering all of the pressure from the people of South Korea and Kim's constant drive to push to envelope further (notice how she claimed that she now aims for 215 points instead of just 200 in the article linked earlier in this commentary). Kim is generally strong, albeit unspectacular, at her first event. While this is precisely how she should desire to perform early in the season, such a performance is not always indicative of the culmination of her year, as was the case with her 2007/2008 season.




Kiira Korpi (Finland)

Korpi missed the Grand Prix portion of the season last year due to injury, but recovered in time to defeat Laura Lepisto at the 2009 Finnish Championships to win her first Finnish senior national title. However, because the criteria for selecting the world team was largely based on the results of the 2009 European Championships, Korpi was not chosen to compete in Los Angeles because of her 5th place finish at that event - the lowest placement of the three Finnish women (Korpi, Lepisto, Susanna Poykio) competing there. Korpi has already gotten her feet wet this season, competing at the Nebelhorn Trophy and Finlandia Trophy, where she placed 2nd and 3rd, respectively. It seems likely that Laura Lepisto will secure one of the two berths available for the Finnish women intending to compete at the 2010 Olympic Games, which means that Korpi will need to fend off current European bronze medalist Susanna Poykio for the second spot. This should prove to be an interesting battle, as both skaters are very comparable in their overall consistency and potential. Poykio may have had the upper hand when it came to last year's Europeans, where Korpi (in the video shown above) took a devastating fall into the boards in her long program, but Poykio didn't exactly show the world that she was of the best use to the Finnish team in Los Angeles with 13th place finish, a placement even lower than Carolina Kostner and her epic long program meltdown. Korpi's competitions in the early part of the season are great opportunities for building confidence, but shouldn't have much impact on whether she is named to the Olympic team or not. Peaking as close to the Olympics as possible will be of the utmost importance for Korpi to return to a second Olympic Games, and to improve on her 16th place finish from 2006.




Carolina Kostner (Italy)

As dream of a city Los Angeles was for Yu-Na Kim, it was a living nightmare for Carolina Kostner. Entering the long program in 5th place, Kostner appeared rattled by Kim's thunderous ovation, as the 22-year-old Italian went on to skate her worst long program in memory, one which contained zero clean triple jumps. The performance dropped Kostner to 12th, understandably prompting her to make a coaching change from Michael Huth to Frank Carroll, who is currently coaching Evan Lysacek and Mirai Nagasu also. Kostner could be the ultimate Olympic dark horse if she is somehow able to gain consistency, confidence, and competitive fire by Vancouver.

Kostner skates with blinding speed, has creditable height on her triples, and is armed with a strong sense of musicality, which, coupled with strong poltical favor from Italian ISU head Ottavio Cinquanta, make it foolish for one to count her out of the medal picture in Vancouver. A recent training video from an Italian television network shows Kostner to have made several changes to her skating in the short time she has had with Frank Carroll, including having more fluid entrances to her flip and loop, and adding the triple toe as a solo jump. She did not show a triple flip+triple toe combination, and given her recent troubles with that combination (having only one out 10 successful triple+triple combination attempts last season), Kostner may be going back to an easier triple flip+double toe combination and putting the triple toe in place of her double axel solo jump in the long program.

Kostner has been wise to let both of her programs be of a more classical genre this season, as classical programs, such as her 2007 Canon short program, aptly suit her artistry. Kostner will debut her short program to Tchaikovsky's "Chopin Nocturne and Violin Concerto" and her long program to Bach's "Air on a G String" and Vivaldi's "Cello Concerto" in Paris. If recent history is any indication, Kostner will not be in strong form here, as her opening performances during several previous seasons have been of particular sloppiness. Little is known of whether Kostner will be able to come back from her Los Angeles catastrophe and skate of quality worthy of making the Olympic podium, but one will be able to start finding out after this weekend. Kostner has many opportunities in her favor to make the Olympic podium; all she has to do is trust herself and take them.




Yukari Nakano (Japan)

Nakano is generally strong early in the season, but was not so at the recent Japan Open, scoring below 100 points with a technically and choreographically fireless long program to "The Firebird." Her debut of her new long program was of particular disappointment to many of Nakano's fans, as she has enhanced her style over the past several seasons, and showed an especially mature presentation in her long program to the ballet score of "Giselle" last season. Nakano has had an impressive career, but one that has had many unerasable disappointments, which include her falling short of an Olympic team that she probably should have been on in 2006 (instead of Miki Ando who finished 15th in Turino), and missing a world championship medal in 2008 in a controversial result. Most recently, Nakano led the field after the short program at the Japanese nationals in December 2008, but ended up skating one of her weakest long programs in memory, dropping to 5th place and being left off of the world championship team.

Nakano has several lovely aspects to her skating, all of which are marred by her greatest trademark and weakness, her leg wrap. Skaters typically cross their legs tightly in the air for a jump, but for whatever peculiar reason, Nakano developed a technique where her left leg crosses over her right thigh, thus creating a distracting line and providing an impediment to the rotation speed of her jumps. She is immune from using that technique on her salchow jump and also on her triple axel, a jump she has not landed cleanly in well over a year.

As far as placements are concerned for this competition, it is worth noting that Nakano improved very quickly at the beginning of last season, when she performed poorly at a minor competition in Japan before going on to skate strongly and place second at Skate America. Nakano was also strong at her opening Grand Prix event in 2007, Skate Canada, and thus could be in for a good competition here despite her poor outing in Japan just weeks ago.




Caroline Zhang (USA)

Zhang will be returning to competition after a raucous off-season, which included two coaching changes (one to Charlene Wong and one back to her original coach, Mingzhu Li), a torn meniscus, and a third place finish (behind Rachael Flatt and Mirai Nagasu) at the Golden West competition last month. Zhang had a bittersweet 2008/2009 season, missing the world championship team while going on to prove in nearly every way possible, whether it be Alissa Czisny's short program meltdown in Los Angeles, Zhang's fourth place finish against a deep field at the Four Continents Championships, or Zhang attaining the top technical score in her free skate at the World Team Trophy, that she deserved to compete in Los Angeles.

Zhang has certain aspects to her skating that are absolutely spellbinding, and other aspects that earn her a plethora of scornful remarks from observers. Zhang can bend her body limitlessly, but skates slower than Carolina Kostner does in slow motion and has an extremely awkward technique on her flip and lutzes, where she twists her hips and kicks her leg up to the ceiling, a technique dubbed the "mule kick" by critics. The main issue with Zhang is that she has been said to have an extremely difficult time breaking out of her confort zone, which is certainly an evident reality when considering the lack of improvement in many aspects of her skating over the past few seasons in terms of speed, transitions, the mule kick, and presentation. Zhang is notorious for flutzing, but was credited with a clean lutz at the Golden West competition. However, she received an "!" call for her flip at that competition, which was also a call she received at this year's U.S. nationals.

Zhang was far from her optimum at her first competition last season, Skate Canada, which seemed to play a factor in how she was scored at nationals relative to Alissa Czisny, who outscored Zhang in the long program despite only landing three triples to Zhang's six. Zhang seems to be marked more favorably internationally than she is domestically, an oddity which she would like to reverse for the time being to earn an Olympic berth. As nationals results are frequently based off of Grand Prix results when it comes to someone being favored on the second mark, two quality performances are necessary for Zhang in Paris.

Predicted Standings-Ladies
Gold: Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
Silver: Mao Asada (Japan)
Bronze: Yukari Nakano (Japan)
4th: Carolina Kostner (Italy)
5th: Caroline Zhang (USA)
6th: Elene Gedevanishvili (Georgia)


That is all.

2009 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-Ladies Preview Part 1

Above: The Quicken Loans Arena, site of the 2009 U.S. Figure Skating Championships. The same arena hosted the 2000 Nationals as well.


When the ladies take the ice for their short program at the 2009 U.S. Figure Skating Championships in Cleveland, Ohio, there will be no Michelle Kwan. There will also be no Sasha Cohen. The only skater in the field that has ever won a senior world medal of any color is 2006 World Champion Kimmie Meissner, who has yet to finish higher than eighth this season. So one can just conclude that the U.S. ladies are doomed, there will be no U.S. flags being raised at the medal ceremonies of the upcoming World Championships and next year's Olympic Games, and thus there is absolutely no reasoning behind watching the ladies event at this year's Nationals, right?

Wrong; quite the opposite actually. The ladies field that will take to the ice for their short program on January 22nd, 2009, will be one of the deepest that a U.S. national championship has ever hosted. While there may not be a clear star, each and every one of the U.S. ladies has their own story, background, and artistry, and the ladies that take to the ice in Cleveland have a burning desire to be nominated to the world championship team, which only has two spots this year. With there being no finalists at the Grand Prix this season, and considering that all of the major contenders are age-eligible to go to Worlds, everyone will (more or less) enter Nationals with a clean slate, and will have to rise above the pressure of this do-or-die competition to be rewarded for their hard work.

I will feature 14 skaters competing at Nationals and analyze their potential placement at Nationals, their chances for the world team, junior world team, four continents team, and potential for Grand Prix assignments next year.

Becky Bereswill
Alissa Czisny
Rachael Flatt
Joelle Forte
Alexe Gilles
Katrina Hacker
Emily Hughes

Beatrisa Liang
Angela Maxwell
Kimmie Meissner
Kristine Musademba
Mirai Nagasu
Ashley Wagner
Caroline Zhang

Red indicates commentary of skater is featured in part 1 of post
Blue indicates skater commentary of skater is featured in part 2 of post



Becky Bereswill

Noteworthy Results: 2008 Junior Grand Prix Final Champion, 2008 JGP Madrid-2nd place, 2008 JGP Courchevel-2nd place, 2008 U.S. Nationals-10th place

Pros: The recent winner of the Junior Grand Prix Final, Bereswill is a very polished skater with good extension in her spins and spirals. Bereswill has four different triple jumps (lutz, flip, loop, toe) in her arsenal and doesn't usually receive wrong-edge deductions for either her flip or lutz. At the Junior Grand Prix Final Bereswill did not get downgraded on any of her jumps and won the competition despite singling her loop in the long and doing the same with her lutz in the short.

Cons: Bereswill has relatively poor posture and very little height and distance on her jumps. An absence of a triple salchow will not help Bereswill technically, nor will her lower PCS marks help her out artistically(Becky received only a 46.16 in the long program at Junior Grand Prix Final). Bereswill has very little experience competing at the senior level; the only time she has done so was at the 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Championships where she finished a respectable 10th.

Outlook: While Bereswill is hardly in contention for making the world team, her recent victory at the Junior Grand Prix Final should give her an added boost of confidence and possibly more attention from the judges, as she beat some other up-and-coming U.S. skaters in South Korea including Alexe Gilles, Angela Maxwell, and Kristine Musademba. A good finish here could prompt her to compete in a grand prix assignment next season, which could pave the way for success beyond 2010 (as she is unlikely to be contending for an Olympic berth) if she chooses to stick around.


Alissa Czisny

Noteworthy Results: 2008 Cup of Russia-4th, 2008 Skate Canada-3rd, 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-9th, 2007 World Championships-15th, 2007 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-3rd, 2005 Grand Prix Final-6th, 2005 Skate Canada Champion

Pros: Arguably the most polished ladies skater that the U.S. currently has, the 21-year-old Czisny is now a veteran of the national championship, competing on the senior level for the 7th consecutive year. Known for her expression, extension, and immaculate spinning technique, Czisny won the free skate at the 2007 Nationals and is capable of scoring highly if she skates cleanly. Czisny has had a good season thus far, winning bronze at Skate Canada, placing 4th at Cup of Russia, and winning the Nebelhorn Trophy over Laura Lepisto and Akiko Suzuki.

Cons: Czisny is the definition of inconsistency; even her own inconsistency is inconsistent. Although she skated very well at Skate Canada, Alissa once again succumbed to nerves at Cup of Russia, where she fell a total of three times throughout the competition. A similar scenario occurred when Alissa had the skate of her life at the 2007 Nationals, and went on to regress at Four Continents and completely bomb at Worlds. Czisny has not skated a clean short program in eternity and her clean free skates come infrequently. Czisny is plagued by downgrades as well, especially on her lutz and her flip. Essentially, every single one of Czisny's problems lie in her jumps.

Outlook: Czisny is a great example of a "what if" skater. What if she were to pull it all together and skate cleanly; what if she were to stop being a tentative headcase and start becoming a determined, confident competitor. Czisny's average PCS marks in the long programs from both of her Grand Prixs (52.24) is the 2nd highest average PCS produced this season from any of the senior U.S. ladies, but those PCS marks aren't going to get Alissa anywhere if her triple jumps aren't ready to be landed under pressure. An advantage Czisny has over some of her competitors is that she realistically doesn't need others mistakes to get her on the podium. She has all of the ingredients for big marks, so Czisny getting on the world team (she would likely do so with a top 2 finish) is her opportunity to take. USFSA could be put in an undesirable situation if Czisny wins the national title (thus guaranteeing her spot to L.A., unlike finishing 2nd) and then subsequently goes to Worlds with the newfound pressure of being national champion and bombs. Such a scenario would only allow two U.S. skaters to compete in next year's Olympics.


Rachael Flatt

Noteworthy Results: 2008 Cup of Russia-2nd, 2008 Skate America-4th, 2008 Junior World Champion, 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-2nd, 2007 Junior Grand Prix Final-2nd, 2007 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-5th

Pros: Minus the axel, Flatt has a full arsenal of triple jumps, including triple-triple combinations that are planned for both her short and long. Flatt's consistency is undoubtedly her most prized weapon, evidenced by the fact that she did not fall or pop a jump (with the exception of a single axel during the free program at Skate America) throughout any of her 2008 competition skates. Flatt usually rotates her triple jumps and is commended for her good musicality and difficult jumping passes after the half-way point of the program that earn additional bonus marks.

Cons: Flatt's "flat" skating is evident by the PCS marks she has received this season, an example being that she only received a 49.28 (avg: 6.16) at Cup of Russia, where she skated a clean program with six triple jumps. In comparison, Carolina Kostner received a higher free skate mark at that competition despite having more flaws, which means that Rachael has no room for error to keep up with the big girls. Flatt's hunched posture, lack of speed, and unremarkable spinning ability leave her with no choice but to land her triple jumps to receive decent marks. Rachael's triple flip+triple loop, an element she is debuting this season, has only been attempted once thus far, which resulted in the back end of the combination getting downgraded. It is also worth noting that Flatt has been receiving "!"s for her lutzes, indicating a slight change of edge prior to the takeoff of the jump.

Outlook: While Flatt's component scores may not be desirable, her consistency alone is worthy of a ticket to her first World Championships. Some felt Rachael should have won the title last year, which may have proved to be a blessing in disguise as she didn't have as much pressure on her when becoming a senior. But make no mistake, Flatt is the favorite to win her first national title in Cleveland, and maybe the only skater with a track record that will allow her to finish outside the top two and still make the world team. If Flatt maintains her consistency just likes she maintains her 4.0 GPA in school, she should be on to bigger and better things when these Nationals have concluded.


Joelle Forte

Noteworthy Results: 2008 Eastern Sectionals Champion, 2008 North Atlantic Regionals Champion

Pros: Joelle is a very strong skater technically, capable of consistently landing six triple jumps in her long program. Forte's forte is her great jumping technique, which is obvious when looking at her protocols from both the North Atlantic Regionals and Eastern Sectionals this year, where she didn't get a single downgrade or wrong-edge deduction. Forte consistently gets level 3s and 4s for her spins, footwork, and spiral sequences. Forte received the two highest total scores throughout the entire regional/sectional process this season for the ladies, a 150.92 at Eastern Sectionals and a 147.48 at North Atlantic Regionals.

Cons: Forte lags behind the other U.S. ladies significantly when it comes to artistry, flexibility, musicality, speed, and transitions. Her PCS marks reflect that, scoring 39.80 (avg: 4.975) at Eastern Sectionals this year with a clean program (her technical marks were a whooping 19.51 points higher than her artistic marks at that particular competition). Joelle has extremely little experience out on the big stage, with her only trip to nationals in her entire career taking place in 2000 when she was at the novice level. Even though jumps are Forte's strength, she doesn't have a triple flip in her repertoire and repeats one of the easier jumps, a triple salchow, in her long program.

Outlook: Forte's skating is ruled by its jumps, with all of the other components taking a back seat. Don't expect Joelle's PCS marks to be at all competitive at Nationals, even if she is to skate a clean program. Forte would likely be thrilled with a top 10 finish, and can do so if she maintains her excellent consistency. A good finish here could propel her for bigger and better things if she chooses to remain on the scene beyond 2010, as her prospects for a world team in 2009 and Olympic team in 2010 are bleak.


Alexe Gilles

Noteworthy Results: 2008 Junior Grand Prix Final-3rd, 2008 JGP Cape Town Champion, 2008 JGP Mexico City-2nd, 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Championships Champion (junior)

Pros: Winner of the U.S. National title on the junior level last year and the bronze medal at the recent Junior Grand Prix Final, Alexe Gilles is a relative newcomer with elegance and a complete package of triple jumps minus the axel. Her current seasons best for her short program (54.24) is higher than that of Alissa Czisny or Caroline Zhang, and the program component marks she received for her short at Junior Grand Prix Final were the highest among all of the junior ladies competing. Gilles also avoids wrong-edge deductions on her flip and lutz, which tend to plague the technical marks of other world-class skaters.

Cons: Gilles' youth and inexperience showed at the Junior Grand Prix Final, where Gilles singled her lutz in her long program and went on to under rotate her triple salchow. Both errors were especially costly because they were in combinations after the halfway point, which have the potential to be big point getters. Gilles has never competed as a senior before and her triple toe+triple toe combination has been an inconsistent one for her, having only completed it in two out of six skates thus far this season. Her component marks have been hovering around the mid-40s for the long, which are unlikely to be competitive in Cleveland, and received some level 1s and 2s on her non-jump elements at JGPF.

Outlook: Gilles has the content to do well in Cleveland, with a possible triple toe+triple toe (worth 8.0 points) in both programs, and a triple lutz+double toe(worth 8.03) and triple salchow+double toe+double loop(also worth 8.03) after the half-way point in the long. Though a podium finish seems unlikely, a top 10 finish is not at all a far-fetched placement for Gilles to end up, and even a top five finish is possible. A good performance here could get Gilles a coveted Grand Prix spot next year, which could make her an outside threat to go to Vancouver and/or become a future international contender from then on.


Katrina Hacker

Noteworthy Results: 2008 NHK Trophy-6th, 2008 Cup of China-8th, 2008 Four Continents Championships-6th, 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-6th

Pros: Hacker burst out onto the scene last season when she surprised many by making the final group for the free skate at Nationals, where she finished 6th. Passed over by the selection committee to not go to Worlds instead of Kimmie Meissner, despite beating her at Nationals, Hacker went on to have the highest American finish at the Four Continents Championships, 6th, which would have also been the highest American finish at Worlds (taking her 4CCs score, she would have finished just ahead of Meissner who placed 7th). Hacker is noted for her elegant artistry, excellent flexibility, and musicality. Her unique short program to the music of "On Golden Pond" has been a fan-favorite this season and Katrina is generally a consistent skater.

Cons: During the Grand Prix series, Hacker had dropped her triple lutz from her jumping repertoire, and does not do a triple flip either. Her triple loop has also been inconsistent, falling on it during the free skate at Cup of China, and nearly falling on it during the free at NHK Trophy. She has had a total of six jumps downgraded thus far this season, including two double jumps. Her PCS marks have been lagging behind as well, averaging only 21.9 in the short and 44.38 in the long during her two Grand Prixs this season.

Outlook: A Golden Skate interview with Katrina back in June, "Hacker Can Hack It," mentioned she was practicing triple flips, triple toe+triple toe combinations, and even triple salchow+triple loops. However, it appears as though a back injury over the summer (bulging disk) has stalled those plans, as well as her growth spurt prior to the start of this season. There may not be much longer to put those elements on hold, however, because Katrina has stated she wishes to enroll at Princeton in the fall and has already deferred enrollment to compete this season. Unless if she were to pull an Emily Hughes and combine school and skating, and considering that Hacker's only realistic shot for a world/Olympic team came last season, this could indeed be Katrina's last competition. As for potential placements in this meet, a top 10 finish is definitely within reach, although a placement in the top 5 will be a tall order.


Emily Hughes

Noteworthy Results: 2008 Trophee Eric Bombard-9th, 2007 Skate Canada-4th, 2007 Skate America-4th, 2007 World Championships-9th, 2007 Four Continents Championships-2nd, 2007 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-2nd, 2006 World Championships-8th, 2006 Olympics-7th, 2006 U.S. Figure Skating Championships-3rd

Pros: Coming off of a hip injury, Emily has all of her jumps back minus the triple loop which she hasn't competed since the Olympics. Hughes is known for good height on her triples, excellent flexibility, and good spins. Hughes doesn't have any wrong-edge deductions for either her flip or lutz, and is one of the most experienced ladies skaters currently competing in the United States. Having not had a good season thus far, there will be little pressure for Hughes to do well in Cleveland.

Cons: From the start of the season, it looks like the Emily Hughes that has returned to competitive skating is an entirely different skater than the Emily Hughes that took silver at Nationals and Four Continents, placed top 10 at Worlds twice, and finished 7th at the Olympics after being called in at the last minute. After placing only third at Regionals, many felt that Hughes was clearly not in shape to represent the U.S. at Trophee Eric Bombard, and was only doing so to avoid going to sectionals and not finishing high enough to advance to Nationals. Hughes proved her doubters right, as she fell four times in Paris during her first international meet in over a year and received five downgrades throughout the course of the competition. Even the Emily Hughes from 2006/2007 would still be unlikely to be contending for a world team berth this year, without any triple+triple combination or a triple loop. Hughes' personal best free skate score, 111.26, is a little over four points lower than the TOTAL score Hughes received in Paris.

Outlook: Rachael Ray proclaimed on her show that Emily Hughes had to win two gold medals in Vancouver to one-up her sister. While such a scenario is less likely than North Korea becoming a democracy, Emily is going to be entering her 4th nationals on the senior level as quite the wild card because no one knows how much she will have improved by the time January 22nd rolls around. Hughes' chances for even a top 10 finish appear to be pretty invisible, and if Hughes isn't in the top 10 after the short she won't even be broadcast by NBC in the long. Emily is currently #70 on the seasons best list, and will have no chance to get a GP invite next season if she drops out of the top 75 unless if USFSA were to appoint her to Skate America, which surely won't happen. With a very poor season thus far that makes even Kimmie Meissner's season look decent, some are speculating that this could be Hughes' swan song. For those who think otherwise, Hughes does deserve to compete at Nationals, because she has represented the U.S. very well over the last few years in competition and she is not taking another skater's spot to go to Nationals. Facing several youngsters, it will be interesting to see if Hughes can pull herself together to skate decently and perhaps finish in the top 10. Unlikely, yes, but such a case should not be impossible.

Part 2 to come shortly. That is all.