TEB Preview-Pairs and Dance

Pairs



Jessica Dube/Bryce Davidson (Canada)

The only pair team who has even a remote chance of beating the current world champions at this event is the 2008 world bronze medalists and two-time Canadian pair champions Jessica Dube and Bryce Davidson. Dube and Davidson are capable of being a brilliant pair, with strong side-by-side jumps, lifts, and musicality in their arsenal. However, they are also capable of being an inconsistent pair with programs that don't spark emotion; an example being their long program at 2009 Worlds which lead them to a 7th place finish. Dube and Davidson's disappointing showing in Los Angeles also means that Canada will not have three Olympic berths in the pairs event, although it is very unlikely that Dube and Davidson will sink to 3rd at Canadian Nationals and be left off the Olympic team. Dube and Davidson had originally planned to keep last year's long program to "Carmen," but midway through the off season they announced that they would be skating their long program to "The Way We Were" instead, with their short program being to the music of "Requiem For a Dream." Although Dube and Davidson will be hard-pressed to defeat Savchenko and Szolkowy, they have a feasible chance to finish 2nd, provided that they beat the 5th place finishers from last year's worlds, Maria Mukhortova and Maxim Trankov of Russia. They will also compete against Savchenko/Szolkowy and Mukhortova/Trankov at Skate Canada.




Vanessa James/Yannick Bonheur (France)

Vanessa James was a former singles skater who competed for the United States and Great Britain before teaming up with Yannick Bonheur in 2007 after his partnership with French pair skater Marylin Pla terminated. The team has come a long way after having only competed one season together, finishing 10th at Europeans and 12th at Worlds, where they had a nearly clean free skate (the only exception being Bonheur's fall out on a side-by-side double axel). James and Bonheur have many decent aspects to their skating, including high throws and twists and precise unison in their side-by-side jumps and choreography. The team will need to add more complex spins, transitions, and have superior interpretation of the music to move up in the standings and it will be necessary to have made these improvements in the off-season in order for them to have a chance to medal at this event. James and Bonheur qualified an Olympic berth for France by virtue of their finish at the 2009 World Championships.




Aliona Savchenko/Robin Szolkowy (Germany)

Savchenko and Szolkowy arrived at the 2006 Olympics in Turino as a team budding with potential, entering the competition as European silver medalists. That potential never materialized in Italy, with shaky performances that could be blamed on a first-time Olympic experience or the distraction of the investigation of their coach (Ingo Steuer) and his involvement with the Stasi secret police in the former East Germany. Three-and-a-half years later, Savchenko and Szolkowy have become the unquestionable #1 pair team in the world, having won the last two world titles and three European titles. However, the return of three-time world champions Shen Xue and Zhao Hongbo could post a significant roadblock in the German pair's gold medal aspirations. Even if Shen and Zhao are not to return as serious gold medal threats, Aliona and Robin were subject to a poor performance at last season's Grand Prix Final, where they dropped to 3rd and were bested by Chinese pair teams Qing Pang/Jian Tong and Dan Zhang/Hao Zhang. Savchenko and Szolkowy won against a weak field at the recent Nebelhorn Trophy, but their long program didn't appear to be nearly as intricate and passionate as their "Schindler's List" program was from last season. The most crucial aspect to observe about Savchenko and Szolkowy's showing in France is not really based on where they will finish, as they should emerge victorious easily, but rather to see if there will be significant improvement of the long program for this competition.




Maria Mukhortova/Maxim Trankov (Russia)

Mukhortova and Trankov are the 2nd ranked Russian pair behind Yuko Kavaguti and Alexander Smirnov, cracking the top five at Worlds last year and winning the bronze medal at Europeans. The spirited, dramatic duo are in their 7th season skating together, and will be debuting their new programs at this competition. Their short program is to "Appassionata" and their long program is to "Love Story," which could suit their cold yet engaging chemistry in an intriguing way. This team's mastery in the short program, which they won last year at Europeans with a tremendous score of 69.62, has yet to carry over to their long program in a major competition. Botched landings on their side-by-side jumps and throw triple salchow at this year's Europeans prevented any hope of winning there, and the team was criticized by NBC analyist Sandra Bezic at Worlds for their simplistic choreography and lack of actual skating. For this season, it will be imperative that Mukhortova and Trankov bridge the gap between the strength of their short program and the weakness of their long if the team is to break into the top tier of pairs skaters.




Rena Inoue/John Baldwin (USA)

The 2004 and 2006 U.S. pairs champions are perhaps most well-known for their on-ice engagement after their free skate the 2008 U.S. Figure Skating Championships, where Baldwin asked Inoue for her hand in marriage to the face palms of many fans. Tacky wedding proposals aside, the team's skating has declined since their historic feat in 2006, by becoming the first pair to ever land a throw triple axel. The team has dropped the element from their program as of late, and may need it in order to attain one of only two Olympic berths granted to the United States in the pairs event. Citing last year's disappointment of finishing 3rd at nationals and being left off the world team, Inoue and Baldwin have made a coaching change to former U.S. Champions Jenni Meno and Todd Sand. Former U.S. bronze medalist Jenny Kirk is pessimistic about their coaching change, stating, "No matter what Meno and Sand do, I don't see them fixing this team's lackadaisical work ethic and giving Baldwin the 180-degree turnaround he needs." There seems to be quite a bit of truth to this statement, especially considering that Baldwin is seldom able to cleanly land his triple toe loop, which is all the more peculiar when considering that he could land triple axels in his singles days. Inoue and Baldwin have three creditable teams who they will be competing against for those Olympic spots, Keauna McLaughlin and Rockne Brubaker, Caydee Denney and Jeremy Barrett, and Brooke Castile and Benjamin Okolski. Inoue and Baldwin won't be required to transform into the Protopopovs to make the Olympic team, but they will need to show a fair amount of improvement from their performance at last year's U.S. Nationals. Not competing against any U.S. teams who could feasibly go to the Olympics in Paris, it would still help for political favor at U.S. Nationals for Inoue and Baldwin to perform well here, despite the fact that their chances to qualify to the Grand Prix Final are shabby at best.


Predicted Pairs Standings:

Gold: Aliona Savchenko/Robin Szolkowy (Germany)
Silver: Jessica Dube/Bryce Davidson (Canada)
Bronze: Maria Mukhortova/Maxim Trankov (Russia)
4th: Rena Inoue/John Baldwin (USA)
5th: Vanessa James/Yannick Bonheur (France)


Ice Dance




Madison Hubbell/Keiffer Hubbell (USA)

The brother and sister team of Madison and Keiffer Hubbell is coming off of a creditable 2008/2009 season, finishing 4th at U.S. Championships and at World Juniors, where they missed the opportunity to complete a U.S. medal sweep by a mere 0.46. Trophée Eric Bompard will mark the first time that the 2008 U.S. junior dance champions take to the ice in a senior international competition. The Hubbells are competing against two U.S. teams in Paris, who they will need to best at the 2010 U.S. Championships in order to be named to the Olympic team: Emily Samuelson and Evan Bates, and Kimberly Navarro and Brent Bommentre. Both teams bested the Hubbells at the 2009 U.S. Championships, and the prospects of the Hubbells beating one, let alone both, teams here and at the U.S. Championships are weak. The Hubbells need considerable time to improve aspects of their skating, such as extension, originality in their lifts and choreography, and skating closer together. Nonetheless, they should be a force for the Olympic team come 2014; however, with Meryl Davis/Charlie White and Samuelson/Bates likely to stick around into the next quadrennium, the Hubbells will be hard-pressed to become the premier team for U.S. ice dance.




Sinead Kerr/John Kerr (Great Britain)

A creative, expressive team, Sinead and John Kerr have been British national ice dance champions for the last six years, and have placed in the top eight at the last two World Championships. In January, the team became the winner of the bronze medal at Europeans, which was the first European medal attained by a British ice dance team since Jayne Torvill and Christopher Dean's European title in 1994. Sinead and John, 31 and 29 years of age, respectively, have steadily risen through the ranks at the six World Championships that they have competed in. Unfortunately, they are unlikely to reach the medals stand at a future World Championship/Olympic Games, as it is probable that their competitive skating careers are coming to an end. As far as placements are concerned for this event, the Kerrs should be looking at a bronze medal. It will be an almost insurmountable task to best Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir, and a fairly difficult one to beat Nathalie Pechalat and Fabien Bourzat, but besting the three American dance teams should be a realistic task to accomplish for the British.




Kimberly Navarro/Brent Bommentre (USA)

Navarro and Bommentre have been the U.S. bronze medalists for the last two years; however, they were unable to compete at Worlds last year because of Tanith Belbin and Ben Agosto's successful petition onto the team after they withdrew from nationals due to Agosto's back injury. Emily Samuelson and Evan Bates beat Navarro and Bommentre at this year's U.S. Championships by over five points, a significant margin in ice dance. Navarro and Bommentre are extremely generous and personable performers and are always fun to watch, but are lacking in terms of superior extension, posture, and do not have some of the more complex lifts and spins that one would see from other top teams. With Navarro and Bommentre skating at a later stage of their career and Samuleson and Bates at the beginning of theirs, USFSA would be inclined to give the latter the benefit of the doubt when it comes to determining the Olympic team because of the experience and international recognition Samuelson and Bates could gain by competing in Vancouver. Samuelson and Bates have not competed against Navarro and Bommentre much internationally, but Samuelson and Bates's score at 2009 Worlds (where they finished 11th) was nearly nine points ahead of Navarro and Bommentre's score in 2008 (where they finished 12th). Thus, it is likely that Samuelson and Bates will snatch the third Olympic spot for ice dance at Nationals, and it is equally as probable that they will beat Navarro and Bommentre at this Grand Prix.




Nathalie Pechalat and Fabien Bourzat (France)

Pechalat and Bourzat truly define the word "quirky" with their skating, with impressively innovative lifts and complex steps and choreography. The French progressed rapidly last season, going from 4th at Europeans to 5th at Worlds just two months later, where they beat current European champions and 2008 world bronze medalists Jana Khokhlova and Sergei Novitski of Russia. Staying in the top five come the Olympics will be extremely difficult, as 2008 world champions and fellow compatriots Isabelle Delobel and Olivier Schoenfelder return to the ice after Delobel's pregnancy. Pechalat and Bourzat are right up with the top teams technically, having received eight out of eight level 4s for their elements during their free dance in Los Angeles. Presentation wise, there is some room for improvement with expression, but those marks should boost over time with added reputation. Beating the Kerrs at Worlds after having lost to them at Europeans was also a big plus for Pechalat and Bourzat, and the French will certainly be looking to beat the British at this competition next week.




Emily Samuelson/Evan Bates (USA)

Samuelson and Bates have come a long way in a short period of time, finishing just outside the top 10 at their first world championship this year and winning their first U.S. senior dance medal. Samuelson and Bates' strongest portion of the competition is typically their free dance, where they were 9th in Los Angeles, and their weakest phase is generally the compulsory dance. The team's polish and extension is very impressive, but hopefully the Americans will debut a more original and dynamic free dance, which is scheduled to be to "Canto Della Terra" by Sarah Brightman and Andrea Bocelli, as their "Otonal" free dance last season did not fully stretch the team emotionally. Although Samuelson and Bates, who are 19 and 20, respectively, are extremely creditable skaters for being so young, they are keen on improving on all of their underlying weaknesses. They voiced that they are improving several areas of their skating in the off season in a Golden Skate interview, including their lifts, spins, and overall entertainment value. The strength this team further augments the excellent depth of U.S. ice dancing.



Tessa Virtue/Scott Moir (Canada)

Virtue and Moir were sidelined in the Grand Prix last season because of Virtue undergoing surgery for a rare leg condition where she could not expand and contract her muscles normally. The team came back to finish 2nd at Four Continents and controversially bested training partners Meryl Davis and Charlie White for the bronze medal at this year's World Championship. The Canadians won silver at Worlds in 2008, safely taking over the reign of Canada's top ice dance team,  formerly a position held by Marie-France Dubreil and Patrice Lauzon. Virtue and Moir will debut their new original dance, a flamenco piece called "Farrucas," and their new free dance to Gustav Mahler's dramatic "Symphony No. 5". It seems very likely that the three teams on the podium in Vancouver (assuming that no one is injured and that Dolobel comes back to full form after her pregnancy), will be Domnina/Shabalin, Dolobel/Schoenfelder, and a North American team. Since Virtue and Moir beat Davis and White on the latter's home turf at Worlds this year, Davis and White should not stand a significant threat to Virtue and Moir's potential spot on the podium, or at least not nearly as much as Belbin and Agosto. Belbin and Agosto easily finished ahead of Virtue and Moir in Los Angeles, and were ahead of them in all three phases of the competition, but Virtue and Moir have the advantage of the home crowd, and the judges were quick to rip Belbin and Agosto to shreds after Tanith fell in the compulsory dance of 2008 worlds. Whether Virtue and Moir will be able to medal at the Olympics will begin to be seen at this competition. Like Savchenko and Szolkowy, Virtue and Moir are not in much danger to lose this event, but wish to perform well to be scored highly and viewed favorably by the international judges.


Predicted Dance Standings:
Gold: Tessa Virtue/Scott Moir (Canada)
Silver: Nathalie Pechalat/Fabien Bourzat (France)
Bronze: Sinead Kerr/John Kerr (Great Britain)
4th: Emily Samuelson/Evan Bates (USA)
5th: Kimberly Navarro/Brent Bommentre (USA)
6th: Madison Hubbell/Keiffer Hubbell (USA)

Next post: Analysis of men and ladies to compete at TEB

That is all.

2009 Trophée Bompard Preview

There are six total Grand Prixs which are contested in six successive weeks in the fall prior to the final. Each skater or pair/dance team is assigned a maximum of two Grand Prixs, and those who have two Grand Prixs are the only ones with feasible chances to qualify to the Grand Prix Final. The top three finishers from last year's worlds do not compete at the same events, and the same is true for the 4th-6th place finishers. Other factors that determine whether a skater receives two Grand Prix assignments include ISU world ranking, season's best total from last year, and placement at last season's Worlds, Grand Prix Final, and Junior Grand Prix Final. Inevitably, the strength of the competition is greater at some events, particularly when skaters become injured and have to withdraw from a competition. Nonetheless, all events are weighted equally. There is a points system alotted to determine who will compete at the Grand Prix Final, set to take place in Tokyo this December. A first place finish receives 15 points, 2nd place 13 points, 3rd place 11 points, 4th place nine, 5th place seven, 6th place five, 7th place four, and 8th place three. The top six skaters or pair/dance teams in each discipline qualify to the final and all competitors enter the competition with a clean sleight.

The 2009 Trophée Bompard will be contested next week in Paris, France, and will serve as the first major competition of the season, with five world champions scheduled to compete. Although the skaters don't wish to be at their optimum at this time, they still want to be in good enough form to place at this competition, and preferably medal, so as to augment their chances of qualifying to the Grand Prix Final. While it is not the end of the earth if a skater doesn't qualify to the Final, it is of his own benefit to do so to allow for greater confidence and political backing at the skater's national championship and onward to the Olympic Games.

In the pairs event, current two-time world champions Aliona Savchenko and Robin Szolkowy of Germany are coming off of a victory at the Nebelhorn Trophy just two weeks ago. However, their shaky long program at that competition means there is much room for improvement at this competition, although looking at the competition it is unlikely the German pair will be defeated regardless of how they skate.

The 2007 world champion Brian Joubert will be competing at his home Grand Prix event for the 2nd straight year, and Joubert is hardly immune to nerves associated with a home crowd, finishing 4th at this event last year and suffering a defeat to relative unknown Florent Amodio at the French Masters competition just recently. Joubert will not be competing against Amodio at this competition, but should face tight competition from 2009 World Junior Champion Adam Rippon, 2008 European Champion Tomas Verner and compatriots Yannick Ponsero (2009 French Champion) and Alban Preaubert (2006 Grand Prix Finalist).

Canada's premier ice dance team, Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir, will be competing for the first time since last year's World Championships, where they edged training partners Meryl Davis and Charlie White by a mere .04. The Canadians were not present at the Grand Prix last season because Virtue underwent surgery on her legs after it was discovered that she has an unusual condition where her legs were unable to expand and contract normally. Virtue and Moir should have an easy victory at this event, although the French will be well represented by Nathalie Pechalat and Fabien Bourzat, who snuck into the top five at last year's World Championships.

The ladies event is often jokingly referred to as the "ladiezzzz event" by fans, but the competition will be anything other than a snooze fest in Paris, where the deepest ladies Grand Prix field among the six events will take the ice. Defending world champion Yu-Na Kim will face off her top rival, Japan's Mao Asada, while in the process debuting her new programs. Asada recently performed her long program at the Japan Open, but will debut her short program in Paris. Italy's Carolina Kostner is making her first competitive appearence since her nightmare free skate in Los Angeles, where she dropped from 5th place in the short program to 12th overall with a disastrous skate. Three-time Japanese world team member Yukari Nakano and current U.S. bronze medalist Caroline Zhang will also look to stir up the standings. The 2006 Olympic silver medalist, Sasha Cohen, was slated to have Trophée Eric Bompard be her return to competition, but she recently withdrew due to tendonitis in her right calf.

In my next post, I will breakdown of the competitiors who will be competing in each discipline, and my predictions as to where each skater will finish in Paris.

That is all.

"Video Replay = Artistry?" Returns

After a six-month hiatus during the off-season, I am now returning to blogging. I did a few analysis posts last season, but I am planning on updating my blog more frequently this year leading up to the Olympic Games. In addition to my preview analyses of competitions, I will also being doing live play-by-play commentary on whatever upcoming events I can do, and I will be doing more commentary of pairs and dance this season as well. I will aim to have my commentary in an objective manner, while still being thought provoking. If you wish to contact me with a comment, question, or concern, I am VRArtistry on Twitter and my email is jgrusk@hotmail.com.

Final Post of the Season

Unfortunately, I will be temporarily closing down this blog because the season, with the exception of the fairly inconsequential ISU Team Trophy coming up, has terminated. I will plan to post again in October 2009 when the Grand Prix series begins.

I was in attendance at the 2009 World Figure Skating Championships last week for the ladies short, dance free, and ladies free. As you all know the results and happenings of the competition, my own miscellaneous thoughts:

• Yu-Na Kim's performances, especially the SP, were magical. She owned the triple+triple combo and her overall presence was quite comparable to when Katarina Witt was skating. To see her skate well was not really a surprise, as during both the short and long program Kim nailed jump after jump in warm-up, with the exception of falling on the back-end of a triple flip+triple toe towards the end of her long program warm-up. The energy she brought to the ice during her short program was astounding, and had the audience in the palm of her hand throughout the entire skate. There was one moment before she took to her step sequence in the short where the audience cheered for her and her face just lit up; she was clearly having an incredible time out there. Her long was brilliant too, and while it was a wee bit disappointing not to see her go for broke and try the loop, I loved the Ina Bauer into the double axel with the spiral coming out of it. There was quite a bit of national pride at skate amongst the fans in the building; the Korean fans went absolutely nuts when Kim finished but a contingent of Japanese fans sitting behind me didn't even bother to stand after either program of Kim's.
• Joannie Rochette was wonderful, but it's a shame that her long, a performance I was really looking forward to, failed to live up to its potential. Her short was very elegant, especially with the beautiful spiral out of the double axel, and her very precise, nuanced choreography. I actually never witnessed her trying a triple lutz+triple toe in the short program warm-up, so I was surprised to see her stating in an article after the SP had concluded that she was planning on going for it in the competition. Her long warm-up was very good, but her skate was a bit tentative with two relatively major errors. I think what is most impressive about Joannie's skating is her great amplitude on her jumps, and the beautiful use of her arms and her back.
• Miki Ando did two flawless, rotated triple lutz+triple loops during warm-up for her SP, so it was a real shame to see that the one she did in competition was under rotated on the second jump. Miki looks far more impressive live than on TV, as she really has decent posture, great speed, and great height and ice coverage on her triple jumps. While I personally didn't care for her SP, her LP was excellent, and I don't just mean the jumps. While I usually find Miki's skating to revolve around the triple jumps, (BTW she never tried a quad salchow in warm-up), she had great facial expression and I thought her last step sequence was very dynamic and strong. She certainly didn't have the most difficult choreography, but she absolutely sold what she could out of that performance.
• Mao Asada probably had the most disciplined warm-ups of any of the ladies, trying triple jumps right and left. She looked good during her SP warm-up, landing triple flip+triple loop and a couple triple lutzes. Unfortunately, towards the end of the warm-up the lutz came away from her, stepping out of one attempt and doubling another. The latter mistake came back when she skated her program, but otherwise she was quite lovely. The thing that differentiates Mao so much from Kim is that she skates like no one is watching her, whereas Kim skates like she wants to bring the house down. Asada, while very beautiful, had a sense of predictability in her programs this year that made her less exciting to watch than Kim in my opinion. During the warm-up for her long, Mao landed two beautiful triple axels, both unquestionably rotated and cleanly landed. While her first 3A in her long was fine, she seemed to be too far back in the air to cleanly complete the second. While I don't despise her "Masquerade" long as some other fans do, I think that the major weakness of the program is Mao's absence of a slow section. The choreography is difficult, but unfortunately she makes it look difficult because she doesn't have any time to rest. Her step sequence was the best choreographic passage of the program; very dynamic, intricate, and it went with the music. Kim and Asada had no collisions or near-collisions during either warm-up; if anything Asada was intentionally avoiding Kim.
• Rachael Flatt's artistry is entirely in her face. What is lacking with her is that her arms are fairly stiff, and she holds a lot of tension in her shoulders and upper back, thus causing her to look shorter. It was particularly obvious in the short, when Joannie skated directly after Rachael, with Joannie having a really straight back and Rachael being more hunched over. With that said, Rachael was very wise to switch her long program back to last year's "Romantic Rhapsody" because that one had superior choreography and was a superior music choice as well. Rachael should absolutely be commended for her continued strength as a competitor, and her long program seemed to get stronger as it went. Her triple+triple is an area for concern, however, because she missed it both times in competition. She completed one 3/3 in the short program and long program warm-ups, but both times the triple toe was noticeably under rotated.
• Laura Lepisto has improved her artistry; I believe I noticed more emotion and presence than at Europeans and other previous competitions. Her weakness in presentation, like Flatt, is her relatively stiff arms. She landed a beautiful triple toe+triple toe during the SP warm-up but only did a triple toe+double toe during the competition. She has nice technique, and is a very clean skater who I will look forward to seeing more of in the future.
• Alena Leonova was most enjoyable to see. I was not a happy soul when she beat Caroline Zhang and Ashley Wagner for the world junior title, but all of that disappointment went away when I saw her short program. Sometimes, you just like to see a skater who isn't so technically polished, but really fights for everything and who clearly enjoys skating. She really just looked like she was at the World Championship for the first time and she was going to enjoy every bit of it. Her spirals and spin positions are unquestionably in need of improvement, but her jumps are quite solid (a slight exception being the lutz) and she reminded be quite a bit of Stephanie Rosenthal from 2006 Nationals in terms of her ability to show that she enjoys skating.
• Fumie Suguri's skating, sadly, made me wish Yukari Nakano had been there instead. While Suguri did skate with some palpable fire in her short program, her Otonal long program was quite a festival of boredom. However, technically she was pretty strong, and her soft landings to her jumps are absolutely one of the strongest points to her skating, and such a quality was something that not many of the other girls had. She and Ando came very late to the SP warm-up, and Suguri herself was marked with going overtime by a second during her SP. I was looking at the clock as Suguri finished her SP. She reached her ending pose at 2:50, but the clock strangely went on an extra second to 2:51, thus incurring a deduction for being overtime.
• It was great to see Sarah Meier back in action, and I thoroughly impressed at how steady and relatively fit she looked considering her injuries and lack of training time. She looked very solid throughout her warm-ups and competition skates, and I particularly enjoyed her long program (the same LP she did last year), which had a particularly nice step sequence.
• Elene Gedevanishvilli has great spark and energy to her skating, and had a particularly nice triple lutz and triple toe+triple toe combination in her long program. She has excellent speed, just needs to polish her positions and improve her consistency.
• Alissa Czisny looked excellent during the SP warm-up, not missing a thing. After her triple lutz+double toe in the short, I thought we were in for an excellent program until Czisny held on to her triple flip entrance edge way too long (and thus too close to the boards), and she tried to get her weight forward to compensate for the lack of room she had, thus ending up falling. Her long program warm-up was also strong, landing the triple toe+double toe+double toe that she didn't do in her actual skate. Czisny landed two clean triple lutz+double toe combinations in her long, in addition to a triple flip. Her triple loop was noticeably under rotated, and was rightfully downgraded. While Czisny is a very elegant skater, she really does lack speed in comparison with the top women. I think that could play a part into why her jumps are so wonky, considering that she often goes into her jumps with fairly slow and tentative entrances.
• According to Philip Hersh's latest article, Carolina Kostner was not injured and this is most surprising. Kostner really needs to invigorate her training habits, because in the warm-up for the long program, I looked at her fairly closely and never saw a triple+triple attempt or a triple lutz attempt. I also didn't see a triple+triple attempt during her short, although if I remember correctly she did do a clean lutz during the warm-up. Her PCS score of 58.48 for her long program was absolutely absurd, although thankfully inconsequential to the final outcome. I actually was very disappointed when Kostner skated so poorly in the long, because I find her "Dumky Trio" long to be very elegant, yet fiery.

Well, that will be all for now. Thank you for reading my blog and make sure to check back for frequent updates beginning in October for what should prove to be an exciting, dramatic Olympic season.
That is all.

2009 World Figure Skating Championships-Mens Preview Part II

Evan Lysacek (USA)



Expectations Going In: A two-time world bronze medalist, Lysacek suffered an arm injury as a result of a broken blade, which kept him out of this competition last year. A subsequently rough return to competition surfaced in October 2008, when lackluster skates, and programs packaged with "<"s, kept him down in 3rd place for both of his Grand Prix events, Skate America and Skate Canada. Failing to make the Grand Prix Final, Lysacek's struggles continued in the free skate at the U.S. Nationals, although a third place finish there secured what will be his 5th world team berth (including 2008). An impressive performance at the recent Four Continents Championships, where he finished 2nd, does put him firmly on the list of medal contenders at these World Championships.



Pros: The 6'2" Chicago native scored a personal best total at the 2009 Four Continents Championships, marking a 237.15. Such a score enabled Lysacek to finish ahead of Takahiko Kozuka and Jeremy Abbott, competitors that bested him earlier in the season. Also, his score at 4CCs would've been good enough to have won the 2009 European title by over five points. Lysacek's immense experience has taken him to two world medals, a fourth-place finish at the 2006 Olympics, two Four Continents titles, two U.S. National titles, and nine senior Grand Prix medals. Lysacek's long program, choreographically speaking, has improved tremendously from the beginning of the season, and Lysacek was able to achieve the second-highest PCS marks for both programs at 4CCs (behind Patrick Chan). Lysacek is also credited for his good work ethic and ability to deliver his best form under pressure.



Cons: Lysacek's issues with the quadruple toe loop jump have proven to be interminable; having only landed it once this season (being his quad at 4CCs, which many felt was under rotated). Lysacek has jettisoned the jump from his short program, a wise move, but his attempting of the jump at this season's Skate America and U.S. Nationals proved instrumental in costing him the title at both events. An under rotated quad will be graded as a triple, thus deflating the value of the jump from a 9.8 to a 4.0. A fall will mean a -3 GOE is necessary, and when you include an additional -1.00 deduction for a fall the element essentially receives nothing. Also of note is that it hasn't just been the quad that has given Lysacek issues. His peculiar, and shaky, entrance technique on his triple axel has lead him to receive downgrades on that jump at Skate America, Skate Canada, and at the Four Continents Championships. Lysacek doesn't skate with especially soft, deep knees, which is not only an impediment to some of his PCS marks, but is also potentially harmful to his body when it comes to jump landings.



Outlook: Lysacek's intelligent composition of his programs, specifically when it comes to placing difficult jump combinations after the half-way point and racking up points on non-jump elements, provides a sly manner to one-up his competitors to get himself a third World Championship medal. While his experience is noteworthy, Lysacek cannot revert back to his longtime experience of under rotating jumps, thus losing him valuable points that are not to be lost if he is looking for a podium finish. Many skating aficionados were skeptical over Lysacek's chances just to make the world team, but now he is seen as a legitimate contender for the podium. The problem is such that Lysacek is feverish over his desire to win a world and Olympic gold, and the highest he has placed at either competition is 3rd. Completing such an arduous task would require a brilliant skate, such as his overall showing at 2007 U.S. Nationals, and/or mistakes from other top contenders. In Los Angeles, however, a medal should realistically suffice Evan's expectations. Competing at his first World Championship in his home country, and near his training base in El Segundo, California, means that Lysacek will be unlikely to disappoint at the 2009 World Figure Skating Championships.




Brandon Mroz (USA)



Expectations Going In: Only 18-years-old, Mroz will face by far the biggest task of his career at the upcoming World Championships, having just started competing on the senior level this season. Mroz had a solid, yet unremarkable Grand Prix season, placing 7th at Skate Canada and 5th at Trophee Eric Bompard. Mroz would have been just satified with making the junior world team, but a brilliant performance at the U.S. Nationals placed him 2nd, and was named to the world team. Mroz skated well at the Four Continents Championships in the short, but broke his consistency in the long, dropping from 5th to 8th.



Pros: Mroz had the highest combined total (of both programs) at the U.S. Nationals when it came to TES. Mroz has a technically ambitious long program, attempting a quadruple toe loop and eight other triples, including a triple lutz+triple toe combination after the half-way point of his program, which garners 11 points. The 18-year-old St. Louis native scored slightly higher in his short program at the Four Continents (75.05) than he did at U.S. Nationals (74.88), despite the fact that his U.S. Nationals was a tad bit superior technically. Mroz has rotated his quad four out of four times this season, and the only jump he has received a downgrade on since competing on the senior level is his triple axel. Fully capable of taking off from the correct edge on both his lutz and flip, Mroz was also touted for his presentation by NBC commentator and choreographer Sandra Bezic, pointing out that "It is really obvious here that Brandon is paying attention to the choreography; working with the music" and that "[Brandon] is mature beyond his years."



Cons: Mroz has not broken 200 internationally, as his personal best, recorded at the 2009 Four Continents Championships, lies at a 196.78. His long program at that competition was unsettled, as he received downgrades on both of his axels, falling on the second one. In addition, Brandon received -GOEs on six out of 13 elements in that program, and his total PCS score was only a 63.10, the 8th highest of the day. Although Mroz is generally not prone to wrong-edge deductions, he does have a tendency to switch to the outside edge for his triple flip, and was penalized for it during the short at Trophee Eric Bompard and the long at the Four Continents Championships. Mroz's personal best in the long program (internationally), a 130.64, is the lowest among the men featured in this post. Mroz doesn't have particularly astounding spins or footwork, putting all the more pressure on his somewhat inconsistent jumps.



Outlook: While creating my men's analysis post for the U.S. Nationals, I suggested that "Brandon is hardly in contention for the world team." I strongly considered to be brusque for a change, instead saying, "Brandon has no chance for the world team." But I opted against it, as you never know with the sport of figure skating, and I'm certainly glad I did. Mroz is set to compete at his first World Championships, while looking to fend off comments that his performance at U.S. Nationals was merely a fluke and that his opportunity to compete in Los Angeles is deserved. Having had an unsteady track record, Mroz is capable of delivering all of the goods if he is at his peak, just as he was at U.S. Nationals. Having training partners Jeremy Abbott and Rachael Flatt, who will also be going to worlds, should certainly help Mroz to push the boundaries of his skating level at the Staples Center. Jeremy Abbott and Evan Lysacek are fully capable of placing high enough to get three spots. However, just in case if one is to get injured the day of the short program and is required to withdraw, Mroz already has cleared a hurdle, being that his world ranking enables him to sneak into the prized last two groups for the short program. As far as final standings are concerned, Mroz could feasibly finish in the top 6 if he skates like he did at Nationals, or well below the top 10 if inexperience is to serve him poorly.





Nobunari Oda (Japan)

Expectations Going In: Oda has had brilliant potential throughout his career, but has often failed to live up to it with his own mistakes in skating, and in life. After failing to make the Olympic team and coming just shy of a medal at the 2006 World Championships, Oda was arrested by Osaka police in July 2007 for driving his moped while intoxicated. The Japanese Skating Federation was hardly forgiving of the matter, banning Oda from all subsequent competitions he was scheduled to compete in that year, among other things. Opting out of competing at the 2008 Japanese Nationals and 2008 World Championships, Oda signaled his return to competition at the 2008 NHK Trophy, where he finished 1st. Oda fared worse at his next international competition, the Four Continents Championships, finishing 4th. Thus, he is considered a solid, but beatable, medal threat for these World Championships.



Pros: Oda has the 4th highest seasons best total, recorded at the 2008 NHK Trophy, despite having flawed landings on three of his jumping passes in the long. Capable of executing all of his elements with notable quality, Oda often marks +1 and +2 GOEs for his jumps, spins, and footwork sequences. Lauded for his soft knees, ice coverage, and skating skills, Oda marked an impressive 77.40 for PCS in his long program at this season's NHK Trophy. The current Japanese champion has a quadruple toe loop in his arsenal, and has a jumping pass of a triple flip+triple toe loop+double loop after the half-way point of his long, thus garnering a base value of 12.10 points for a single jumping pass. Oda did not receive anything lower than a level three for any of his non-jump elements at Four Continents, and was able to defeat compatriot Takahiko Kozuka at this year's Japanese Nationals with room to spare.



Cons: Dick Button was always to quick to say the line, "Don't leave it out on the warm-up ice." Oda appears to be in serious need of taking this statement to heart, as at the 2009 Four Continents Championships he was reported to have been skating brilliantly in practices, and was shown landing a clean quadruple toe loop+triple toe loop combination during the warm-up for his free skate. Unfortunately, errors in both programs at that competition, including falling and under rotating his quad, kept Oda off the podium. Oda's lack of transitional elements and expression have hurt him in terms of PCS marks, which came to play at Four Continents, where his PCS score in the long program dropped 6.8 points from where it was at the NHK Trophy. What was even more interesting about this was the fact that Oda's technical mark at NHK was only 1.78 points better, and since the shift of TES and PCS scores often correlate, this does not bode well for how Oda will be scored at these World Championships. Last but not least, Nobunari's inability to be savvy with the current judging system has cost him an Olympic berth, and a world bronze medal.



Outlook: Oda's exorbitant error of doing too many jumping passes in the long program seems to be an old habit of his that will not surface again, but one must remember that Oda committed these costly mistakes during pressure situations in major competitions, including the 2006 Japanese Nationals, 2006 World Championships, and 2007 World Championships. Although not as detrimental of an error, Oda's problems with the code continued during the long program at this year's NHK Trophy, when he didn't tack on a double toe after his second triple axel, which was cleanly landed. He had not done a combination for his first axel, and because he repeated the jump without tacking on a combination, the second triple axel was only given 80% of its original value. Although he still won the event there, small mistakes like that can feasibly make the difference between gold and no medal at all at this competition. Oda's drop in PCS marks is alarming for his medal chances in L.A., but he does have all the technical goods to finish on the podium. In order to augment his medal chances, Oda will primarily need to cover his ability to land his jumps consistently, fine-tune his expression and transitions, and to leap at points whenever he is able to receive them.





Kevin van der Perren (Belgium)



Expectations Going In: At 26-years-old, van der Perren will be making his 8th trip to the World Figure Skating Championships, although this will only be his second time to compete at this event in the last four seasons. Winner of the bronze medal at the 2007 and 2008 European Championships by exceptionally meager margins (.07 and .06, respectively), van der Perren will be one of only two skaters to represent Belgium at these worlds, with the other being Isabelle Pieman. Despite having an excellent quadruple toe loop and very suspended triple jumps in the air, van der Perren has been unable to reach the top tier of male figure skaters at very many points in his career. This has not been helped by the fact that van der Perren suffered a hip injury after the 2006 Olympics, having surgery on it following the conclusion of the 2008 World Championships.



Pros: While winning the bronze medals at the 2007 and 2009 European Championships, his preparation that preceded his skates at those events was, in both cases, tumultuous. In 2007, van der Perren was suffering from his aforementioned hip injury, and in 2009 was battling a virus, and yet in both cases he was able to fight and medal. Among the elements in his bag of tricks are a quadruple toe loop, an improved triple axel, as well as all of the other triple jumps. He also performs an extremely difficult triple salchow+triple toe+triple loop after the half-way point of his long program, which received an eye-popping 15.25 points during the long program at the 2009 Europeans. Van der Perren placed an impressive 6th at last year's World Championships, while also placing 3rd in the long program. The first Belgian skater to win a European figure skating medal since 1947, this fact is supported by Kevin's ability to rotate his jumps consistently and to avoid wrong-edge penalties.



Cons: Van der Perren's personal best in the long program is only a 145.78, which was recorded for an essentially error-free skate. Van der Perren's non-jump elements are comparatively weak against his fellow competitors, as reiterated by the judges when van der Perren received three level 1s at last year's worlds and one level 1 at this year's Europeans. Van der Perren has yet to break 70 internationally in terms of PCS marks, scoring an indifferent 66.70 during his long program at Europeans. His lower PCS marks are largely a reflection of van der Perren's weak transitions and skating skills, and areas in his programs where he is moving his body, but not actually skating. Having only competed twice this season, van der Perren seems to have abandoned his quadruple toe loop from his jumping repertoire, despite its increase in value. The last time he attempted the jump was at the 2008 Europeans, and he also backed off from trying a second triple axel during his long at this year's Europeans.



Outlook: Although van der Perren scored a very respectable 76.86 for TES during the long at Europeans (also the second highest TES score of the day), van der Perren has room for improvement when it comes to the content of his long program. With nothing to lose in regards to getting a medal or attaining a certain number of Olympic berths next year, if he is healthy, van der Perren would be astute to bring back his quadruple toe loop into his jump layout for the long program. Such a change could be made reasonably by van der Perren subbing in his quad for what was his double axel at Europeans, thereby gathering 6.3 more points by upgrading just one jumping pass. Interestingly enough, the World Championships really isn't the greatest pressure event in van der Perren's season, instead it is European Championships. This is based on the reasoning that he can feasibly medal at Europeans, but unfortunately not at worlds. However, looking back to his surprisingly high finish at this event last year, he may just be inclined to perform better without that added pressure.

Yannick Ponsero (France)

Expectations Going In: Ponsero will be making his third trip to the World Figure Skating Championships this March, having placed 14th in 2007 and 18th in 2008. Having placed 12th at the European Figure Skating Championships for the last two years, Ponsero came strikingly close to the podium this year, missing the bronze medal by the microscopic margin of .06. Having had a decent Grand Prix season, placing 4th at Skate Canada and 3rd at the NHK Trophy, Ponsero won his first French title this year with the absence of defending champion Brian Joubert. Ponsero's inability to put together two clean programs in a single competition makes a placement around 7th-12th the most probable.

Pros: When in the zone, Ponsero's jumps are brilliant. The 22-year-old Annecy native received a +2 GOE for his quad at Europeans, a mark that no other skater has achieved for a quadruple jump in an ISU judged event (besides Evgeni Plushenko). The combined total of Ponsero's personal best scores of 78.05 (SP, 2008 Skate Canada) and 151.85 (FS, 2009 Europeans) would have easily been good enough to have won bronze at last year's World Championships. Ponsero was the winner of the short program at Skate Canada and the long program at Europeans, and has fully-rotated eight out of eight quad attempts this season. Ponsero also garners inordinate GOEs for his triple axels when completed to his potential, and sticks all of his combination jumping passes after the half-way point of his long program, thus accumulating additional bonus points.

Cons: Despite skating nearly the best he was capable of during the free at Europeans, Ponsero barely broke 70 points in PCS marks under a lenient panel, and his score of 151.85 in the long is below the seasons best scores of Chan (160.29), Abbott (159.46), Lysacek (155.50), Oda (154.55), and Kozuka (153.78). Ponsero has delivered relatively poor performances the last two years he has competed at this championship, and issues with nerves cost him a medal at this season's Skate Canada, after a flawed free skate dropped him from 1st to 4th. Issues were present with his short program at this year's French Nationals (being downgraded on the back-end of his quad-triple combination; doubling his axel) and at this year's Europeans (doubling his lutz). A flawed short program in Los Angeles would put Ponsero in an earlier group in the free skate, thus deflating his potential to score highly in an early skating position. Ponsero does not have a triple flip in his current jumping repertoire and repeats one of the easier triples, the salchow, twice in his free skate.



Outlook: Ponsero could stand to improve his transitional choreography, musicality, and overall consistency. However, brilliant speed and potentially opulent jumps could definitely shoot him into the top 10 when all is said and done. Ponsero's poor showing last year means that France will only be sending two men (Joubert and Ponsero) to these World Championships. With Joubert's uneven season and his recent injury, Ponsero could have much less breathing room than he would like to place high enough for France to get three Olympic berths for next year. Skaters like Vaughn Chipeur, Samuel Contesti, Brandon Mroz, Kevin van der Perren, and Tomas Verner will likely have the biggest say over where Ponsero is to place at this event, but a top 8 finish from Yannick should secure three Olympic berths easily. While France is not overly dependent on getting a third Olympic berth, Ponsero's performance in Los Angeles could decide his fate for going to the Olympics, if he is to finish 3rd at French Nationals next year.




Tomas Verner (Czech Republic)

Expectations Going In: At times brilliant and at times humiliating, Verner's immense inconsistency has taken him from not making it out of qualifying at this event in 2005 to winning the European title in 2008. His highest finish at a World Championship was 4th in 2007, but the following year dropped to 15th. Verner's inconsistency has continued this season; after placing 2nd at Cup of Russia and finishing ahead of Jeremy Abbott, Verner finished 4th at the Grand Prix Final and 6th at Europeans. Verner has the technical and artistic goods to actually vie for a medal in Los Angeles, but his inability to stay clean throughout a competition makes him the ultimate wildcard.

Pros: Verner's personal best total of 232.67, recorded at the 2008 European Championships, would have won him silver at last year's World Championships. Verner's personal best score of 81.45 for his short program, recorded at the 2009 Europeans, is an extremely desirable score internationally, especially when one considers that he only did a triple toe+triple toe as his combination jumping pass. Not expected to be a medal threat at the 2007 World Championships, out of nowhere Verner unleashed an exceptional free skate, complete with two clean quadruple toe loops. He would finish the night in 4th place, while beating established names like Evan Lysacek, Jeffrey Buttle, and Johnny Weir. Always known to be a top-notch jumper and spinner, Verner has made applaudable improvement in his artistry, especially this season with a very mature, intricate new long program to music selections by Astor Piazolla and Matos Rodriguez.

Cons: Verner's colossal tendency to pop his jumps came to light specifically at both the 2008 World Championships and the 2009 European Championships. Three popped jumps, in addition to a fall, during his free at 2008 worlds kept him down in 20th place for the free skate, and 15th overall. During the free at the 2009 Europeans, a great skate from Verner could have met with gold. However, three popped jumps in the free, and an under rotated and two-footed quad, kept Verner down in 6th place overall. A single jump is more costly than a rotated jump with a fall, as for example a triple lutz with a fall receives three points (two points counting the one point deduction for falls) and a single lutz receives only 0.6. Both of these poor skates came after good short programs, and Verner's stellar long at 2007 Worlds came after a flawed short program. Verner has not broken 15o in the free skate thus far this season, and frecuently incurs an "e" wrong-edge deduction for his triple flip.

Outlook: The dark horse of this championship, Verner has good vehicles in terms of choreography this season, but it is unfortunate that he is unable to drive them by landing his jumps consistently. The judges have been very appreciative of Verner's choreographic composition of his programs, particularly in his long program where he scored a 76.70 for PCS at Cup of Russia, a full six points ahead of what Jeremy Abbott marked at that event. Verner also marked a very solid 37.55 (PCS) for his short at Europeans, and still marked a 72.30 for his long despite an extremely flawed skate technically. The bottom line is that Verner has the tools handy for him to make a splash this March in Los Angeles. In spite of his inconsistency, the judges still support him, and he has all of the technical ingredients to use. It is entirely his option whether he wants to put all of those tools together to become the first Czech man to win a world medal since Ondrej Nepela in 1973, or to leave them in the dust and not even instigate any hope for such a scenario.

Podium Predictions

Gold: Patrick Chan (Canada)- Chan's focus on quality, as opposed to quantity, looks to be paying off. While stacking up on GOE marks for all of his elements, Chan's PCS marks have the potential to go through the roof, at a point where most of the other men cannot realistically achieve. Meeting expectations has been a struggle for Chan, particularly at this event last year, but given how he was judged at the Four Continents Championships he could have breathing room to spare in his quest to win his first world title.

Silver: Jeremy Abbott (USA)- Despite finishing off the podium at two events, Cup of Russia and Four Continents, Abbott has won three important titles this year, and his great overall skating should help propel him to a medal or possibly even gold. Competing in the United States will hopefully boost Jeremy's confidence and desire to skate well, and possibly inflate his marks slightly. His quad is of concern, however, considering that he has not even attempted the jump since this event last year and it could have the ability to drop Abbott far down in the standings if not completed successfully.

Bronze: Brian Joubert (France)- Joubert's medal chances for worlds don't look entirely promising with him finishing off the podium at Trophee Eric Bompard, his close victory at Europeans, and his subsequent knee injury. However, one would be a fool to count Joubert out, especially considering how well he has performed at this competition for the last three seasons. His jumps will decide a lot, and Joubert will really be required to max out his difficulty to fend off higher GOEs and PCS marks from skaters like Chan.

4th: Nobunari Oda (Japan)- Oda is another skater who can take advantage of high GOEs for all of his elements, and is also a skater who has a quad in his arsenal. However, his lower PCS marks at the Four Continents Championships, inconsistency, and past inability to maximize his scoring potential with the current judging system could all collide in front of his path toward the medals stand.

5th: Evan Lysacek (USA)- Lysacek's quadruple toe loop and triple axel have been unsteady elements for him all season long. Lysacek will really need clean skates to get himself a medal in Los Angeles, as the other aspects of his skating aren't strong enough to back him up if an error is to occur. Lysacek's experience and ability to peak at the most necessary times should provide him an advantage over many of his top rivals.

6th: Takahiko Kozuka (Japan)- Kozuka is a finely developing talent, but simply doesn't have enough riches in his skating to take a medal back home. Issues with his quadruple toe loop, second triple axel, and regressing PCS marks look to do the trick to keep Kozuka off the podium. However, his decent consistency will pay dividends if other skaters commit errors and provide him an open door to a top 3 finish.

7th: Tomas Verner (Czech Republic)- It seems unlikely, with the way his season is going, that Verner will be able to medal in Los Angeles. Perhaps that will actually help him, although it remains an ongoing failure on Verner's part to produce two clean skates at a major championship. However, his potential ability to score well makes sure that no one forgets about him when thinking about possible medal contenders for these World Championships.

8th: Samuel Contesti (Italy)- Contesti is enjoyable to watch, has good jumps, and has no pressure going into L.A. Skating the best he has in possibly his entire career, the current European silver medalist should be pleased if he is to finish top 10 in Los Angeles, which seems likely.

9th: Yannick Ponsero (France)- Inconsistent, but has made improvements in several aspects of his skating and has brilliant jumps when he is in the zone. Much like Verner, putting together two decent programs continues to be a large plague for Ponsero, but can score well in the event when he is to go clean.

10th: Brandon Mroz (USA)- Showed dramatic improvement from the Grand Prix series to the U.S. Nationals, and while his Four Continents short was very creditable, his long was shaky once again. Mroz at his peak form should finish in the top 10, but it remains to be seen how he will battle off the nerves of his first World Championship, or whether he will have any at all.

Next Post: Sasha Cohen's chances for a comeback

That is all.

2009 World Figure Skating Championships-Mens Preview Part I

It has been quite an uneasy journey for many of the men scheduled to compete at the 2009 World Figure Skating Championships, and it remains a feasible scenario that the results here may have little correlation to those of the XXI Olympiad. As the men take the ice for short program, none of the three medalists from the Turino 2006 Olympics will be in attendance. Before the start of the season, reigning world champion and Olympic bronze medalist Jeffrey Buttle of Canada decided to hang up his skates from international competition. Shortly thereafter, Stephane Lambiel, Switzerland's two-time world champion and Olympic silver medalist, opted to follow suit, citing that his body couldn't hold up to the demands of the new scoring system any longer. The gold medalist of those Games, Evgeni Plushenko, exited the world from skating upon the competition's conclusion, although recent comments on his part may mean that a comeback, exclusively for the 2010 Olympics, is imminent. The retirements of the two men that won three out of the last four world titles have subsequently caused outcries from many skating fans over the many extraneous and injury-prone elements that the new judging system has come to require. To further support this argument, based on who will be absent from roll call in L.A., Daisuke Takahashi suffered a knee injury back in October and subsequently announced his absence from competition for the entirety of the season. Further adding to list of absences at these world championships, American Johnny Weir, a skater with an enormous fan base worldwide, a world bronze medal, and three national titles was stunningly beaten to this championship by Brandon Mroz, a skater who didn't even win the junior level at nationals last year and who ranks 24th on the seasons best list.



Now enough with the negatives. Just because a few top skaters have moved on, are injured, or did not qualify, doesn't mean that the competition will suffer much in the least. Continuing a prosperous rise to the top, which just recently met with the Four Continents title, 18-year-old Patrick Chan will show off his brilliance in musicality, skating skills, and blissful jumping technique to attempt reaching the top step of the podium at his second World Championships. American Jeremy Abbott entered last year's worlds as the replacement to Evan Lysacek, with no pressure and no say as to who would medal. One year later, tremendous improvement has resulted in his first Grand Prix Final victory and U.S. National title. Could a world title be next? Abbott's fellow compatriot Evan Lysacek had a rough outing to the opening part of his season, placing 3rd at both Grand Prix events and at the U.S. Nationals. But rough no longer, he came back to take silver at Four Continents and poses as a prevalent threat for his first world championship medal since 2006. With Daisuke Takahashi out, Japan's medal hopes in this event lie in the steady hands of Takahiko Kozuka and Nobunari Oda, neither of whom has medaled at this event thus far. Last but not least, a deep and talented pool of European men is lead by current European and 2007 World Champion Brian Joubert of France, looking to take advantage of his confidence and content to stand at the top step of the podium for a second time.



Inside the Staples Center at the 2009 World Figure Skating Championships, there will be no "Battle of the Brians." There will be no dominant Russian man looking to see not if he is able to win, but by how wide of a margin. There will be no decided front-runner entering the competition. Instead, a widely talented and diverse group of men will take to the ice in what is expected to be a closely fought and unpredictable event. The easiest thing to predict is not of the championship itself, but rather what this championship will determine for the Olympic Games. Scott Hamilton continues to be the last skater who was able to take Olympic gold when coming into the Games as reigning world champion. Depending on how you look at it, the pressure with going into Vancouver for any of the men can be a detrimental, or perhaps even uplifting, task. But what is known is that coming into the Olympics as the reigning world champion has not proven to be a desirable opportunity, and given how slippery and unpredictable the ice is, it is possible that the winner of the Olympics won't even be in Los Angeles when the competition is taking place (e.g. Plushenko or Takahashi). However, for now, the 2009 World Figure Skating Championships are the daylight on every one's mind. On March 26th, 2009, one man will be crowned world champion, and will hold the title of 2009 World Figure Skating Champion forever.




Skaters Featured In Post



Jeremy Abbott (USA)
Patrick Chan (Canada)
Vaughn Chipeur (Canada)
Samuel Contesti (Italy)
Brian Joubert (France)
Takahiko Kozuka (Japan)


Evan Lysacek (USA)
Brandon Mroz (USA)
Nobunari Oda (Japan)
Yannick Ponsero (France)
Kevin Van Der Perren (Belgium)
Tomas Verner (Czech Republic)

Skaters in red are featured in part 1 of post.

Skaters in blue are featured in part 2 of post.

Jeremy Abbott (USA)

Expectations Going In: Having a breakthrough season, Abbott has scored victories at Cup of China, the Grand Prix Final, and the U.S. National Championships this season, thus establishing himself as one of the world's top male figure skaters. Despite his notable emergence from the shadows of others, Abbott has still proven to be vulnerable this year, finishing off the podium at Cup of Russia and at his most recent competition, the Four Continents Championships.

Pros: Strong in every department of his skating, the current U.S. National Champion has made resounding improvement in his jumps, notably his triple axel. Out of 15 triple axel attempts this season, 14 have been credited with a +GOE, and at last year's worlds Abbott landed the quadruple toe loop in both programs. Lauded for his innovative and musical choreography, Abbott kills two birds with one stone by incorporating unique and difficult linking steps in and out of his jumps, thereby enhancing the potential GOE mark for the jump and augmenting his PCS marks; specifically transitions and choreography. Abbott has not suffered a fall on any of his elements in competition this season, excluding the Four Continents Championships where he was ill. The current Grand Prix Final Champion is also strategic with taking advantage of his stamina to do difficult triple-triple combinations (triple axel+triple toe or triple lutz+triple toe+double toe) after the half-way point, which get hefty bonus marks.

Cons: Although Abbott has made excellent improvements in his skating and his overall competitive nature, he still cannot be considered a rock. At the 2008 Cup of Russia, Abbott finished off the podium, singling his lutz and falling on a combination spin in the short en route to finishing behind Alban Preaubert of France, who didn't even qualify to worlds. Although ill and tired at the Four Continents Championships, his most recent competition, it is interesting that the triple lutz, not the comparatively more difficult triple axel or triple-triple combination, gave him the most trouble with two falls. During the long program at this year's U.S. Nationals, Jeremy was placed with the unenviable task of leading after the short and skating last. There, a somewhat cautious free with no quad, a single loop, and a hand down on his double axel+triple toe combination was enough for the title, but such errors are unlikely to suffice for a world title or even a medal. Abbott has not landed, or even attempted, (unless if you count his try at 4CCs which turned to a double toe) the quad since last year's worlds.

Outlook: The good news is that Abbott has had not one, but two, (COC and GPF) competitions under his belt where he essentially skated flawlessly in both programs. The bad news is that Abbott has had not one, but two, (COR and 4CCs) competitions where he has skated far below his potential and has wound up off the podium with many of the top male figure skaters absent from both of those events. Tom Zakrajsek, Jeremy's main coach, seems to be skillful when it comes to peaking skaters when they are in most need of it. For example, Jeremy Abbott, Rachael Flatt, and Brandon Mroz, all Zakrajsek pupils, performed brilliantly at this year's U.S. Nationals. However, none of the three could reiterate that statement about their Four Continents showing, but remember no one wants to be arriving at 4CCs in their best shape ever. Abbott had an eye-opening introduction to the World Figure Skating Championships last year, finishing 11th. With the second highest season's best score of 2008/2009, Abbott has proven to be worthy of a world championship medal with all of the skills deserving of it. However, there are several pros and cons to competing his inconsistent quad at this competition, ranging from being able to win the world title to finishing too low to secure three American mens berths for the Olympics. The best course of action could be to decide after his short whether to go for it. If he does a clean short, secures a spot in the final group and preferably is in the top three heading into the free skate, he should go for broke in the long. However, if a flawed short is to stroll down his path he should leave the quad at bay, opting to skate cleanly and finish respectably, thus not putting any threats on the American men securing three Olympic spots (although the scenario of losing three Olympic spots is very unlikely).

Patrick Chan (Canada)

Expectations Going In: Although there is no clear favorite for the title, four gold medals this season, including convincing victories at the Canadian Nationals and the Four Continents Championships, do make Chan the closest there is to a favorite. Chan's artistry and great quality to his skating are unreservedly rewarded by the international judges, however his 9th place finish last year raises concerns over his ability to deliver the goods when they are most desired.

Pros: A world junior silver medalist in 2007, Chan's transformation into one of the world's finest male figure skaters is largely evidenced by the quality and precision of his elements. Among the three men that have competed in five major competitions this year (the others being Abbott and Kozuka), Chan has the highest total average score of 232.54, to Abbott's 229.494 and Kozuka's 225.858. At the 2009 Four Continents Championships, Chan did not receive a single -GOE for any of his elements, and racked up a total of 23.4 points (9.9 in the short and 13.5 in the long) for grade of execution at that competition. Armed with regal step sequences, fine musicality, and improved consistency on his triple axel jump, Chan's superb GOEs are aided by his difficult transitions prior to the entrances of his jumps. Chan's musicality, edge quality and old-school skating style are touted by fans and judges alike.

Cons: Chan has never attempted a quadruple jump of any kind in competition, much less landed it. Weak competitions at this season's Skate Canada, Grand Prix Final, and last year's World Figure Skating Championships have caused many to question whether the 18-year-old Ottawa native is ready to withstand the pressure of attempting to become a world champion, and one year from now an Olympic champion. Chan has not done an entirely clean long program in competition since January 2008 at the Canadian Nationals, and has only landed two triple axels in his long program once in his career thus far. It is of nearly unanimous agreement amongst skating fans that Patrick's marks at Four Continents, where he set the highest total recorded internationally this season, were noticeably inflated. Chan has made some very unenviable mistakes in the past, with one obvious example occuring this season. At the Canadian Nationals, Chan intended to do a triple flip+triple toe, but ended up falling out of a double flip and jettisoned the triple toe entirely.

Outlook: If we were to take results from the Four Continents and European Championships this season to predict who will win at worlds, Patrick Chan would be the certain front-runner. Although not a particularly expressive skater, Chan's opulent skating skills, transitions, and step sequences earn him enviable PCS marks, particularly in the long program. Chan broke 80 with his PCS score during the long at the recent Four Continents Championships, a feat unmatched by any other male skater this season (in international competition). Never mind the fact that Chan has no quad; he can make that up with scoring through the roof for all of his other elements in terms of GOE, as well as scoring highly for PCS. It is unfortunately no accident that not one of the four Canadian men who had the honor of winning the world figure skating title: Brian Orser, Kurt Browning, Elvis Stojko, and Jeffrey Buttle, was able to experience the even greater honor of winning Olympic gold. Chan is entirely capable of taking his first world title in Los Angeles, but it is by no means a requirement for him to do so. As history has proven, winning could actually be a detriment, especially considering that the Olympics will be in his home country.

Vaughn Chipeur (Canada)

Expectations Going In: Making his first trip to the World Figure Skating Championships, Chipeur had an abominable start to his season, where he finished 12th out of 12 skaters at Cup of Russia, barely breaking 100 points in the free skate. A reinvented Chipeur arrived at the Canadian Nationals and finished 2nd, and skated arguably his best ever at the recent Four Continents Championships, finishing 6th against a competitive field. His primary task of duty for the world championships will be to help Patrick Chan secure three Canadian men's berths for the XXI Olympiad, and if Chan medals Chipeur will need a top 10 finish to do so.

Pros: The 24-year-old Lloydminster native has extraordinary amplitude and distance on all of his jumps, thus causing him to avoid under rotating. Landing eight triples in the free skate at the recent Four Continents Championships and beating Jeremy Abbott in that phase of the competition, Chipeur was also the owner of the second highest TES score (80.71) recorded that day. Immune from wrong-edge deductions, Vaughn takes advantage of his strength technically to receive level 3s and 4s for his spins and footwork, and is capable of getting GOEs at or above +1 for all of his jumping passes. Outside of the technical elements, Chipeur is credited for his good speed and overall athleticism on the ice.

Cons: Despite having a clean long program at the Four Continents Championships, Chipeur was the recipient of a PCS mark of 64.10, a score nine points lower than what Jeremy Abbott received for a flawed performance. Chipeur's PCS mark was also just over two points lower than fellow compatriot Jeremy Ten, who has just started to compete internationally on the senior level this season. With a somewhat rough, unpolished style, Chipeur is particularly hit on the PCS marks of transitions and choreography. With rough outings at this season's Cup of China and especially Cup of Russia, Chipeur was unable to break 135 for a relatively shaky long at the Canadian Nationals that was judged under a very lenient panel. Having never competed at a world championship, Chipeur's experience is limited to Grand Prix events, Canadian Nationals, and two Four Continents Championships.

Outlook: Right off the bat, Chipeur is at a disadvantage, which he essentially created for himself. His poor results at the beginning of the season and at other past competitions mean that, barring several injuries, he will not be in the final two groups for the short program. While this may not seem like such a large complication, it is such because Chipeur is not prone to receiving high PCS marks to begin with, and an earlier group will further intensify the problem. However, Chipeur has the capability to place in the top 10 if he skates like he did at the Four Continents Championships, which, as aforementioned, should do the trick to get three Olympic berths for Canada next year. In a sense, Chipeur's performance here could dictate whether he gets an Olympic berth or not, as that third place could very well be his to take or leave one year from now.

Samuel Contesti (Italy)

Expectations Going In: Although a relative unknown, the Le Havre, France native has had a very interesting, if not disappointing, career thus far. Formerly competing for France, he made the 2005 world championship team, missing the cut to make the free skate and finishing in 26th place. Failing to make the Olympic team, in spite of finishing 2nd at French Nationals, he switched to competing for Italy shortly thereafter. At 26-years-old, Contesti has been coming into his own as of late, having won the last two Italian national titles and the European silver medal this year. Contesti is at best considered a dark horse medal threat for these World Championships.

Pros: A quirky, expressive skater, Contesti is coached by Peter Grutter, Stephane Lambiel's former coach. Taking the silver medal at the 2009 European Championships, he placed third in the short program there despite skating much earlier than most of his top counterparts. Masterful with his jumping technique, Contesti received no downgrades or wrong-edge deductions for any of his jumping passes at Europeans. At that same competition, the reigning Italian champion received only one -GOE, and six out of his 10 non-jump elements were graded a level four by the technical panel. With many not regarding him as a top threat in L.A., and with the bulk of Italian figure skating expectations on Carolina Kostner, Contesti will be pleased to have little expectation on him when he enters the Staples Center.

Cons: Contesti's lack of speed and fairly simplistic choreography impede his PCS marks, scoring only 32.05 in the short and 68.20 in the long at Europeans this year. Contesti's only world or Olympic appearence as a skater terminated him in 26th place, and he has only competed in two Grand Prix events during his entire career. Absent from the Grand Prix series this season, his ability to be scored favorably by the judges, particularly in terms of PCS, will likely be hampered. This is because of Contesti's low world ranking, which will require him skate earlier in the line up and not in the coveted final two groups during the short program. Contesti has no quad in his arsenal, and repeats the comparatively easier double axel twice in his long program. In addition, Samuel was unable to break 145 in the free skate at the 2009 Europeans, despite his only error being a double lutz instead of a triple and being judged under a fairly obliging panel.

Outlook: Contesti's meteoric improvement has been tremendously visible in his recent success, and he will enter these World Championships with no pressure of getting Italy a certain number of mens spots during the Olympics, and no pressure of medaling. To truly make an impact in terms of how a top five placement is concerned, Contesti would be grateful to make the final group. Such a task will be difficult, however, because skaters like Abbott, Chan, Joubert, Kozuka, Lysacek, Oda, and Verner are all capable of coming close to or breaking 80 points in the short, whereas Ponsero's personal best internationally is just over 75 for a clean program. If the tall, 5'11" skater is able to keep up his recent solidity at competitions like the Italian Nationals and Europeans this year, he should be well within the mix to finish top 10 in Los Angeles.

Brian Joubert (France)

Expectations Going In: The only former world champion taking part at this championship, Joubert has had a stellar record at worlds with one gold (2007) and three silver (2004, 2006, 2008). Despite this, Joubert has not had a stellar season by his standards, finishing off the podium at Trophee Eric Bompard and withdrawing from the free skate of the Grand Prix Final. Although he took back his European title, his status for the World Championships remains in question because he has reportedly been suffering from a knee injury.

Pros: Capable of landing three quads in one program, Joubert is arguably the finest jumper in the world. The three-time European champion has made considerable improvement in his spins, footwork, and artistry over the past several seasons and has arrived at the World Figure Skating Championships near his peak for the last three years. Joubert recently broke his personal best for the short (now an 86.90) at Europeans, and is one of the only top men who does consistently attempt a quadruple jump in the short program. Known for his self-confidence and panache, Joubert will be entering his 8th world championship this year with plenty of experience to draw upon.

Cons: Despite the fact that Joubert could do a quadruple jump in his sleep, he cannot take off from an inside edge on his triple flip to save his life, often receiving an "e" wrong-edge penalty for that particular jump. Four out of 10 of Brian's non-jump elements at Europeans were graded at a level two, and he recorded a seasons best total of 232.01 at that competition, which would've only sufficed for a bronze medal at the Four Continents Championships. Brian's highest score in the long program this season is a 147.38, a far cry from the seasons bests in the long for Chan (160.29) and Abbott (159.46). However, the biggest concern for Joubert heading into these World Championships is that he recently aquired a knee injury while practicing a spin. Since this is his landing knee that was injured, his jumping advantage may be downsized when he comes to compete in Los Angeles.

Outlook: Joubert, currently 24, should by now be fully aware of what it takes to win at such a prestigious competition given all of his experience, triumphs, and disappointments. Joubert stated that he has been training religiously to improve to the form necessary of winning a world title, but his knee injury has placed itself as a roadblock for the journey to winning a second world title. Brian appears to be sticking with the plan of attempting just one quad in the long program, but he may need to pull out all of his technical jewels to remain competitive. His personal best in the long program at 2006 Cup of Russia, which contained three quads, is actually lower than Patrick Chan's personal best with no quad and only one triple axel. With that said, Joubert does still have all the ingredients for a massive score. His PCS marks, not always considered his strength, were actually higher than Jeffrey Buttle's in the long at last year's worlds, and won the silver medal there after having not had an especially great season beforehand. Joubert's competitiveness hasn't failed him at the World Championships since 2005, and that competitiveness is perhaps his greatest virtue as a skater.

Takahiko Kozuka (Japan)

Expectations Going In: Despite Daisuke Takahashi's absence, the strength of the Japanese men remains intact with the breakthrough talent of Takahiko Kozuka, winner of the silver medal at the Grand Prix Final and the gold medal at Skate America this season. Despite having medaled at every competition he has been in this season, he is not seen by many to be the top Japanese man entering these World Championships. Many feel that Nobunari Oda, who beat Kozuka at Japanese Nationals, has a more definite chance of a medal.

Pros: Kozuka is exalted for his fine skating skills, cat-like jump landings, and good musicality. Having medaled at five out of five competitions this year, Kozuka has already beaten skaters such as Abbott, Chan, Joubert, Lysacek, and Oda in competition. Kozuka scored nearly 84 points in his short program at the Grand Prix Final and also marked a very creditable 153.78 for his free skate at the Trophee Eric Bompard, a score he received despite falling and under rotating his quadruple toe loop. Kozuka was a participant at this competition last year, where he finished a respectable 8th. A polished, old-school skater, Kozuka takes advantage of the quality of his elements to get high GOEs, thus racking up a very competitive TES score.

Cons: Kozuka has not landed the quadruple toe loop jump once in competition, and actually the first time he was even credited with rotating the jump was at the recent Four Continents Championships. Despite skating solid programs technically, in regards to PCS Kozuka only marked a 33.80 in the short and a 70.60 in the long at 4CCs, with those PCS marks being his lowest of the season for both programs. The current Japanese silver medalist has also struggled with his 2nd triple axel late in his long program throughout this season, and has also been criticized for his lack of artistry and expression in his programs. Kozuka's seasons best is only the 6th highest amongst the men competing in Los Angeles, and his 3rd place score at the Four Continents Championships was 27.43 points lower than winner Chan and 15.39 points lower than silver medalist Lysacek.




Outlook: It remains a mystery as to why Kozuka's PCS marks from the Grand Prix Final dropped 5.75 points (3.05 for the short, 2.7 in the long) by the time Four Continents Championships rolled around, when he skated about the same overall in both competitions. This does not bode well for his medal prospects at his second World Championships, however his last trip to America certainly agreed with him when he shockingly beat both Johnny Weir and Evan Lysacek at Skate America after having finished 8th at that event the previous year. Japan's hopes for three Olympic spots still seem to be pretty secure, so Kozuka should still attempt his nemesis, the quad, until he can finally master it. With solid all-around skating, Kozuka would probably be best classified as an outside, albeit legitimate, medal contender in Los Angeles.

Part 2 to come shortly.

That is all.