Friday, October 16, 2009
The Queen Reigns
Yu-Na debuted her lovely, entertaining James Bond short program today at the 2009 Trophee Eric Bompard, a competition which she now leads by over 16 points. The program is an excellent vehicle for her to develop throughout the season, and she appears to be extremely fit. My only criticism is in the step sequence; it starts off with all guns blazing, but the middle of it (2:50-2:54) slows down and loses the intensity that was so strong initially. However, I'm confident that this program will be even better in her later events. When comparing her "Dance Macabre" short program from Skate America to Worlds last year, one can see that every movement Kim does is stronger and richer at the latter event.
ETA: Also note that there are some new polls toward below my blog archive on the right side of the page.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
TEB Preview-Ladies
Ladies
Mao Asada (Japan)
The Olympic season has finally arrived for the 19-year-old Japanese superstar, who will aim to live up to the expectations of a proud nation hoping that the 2008 world champion will dethrone her top rival, Yu-Na Kim, for the 2010 Olympic gold medal. Asada was formerly under the tutelage of Rafael Artunian, who led her to the 2007 world silver medal and two Japanese national championships. However, after Asada's 2007 nationals win, the Japanese Skating Federation pulled her from Artunian and sent her to the Four Continents and World Championships without a permanent coach. Nevertheless, she went on to win both competitions. The JSF later paired Asada with legendary Russian coach Tatiana Tarasova, who has taken Asada away from the more lyrical style of her youth to a much more dramatic presentation, something many fans have voiced their disapproval over. Asada's time with Tarasova has been hot and cold thus far, with high points that include her win (defeating Yu-Na Kim in her come country) at the 2008 Grand Prix Final, and becoming the second lady to break 200 points at the 2009 World Team Trophy. However, Asada was left off the podium in Los Angeles, despite not skating poorly, and received her lowest long program score since 2006 at the recent Japan Open.
Asada's attempts to land two triple axels in her long program are admirable, but the great risk involved often proves to be much more of a detriment than a reward. She is bound to pop, under rotate, or fall on one of them (exceptions being 2005 Japanese Nationals and 2008 Grand Prix Final), and more often than not, the mistake comes on the second attempt. It was also perplexing when, at the Japan Open, Asada missed her inconsistent triple salchow, trying that jump in favor of her consistently secure triple loop. Practice videos of Asada's jumps aired just prior to the Japan Open showed her to be in fine condition, but her jumps at the Japan Open were labored and were vacant of their usual spring. However, her artistry in her "Bells of Moscow" long program showed a marked improvement from last year's long to "Masquerade Waltz." Asada performed poorly at this event last year, which was her first event of the 2008/2009 season, and cannot afford to do the same this season with a sinificantly deeper field competing. However, it is worth noting that Asada's second competition of the season has historically been significantly stronger than her first.
Elene Gedevanishvili (Georgia)
The Georgian firecracker is wildly talented and wildly inconsistent, having finished 10th at this year's worlds, just after failing to qualify for the free skate at the 2009 Europeans. Gedevanishvili has competed at an Olympics once before, in 2006, where she shockingly qualified to the final group for the free skate and ended up placing 10th. Currently training under 1982 world champion Elaine Zayak in New Jersey, Gedevanishvili is a spunky skater with a solid triple lutz and triple toe+triple toe combination. The 19-year-old Tbilisi native has already competed once since last year's worlds, at the 2009 Moran Memorial, where she finished ahead of Ashley Wagner in the free skate, but behind behind her in the short program and overall. Gedevanishvili has a solid combination of athleticism, flexibility, and personality, but will need to gain consistency and refine her posture and transitions between elements if she is to stick around and skate onto the podium at a future World Championships or Olympic Games. Gedevanishvili's performances in Los Angeles appeared to significantly increase her confidence level, and a strong placement in Paris (preferably in the top five) would allow the judges to have more faith in Gedevanishvili's potentially strong but divergent skating.
Alexe Gilles (USA)
Gilles is one of the tallest ladies figure skaters to have ever made it to the competitive ranks domestically and internationally, standing at 5'7''. This added height allows Gilles to have jumps that are nothing short of breathtaking when landed, particularly her triple lutz, but it also impedes her consistency. Gilles competed at the Colorado Championships this summer, where she defeated two-time U.S. silver medalist Rachael Flatt in the short, but fell behind her in the long program and overall. The bronze medalist from last year's Junior Grand Prix Final and 9th place finisher from the 2009 U.S. Championships, Gilles has the opportunity for this to be somewhat of a breakthrough season, but only somewhat, because it's unlikely she will make the Olympic team. She was granted her first senior Grand Prix assignment, being this competition, in the spring and was eventually added to the Skate America roster when Michelle Kwan announced her decision not to return to competitive skating. A solid finish here will be a tall order for Gilles, as she is competing against seven creditable skaters and five especially formidable ladies (Asada, Kim, Kostner, Nakano, and Zhang). Regardless of placement, this competition will be of tremendous service to Gilles's development, and it will give her an idea of how she stacks up with some of the top female figure skaters in the world.
Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
The pride of South Korea will take to the ice for the first time since her victory at the 2009 World Championships, where she won her first world title by an astounding 16.42 points, breaking the then existing world record by over eight marks. Kim has been one of the few skaters to have avoided summer competitions, and comes to Paris to debut her new short program to themes from "James Bond" and her long program to Gershwin's "Piano Concerto in F." Orser lauded Kim's new programs in an Icenetwork article back in July; however, Kim critiqued them in a more staid manner in a recent interview, commenting "Though I am under the apprehension that both programs of this season are less gorgeous than those of last season, I will prepare them well and do my best as I have done before."
Although Kim is perhaps not as talented a skater technically speaking as Asada, she is able to work the code of points in her favor more so than her top rival. An example of this is that receives nearly unanimous level fours for her non-jump elements, even while some of her spin and spiral postitions don't achieve the prettiest shapes. The code of points also aids her in the fact that she can switch her problematic triple loop with an easier, quality double axel, which doesn't end up costing her much at all. Kim's speed, detailed choreography, and committed expression enabled her to receive the highest program component marks of every phase of every competition she competed in last season. Kim should continue to bank on those high program component marks, but it is unlikely that one will see Kim score jaw-droppingly high artistic marks, like the 68.40 PCS score she received for her long program at 2009 worlds, especially if she is not to skate a clean short program and have a commanding lead after that phase.
One concept Kim must continue to be mindful about to ensure herself success in Vancouver is to train well, but not overtrain and risk serious injury. Kim's back was a huge source of pain for her prior to the 2007 and 2008 World Championships, both competitions of which she was capable of winning, but did not. Kim peaked herself at exactly the right time last season, but it could be difficult to achieve that masterful pacing again, considering all of the pressure from the people of South Korea and Kim's constant drive to push to envelope further (notice how she claimed that she now aims for 215 points instead of just 200 in the article linked earlier in this commentary). Kim is generally strong, albeit unspectacular, at her first event. While this is precisely how she should desire to perform early in the season, such a performance is not always indicative of the culmination of her year, as was the case with her 2007/2008 season.
Kiira Korpi (Finland)
Korpi missed the Grand Prix portion of the season last year due to injury, but recovered in time to defeat Laura Lepisto at the 2009 Finnish Championships to win her first Finnish senior national title. However, because the criteria for selecting the world team was largely based on the results of the 2009 European Championships, Korpi was not chosen to compete in Los Angeles because of her 5th place finish at that event - the lowest placement of the three Finnish women (Korpi, Lepisto, Susanna Poykio) competing there. Korpi has already gotten her feet wet this season, competing at the Nebelhorn Trophy and Finlandia Trophy, where she placed 2nd and 3rd, respectively. It seems likely that Laura Lepisto will secure one of the two berths available for the Finnish women intending to compete at the 2010 Olympic Games, which means that Korpi will need to fend off current European bronze medalist Susanna Poykio for the second spot. This should prove to be an interesting battle, as both skaters are very comparable in their overall consistency and potential. Poykio may have had the upper hand when it came to last year's Europeans, where Korpi (in the video shown above) took a devastating fall into the boards in her long program, but Poykio didn't exactly show the world that she was of the best use to the Finnish team in Los Angeles with 13th place finish, a placement even lower than Carolina Kostner and her epic long program meltdown. Korpi's competitions in the early part of the season are great opportunities for building confidence, but shouldn't have much impact on whether she is named to the Olympic team or not. Peaking as close to the Olympics as possible will be of the utmost importance for Korpi to return to a second Olympic Games, and to improve on her 16th place finish from 2006.
Carolina Kostner (Italy)
As dream of a city Los Angeles was for Yu-Na Kim, it was a living nightmare for Carolina Kostner. Entering the long program in 5th place, Kostner appeared rattled by Kim's thunderous ovation, as the 22-year-old Italian went on to skate her worst long program in memory, one which contained zero clean triple jumps. The performance dropped Kostner to 12th, understandably prompting her to make a coaching change from Michael Huth to Frank Carroll, who is currently coaching Evan Lysacek and Mirai Nagasu also. Kostner could be the ultimate Olympic dark horse if she is somehow able to gain consistency, confidence, and competitive fire by Vancouver.
Kostner skates with blinding speed, has creditable height on her triples, and is armed with a strong sense of musicality, which, coupled with strong poltical favor from Italian ISU head Ottavio Cinquanta, make it foolish for one to count her out of the medal picture in Vancouver. A recent training video from an Italian television network shows Kostner to have made several changes to her skating in the short time she has had with Frank Carroll, including having more fluid entrances to her flip and loop, and adding the triple toe as a solo jump. She did not show a triple flip+triple toe combination, and given her recent troubles with that combination (having only one out 10 successful triple+triple combination attempts last season), Kostner may be going back to an easier triple flip+double toe combination and putting the triple toe in place of her double axel solo jump in the long program.
Kostner has been wise to let both of her programs be of a more classical genre this season, as classical programs, such as her 2007 Canon short program, aptly suit her artistry. Kostner will debut her short program to Tchaikovsky's "Chopin Nocturne and Violin Concerto" and her long program to Bach's "Air on a G String" and Vivaldi's "Cello Concerto" in Paris. If recent history is any indication, Kostner will not be in strong form here, as her opening performances during several previous seasons have been of particular sloppiness. Little is known of whether Kostner will be able to come back from her Los Angeles catastrophe and skate of quality worthy of making the Olympic podium, but one will be able to start finding out after this weekend. Kostner has many opportunities in her favor to make the Olympic podium; all she has to do is trust herself and take them.
Yukari Nakano (Japan)
Nakano is generally strong early in the season, but was not so at the recent Japan Open, scoring below 100 points with a technically and choreographically fireless long program to "The Firebird." Her debut of her new long program was of particular disappointment to many of Nakano's fans, as she has enhanced her style over the past several seasons, and showed an especially mature presentation in her long program to the ballet score of "Giselle" last season. Nakano has had an impressive career, but one that has had many unerasable disappointments, which include her falling short of an Olympic team that she probably should have been on in 2006 (instead of Miki Ando who finished 15th in Turino), and missing a world championship medal in 2008 in a controversial result. Most recently, Nakano led the field after the short program at the Japanese nationals in December 2008, but ended up skating one of her weakest long programs in memory, dropping to 5th place and being left off of the world championship team.
Nakano has several lovely aspects to her skating, all of which are marred by her greatest trademark and weakness, her leg wrap. Skaters typically cross their legs tightly in the air for a jump, but for whatever peculiar reason, Nakano developed a technique where her left leg crosses over her right thigh, thus creating a distracting line and providing an impediment to the rotation speed of her jumps. She is immune from using that technique on her salchow jump and also on her triple axel, a jump she has not landed cleanly in well over a year.
As far as placements are concerned for this competition, it is worth noting that Nakano improved very quickly at the beginning of last season, when she performed poorly at a minor competition in Japan before going on to skate strongly and place second at Skate America. Nakano was also strong at her opening Grand Prix event in 2007, Skate Canada, and thus could be in for a good competition here despite her poor outing in Japan just weeks ago.
Caroline Zhang (USA)
Zhang will be returning to competition after a raucous off-season, which included two coaching changes (one to Charlene Wong and one back to her original coach, Mingzhu Li), a torn meniscus, and a third place finish (behind Rachael Flatt and Mirai Nagasu) at the Golden West competition last month. Zhang had a bittersweet 2008/2009 season, missing the world championship team while going on to prove in nearly every way possible, whether it be Alissa Czisny's short program meltdown in Los Angeles, Zhang's fourth place finish against a deep field at the Four Continents Championships, or Zhang attaining the top technical score in her free skate at the World Team Trophy, that she deserved to compete in Los Angeles.
Zhang has certain aspects to her skating that are absolutely spellbinding, and other aspects that earn her a plethora of scornful remarks from observers. Zhang can bend her body limitlessly, but skates slower than Carolina Kostner does in slow motion and has an extremely awkward technique on her flip and lutzes, where she twists her hips and kicks her leg up to the ceiling, a technique dubbed the "mule kick" by critics. The main issue with Zhang is that she has been said to have an extremely difficult time breaking out of her confort zone, which is certainly an evident reality when considering the lack of improvement in many aspects of her skating over the past few seasons in terms of speed, transitions, the mule kick, and presentation. Zhang is notorious for flutzing, but was credited with a clean lutz at the Golden West competition. However, she received an "!" call for her flip at that competition, which was also a call she received at this year's U.S. nationals.
Zhang was far from her optimum at her first competition last season, Skate Canada, which seemed to play a factor in how she was scored at nationals relative to Alissa Czisny, who outscored Zhang in the long program despite only landing three triples to Zhang's six. Zhang seems to be marked more favorably internationally than she is domestically, an oddity which she would like to reverse for the time being to earn an Olympic berth. As nationals results are frequently based off of Grand Prix results when it comes to someone being favored on the second mark, two quality performances are necessary for Zhang in Paris.
Predicted Standings-Ladies
Gold: Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
Silver: Mao Asada (Japan)
Bronze: Yukari Nakano (Japan)
4th: Carolina Kostner (Italy)
5th: Caroline Zhang (USA)
6th: Elene Gedevanishvili (Georgia)
That is all.
Mao Asada (Japan)
The Olympic season has finally arrived for the 19-year-old Japanese superstar, who will aim to live up to the expectations of a proud nation hoping that the 2008 world champion will dethrone her top rival, Yu-Na Kim, for the 2010 Olympic gold medal. Asada was formerly under the tutelage of Rafael Artunian, who led her to the 2007 world silver medal and two Japanese national championships. However, after Asada's 2007 nationals win, the Japanese Skating Federation pulled her from Artunian and sent her to the Four Continents and World Championships without a permanent coach. Nevertheless, she went on to win both competitions. The JSF later paired Asada with legendary Russian coach Tatiana Tarasova, who has taken Asada away from the more lyrical style of her youth to a much more dramatic presentation, something many fans have voiced their disapproval over. Asada's time with Tarasova has been hot and cold thus far, with high points that include her win (defeating Yu-Na Kim in her come country) at the 2008 Grand Prix Final, and becoming the second lady to break 200 points at the 2009 World Team Trophy. However, Asada was left off the podium in Los Angeles, despite not skating poorly, and received her lowest long program score since 2006 at the recent Japan Open.
Asada's attempts to land two triple axels in her long program are admirable, but the great risk involved often proves to be much more of a detriment than a reward. She is bound to pop, under rotate, or fall on one of them (exceptions being 2005 Japanese Nationals and 2008 Grand Prix Final), and more often than not, the mistake comes on the second attempt. It was also perplexing when, at the Japan Open, Asada missed her inconsistent triple salchow, trying that jump in favor of her consistently secure triple loop. Practice videos of Asada's jumps aired just prior to the Japan Open showed her to be in fine condition, but her jumps at the Japan Open were labored and were vacant of their usual spring. However, her artistry in her "Bells of Moscow" long program showed a marked improvement from last year's long to "Masquerade Waltz." Asada performed poorly at this event last year, which was her first event of the 2008/2009 season, and cannot afford to do the same this season with a sinificantly deeper field competing. However, it is worth noting that Asada's second competition of the season has historically been significantly stronger than her first.
Elene Gedevanishvili (Georgia)
The Georgian firecracker is wildly talented and wildly inconsistent, having finished 10th at this year's worlds, just after failing to qualify for the free skate at the 2009 Europeans. Gedevanishvili has competed at an Olympics once before, in 2006, where she shockingly qualified to the final group for the free skate and ended up placing 10th. Currently training under 1982 world champion Elaine Zayak in New Jersey, Gedevanishvili is a spunky skater with a solid triple lutz and triple toe+triple toe combination. The 19-year-old Tbilisi native has already competed once since last year's worlds, at the 2009 Moran Memorial, where she finished ahead of Ashley Wagner in the free skate, but behind behind her in the short program and overall. Gedevanishvili has a solid combination of athleticism, flexibility, and personality, but will need to gain consistency and refine her posture and transitions between elements if she is to stick around and skate onto the podium at a future World Championships or Olympic Games. Gedevanishvili's performances in Los Angeles appeared to significantly increase her confidence level, and a strong placement in Paris (preferably in the top five) would allow the judges to have more faith in Gedevanishvili's potentially strong but divergent skating.
Alexe Gilles (USA)
Gilles is one of the tallest ladies figure skaters to have ever made it to the competitive ranks domestically and internationally, standing at 5'7''. This added height allows Gilles to have jumps that are nothing short of breathtaking when landed, particularly her triple lutz, but it also impedes her consistency. Gilles competed at the Colorado Championships this summer, where she defeated two-time U.S. silver medalist Rachael Flatt in the short, but fell behind her in the long program and overall. The bronze medalist from last year's Junior Grand Prix Final and 9th place finisher from the 2009 U.S. Championships, Gilles has the opportunity for this to be somewhat of a breakthrough season, but only somewhat, because it's unlikely she will make the Olympic team. She was granted her first senior Grand Prix assignment, being this competition, in the spring and was eventually added to the Skate America roster when Michelle Kwan announced her decision not to return to competitive skating. A solid finish here will be a tall order for Gilles, as she is competing against seven creditable skaters and five especially formidable ladies (Asada, Kim, Kostner, Nakano, and Zhang). Regardless of placement, this competition will be of tremendous service to Gilles's development, and it will give her an idea of how she stacks up with some of the top female figure skaters in the world.
Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
The pride of South Korea will take to the ice for the first time since her victory at the 2009 World Championships, where she won her first world title by an astounding 16.42 points, breaking the then existing world record by over eight marks. Kim has been one of the few skaters to have avoided summer competitions, and comes to Paris to debut her new short program to themes from "James Bond" and her long program to Gershwin's "Piano Concerto in F." Orser lauded Kim's new programs in an Icenetwork article back in July; however, Kim critiqued them in a more staid manner in a recent interview, commenting "Though I am under the apprehension that both programs of this season are less gorgeous than those of last season, I will prepare them well and do my best as I have done before."
Although Kim is perhaps not as talented a skater technically speaking as Asada, she is able to work the code of points in her favor more so than her top rival. An example of this is that receives nearly unanimous level fours for her non-jump elements, even while some of her spin and spiral postitions don't achieve the prettiest shapes. The code of points also aids her in the fact that she can switch her problematic triple loop with an easier, quality double axel, which doesn't end up costing her much at all. Kim's speed, detailed choreography, and committed expression enabled her to receive the highest program component marks of every phase of every competition she competed in last season. Kim should continue to bank on those high program component marks, but it is unlikely that one will see Kim score jaw-droppingly high artistic marks, like the 68.40 PCS score she received for her long program at 2009 worlds, especially if she is not to skate a clean short program and have a commanding lead after that phase.
One concept Kim must continue to be mindful about to ensure herself success in Vancouver is to train well, but not overtrain and risk serious injury. Kim's back was a huge source of pain for her prior to the 2007 and 2008 World Championships, both competitions of which she was capable of winning, but did not. Kim peaked herself at exactly the right time last season, but it could be difficult to achieve that masterful pacing again, considering all of the pressure from the people of South Korea and Kim's constant drive to push to envelope further (notice how she claimed that she now aims for 215 points instead of just 200 in the article linked earlier in this commentary). Kim is generally strong, albeit unspectacular, at her first event. While this is precisely how she should desire to perform early in the season, such a performance is not always indicative of the culmination of her year, as was the case with her 2007/2008 season.
Kiira Korpi (Finland)
Korpi missed the Grand Prix portion of the season last year due to injury, but recovered in time to defeat Laura Lepisto at the 2009 Finnish Championships to win her first Finnish senior national title. However, because the criteria for selecting the world team was largely based on the results of the 2009 European Championships, Korpi was not chosen to compete in Los Angeles because of her 5th place finish at that event - the lowest placement of the three Finnish women (Korpi, Lepisto, Susanna Poykio) competing there. Korpi has already gotten her feet wet this season, competing at the Nebelhorn Trophy and Finlandia Trophy, where she placed 2nd and 3rd, respectively. It seems likely that Laura Lepisto will secure one of the two berths available for the Finnish women intending to compete at the 2010 Olympic Games, which means that Korpi will need to fend off current European bronze medalist Susanna Poykio for the second spot. This should prove to be an interesting battle, as both skaters are very comparable in their overall consistency and potential. Poykio may have had the upper hand when it came to last year's Europeans, where Korpi (in the video shown above) took a devastating fall into the boards in her long program, but Poykio didn't exactly show the world that she was of the best use to the Finnish team in Los Angeles with 13th place finish, a placement even lower than Carolina Kostner and her epic long program meltdown. Korpi's competitions in the early part of the season are great opportunities for building confidence, but shouldn't have much impact on whether she is named to the Olympic team or not. Peaking as close to the Olympics as possible will be of the utmost importance for Korpi to return to a second Olympic Games, and to improve on her 16th place finish from 2006.
Carolina Kostner (Italy)
As dream of a city Los Angeles was for Yu-Na Kim, it was a living nightmare for Carolina Kostner. Entering the long program in 5th place, Kostner appeared rattled by Kim's thunderous ovation, as the 22-year-old Italian went on to skate her worst long program in memory, one which contained zero clean triple jumps. The performance dropped Kostner to 12th, understandably prompting her to make a coaching change from Michael Huth to Frank Carroll, who is currently coaching Evan Lysacek and Mirai Nagasu also. Kostner could be the ultimate Olympic dark horse if she is somehow able to gain consistency, confidence, and competitive fire by Vancouver.
Kostner skates with blinding speed, has creditable height on her triples, and is armed with a strong sense of musicality, which, coupled with strong poltical favor from Italian ISU head Ottavio Cinquanta, make it foolish for one to count her out of the medal picture in Vancouver. A recent training video from an Italian television network shows Kostner to have made several changes to her skating in the short time she has had with Frank Carroll, including having more fluid entrances to her flip and loop, and adding the triple toe as a solo jump. She did not show a triple flip+triple toe combination, and given her recent troubles with that combination (having only one out 10 successful triple+triple combination attempts last season), Kostner may be going back to an easier triple flip+double toe combination and putting the triple toe in place of her double axel solo jump in the long program.
Kostner has been wise to let both of her programs be of a more classical genre this season, as classical programs, such as her 2007 Canon short program, aptly suit her artistry. Kostner will debut her short program to Tchaikovsky's "Chopin Nocturne and Violin Concerto" and her long program to Bach's "Air on a G String" and Vivaldi's "Cello Concerto" in Paris. If recent history is any indication, Kostner will not be in strong form here, as her opening performances during several previous seasons have been of particular sloppiness. Little is known of whether Kostner will be able to come back from her Los Angeles catastrophe and skate of quality worthy of making the Olympic podium, but one will be able to start finding out after this weekend. Kostner has many opportunities in her favor to make the Olympic podium; all she has to do is trust herself and take them.
Yukari Nakano (Japan)
Nakano is generally strong early in the season, but was not so at the recent Japan Open, scoring below 100 points with a technically and choreographically fireless long program to "The Firebird." Her debut of her new long program was of particular disappointment to many of Nakano's fans, as she has enhanced her style over the past several seasons, and showed an especially mature presentation in her long program to the ballet score of "Giselle" last season. Nakano has had an impressive career, but one that has had many unerasable disappointments, which include her falling short of an Olympic team that she probably should have been on in 2006 (instead of Miki Ando who finished 15th in Turino), and missing a world championship medal in 2008 in a controversial result. Most recently, Nakano led the field after the short program at the Japanese nationals in December 2008, but ended up skating one of her weakest long programs in memory, dropping to 5th place and being left off of the world championship team.
Nakano has several lovely aspects to her skating, all of which are marred by her greatest trademark and weakness, her leg wrap. Skaters typically cross their legs tightly in the air for a jump, but for whatever peculiar reason, Nakano developed a technique where her left leg crosses over her right thigh, thus creating a distracting line and providing an impediment to the rotation speed of her jumps. She is immune from using that technique on her salchow jump and also on her triple axel, a jump she has not landed cleanly in well over a year.
As far as placements are concerned for this competition, it is worth noting that Nakano improved very quickly at the beginning of last season, when she performed poorly at a minor competition in Japan before going on to skate strongly and place second at Skate America. Nakano was also strong at her opening Grand Prix event in 2007, Skate Canada, and thus could be in for a good competition here despite her poor outing in Japan just weeks ago.
Caroline Zhang (USA)
Zhang will be returning to competition after a raucous off-season, which included two coaching changes (one to Charlene Wong and one back to her original coach, Mingzhu Li), a torn meniscus, and a third place finish (behind Rachael Flatt and Mirai Nagasu) at the Golden West competition last month. Zhang had a bittersweet 2008/2009 season, missing the world championship team while going on to prove in nearly every way possible, whether it be Alissa Czisny's short program meltdown in Los Angeles, Zhang's fourth place finish against a deep field at the Four Continents Championships, or Zhang attaining the top technical score in her free skate at the World Team Trophy, that she deserved to compete in Los Angeles.
Zhang has certain aspects to her skating that are absolutely spellbinding, and other aspects that earn her a plethora of scornful remarks from observers. Zhang can bend her body limitlessly, but skates slower than Carolina Kostner does in slow motion and has an extremely awkward technique on her flip and lutzes, where she twists her hips and kicks her leg up to the ceiling, a technique dubbed the "mule kick" by critics. The main issue with Zhang is that she has been said to have an extremely difficult time breaking out of her confort zone, which is certainly an evident reality when considering the lack of improvement in many aspects of her skating over the past few seasons in terms of speed, transitions, the mule kick, and presentation. Zhang is notorious for flutzing, but was credited with a clean lutz at the Golden West competition. However, she received an "!" call for her flip at that competition, which was also a call she received at this year's U.S. nationals.
Zhang was far from her optimum at her first competition last season, Skate Canada, which seemed to play a factor in how she was scored at nationals relative to Alissa Czisny, who outscored Zhang in the long program despite only landing three triples to Zhang's six. Zhang seems to be marked more favorably internationally than she is domestically, an oddity which she would like to reverse for the time being to earn an Olympic berth. As nationals results are frequently based off of Grand Prix results when it comes to someone being favored on the second mark, two quality performances are necessary for Zhang in Paris.
Predicted Standings-Ladies
Gold: Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
Silver: Mao Asada (Japan)
Bronze: Yukari Nakano (Japan)
4th: Carolina Kostner (Italy)
5th: Caroline Zhang (USA)
6th: Elene Gedevanishvili (Georgia)
That is all.
Sunday, October 11, 2009
TEB Preview-Men
Men
Ryan Bradley (USA)
The 2007 U.S. silver medalist's quirky style and crowd-pleasing charm make him an ideal show skater, but his relatively weak basic skating skills and inconsistent jumps do not make him the dream competitive skater. Bradley has a respectable competitive track record, having placed in the top five at the last three U.S. Championships and 15th at the 2007 World Championships. Bradley has already competed once this year, finishing 4th at the Nebelhorn Trophy, where he did manage to pull off a quad in the short. While it is always ideal to train with someone who is a top skater to motivate you further, it would seem probable that Bradley gets passed under the dust by his current coach, Tom Zakrajsek, because he does not have as strong an Olympic bid as his training mates, Rachael Flatt and Brandon Mroz. With the current depth in U.S. men's skating, Bradley seems to rank behind five men (Jeremy Abbott, Evan Lysacek, Mroz, Adam Rippon, and Johnny Weir) to get one of the three spots on the Olympic team, and thus a major upset would be in order for Bradley to compete in Vancouver. Nonetheless, Bradley has pulled off a major upset once, at 2007 nationals, where he was only expected to be an outside contender for the world team and ended up finishing 2nd and beating Johnny Weir in the process.
Vaughn Chipeur (Canada)
Armed with jumps that launch to the sky, it is peculiar that the reigning Canadian silver medalist does not have a quadruple jump in his repetoire. Chipeur has a rough, unpolished style, muscles all of his elements, and carries a tremedous amount of tension in his upper body (particularly his shoulders), but is a good competitor, has a stellar, delayed triple axel, and has excellent speed across the ice. Chipeur finished 12th at his first world championship in Los Angeles, coming just one placement shy of helping Patrick Chan secure three Olympic berths for Canada in the Olympics. Chipeur will be fending off Jeremy Ten, Shawn Sawyer, and Kevin Reynolds for the 2nd spot on the Canadian Olympic team, and while Chipeur by no means has it sewn up, he is favored for it based on his performances at last year's Canadian Nationals, Four Continents Championships, and World Championships. Chipeur will be the lone Canadian male competing in Paris, and his result here, if poor, will not necessarily foreshadow whether he makes the Olympic team. Chipeur appears to be a skater who performs better at home then overseas, and his performances at the end of last season were far superior to those at the beginning.
Brian Joubert (France)
The French heart-throb had nearly every opportunity handed to him on a platter to win his second world championship title in Los Angeles last season. Evgeni Plushenko and Stephane Lambel had yet to announce their return to skating, and Daisuke Takahashi was out because of an injury. The judges were clearly rewarding Joubert's experience, and the fact that he was trying quads in both programs, over pre-competition favorite Patrick Chan of Canada. He was even leading the field going into a long program with a program that included a botched combination with an under rotated second jump that was ratified as a complete jump. However, in the long program, Joubert succumbed to the pressure brought about by Evan Lysacek's clean performance, fell on an easy double axel, and fell to third. This disappointment led the French federation to give Joubert a new coach, Laurent Depouilly, and have former world ice dance champions Albena Denkova and Maxim Staviski choreograph his programs for the Olympic season. Although it is not ideal for one to peak at the beginning of the season, it is worth noting that, in previous seasons, Joubert's first event foreshadowed the success or failure of the rest of his season. In 2005, he only placed 3rd at Skate America, and ended up finishing 6th at the Olympics, although he did salvage his season with a silver at worlds. In 2006, he won Trophée Eric Bompard and ended up going undefeated that season. In 2008, he was only 4th at this event and went on to finish only 3rd at Worlds. If this pattern continues, much will be at skate for Joubert's confidence at his opening Grand Prix.
Nobunari Oda
Oda could be a force to be reckoned with if he just the learned the simplistic art of how to count. Oda is capable of landing quad+triple combinations and is blessed with good flexibility and deep knees, which enable him to land his jumps softly and securely. He arrived to the recent Stars, Stripes, and Skates show with his new Charlie Chaplin long program and eight cleanly landed triple jumps in tow. Unfortunately, Oda often forgets that there are only a maximum of three combinations allowed in the long program, and that if one repeats a jump twice without doing it in combination, the second jump is counted as a combination. Oda has made this mistake at four major competitions (2006 nationals, 2006 worlds, 2007 worlds, and 2009 worlds) and lost the 2006 national title, 2006 world bronze medal and a 2006 Olympic team berth because of his inept ability to work around the jump rules of the code of points. Oda's 7th place finish at 2009 Worlds, along with Takahiko Kozuka's 6th place finish, mean that Japan will have three berths for the men at the 2010 Winter Olympics, and Oda will most likely receive one of them. In Paris, Oda will be up against a deep field that includes Joubert, Adam Rippon, and Tomas Verner. He does have the capability of winning this event if he skates well, and based on his recent show performance, he should, at the very least, be in contention to do so.
Yannick Ponsero (France)
Ponsero has to be one of the sport's premier headcases, which is a real shame because he is capable of having one of the most breathtaking quadruple jumps in the sport (and is the only skater besides Evgeni Plushenko who has received a final mark of +2 GOE for that element), and has excellent speed and commendable edge work. Ponsero won the free skate at last year's Europeans, but missed the podium by .06 because of a double lutz in his short. Unfortunately, his overall Europeans performance was far superior to his showing in Los Angeles at Worlds, where he finished 16th. Ponsero did not start off this season well at the French Masters competition, taking a nasty fall on his triple axel in his long program and finishing 4th behind Florent Amodio, Joubert, and Alban Preaubert. Ponsero is competing against a deep field in Paris, and will compete with many creditable skaters at his next event, Cup of China, so his aspirations for qualifying to the Grand Prix Final are relatively dim. He has every capability to attain the second spot on the 2010 French Olympic team; however, if he finishes 3rd at the 2010 French Nationals, he will also have his lackluster showing in Los Angeles to blame for an Olympic dream taken away.
Alban Préaubert (France)
A native of Grenoble, the host city for the 1968 Winter Olympics, Préaubert has demonstrated that he is an Olympic caliber skater, but will need to perform especially well at French nationals to be named to the Olympic team. The 24-year-old has competed in two world championships, placing 8th in 2006 and 11th in 2007, and was scheduled to compete in 2008 but withdrew. He did not qualify to the world team last season, but did crack the top five at the European Championships. Préaubert is comparable to Ryan Bradley with his entertaining, yet unpolished, artistry, and also considering the fact that the two have had commendable careers without accomplishing anything spectacular in the sport. Préaubert is not as talented of a skater as Yannick Ponsero, but the former has been more consistent throughout his career, which will be a necessary aid for Préaubert come French nationals. Préabert beat Ponsero slightly at French Masters, and the judges' marks could be swayed in Préaubert's favor at French nationals for him to make the Olympic team if he were to beat Ponsero at this event also.
Adam Rippon (USA)
Rippon struggled throughout the bulk of last season, until he switched coaches from Nikolai Morozov to Brian Orser, the latter of whom is a two-time Olympic silver medalist and coach of reigning world champion Yu-Na Kim. Rippon competed at the 2009 U.S. Championships immediately following his switch to Orser, and had a shaky outing with a 7th place finish. However, by the time Junior Worlds rolled around, Rippon had transformed, landing two triple axels in his long program for the first time and handily winning the title by over 17 points. Rippon, just 19 years of age, is already a very polished, lyrical skater who resembles the Japanese skaters very much with his soft jump landings and superior edge quality. Rippon's total score of 222.00 at Junior Worlds would have placed him 7th at Worlds, ahead of where Brandon Mroz and Jeremy Abbott finished, and he actually would have placed 6th adding back the points he lost for not doing an additional footwork sequence at Junior Worlds (only one footwork sequence is allowed in a men's long program at junior worlds, two footwork sequences are allowed for senior men). The question that will begin to be answered at TEB is whether Rippon's performance at Junior Worlds was a fluke. Consistency will be imperative for Rippon at his two Grand Prixs, in order to be marked favorably at nationals if he is to have a legitimate opportunity to make the 2010 Olympic team. Rippon did not have a stellar Grand Prix season last year, but with a new coach will look to start off on the right track and stay there.
Tomas Verner (Czech Republic)
Verner would be wise to leave his current coach, Michael Huth, something Carolina Kostner did over the summer, because the Czech's consistency has been nothing to swoon over throughout his entire career. Verner is very much the equivalent of Carolina Kostner on the men's side, as both skaters have fine jumping ability (when they're on) and have made many strides artistically over the past several seasons, but both skaters have always struggled with poor consistency and have lost several medals in major competitions because of that foible. Verner is one of the few men who consistently attempts quads in both programs, and actually landed them both at Worlds in Los Angeles, where he finished 4th. Verner actually had one of his better competitions in Los Angeles, but taking into the account that he was off the podium there with Lambiel, Plushenko, and Takahashi not present, it wouldn't be wise to bet money on him to medal at the Olympics. At his peak, Verner beat Lambiel and Joubert to take the 2008 European title, only to hit rock bottom at Worlds with a 15th place finish (he was 20th in the long). Verner could feasibly win this competition, but is seldom ever at his optimum early in the season, having finished 6th at this event in 2007.
Sergei Voronov (Russia)
Although by no means a poor skater, Voronov's presence as the Russian national champion has brought much encouragment for 2006 Olympic champion Evgeni Plushenko to come out of retirement. Having competed at three world championships, Voronov's results have been up and down, finishing 19th in 2007, 7th in 2008, and 13th in 2009. Vornov has won the last two Russian national titles; however, he was beaten by Andrei Lutai at the 2009 Worlds by three placements. As Russia has only two spots for the Olympics, and with Plushenko more than a lock for the first one, Voronov and Lutai are in direct battle for the second. Voronov opened up his season this weekend at the Finandia Trophy, skating solidly and finishing 2nd, ahead of Stephen Carriere of the United States. Voronov will compete next at Cup of China.
Predicted Standings-Men
Gold: Nobunari Oda (Japan)
Silver: Brian Joubert (France)
Bronze: Adam Rippon (USA)
4th: Tomas Verner (Czech Republic)
5th: Alban Preaubert (France)
6th: Ryan Bradley (USA)
Next post: TEB Ladies Preview
That is all.
Ryan Bradley (USA)
The 2007 U.S. silver medalist's quirky style and crowd-pleasing charm make him an ideal show skater, but his relatively weak basic skating skills and inconsistent jumps do not make him the dream competitive skater. Bradley has a respectable competitive track record, having placed in the top five at the last three U.S. Championships and 15th at the 2007 World Championships. Bradley has already competed once this year, finishing 4th at the Nebelhorn Trophy, where he did manage to pull off a quad in the short. While it is always ideal to train with someone who is a top skater to motivate you further, it would seem probable that Bradley gets passed under the dust by his current coach, Tom Zakrajsek, because he does not have as strong an Olympic bid as his training mates, Rachael Flatt and Brandon Mroz. With the current depth in U.S. men's skating, Bradley seems to rank behind five men (Jeremy Abbott, Evan Lysacek, Mroz, Adam Rippon, and Johnny Weir) to get one of the three spots on the Olympic team, and thus a major upset would be in order for Bradley to compete in Vancouver. Nonetheless, Bradley has pulled off a major upset once, at 2007 nationals, where he was only expected to be an outside contender for the world team and ended up finishing 2nd and beating Johnny Weir in the process.
Vaughn Chipeur (Canada)
Armed with jumps that launch to the sky, it is peculiar that the reigning Canadian silver medalist does not have a quadruple jump in his repetoire. Chipeur has a rough, unpolished style, muscles all of his elements, and carries a tremedous amount of tension in his upper body (particularly his shoulders), but is a good competitor, has a stellar, delayed triple axel, and has excellent speed across the ice. Chipeur finished 12th at his first world championship in Los Angeles, coming just one placement shy of helping Patrick Chan secure three Olympic berths for Canada in the Olympics. Chipeur will be fending off Jeremy Ten, Shawn Sawyer, and Kevin Reynolds for the 2nd spot on the Canadian Olympic team, and while Chipeur by no means has it sewn up, he is favored for it based on his performances at last year's Canadian Nationals, Four Continents Championships, and World Championships. Chipeur will be the lone Canadian male competing in Paris, and his result here, if poor, will not necessarily foreshadow whether he makes the Olympic team. Chipeur appears to be a skater who performs better at home then overseas, and his performances at the end of last season were far superior to those at the beginning.
Brian Joubert (France)
The French heart-throb had nearly every opportunity handed to him on a platter to win his second world championship title in Los Angeles last season. Evgeni Plushenko and Stephane Lambel had yet to announce their return to skating, and Daisuke Takahashi was out because of an injury. The judges were clearly rewarding Joubert's experience, and the fact that he was trying quads in both programs, over pre-competition favorite Patrick Chan of Canada. He was even leading the field going into a long program with a program that included a botched combination with an under rotated second jump that was ratified as a complete jump. However, in the long program, Joubert succumbed to the pressure brought about by Evan Lysacek's clean performance, fell on an easy double axel, and fell to third. This disappointment led the French federation to give Joubert a new coach, Laurent Depouilly, and have former world ice dance champions Albena Denkova and Maxim Staviski choreograph his programs for the Olympic season. Although it is not ideal for one to peak at the beginning of the season, it is worth noting that, in previous seasons, Joubert's first event foreshadowed the success or failure of the rest of his season. In 2005, he only placed 3rd at Skate America, and ended up finishing 6th at the Olympics, although he did salvage his season with a silver at worlds. In 2006, he won Trophée Eric Bompard and ended up going undefeated that season. In 2008, he was only 4th at this event and went on to finish only 3rd at Worlds. If this pattern continues, much will be at skate for Joubert's confidence at his opening Grand Prix.
Nobunari Oda
Oda could be a force to be reckoned with if he just the learned the simplistic art of how to count. Oda is capable of landing quad+triple combinations and is blessed with good flexibility and deep knees, which enable him to land his jumps softly and securely. He arrived to the recent Stars, Stripes, and Skates show with his new Charlie Chaplin long program and eight cleanly landed triple jumps in tow. Unfortunately, Oda often forgets that there are only a maximum of three combinations allowed in the long program, and that if one repeats a jump twice without doing it in combination, the second jump is counted as a combination. Oda has made this mistake at four major competitions (2006 nationals, 2006 worlds, 2007 worlds, and 2009 worlds) and lost the 2006 national title, 2006 world bronze medal and a 2006 Olympic team berth because of his inept ability to work around the jump rules of the code of points. Oda's 7th place finish at 2009 Worlds, along with Takahiko Kozuka's 6th place finish, mean that Japan will have three berths for the men at the 2010 Winter Olympics, and Oda will most likely receive one of them. In Paris, Oda will be up against a deep field that includes Joubert, Adam Rippon, and Tomas Verner. He does have the capability of winning this event if he skates well, and based on his recent show performance, he should, at the very least, be in contention to do so.
Yannick Ponsero (France)
Ponsero has to be one of the sport's premier headcases, which is a real shame because he is capable of having one of the most breathtaking quadruple jumps in the sport (and is the only skater besides Evgeni Plushenko who has received a final mark of +2 GOE for that element), and has excellent speed and commendable edge work. Ponsero won the free skate at last year's Europeans, but missed the podium by .06 because of a double lutz in his short. Unfortunately, his overall Europeans performance was far superior to his showing in Los Angeles at Worlds, where he finished 16th. Ponsero did not start off this season well at the French Masters competition, taking a nasty fall on his triple axel in his long program and finishing 4th behind Florent Amodio, Joubert, and Alban Preaubert. Ponsero is competing against a deep field in Paris, and will compete with many creditable skaters at his next event, Cup of China, so his aspirations for qualifying to the Grand Prix Final are relatively dim. He has every capability to attain the second spot on the 2010 French Olympic team; however, if he finishes 3rd at the 2010 French Nationals, he will also have his lackluster showing in Los Angeles to blame for an Olympic dream taken away.
Alban Préaubert (France)
A native of Grenoble, the host city for the 1968 Winter Olympics, Préaubert has demonstrated that he is an Olympic caliber skater, but will need to perform especially well at French nationals to be named to the Olympic team. The 24-year-old has competed in two world championships, placing 8th in 2006 and 11th in 2007, and was scheduled to compete in 2008 but withdrew. He did not qualify to the world team last season, but did crack the top five at the European Championships. Préaubert is comparable to Ryan Bradley with his entertaining, yet unpolished, artistry, and also considering the fact that the two have had commendable careers without accomplishing anything spectacular in the sport. Préaubert is not as talented of a skater as Yannick Ponsero, but the former has been more consistent throughout his career, which will be a necessary aid for Préaubert come French nationals. Préabert beat Ponsero slightly at French Masters, and the judges' marks could be swayed in Préaubert's favor at French nationals for him to make the Olympic team if he were to beat Ponsero at this event also.
Adam Rippon (USA)
Rippon struggled throughout the bulk of last season, until he switched coaches from Nikolai Morozov to Brian Orser, the latter of whom is a two-time Olympic silver medalist and coach of reigning world champion Yu-Na Kim. Rippon competed at the 2009 U.S. Championships immediately following his switch to Orser, and had a shaky outing with a 7th place finish. However, by the time Junior Worlds rolled around, Rippon had transformed, landing two triple axels in his long program for the first time and handily winning the title by over 17 points. Rippon, just 19 years of age, is already a very polished, lyrical skater who resembles the Japanese skaters very much with his soft jump landings and superior edge quality. Rippon's total score of 222.00 at Junior Worlds would have placed him 7th at Worlds, ahead of where Brandon Mroz and Jeremy Abbott finished, and he actually would have placed 6th adding back the points he lost for not doing an additional footwork sequence at Junior Worlds (only one footwork sequence is allowed in a men's long program at junior worlds, two footwork sequences are allowed for senior men). The question that will begin to be answered at TEB is whether Rippon's performance at Junior Worlds was a fluke. Consistency will be imperative for Rippon at his two Grand Prixs, in order to be marked favorably at nationals if he is to have a legitimate opportunity to make the 2010 Olympic team. Rippon did not have a stellar Grand Prix season last year, but with a new coach will look to start off on the right track and stay there.
Tomas Verner (Czech Republic)
Verner would be wise to leave his current coach, Michael Huth, something Carolina Kostner did over the summer, because the Czech's consistency has been nothing to swoon over throughout his entire career. Verner is very much the equivalent of Carolina Kostner on the men's side, as both skaters have fine jumping ability (when they're on) and have made many strides artistically over the past several seasons, but both skaters have always struggled with poor consistency and have lost several medals in major competitions because of that foible. Verner is one of the few men who consistently attempts quads in both programs, and actually landed them both at Worlds in Los Angeles, where he finished 4th. Verner actually had one of his better competitions in Los Angeles, but taking into the account that he was off the podium there with Lambiel, Plushenko, and Takahashi not present, it wouldn't be wise to bet money on him to medal at the Olympics. At his peak, Verner beat Lambiel and Joubert to take the 2008 European title, only to hit rock bottom at Worlds with a 15th place finish (he was 20th in the long). Verner could feasibly win this competition, but is seldom ever at his optimum early in the season, having finished 6th at this event in 2007.
Sergei Voronov (Russia)
Although by no means a poor skater, Voronov's presence as the Russian national champion has brought much encouragment for 2006 Olympic champion Evgeni Plushenko to come out of retirement. Having competed at three world championships, Voronov's results have been up and down, finishing 19th in 2007, 7th in 2008, and 13th in 2009. Vornov has won the last two Russian national titles; however, he was beaten by Andrei Lutai at the 2009 Worlds by three placements. As Russia has only two spots for the Olympics, and with Plushenko more than a lock for the first one, Voronov and Lutai are in direct battle for the second. Voronov opened up his season this weekend at the Finandia Trophy, skating solidly and finishing 2nd, ahead of Stephen Carriere of the United States. Voronov will compete next at Cup of China.
Predicted Standings-Men
Gold: Nobunari Oda (Japan)
Silver: Brian Joubert (France)
Bronze: Adam Rippon (USA)
4th: Tomas Verner (Czech Republic)
5th: Alban Preaubert (France)
6th: Ryan Bradley (USA)
Next post: TEB Ladies Preview
That is all.
Saturday, October 10, 2009
TEB Preview-Pairs and Dance
Pairs
Jessica Dube/Bryce Davidson (Canada)
The only pair team who has even a remote chance of beating the current world champions at this event is the 2008 world bronze medalists and two-time Canadian pair champions Jessica Dube and Bryce Davidson. Dube and Davidson are capable of being a brilliant pair, with strong side-by-side jumps, lifts, and musicality in their arsenal. However, they are also capable of being an inconsistent pair with programs that don't spark emotion; an example being their long program at 2009 Worlds which lead them to a 7th place finish. Dube and Davidson's disappointing showing in Los Angeles also means that Canada will not have three Olympic berths in the pairs event, although it is very unlikely that Dube and Davidson will sink to 3rd at Canadian Nationals and be left off the Olympic team. Dube and Davidson had originally planned to keep last year's long program to "Carmen," but midway through the off season they announced that they would be skating their long program to "The Way We Were" instead, with their short program being to the music of "Requiem For a Dream." Although Dube and Davidson will be hard-pressed to defeat Savchenko and Szolkowy, they have a feasible chance to finish 2nd, provided that they beat the 5th place finishers from last year's worlds, Maria Mukhortova and Maxim Trankov of Russia. They will also compete against Savchenko/Szolkowy and Mukhortova/Trankov at Skate Canada.
Vanessa James/Yannick Bonheur (France)
Vanessa James was a former singles skater who competed for the United States and Great Britain before teaming up with Yannick Bonheur in 2007 after his partnership with French pair skater Marylin Pla terminated. The team has come a long way after having only competed one season together, finishing 10th at Europeans and 12th at Worlds, where they had a nearly clean free skate (the only exception being Bonheur's fall out on a side-by-side double axel). James and Bonheur have many decent aspects to their skating, including high throws and twists and precise unison in their side-by-side jumps and choreography. The team will need to add more complex spins, transitions, and have superior interpretation of the music to move up in the standings and it will be necessary to have made these improvements in the off-season in order for them to have a chance to medal at this event. James and Bonheur qualified an Olympic berth for France by virtue of their finish at the 2009 World Championships.
Aliona Savchenko/Robin Szolkowy (Germany)
Savchenko and Szolkowy arrived at the 2006 Olympics in Turino as a team budding with potential, entering the competition as European silver medalists. That potential never materialized in Italy, with shaky performances that could be blamed on a first-time Olympic experience or the distraction of the investigation of their coach (Ingo Steuer) and his involvement with the Stasi secret police in the former East Germany. Three-and-a-half years later, Savchenko and Szolkowy have become the unquestionable #1 pair team in the world, having won the last two world titles and three European titles. However, the return of three-time world champions Shen Xue and Zhao Hongbo could post a significant roadblock in the German pair's gold medal aspirations. Even if Shen and Zhao are not to return as serious gold medal threats, Aliona and Robin were subject to a poor performance at last season's Grand Prix Final, where they dropped to 3rd and were bested by Chinese pair teams Qing Pang/Jian Tong and Dan Zhang/Hao Zhang. Savchenko and Szolkowy won against a weak field at the recent Nebelhorn Trophy, but their long program didn't appear to be nearly as intricate and passionate as their "Schindler's List" program was from last season. The most crucial aspect to observe about Savchenko and Szolkowy's showing in France is not really based on where they will finish, as they should emerge victorious easily, but rather to see if there will be significant improvement of the long program for this competition.
Maria Mukhortova/Maxim Trankov (Russia)
Mukhortova and Trankov are the 2nd ranked Russian pair behind Yuko Kavaguti and Alexander Smirnov, cracking the top five at Worlds last year and winning the bronze medal at Europeans. The spirited, dramatic duo are in their 7th season skating together, and will be debuting their new programs at this competition. Their short program is to "Appassionata" and their long program is to "Love Story," which could suit their cold yet engaging chemistry in an intriguing way. This team's mastery in the short program, which they won last year at Europeans with a tremendous score of 69.62, has yet to carry over to their long program in a major competition. Botched landings on their side-by-side jumps and throw triple salchow at this year's Europeans prevented any hope of winning there, and the team was criticized by NBC analyist Sandra Bezic at Worlds for their simplistic choreography and lack of actual skating. For this season, it will be imperative that Mukhortova and Trankov bridge the gap between the strength of their short program and the weakness of their long if the team is to break into the top tier of pairs skaters.
Rena Inoue/John Baldwin (USA)
The 2004 and 2006 U.S. pairs champions are perhaps most well-known for their on-ice engagement after their free skate the 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Championships, where Baldwin asked Inoue for her hand in marriage to the face palms of many fans. Tacky wedding proposals aside, the team's skating has declined since their historic feat in 2006, by becoming the first pair to ever land a throw triple axel. The team has dropped the element from their program as of late, and may need it in order to attain one of only two Olympic berths granted to the United States in the pairs event. Citing last year's disappointment of finishing 3rd at nationals and being left off the world team, Inoue and Baldwin have made a coaching change to former U.S. Champions Jenni Meno and Todd Sand. Former U.S. bronze medalist Jenny Kirk is pessimistic about their coaching change, stating, "No matter what Meno and Sand do, I don't see them fixing this team's lackadaisical work ethic and giving Baldwin the 180-degree turnaround he needs." There seems to be quite a bit of truth to this statement, especially considering that Baldwin is seldom able to cleanly land his triple toe loop, which is all the more peculiar when considering that he could land triple axels in his singles days. Inoue and Baldwin have three creditable teams who they will be competing against for those Olympic spots, Keauna McLaughlin and Rockne Brubaker, Caydee Denney and Jeremy Barrett, and Brooke Castile and Benjamin Okolski. Inoue and Baldwin won't be required to transform into the Protopopovs to make the Olympic team, but they will need to show a fair amount of improvement from their performance at last year's U.S. Nationals. Not competing against any U.S. teams who could feasibly go to the Olympics in Paris, it would still help for political favor at U.S. Nationals for Inoue and Baldwin to perform well here, despite the fact that their chances to qualify to the Grand Prix Final are shabby at best.
Predicted Pairs Standings:
Gold: Aliona Savchenko/Robin Szolkowy (Germany)
Silver: Jessica Dube/Bryce Davidson (Canada)
Bronze: Maria Mukhortova/Maxim Trankov (Russia)
4th: Rena Inoue/John Baldwin (USA)
5th: Vanessa James/Yannick Bonheur (France)
Ice Dance
Madison Hubbell/Keiffer Hubbell (USA)
The brother and sister team of Madison and Keiffer Hubbell is coming off of a creditable 2008/2009 season, finishing 4th at U.S. Championships and at World Juniors, where they missed the opportunity to complete a U.S. medal sweep by a mere 0.46. Trophée Eric Bompard will mark the first time that the 2008 U.S. junior dance champions take to the ice in a senior international competition. The Hubbells are competing against two U.S. teams in Paris, who they will need to best at the 2010 U.S. Championships in order to be named to the Olympic team: Emily Samuelson and Evan Bates, and Kimberly Navarro and Brent Bommentre. Both teams bested the Hubbells at the 2009 U.S. Championships, and the prospects of the Hubbells beating one, let alone both, teams here and at the U.S. Championships are weak. The Hubbells need considerable time to improve aspects of their skating, such as extension, originality in their lifts and choreography, and skating closer together. Nonetheless, they should be a force for the Olympic team come 2014; however, with Meryl Davis/Charlie White and Samuelson/Bates likely to stick around into the next quadrennium, the Hubbells will be hard-pressed to become the premier team for U.S. ice dance.
Sinead Kerr/John Kerr (Great Britain)
A creative, expressive team, Sinead and John Kerr have been British national ice dance champions for the last six years, and have placed in the top eight at the last two World Championships. In January, the team became the winner of the bronze medal at Europeans, which was the first European medal attained by a British ice dance team since Jayne Torvill and Christopher Dean's European title in 1994. Sinead and John, 31 and 29 years of age, respectively, have steadily risen through the ranks at the six World Championships that they have competed in. Unfortunately, they are unlikely to reach the medals stand at a future World Championship/Olympic Games, as it is probable that their competitive skating careers are coming to an end. As far as placements are concerned for this event, the Kerrs should be looking at a bronze medal. It will be an almost insurmountable task to best Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir, and a fairly difficult one to beat Nathalie Pechalat and Fabien Bourzat, but besting the three American dance teams should be a realistic task to accomplish for the British.
Kimberly Navarro/Brent Bommentre (USA)
Navarro and Bommentre have been the U.S. bronze medalists for the last two years; however, they were unable to compete at Worlds last year because of Tanith Belbin and Ben Agosto's successful petition onto the team after they withdrew from nationals due to Agosto's back injury. Emily Samuelson and Evan Bates beat Navarro and Bommentre at this year's U.S. Championships by over five points, a significant margin in ice dance. Navarro and Bommentre are extremely generous and personable performers and are always fun to watch, but are lacking in terms of superior extension, posture, and do not have some of the more complex lifts and spins that one would see from other top teams. With Navarro and Bommentre skating at a later stage of their career and Samuleson and Bates at the beginning of theirs, USFSA would be inclined to give the latter the benefit of the doubt when it comes to determining the Olympic team because of the experience and international recognition Samuelson and Bates could gain by competing in Vancouver. Samuelson and Bates have not competed against Navarro and Bommentre much internationally, but Samuelson and Bates's score at 2009 Worlds (where they finished 11th) was nearly nine points ahead of Navarro and Bommentre's score in 2008 (where they finished 12th). Thus, it is likely that Samuelson and Bates will snatch the third Olympic spot for ice dance at Nationals, and it is equally as probable that they will beat Navarro and Bommentre at this Grand Prix.
Nathalie Pechalat and Fabien Bourzat (France)
Pechalat and Bourzat truly define the word "quirky" with their skating, with impressively innovative lifts and complex steps and choreography. The French progressed rapidly last season, going from 4th at Europeans to 5th at Worlds just two months later, where they beat current European champions and 2008 world bronze medalists Jana Khokhlova and Sergei Novitski of Russia. Staying in the top five come the Olympics will be extremely difficult, as 2008 world champions and fellow compatriots Isabelle Delobel and Olivier Schoenfelder return to the ice after Delobel's pregnancy. Pechalat and Bourzat are right up with the top teams technically, having received eight out of eight level 4s for their elements during their free dance in Los Angeles. Presentation wise, there is some room for improvement with expression, but those marks should boost over time with added reputation. Beating the Kerrs at Worlds after having lost to them at Europeans was also a big plus for Pechalat and Bourzat, and the French will certainly be looking to beat the British at this competition next week.
Emily Samuelson/Evan Bates (USA)
Samuelson and Bates have come a long way in a short period of time, finishing just outside the top 10 at their first world championship this year and winning their first U.S. senior dance medal. Samuelson and Bates' strongest portion of the competition is typically their free dance, where they were 9th in Los Angeles, and their weakest phase is generally the compulsory dance. The team's polish and extension is very impressive, but hopefully the Americans will debut a more original and dynamic free dance, which is scheduled to be to "Canto Della Terra" by Sarah Brightman and Andrea Bocelli, as their "Otonal" free dance last season did not fully stretch the team emotionally. Although Samuelson and Bates, who are 19 and 20, respectively, are extremely creditable skaters for being so young, they are keen on improving on all of their underlying weaknesses. They voiced that they are improving several areas of their skating in the off season in a Golden Skate interview, including their lifts, spins, and overall entertainment value. The strength this team further augments the excellent depth of U.S. ice dancing.
Tessa Virtue/Scott Moir (Canada)
Virtue and Moir were sidelined in the Grand Prix last season because of Virtue undergoing surgery for a rare leg condition where she could not expand and contract her muscles normally. The team came back to finish 2nd at Four Continents and controversially bested training partners Meryl Davis and Charlie White for the bronze medal at this year's World Championship. The Canadians won silver at Worlds in 2008, safely taking over the reign of Canada's top ice dance team, formerly a position held by Marie-France Dubreil and Patrice Lauzon. Virtue and Moir will debut their new original dance, a flamenco piece called "Farrucas," and their new free dance to Gustav Mahler's dramatic "Symphony No. 5". It seems very likely that the three teams on the podium in Vancouver (assuming that no one is injured and that Dolobel comes back to full form after her pregnancy), will be Domnina/Shabalin, Dolobel/Schoenfelder, and a North American team. Since Virtue and Moir beat Davis and White on the latter's home turf at Worlds this year, Davis and White should not stand a significant threat to Virtue and Moir's potential spot on the podium, or at least not nearly as much as Belbin and Agosto. Belbin and Agosto easily finished ahead of Virtue and Moir in Los Angeles, and were ahead of them in all three phases of the competition, but Virtue and Moir have the advantage of the home crowd, and the judges were quick to rip Belbin and Agosto to shreds after Tanith fell in the compulsory dance of 2008 worlds. Whether Virtue and Moir will be able to medal at the Olympics will begin to be seen at this competition. Like Savchenko and Szolkowy, Virtue and Moir are not in much danger to lose this event, but wish to perform well to be scored highly and viewed favorably by the international judges.
Predicted Dance Standings:
Gold: Tessa Virtue/Scott Moir (Canada)
Silver: Nathalie Pechalat/Fabien Bourzat (France)
Bronze: Sinead Kerr/John Kerr (Great Britain)
4th: Emily Samuelson/Evan Bates (USA)
5th: Kimberly Navarro/Brent Bommentre (USA)
6th: Madison Hubbell/Keiffer Hubbell (USA)
Next post: Analysis of men and ladies to compete at TEB
That is all.
Jessica Dube/Bryce Davidson (Canada)
The only pair team who has even a remote chance of beating the current world champions at this event is the 2008 world bronze medalists and two-time Canadian pair champions Jessica Dube and Bryce Davidson. Dube and Davidson are capable of being a brilliant pair, with strong side-by-side jumps, lifts, and musicality in their arsenal. However, they are also capable of being an inconsistent pair with programs that don't spark emotion; an example being their long program at 2009 Worlds which lead them to a 7th place finish. Dube and Davidson's disappointing showing in Los Angeles also means that Canada will not have three Olympic berths in the pairs event, although it is very unlikely that Dube and Davidson will sink to 3rd at Canadian Nationals and be left off the Olympic team. Dube and Davidson had originally planned to keep last year's long program to "Carmen," but midway through the off season they announced that they would be skating their long program to "The Way We Were" instead, with their short program being to the music of "Requiem For a Dream." Although Dube and Davidson will be hard-pressed to defeat Savchenko and Szolkowy, they have a feasible chance to finish 2nd, provided that they beat the 5th place finishers from last year's worlds, Maria Mukhortova and Maxim Trankov of Russia. They will also compete against Savchenko/Szolkowy and Mukhortova/Trankov at Skate Canada.
Vanessa James/Yannick Bonheur (France)
Vanessa James was a former singles skater who competed for the United States and Great Britain before teaming up with Yannick Bonheur in 2007 after his partnership with French pair skater Marylin Pla terminated. The team has come a long way after having only competed one season together, finishing 10th at Europeans and 12th at Worlds, where they had a nearly clean free skate (the only exception being Bonheur's fall out on a side-by-side double axel). James and Bonheur have many decent aspects to their skating, including high throws and twists and precise unison in their side-by-side jumps and choreography. The team will need to add more complex spins, transitions, and have superior interpretation of the music to move up in the standings and it will be necessary to have made these improvements in the off-season in order for them to have a chance to medal at this event. James and Bonheur qualified an Olympic berth for France by virtue of their finish at the 2009 World Championships.
Aliona Savchenko/Robin Szolkowy (Germany)
Savchenko and Szolkowy arrived at the 2006 Olympics in Turino as a team budding with potential, entering the competition as European silver medalists. That potential never materialized in Italy, with shaky performances that could be blamed on a first-time Olympic experience or the distraction of the investigation of their coach (Ingo Steuer) and his involvement with the Stasi secret police in the former East Germany. Three-and-a-half years later, Savchenko and Szolkowy have become the unquestionable #1 pair team in the world, having won the last two world titles and three European titles. However, the return of three-time world champions Shen Xue and Zhao Hongbo could post a significant roadblock in the German pair's gold medal aspirations. Even if Shen and Zhao are not to return as serious gold medal threats, Aliona and Robin were subject to a poor performance at last season's Grand Prix Final, where they dropped to 3rd and were bested by Chinese pair teams Qing Pang/Jian Tong and Dan Zhang/Hao Zhang. Savchenko and Szolkowy won against a weak field at the recent Nebelhorn Trophy, but their long program didn't appear to be nearly as intricate and passionate as their "Schindler's List" program was from last season. The most crucial aspect to observe about Savchenko and Szolkowy's showing in France is not really based on where they will finish, as they should emerge victorious easily, but rather to see if there will be significant improvement of the long program for this competition.
Maria Mukhortova/Maxim Trankov (Russia)
Mukhortova and Trankov are the 2nd ranked Russian pair behind Yuko Kavaguti and Alexander Smirnov, cracking the top five at Worlds last year and winning the bronze medal at Europeans. The spirited, dramatic duo are in their 7th season skating together, and will be debuting their new programs at this competition. Their short program is to "Appassionata" and their long program is to "Love Story," which could suit their cold yet engaging chemistry in an intriguing way. This team's mastery in the short program, which they won last year at Europeans with a tremendous score of 69.62, has yet to carry over to their long program in a major competition. Botched landings on their side-by-side jumps and throw triple salchow at this year's Europeans prevented any hope of winning there, and the team was criticized by NBC analyist Sandra Bezic at Worlds for their simplistic choreography and lack of actual skating. For this season, it will be imperative that Mukhortova and Trankov bridge the gap between the strength of their short program and the weakness of their long if the team is to break into the top tier of pairs skaters.
Rena Inoue/John Baldwin (USA)
The 2004 and 2006 U.S. pairs champions are perhaps most well-known for their on-ice engagement after their free skate the 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Championships, where Baldwin asked Inoue for her hand in marriage to the face palms of many fans. Tacky wedding proposals aside, the team's skating has declined since their historic feat in 2006, by becoming the first pair to ever land a throw triple axel. The team has dropped the element from their program as of late, and may need it in order to attain one of only two Olympic berths granted to the United States in the pairs event. Citing last year's disappointment of finishing 3rd at nationals and being left off the world team, Inoue and Baldwin have made a coaching change to former U.S. Champions Jenni Meno and Todd Sand. Former U.S. bronze medalist Jenny Kirk is pessimistic about their coaching change, stating, "No matter what Meno and Sand do, I don't see them fixing this team's lackadaisical work ethic and giving Baldwin the 180-degree turnaround he needs." There seems to be quite a bit of truth to this statement, especially considering that Baldwin is seldom able to cleanly land his triple toe loop, which is all the more peculiar when considering that he could land triple axels in his singles days. Inoue and Baldwin have three creditable teams who they will be competing against for those Olympic spots, Keauna McLaughlin and Rockne Brubaker, Caydee Denney and Jeremy Barrett, and Brooke Castile and Benjamin Okolski. Inoue and Baldwin won't be required to transform into the Protopopovs to make the Olympic team, but they will need to show a fair amount of improvement from their performance at last year's U.S. Nationals. Not competing against any U.S. teams who could feasibly go to the Olympics in Paris, it would still help for political favor at U.S. Nationals for Inoue and Baldwin to perform well here, despite the fact that their chances to qualify to the Grand Prix Final are shabby at best.
Predicted Pairs Standings:
Gold: Aliona Savchenko/Robin Szolkowy (Germany)
Silver: Jessica Dube/Bryce Davidson (Canada)
Bronze: Maria Mukhortova/Maxim Trankov (Russia)
4th: Rena Inoue/John Baldwin (USA)
5th: Vanessa James/Yannick Bonheur (France)
Ice Dance
Madison Hubbell/Keiffer Hubbell (USA)
The brother and sister team of Madison and Keiffer Hubbell is coming off of a creditable 2008/2009 season, finishing 4th at U.S. Championships and at World Juniors, where they missed the opportunity to complete a U.S. medal sweep by a mere 0.46. Trophée Eric Bompard will mark the first time that the 2008 U.S. junior dance champions take to the ice in a senior international competition. The Hubbells are competing against two U.S. teams in Paris, who they will need to best at the 2010 U.S. Championships in order to be named to the Olympic team: Emily Samuelson and Evan Bates, and Kimberly Navarro and Brent Bommentre. Both teams bested the Hubbells at the 2009 U.S. Championships, and the prospects of the Hubbells beating one, let alone both, teams here and at the U.S. Championships are weak. The Hubbells need considerable time to improve aspects of their skating, such as extension, originality in their lifts and choreography, and skating closer together. Nonetheless, they should be a force for the Olympic team come 2014; however, with Meryl Davis/Charlie White and Samuelson/Bates likely to stick around into the next quadrennium, the Hubbells will be hard-pressed to become the premier team for U.S. ice dance.
Sinead Kerr/John Kerr (Great Britain)
A creative, expressive team, Sinead and John Kerr have been British national ice dance champions for the last six years, and have placed in the top eight at the last two World Championships. In January, the team became the winner of the bronze medal at Europeans, which was the first European medal attained by a British ice dance team since Jayne Torvill and Christopher Dean's European title in 1994. Sinead and John, 31 and 29 years of age, respectively, have steadily risen through the ranks at the six World Championships that they have competed in. Unfortunately, they are unlikely to reach the medals stand at a future World Championship/Olympic Games, as it is probable that their competitive skating careers are coming to an end. As far as placements are concerned for this event, the Kerrs should be looking at a bronze medal. It will be an almost insurmountable task to best Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir, and a fairly difficult one to beat Nathalie Pechalat and Fabien Bourzat, but besting the three American dance teams should be a realistic task to accomplish for the British.
Kimberly Navarro/Brent Bommentre (USA)
Navarro and Bommentre have been the U.S. bronze medalists for the last two years; however, they were unable to compete at Worlds last year because of Tanith Belbin and Ben Agosto's successful petition onto the team after they withdrew from nationals due to Agosto's back injury. Emily Samuelson and Evan Bates beat Navarro and Bommentre at this year's U.S. Championships by over five points, a significant margin in ice dance. Navarro and Bommentre are extremely generous and personable performers and are always fun to watch, but are lacking in terms of superior extension, posture, and do not have some of the more complex lifts and spins that one would see from other top teams. With Navarro and Bommentre skating at a later stage of their career and Samuleson and Bates at the beginning of theirs, USFSA would be inclined to give the latter the benefit of the doubt when it comes to determining the Olympic team because of the experience and international recognition Samuelson and Bates could gain by competing in Vancouver. Samuelson and Bates have not competed against Navarro and Bommentre much internationally, but Samuelson and Bates's score at 2009 Worlds (where they finished 11th) was nearly nine points ahead of Navarro and Bommentre's score in 2008 (where they finished 12th). Thus, it is likely that Samuelson and Bates will snatch the third Olympic spot for ice dance at Nationals, and it is equally as probable that they will beat Navarro and Bommentre at this Grand Prix.
Nathalie Pechalat and Fabien Bourzat (France)
Pechalat and Bourzat truly define the word "quirky" with their skating, with impressively innovative lifts and complex steps and choreography. The French progressed rapidly last season, going from 4th at Europeans to 5th at Worlds just two months later, where they beat current European champions and 2008 world bronze medalists Jana Khokhlova and Sergei Novitski of Russia. Staying in the top five come the Olympics will be extremely difficult, as 2008 world champions and fellow compatriots Isabelle Delobel and Olivier Schoenfelder return to the ice after Delobel's pregnancy. Pechalat and Bourzat are right up with the top teams technically, having received eight out of eight level 4s for their elements during their free dance in Los Angeles. Presentation wise, there is some room for improvement with expression, but those marks should boost over time with added reputation. Beating the Kerrs at Worlds after having lost to them at Europeans was also a big plus for Pechalat and Bourzat, and the French will certainly be looking to beat the British at this competition next week.
Emily Samuelson/Evan Bates (USA)
Samuelson and Bates have come a long way in a short period of time, finishing just outside the top 10 at their first world championship this year and winning their first U.S. senior dance medal. Samuelson and Bates' strongest portion of the competition is typically their free dance, where they were 9th in Los Angeles, and their weakest phase is generally the compulsory dance. The team's polish and extension is very impressive, but hopefully the Americans will debut a more original and dynamic free dance, which is scheduled to be to "Canto Della Terra" by Sarah Brightman and Andrea Bocelli, as their "Otonal" free dance last season did not fully stretch the team emotionally. Although Samuelson and Bates, who are 19 and 20, respectively, are extremely creditable skaters for being so young, they are keen on improving on all of their underlying weaknesses. They voiced that they are improving several areas of their skating in the off season in a Golden Skate interview, including their lifts, spins, and overall entertainment value. The strength this team further augments the excellent depth of U.S. ice dancing.
Tessa Virtue/Scott Moir (Canada)
Virtue and Moir were sidelined in the Grand Prix last season because of Virtue undergoing surgery for a rare leg condition where she could not expand and contract her muscles normally. The team came back to finish 2nd at Four Continents and controversially bested training partners Meryl Davis and Charlie White for the bronze medal at this year's World Championship. The Canadians won silver at Worlds in 2008, safely taking over the reign of Canada's top ice dance team, formerly a position held by Marie-France Dubreil and Patrice Lauzon. Virtue and Moir will debut their new original dance, a flamenco piece called "Farrucas," and their new free dance to Gustav Mahler's dramatic "Symphony No. 5". It seems very likely that the three teams on the podium in Vancouver (assuming that no one is injured and that Dolobel comes back to full form after her pregnancy), will be Domnina/Shabalin, Dolobel/Schoenfelder, and a North American team. Since Virtue and Moir beat Davis and White on the latter's home turf at Worlds this year, Davis and White should not stand a significant threat to Virtue and Moir's potential spot on the podium, or at least not nearly as much as Belbin and Agosto. Belbin and Agosto easily finished ahead of Virtue and Moir in Los Angeles, and were ahead of them in all three phases of the competition, but Virtue and Moir have the advantage of the home crowd, and the judges were quick to rip Belbin and Agosto to shreds after Tanith fell in the compulsory dance of 2008 worlds. Whether Virtue and Moir will be able to medal at the Olympics will begin to be seen at this competition. Like Savchenko and Szolkowy, Virtue and Moir are not in much danger to lose this event, but wish to perform well to be scored highly and viewed favorably by the international judges.
Predicted Dance Standings:
Gold: Tessa Virtue/Scott Moir (Canada)
Silver: Nathalie Pechalat/Fabien Bourzat (France)
Bronze: Sinead Kerr/John Kerr (Great Britain)
4th: Emily Samuelson/Evan Bates (USA)
5th: Kimberly Navarro/Brent Bommentre (USA)
6th: Madison Hubbell/Keiffer Hubbell (USA)
Next post: Analysis of men and ladies to compete at TEB
That is all.
Friday, October 9, 2009
2009 Trophée Bompard Preview
There are six total Grand Prixs which are contested in six successive weeks in the fall prior to the final. Each skater or pair/dance team is assigned a maximum of two Grand Prixs, and those who have two Grand Prixs are the only ones with feasible chances to qualify to the Grand Prix Final. The top three finishers from last year's worlds do not compete at the same events, and the same is true for the 4th-6th place finishers. Other factors that determine whether a skater receives two Grand Prix assignments include ISU world ranking, season's best total from last year, and placement at last season's Worlds, Grand Prix Final, and Junior Grand Prix Final. Inevitably, the strength of the competition is greater at some events, particularly when skaters become injured and have to withdraw from a competition. Nonetheless, all events are weighted equally. There is a points system alotted to determine who will compete at the Grand Prix Final, set to take place in Tokyo this December. A first place finish receives 15 points, 2nd place 13 points, 3rd place 11 points, 4th place nine, 5th place seven, 6th place five, 7th place four, and 8th place three. The top six skaters or pair/dance teams in each discipline qualify to the final and all competitors enter the competition with a clean sleight.
The 2009 Trophée Bompard will be contested next week in Paris, France, and will serve as the first major competition of the season, with five world champions scheduled to compete. Although the skaters don't wish to be at their optimum at this time, they still want to be in good enough form to place at this competition, and preferably medal, so as to augment their chances of qualifying to the Grand Prix Final. While it is not the end of the earth if a skater doesn't qualify to the Final, it is of his own benefit to do so to allow for greater confidence and political backing at the skater's national championship and onward to the Olympic Games.
In the pairs event, current two-time world champions Aliona Savchenko and Robin Szolkowy of Germany are coming off of a victory at the Nebelhorn Trophy just two weeks ago. However, their shaky long program at that competition means there is much room for improvement at this competition, although looking at the competition it is unlikely the German pair will be defeated regardless of how they skate.
The 2007 world champion Brian Joubert will be competing at his home Grand Prix event for the 2nd straight year, and Joubert is hardly immune to nerves associated with a home crowd, finishing 4th at this event last year and suffering a defeat to relative unknown Florent Amodio at the French Masters competition just recently. Joubert will not be competing against Amodio at this competition, but should face tight competition from 2009 World Junior Champion Adam Rippon, 2008 European Champion Tomas Verner and compatriots Yannick Ponsero (2009 French Champion) and Alban Preaubert (2006 Grand Prix Finalist).
Canada's premier ice dance team, Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir, will be competing for the first time since last year's World Championships, where they edged training partners Meryl Davis and Charlie White by a mere .04. The Canadians were not present at the Grand Prix last season because Virtue underwent surgery on her legs after it was discovered that she has an unusual condition where her legs were unable to expand and contract normally. Virtue and Moir should have an easy victory at this event, although the French will be well represented by Nathalie Pechalat and Fabien Bourzat, who snuck into the top five at last year's World Championships.
The ladies event is often jokingly referred to as the "ladiezzzz event" by fans, but the competition will be anything other than a snooze fest in Paris, where the deepest ladies Grand Prix field among the six events will take the ice. Defending world champion Yu-Na Kim will face off her top rival, Japan's Mao Asada, while in the process debuting her new programs. Asada recently performed her long program at the Japan Open, but will debut her short program in Paris. Italy's Carolina Kostner is making her first competitive appearence since her nightmare free skate in Los Angeles, where she dropped from 5th place in the short program to 12th overall with a disastrous skate. Three-time Japanese world team member Yukari Nakano and current U.S. bronze medalist Caroline Zhang will also look to stir up the standings. The 2006 Olympic silver medalist, Sasha Cohen, was slated to have Trophée Eric Bompard be her return to competition, but she recently withdrew due to tendonitis in her right calf.
In my next post, I will breakdown of the competitiors who will be competing in each discipline, and my predictions as to where each skater will finish in Paris.
That is all.
The 2009 Trophée Bompard will be contested next week in Paris, France, and will serve as the first major competition of the season, with five world champions scheduled to compete. Although the skaters don't wish to be at their optimum at this time, they still want to be in good enough form to place at this competition, and preferably medal, so as to augment their chances of qualifying to the Grand Prix Final. While it is not the end of the earth if a skater doesn't qualify to the Final, it is of his own benefit to do so to allow for greater confidence and political backing at the skater's national championship and onward to the Olympic Games.
In the pairs event, current two-time world champions Aliona Savchenko and Robin Szolkowy of Germany are coming off of a victory at the Nebelhorn Trophy just two weeks ago. However, their shaky long program at that competition means there is much room for improvement at this competition, although looking at the competition it is unlikely the German pair will be defeated regardless of how they skate.
The 2007 world champion Brian Joubert will be competing at his home Grand Prix event for the 2nd straight year, and Joubert is hardly immune to nerves associated with a home crowd, finishing 4th at this event last year and suffering a defeat to relative unknown Florent Amodio at the French Masters competition just recently. Joubert will not be competing against Amodio at this competition, but should face tight competition from 2009 World Junior Champion Adam Rippon, 2008 European Champion Tomas Verner and compatriots Yannick Ponsero (2009 French Champion) and Alban Preaubert (2006 Grand Prix Finalist).
Canada's premier ice dance team, Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir, will be competing for the first time since last year's World Championships, where they edged training partners Meryl Davis and Charlie White by a mere .04. The Canadians were not present at the Grand Prix last season because Virtue underwent surgery on her legs after it was discovered that she has an unusual condition where her legs were unable to expand and contract normally. Virtue and Moir should have an easy victory at this event, although the French will be well represented by Nathalie Pechalat and Fabien Bourzat, who snuck into the top five at last year's World Championships.
The ladies event is often jokingly referred to as the "ladiezzzz event" by fans, but the competition will be anything other than a snooze fest in Paris, where the deepest ladies Grand Prix field among the six events will take the ice. Defending world champion Yu-Na Kim will face off her top rival, Japan's Mao Asada, while in the process debuting her new programs. Asada recently performed her long program at the Japan Open, but will debut her short program in Paris. Italy's Carolina Kostner is making her first competitive appearence since her nightmare free skate in Los Angeles, where she dropped from 5th place in the short program to 12th overall with a disastrous skate. Three-time Japanese world team member Yukari Nakano and current U.S. bronze medalist Caroline Zhang will also look to stir up the standings. The 2006 Olympic silver medalist, Sasha Cohen, was slated to have Trophée Eric Bompard be her return to competition, but she recently withdrew due to tendonitis in her right calf.
In my next post, I will breakdown of the competitiors who will be competing in each discipline, and my predictions as to where each skater will finish in Paris.
That is all.
"Video Replay = Artistry?" Returns
After a six-month hiatus during the off-season, I am now returning to blogging. I did a few analysis posts last season, but I am planning on updating my blog more frequently this year leading up to the Olympic Games. In addition to my preview analyses of competitions, I will also being doing live play-by-play commentary on whatever upcoming events I can do, and I will be doing more commentary of pairs and dance this season as well. I will aim to have my commentary in an objective manner, while still being thought provoking. If you wish to contact me with a comment, question, or concern, I am VRArtistry on Twitter and my email is jgrusk@hotmail.com.
Friday, April 3, 2009
Final Post of the Season
Unfortunately, I will be temporarily closing down this blog because the season, with the exception of the fairly inconsequential ISU Team Trophy coming up, has terminated. I will plan to post again in October 2009 when the Grand Prix series begins.
I was in attendance at the 2009 World Figure Skating Championships last week for the ladies short, dance free, and ladies free. As you all know the results and happenings of the competition, my own miscellaneous thoughts:
That is all.
I was in attendance at the 2009 World Figure Skating Championships last week for the ladies short, dance free, and ladies free. As you all know the results and happenings of the competition, my own miscellaneous thoughts:
- Yu-Na Kim's performances, especially the SP, were magical. She owned the triple+triple combo and her overall presence was quite comparable to when Katarina Witt was skating. To see her skate well was not really a surprise, as during both the short and long program Kim nailed jump after jump in warm-up, with the exception of falling on the back-end of a triple flip+triple toe towards the end of her long program warm-up. The energy she brought to the ice during her short program was astounding, and had the audience in the palm of her hand throughout the entire skate. There was one moment before she took to her step sequence in the short where the audience cheered for her and her face just lit up; she was clearly having an incredible time out there. Her long was brilliant too, and while it was a wee bit disappointing not to see her go for broke and try the loop, I loved the Ina Bauer into the double axel with the spiral coming out of it. There was quite a bit of national pride at skate amongst the fans in the building; the Korean fans went absolutely nuts when Kim finished but a contingent of Japanese fans sitting behind me didn't even bother to stand after either program of Kim's.
- Joannie Rochette was wonderful, but it's a shame that her long, a performance I was really looking forward to, failed to live up to its potential. Her short was very elegant, especially with the beautiful spiral out of the double axel, and her very precise, nuanced choreography. I actually never witnessed her trying a triple lutz+triple toe in the short program warm-up, so I was surprised to see her stating in an article after the SP had concluded that she was planning on going for it in the competition. Her long warm-up was very good, but her skate was a bit tentative with two relatively major errors. I think what is most impressive about Joannie's skating is her great amplitude on her jumps, and the beautiful use of her arms and her back.
- Miki Ando did two flawless, rotated triple lutz+triple loops during warm-up for her SP, so it was a real shame to see that the one she did in competition was under rotated on the second jump. Miki looks far more impressive live than on TV, as she really has decent posture, great speed, and great height and ice coverage on her triple jumps. While I personally didn't care for her SP, her LP was excellent, and I don't just mean the jumps. While I usually find Miki's skating to revolve around the triple jumps, (BTW she never tried a quad salchow in warm-up), she had great facial expression and I thought her last step sequence was very dynamic and strong. She certainly didn't have the most difficult choreography, but she absolutely sold what she could out of that performance.
- Mao Asada probably had the most disciplined warm-ups of any of the ladies, trying triple jumps right and left. She looked good during her SP warm-up, landing triple flip+triple loop and a couple triple lutzes. Unfortunately, towards the end of the warm-up the lutz came away from her, stepping out of one attempt and doubling another. The latter mistake came back when she skated her program, but otherwise she was quite lovely. The thing that differentiates Mao so much from Kim is that she skates like no one is watching her, whereas Kim skates like she wants to bring the house down. Asada, while very beautiful, had a sense of predictability in her programs this year that made her less exciting to watch than Kim in my opinion. During the warm-up for her long, Mao landed two beautiful triple axels, both unquestionably rotated and cleanly landed. While her first 3A in her long was fine, she seemed to be too far back in the air to cleanly complete the second. While I don't despise her "Masquerade" long as some other fans do, I think that the major weakness of the program is Mao's absence of a slow section. The choreography is difficult, but unfortunately she makes it look difficult because she doesn't have any time to rest. Her step sequence was the best choreographic passage of the program; very dynamic, intricate, and it went with the music. Kim and Asada had no collisions or near-collisions during either warm-up; if anything Asada was intentionally avoiding Kim.
- Rachael Flatt's artistry is entirely in her face. What is lacking with her is that her arms are fairly stiff, and she holds a lot of tension in her shoulders and upper back, thus causing her to look shorter. It was particularly obvious in the short, when Joannie skated directly after Rachael, with Joannie having a really straight back and Rachael being more hunched over. With that said, Rachael was very wise to switch her long program back to last year's "Romantic Rhapsody" because that one had superior choreography and was a superior music choice as well. Rachael should absolutely be commended for her continued strength as a competitor, and her long program seemed to get stronger as it went. Her triple+triple is an area for concern, however, because she missed it both times in competition. She completed one 3/3 in the short program and long program warm-ups, but both times the triple toe was noticeably under rotated.
- Laura Lepisto has improved her artistry; I believe I noticed more emotion and presence than at Europeans and other previous competitions. Her weakness in presentation, like Flatt, is her relatively stiff arms. She landed a beautiful triple toe+triple toe during the SP warm-up but only did a triple toe+double toe during the competition. She has nice technique, and is a very clean skater who I will look forward to seeing more of in the future.
- Alena Leonova was most enjoyable to see. I was not a happy soul when she beat Caroline Zhang and Ashley Wagner for the world junior title, but all of that disappointment went away when I saw her short program. Sometimes, you just like to see a skater who isn't so technically polished, but really fights for everything and who clearly enjoys skating. She really just looked like she was at the World Championship for the first time and she was going to enjoy every bit of it. Her spirals and spin positions are unquestionably in need of improvement, but her jumps are quite solid (a slight exception being the lutz) and she reminded be quite a bit of Stephanie Rosenthal from 2006 Nationals in terms of her ability to show that she enjoys skating.
- Fumie Suguri's skating, sadly, made me wish Yukari Nakano had been there instead. While Suguri did skate with some palpable fire in her short program, her Otonal long program was quite a festival of boredom. However, technically she was pretty strong, and her soft landings to her jumps are absolutely one of the strongest points to her skating, and such a quality was something that not many of the other girls had. She and Ando came very late to the SP warm-up, and Suguri herself was marked with going overtime by a second during her SP. I was looking at the clock as Suguri finished her SP. She reached her ending pose at 2:50, but the clock strangely went on an extra second to 2:51, thus incurring a deduction for being overtime.
- It was great to see Sarah Meier back in action, and I thoroughly impressed at how steady and relatively fit she looked considering her injuries and lack of training time. She looked very solid throughout her warm-ups and competition skates, and I particularly enjoyed her long program (the same LP she did last year), which had a particularly nice step sequence.
- Elene Gedevanishvilli has great spark and energy to her skating, and had a particularly nice triple lutz and triple toe+triple toe combination in her long program. She has excellent speed, just needs to polish her positions and improve her consistency.
- Alissa Czisny looked excellent during the SP warm-up, not missing a thing. After her triple lutz+double toe in the short, I thought we were in for an excellent program until Czisny held on to her triple flip entrance edge way too long (and thus too close to the boards), and she tried to get her weight forward to compensate for the lack of room she had, thus ending up falling. Her long program warm-up was also strong, landing the triple toe+double toe+double toe that she didn't do in her actual skate. Czisny landed two clean triple lutz+double toe combinations in her long, in addition to a triple flip. Her triple loop was noticeably under rotated, and was rightfully downgraded. While Czisny is a very elegant skater, she really does lack speed in comparison with the top women. I think that could play a part into why her jumps are so wonky, considering that she often goes into her jumps with fairly slow and tentative entrances.
- According to Philip Hersh's latest article, Carolina Kostner was not injured and this is most surprising. Kostner really needs to invigorate her training habits, because in the warm-up for the long program, I looked at her fairly closely and never saw a triple+triple attempt or a triple lutz attempt. I also didn't see a triple+triple attempt during her short, although if I remember correctly she did do a clean lutz during the warm-up. Her PCS score of 58.48 for her long program was absolutely absurd, although thankfully inconsequential to the final outcome. I actually was very disappointed when Kostner skated so poorly in the long, because I find her "Dumky Trio" long to be very elegant, yet fiery.
That is all.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)